Match Thread: Leinster Rugby vs Ospreys, RDS Fri 17th Jan 20:00, Sky Sports 1

molloyjh

A Good End to A Good Week?

Well I don't know about the other Leinster fans out there but I'm still on a little bit of a high given the news from today. After Cian Healy made an early return from injury on Sunday we were treated to not 1 but 2 bits of good news today. The first was that Sean O'Brien has signed a new 2 year deal with the IRFU keeping him at Leinster for the next 2 seasons and the other that Richardt Strauss, set to miss the remainder of the season due to heart surgery, has been passed fit and was named on the bench for the game tomorrow. Could it get any better?

Well yes, of course it could. Jamie could sign on the dotted line. And Leinster could end their HEC pool on a high with a victory over an opposition that has caused many an upset for Leinster players and fans alike. Ospreys may be out of the competition, but that hasn't stopped them fielding a fairly strong team anyway. They may not have had a particularly successful Heineken Cup campaign, only winning at home to Castres, but that doesn't mean they aren't capable of spoiling the party. So Leinster will need to be on their toes.

Matt O'Connor has selected a very strong side himself though with Healy, Cronin and Moore making up the front row. Healy and Cronin will both add a huge amount in terms of ball carrying and Moore should help to stabilise the Leinster scrum, which took a bit of a hammering last week until Moore and Healy came on. They'll be up against the formidable trio of Bevington, Hibbard and Jones. In the engine room Toner and McCarthy continue their partnership and appear to be nailed on as Leinster first choice locks. Toners work rate last week was fantastic and McCarthy showings over the last month in particular have stood out as he has made a real name for himself defensively as well as carried well. However the Ospreys have the edge here with Alun-Wyn Jones and Ian Evans both selected to start.

Leinsters backrow looks quite strong given the absence of SOB. Ruddock returns to the side and will look to cement his place as first choice blindside with some more powerful carries and big hits. Himself and McCarthy look very similar in defense, both incredibly effective at the choke tackle and hugely physical in the contact. Jennings comes in at openside and Heaslip captains from 8. They face off against Tipuric at openside, Ryan Jones at 8 and Canadian Tyler Ardron at blindside. Tipuric and Jones will both be a handful, but Ardron is a 22 year old who, tbh, I know nothing really about.

At half-back Matt O'Connor has stuck with Reddan and Gopperth. I'm surprised he hasn't selected Boss at scrum-half given the 5 day turnaround, but Reddan played well against Castres so we can have no complaints there. Gopperth has his hands firmly on the 10 jersey for now after his display. Ospreys have selected Webb and Biggar so again have gone with their first choice players, both of whom are arguably better than their Leinster counterparts on their day.

Outside Gopperth Leinster dominate with Darce and Drico in the centre, Fitzgerald and D Kearney on the wing and R Kearney at full back. I'm a little disappointed that O'Connor hasn't freshened things up here either. I'd have started Kirchner for D Kearney at least. But it's a very strong back line compared to the Ospreys one.

Leinsters bench too looks to have the edge. McGrath, Strauss and Ross could all have started this game with little complaints from us. Cullen seems to be slowly but surely getting back into the swing of things, while Jordi Murphy provides good versatility and impact. Locky probably misses out due to that versatility, but things don't look good for the Leinster blindside who won't get too many chances this season to turn things around. Boss as I said could have started, Madigan had a good cameo at 12 last week and Kirchner is an excellent option in the back 3. The bench does need to be utilised better than last week, when the changes to outside back were made in the dying minutes rather than early in the final quarter. With a 5 day turnaround this will be crucial.

Still, Leinster just need a LBP so you'd have to fancy that as almost a cert. Personally I think Leinster will be edging it in the first 60, but could pull away a little in the final 20 if MOC uses his bench properly. Leinster by 12-15 with us struggling to get the TBP.

|

01: Cian Healy|01: Ryan Bevington
02: Sean Cronin|02: Richard Hibbard
03: Martin Moore|03: Adam Jones
04: Devin Toner|04: Alun-Wyn Jones CAPTAIN
05: Mike McCarthy|05: Ian Evans
06: Rhys Ruddock|06: Tyler Ardron
07: Shane Jennings|07: Justin Tipuric
08: Jamie Heaslip CAPTAIN|08: Ryan Jones
|
09: Eoin Reddan|09: Rhys Webb
10: Jimmy Gopperth|10: Dan Biggar
11: Luke Fitzgerald|11: Aisea Natogo
12: Gordon D'arcy|12: Ben John
13: Brian O'Driscoll|13: Jonathan Spratt
14: Dave Kearney|14: Jeff Hassler
15: Rob Kearney|15: Sam Davies
|
16: Richardt Strauss|16: Scott Baldwin
17: Jack McGrath|17: Marc Thomas
18: Mike Ross|18: Daniel Suter
19: Leo Cullen|19: Lloyd Peers
20: Jordi Murphy|20: James King
21: Isaac Boss|21: Morgan Allen
22: Ian Madigan|22: Tom Habberfield
23: Zane Kirchner|23: Matthew Morgan

Hagz

Just learned that the Ospreys forwards coach is Jono Gibbs's brother. Bit of sibling rivalry thrown into the mix.

finatron

Ospryes 10/1 might be worth a fiver

thomond2006

Is 11-15 for Ospreys up to much?

.ak

finatron wrote: »

Ospryes 10/1 might be worth a fiver

Yeah, Ospreys massive underdogs here will suit them, and not suit us, as per usual. Although at times Schmidt really instilled that ruthless attitude hopefully we'll see it on Friday.

jamiedav2011

They're probably on top 1-5, similar enough 6-8, but bar two speedsters on the wing whom we should be able to handle, and a 10 who kicks his goals, not a huge amount in that backline.

former legend

Excellent write-up as always.

I think Reddan is the right call. Just because Joe rotated them doesn't mean MOC has to and Reddan was one of the standout performers in Castres, especially in the first half when everything else was going tits-up. Plus, the pace that Reddan (hopefully) brings might let us run the bollix off them in the first half and then our superior bench can turn the screw later on.

Speaking of the bench, it's worth noting that Ospreys have gone for a 6-2 split; Habberfield can cover SH and wing while Morgan can cover OH and FB, but this might give us an indication as to what sort of game plan the Ospreys have in mind, i.e. grind it out, keep it tight etc etc.

Buer

thomond2006 wrote: »

Is 11-15 for Ospreys up to much?

I think it could end up like that but Leinster will have to work bloody hard for it. I can see it ending up around 23-10 or something similar with Leinster moving clear in the last quarter.

That Ospreys pack and especially their breakdown work is going to give real headaches to Leinster. Guys like AWJ will want to be wrecking balls in there against someone like Leinster. Half of that pack won't play for the Ospreys again for some time and they'll want to put in a good performance especially guys like Hibbard, Tipuric and Evans who want to remind Gatland ahead of the 6N of their abilities after possibly slipping a bit.

molloyjh

Buer wrote: »

I think it could end up like that but Leinster will have to work bloody hard for it. I can see it ending up around 23-10 or something similar with Leinster moving clear in the last quarter.

That Ospreys pack and especially their breakdown work is going to give real headaches to Leinster. Guys like AWJ will want to be wrecking balls in there against someone like Leinster. Half of that pack won't play for the Ospreys again for some time and they'll want to put in a good performance especially guys like Hibbard, Tipuric and Evans who want to remind Gatland ahead of the 6N of their abilities after possibly slipping a bit.

The other side to that is the likes of AWJ looked absolutely shattered on Sunday. How long will they last this week?

salmocab

Thomond wasn't predicting a score 11-15 he was asking about the ospreys back line

Buer

molloyjh wrote: »

The other side to that is the likes of AWJ looked absolutely shattered on Sunday. How long will they last this week?

Long enough to make life tricky, I would wager, but I can see them starting to become heavy legged eventually. AWJ is a similar type of player to POC in terms of drive and work rate. For me, he's absolutely top class and probably the best lock in the NH. While I'd worry about someone like Hibbard's ability to get going again so soon, I wouldn't worry about AWJ. Guys like Hibbard and Adam Jones only played 55 and 35 minutes respectively last week though.

I'm delighted we've changed up our pack so much though and it was exactly the pack I'd have picked. Great to see such competition for spots and that we're looking to attack them in terms of their lack of depth.

irishbucsfan

I really don't know how the Ospreys are going to be able to hold onto the ball in the final 20 minutes. I really think Biggar has majorly struggled in those situations in the past.

Mahatma Geansai

Delighted to see Moore get the start. Kirchner is unlucky to miss out again. Strauss' return is a huge boost to Leinster, as Cronin's inability to hook the ball would be a huge problem going into the knockout stages.

Kayless

Mahatma Geansai wrote: »

Delighted to see Moore get the start. Kirchner is unlucky to miss out again. Strauss' return is a huge boost to Leinster, as Cronin's inability to hook the ball would be a huge problem going into the knockout stages.

Agreed. Really hoping he has a good game, with the 6 Nations right around the corner. Also will be interesting to see how Strauss gets on really happy he's back as you said it's a boost to Leinster.

If he play well any chance of a call up for Ireland? Or would the 6 nations be too early for Strauss?

Hagz

Kayless wrote: »

If he play well any chance of a call up for Ireland? Or would the 6 nations be too early for Strauss?

I think it's the norm to have three hookers so I'd imagine he'll come into the mix at some stage.

Fireball07

It's not the strongest Ospreys backline obviously, but some good players in there- Hassler & Spratt are pretty decent.

Leinster team was predictable this week though I thought Kirchner would be starting. It's hard to figure what is going on there, but how happy is he to be benching every week?

I think this is going to be a tough tight game, and I reckon like Exeter last year - Ospreys are going to go for the jugular.

I'd mostly be worried about the Ospreys set piece inside our own 22, I don't think they will make many chances otherwise and I don't rate their backs.

Jennings v Tipuric could be interesting also, Jennings looked good last week but Castre were out on their feet at that stage.

Great to see Moore starting and our bench is top drawer.

As others have said, I think this will be close - if we put a couple of scores on them it will be in the closing quarter.

I'm half hoping that Ospreys have switched off this week and don't show up. I've ruled out a home 1/4 in my mind but if we are all over them and scoring tries it will make the rest of the weekend interesting.

Swiwi.

Cheers again Molloy for the preview. I don't think anyone's mentioned that this is a big game for Jennings - he was good last week off the bench, but average at times in other games this season, so he could do with a timely reminder to MOC of his qualities. I'm annoyed ZK is not starting, but at the very least I hope he gets more than 5 token minutes. Otherwise no complaints from me with that selection.

danthefan

Swiwi. wrote: »

Cheers again Molloy for the preview. I don't think anyone's mentioned that this is a big game for Jennings - he was good last week off the bench, but average at times in other games this season, so he could do with a timely reminder to MOC of his qualities. I'm annoyed ZK is not starting, but at the very least I hope he gets more than 5 token minutes. Otherwise no complaints from me with that selection.

Also annoyed Kirchner hasn't got a start. Thought he's been really good for Leinster so far this season and he hasn't been rewarded for his performances.

Jennings' cameo last weekend has earned him the start. If he can replicate that he'll be doing alright for himself.

durkadurka

Delighted with that selection: great for Moore- against a top class front row too.
Gutted for ZK and amazed by Strauss.

We've a savage bench to spring and absolutely no reason why we shouldn't get the BP.
Can't wait for tomorrow

Noopti

Looking forward to hopefully a very ruthless, aggressive and fast paced game (especially the first 10-15 minutes). I think if we can blow them out of the water in the first 20 minutes and build up a few scores then we are in a great position to go for a BP, especially with the bench we have.

The biggest potential pitfall in that is the ref, as we will need to be super aggressive at the breakdown for the above plan to work. And if we don't get on the refs side it could result in the complete opposite - a frustrating first 20 where we concede penalties and allow Ospreys to build a score.

Going to be interesting, but I expect us to win and I think we have a decent chance of getting the BP too. Leinster by 20 if we can adapt and have the ref on our side :cool:

jamiedav2011

Yeah I'd expect a big start, or an attempt at a big start from us, and that could shape the evening really.

Similar to Exeter last year.

Gracelessly Tom

durkadurka wrote: »

Delighted with that selection: great for Moore- against a top class front row too.
Gutted for ZK and amazed by Strauss.

We've a savage bench to spring and absolutely no reason why we shouldn't get the BP.
Can't wait for tomorrow

Two reasons....

1. Roman Poite
2. Ospreys

.ak

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Two reasons....

1. Roman Poite
2. Ospreys

1 = Poite is apparently ill and won't be reffing.
2 = The OP and a few others have been saying this is a dangerous side for the Ospreys, the truth is it's probably the most injury ridden side I've seen the Ospreys send over here in the last half decade, where as we are full strength (except SOB).

If any team can put a spanner in the works it's Ospreys, so yes you're right on point 2, but the reality is if we can't put this Ospreys side to the sword we're in trouble. The only dangermen I see on the team sheet is AWJ, Adam Jones (if he gets away with cheating), Hibbard and Tips. These guys can't prop up the side by themselves. If our back row is aggressive enough we should nullify them.

I'm not going to make any assumptions, as I said - the Ospreys are always capable of making us look foolish, but if we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster.

jamiedav2011

.ak wrote: »

1 = Poite is apparently ill and won't be reffing.
2 = The OP and a few others have been saying this is a dangerous side for the Ospreys, the truth is it's probably the most injury ridden side I've seen the Ospreys send over here in the last half decade, where as we are full strength (except SOB).

If any team can put a spanner in the works it's Ospreys, so yes you're right on point 2, but the reality is if we can't put this Ospreys side to the sword we're in trouble. The only dangermen I see on the team sheet is AWJ, Adam Jones (if he gets away with cheating), Hibbard and Tips. These guys can't prop up the side by themselves. If our back row is aggressive enough we should nullify them.

I'm not going to make any assumptions, as I said - the Ospreys are always capable of making us look foolish, but if we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster.

Ah jaysus, Biggar, Jones, Evans are all top quality and they've a powerful backs too.

That last line is crazy tbh!

Gracelessly Tom

.ak wrote: »

1 = Poite is apparently ill and won't be reffing.
2 = The OP and a few others have been saying this is a dangerous side for the Ospreys, the truth is it's probably the most injury ridden side I've seen the Ospreys send over here in the last half decade, where as we are full strength (except SOB).

If any team can put a spanner in the works it's Ospreys, so yes you're right on point 2, but the reality is if we can't put this Ospreys side to the sword we're in trouble. The only dangermen I see on the team sheet is AWJ, Adam Jones (if he gets away with cheating), Hibbard and Tips. These guys can't prop up the side by themselves. If our back row is aggressive enough we should nullify them.

I'm not going to make any assumptions, as I said - the Ospreys are always capable of making us look foolish, but if we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster.

That's (potentially) good news about Poite. If he is going with you he's a great ref to have but he is ultra frustrating when he's going against you.

I fully agree about the Ospreys, I actually do think we should be beating them comfortably but they are our bogey team, they have nothing to lose in this game and nerves won't affect them so they have their usual spanner in the works potential. Not to mention that their pack is very strong and could cause serious issues.

Backline is weaker than usual but they still have some handy players in there.

sydthebeat

I fully expect a Bonus point victory.

.ak

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Ah jaysus, Biggar, Jones, Evans are all top quality and they've a powerful backs too.

That last line is crazy tbh!

Biggar is great but he's only as good as the pack infront of him. Evans is a good lock yes, I forgot to mention him, but frankly I'd rate McCarthy at the moment over him, he's on fire. As Buer said tho AWJ is probably the best lock in the business up here currently, so that kind of negates it. But frankly that is a third choice backline, and they've lost Kahn to the Saints and Tebaldi to injury. In the pack they're missing Jarvis, Lewis, Bearman They are seriously thread bare and crucially lacking a bench.

I stand by what I said, I think the Ospreys will put up a fight, but if we don't put a serious beating on these guys by the 80th minute then I'd be worried. For all of our other 'iffy' performances this year it's been against quality, first string sides. This is not a first string Ospreys side, far from it.

I'm not saying we should be getting BP win. But rather we should win comfortably in the end.

former legend

sydthebeat wrote: »

I fully expect a Bonus point victory.

Ospreys have only conceded 7 tries in the pool so far; I wouldn't expect anything but a BP is certainly within reason.

jamiedav2011

.ak wrote: »

Biggar is great but he's only as good as the pack infront of him. Evans is a good lock yes, I forgot to mention him, but frankly I'd rate McCarthy at the moment over him, he's on fire. As Buer said tho AWJ is probably the best lock in the business up here currently, so that kind of negates it. But frankly that is a third choice backline, and they've lost Kahn to the Saints and Tebaldi to injury. In the pack they're missing Jarvis, Lewis, Bearman They are seriously thread bare and crucially lacking a bench.

I stand by what I said, I think the Ospreys will put up a fight, but if we don't put a serious beating on these guys by the 80th minute then I'd be worried. For all of our other 'iffy' performances this year it's been against quality, first string sides. This is not a first string Ospreys side, far from it.

I'm not saying we should be getting BP win. But rather we should win comfortably in the end.

Yes but the pack is probably as food, if not better than ours, Ospreys are traditionally our bogey team and will hold no fear coming to the RDS.

I think we'll win, but to say 'f we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster' is pretty crazy, considering we've no idea how the Ospreys might play.

Were the 'iffy' performance against Embra, Connacht and Dragons against quality, first string sides?

.ak

Mmm, food....

ktulu123

Very nervous about this game, more so than last week. Osperys love nothing more than ruining things for us. The feckers!! Come on Leinster!!!!

Can't see us getting a BP win.

Just looking for a win please.

.ak

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Yes but the pack is probably as food, if not better than ours, Ospreys are traditionally our bogey team and will hold no fear coming to the RDS.

I think we'll win, but to say 'f we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster' is pretty crazy, considering we've no idea how the Ospreys might play.

Were the 'iffy' performance against Embra, Connacht and Dragons against quality, first string sides?

Different scenarios though. Embra, ****e conditions and we had a weak pack/team away from home. Connacht, away from home again against a team who always plays like a cup final against us and a week before the HEC when we never play out of our skin/give away anything. Dragons was early on in the season, we should be motoring now.

I think a lot of us are happy enough to state the obvious when it's other provinces up against a weakened team, but we're afraid to do it ourselves when it's our team because we don't want to have egg on their face. If this Ospreys team was playing in Thomond tonight I'd back Munster to do a job on them too. No reason why we shouldn't.

Grimebox

I have a feeling that last weeks muddling performance will galvanise the team

Six try rout please

tbm

I know is explained in numerous places elsewhere, but can someone explain the possible QF outcomes should we win? IIRC an Ulster win means we travel to Toulouse, if Ulter lose we get either Tulon or a tonking at the SMM?

ssaye2

tbm wrote: »

I know is explained in numerous places elsewhere, but can someone explain the possible QF outcomes should we win? IIRC an Ulster win means we travel to Toulouse, if Ulter lose we get either Tulon or a tonking at the SMM?

Love the optimism

French team away is quite likely but its best just to wait until the last game is played as the results could change over the weekend.

In anyway no team will want to play Leinster either regardless of where it is held imo.

jamiedav2011

.ak wrote: »

Different scenarios though. Embra, ****e conditions and we had a weak pack/team away from home. Connacht, away from home again against a team who always plays like a cup final against us and a week before the HEC when we never play out of our skin/give away anything. Dragons was early on in the season, we should be motoring now.

I think a lot of us are happy enough to state the obvious when it's other provinces up against a weakened team, but we're afraid to do it ourselves when it's our team because we don't want to have egg on their face. If this Ospreys team was playing in Thomond tonight I'd back Munster to do a job on them too. No reason why we shouldn't.

Ah that's at best just subjective on the different scenarios, at worst shifting the goalposts to suit a point. I could just as easily give reasons why we might struggle tonight like you've done above!

This Ospreys pack is way above anything that's in the Munster group.

Again I say, 'if we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster' is way over the top given the context and makeup of the Ospreys pack.

This'll be a tough slog for 50 mins probably and then we should pull away.

ssaye2

Just looking back at the last 10 games we have played against Ospreys, jesus it makes for hard reading. Hope MOC can have some plays or something different to what has gone before. Without SOB too it makes for grim reading regarding the backrow battle we have against them.

If we win I am giving Jennings MOTM regardless. :pac:

tbm

ssaye2 wrote: »

Love the optimism

French team away is quite likely but its best just to wait until the last game is played as the results could change over the weekend.

In anyway no team will want to play Leinster either regardless of where it is held imo.

Yeah, best wait I guess. Been playing around with that QF calculator yoke. It's all very tight!

Ah if any team can win at the SMM is us, just cause we give them the willies. Would rather not go there though!

.ak

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

Ah that's at best just subjective on the different scenarios, at worst shifting the goalposts to suit a point. I could just as easily give reasons why we might struggle tonight like you've done above!

This Ospreys pack is way above anything that's in the Munster group.

Again I say, 'if we don't put them to the sword there's serious question marks to be asked of Leinster' is way over the top given the context and makeup of the Ospreys pack.

This'll be a tough slog for 50 mins probably and then we should pull away.

Well, that's all I was saying in my posts? Maybe we're just arguing on semantics here.

P.S: I'm right.

P_1

Are the Ospreys still massive fans of the blitz defence? In that case a few early kicks behind them may well soften their cough

Pudsy33

Ospreys are the bogey team. I'll be very surprised if this isn't close.

.ak

P_1 wrote: »

Are the Ospreys still massive fans of the blitz defence? In that case a few early kicks behind them may well soften their cough

An O's fan on LF reckons the backline are all pretty weak under high ball, especially the midfield. Might be worth testing them out with dinks and a few garryowens.

Larbre34

Id say a tight and tense first 30 mins, with our kickers gaining territory and squeezing the energy out of them a bit by 60. Adam Jones will upset a few scrums early on but he has no juice beyond 50 so we'll just have to wear that.

In the end id say we'll be looking at 4 match points rather than five, but the atmosphere should be top drawer, bit of a carnival after the SOB news, and Id say Straussy will get some ovation even warming up, as deserved.

Going for Leinster 25-13 Ospreys and búgger I forgot to record it....

awec

Is there a scenario where Leinster qualify as 8th seeds?

danthefan

awec wrote: »

Is there a scenario where Leinster qualify as 8th seeds?

I think if Connacht beat Saracens, Leinster get nothing, and Northampton win with a BP then it might be possible.

awec

danthefan wrote: »

I think if Connacht beat Saracens, Leinster get nothing, and Northampton win with a BP then it might be possible.

Very unlikely then.

.ak

awec wrote: »

Is there a scenario where Leinster qualify as 8th seeds?

It'd be funny if it did happen, and Ulster ended up 1st seeds...

Larbre34

As touched on yesterday there is a few permutations where either Leinster and Munster or Leinster and Ulster may end up facing each other in successive weeks in the two competitions. The marketing departments will be in overdrive!

Little bit of a wildcard for tonight, distinct chance of very dense fog in the RDS by kick-off, maybe a disadvantage for kicking and chasing

ssaye2

BOD's last Heineken Cup match in RDS - Just reading kissanes twitter

Mad to think.