Leopardstown 29th Dec

jimjamcos

2.00: Our Conor @ 5/2 - Hurricane Fly and Jezki have to be respected but if OC has made the improvement you'd expect, he'll take all the beating tomorrow. The likes of Diakali have came out and ran very good races since the Triumph. Jockey a slight concern but even he seems to be improving. Hughes seems confident enough in his recent interviews.

3.05: Bright New Dawn @ 7/2 - Lovely big horse. Fine performance lto giving Dogora 12lbs and step up in trip should suit. Morning Assembly has to be respected on his beating of Don Cossack, the fact that Ruby is so bullish about him and that conveniently enough Balycasey doesn't run. I think Bright New Dawn will end up Gigginstown's top RSA hope though and a better battler than Don Cossack.

Singles & Double

Ray Mond

Ill have to go against u on both with The Fly and Morning Assembly double.

jimjamcos

Ray Mond wrote: »

Ill have to go against u on both with The Fly and Morning Assembly double.

Haha good choice! :P

I know many are saying Hurricane Fly looked heavy before his last run but while he'll come on for it, just couldn't be backing him tomorrow. Mullins has said there's only one day he's being trained for this season and I think that may hold true. I'd be happy to oppose him with either of the other 2 tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Will only have one bet tomorrow I'll get up early to get a price on Pencilhimin at Limerick could be a gamble.

SRFC

UrbanSea wrote: »

Will only have one bet tomorrow I'll get up early to get a price on Pencilhimin at Limerick could be a gamble.

Yeah hes the brother to war of attrition,remember him bolting up in limerick about a year ago in a bog,he was going very well with geraghty on it a while ago and went through a hurdle,theres a race in him alright.


The mares race in Leopardstown looks good.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

Yeah hes the brother to war of attrition,remember him bolting up in limerick about a year ago in a bog,he was going very well with geraghty on it a while ago and went through a hurdle,theres a race in him alright.


The mares race in Leopardstown looks good.

You backing HF? He's a nice price considering he was a 8/11 poke antepost

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

You backing HF? He's a nice price considering he was a 8/11 poke antepost

Yeah not an all in job though,jezkis form got a decent form boost today with zaidpour winning handily,HF loves that ground aswell can see OC making it and just getting collared.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

Yeah not an all in job though,jezkis form got a decent form boost today with zaidpour winning handily,HF loves that ground aswell can see OC making it and just getting collared.

Been plenty of money for Jezki but wouldn't read too much into Zaidpours race today - other 2 set it up for him.


Hurricane Fly - Only ever beaten once in Ireland by a class horse (when not right).

Our Conor - Unbeaten over hurdles.

Jezki - Unbeaten over hurdles in Ireland.


Carlsberg don't do races but if they did...

Ray Mond

jimjamcos wrote: »

Haha good choice! :P

I know many are saying Hurricane Fly looked heavy before his last run but while he'll come on for it, just couldn't be backing him tomorrow. Mullins has said there's only one day he's being trained for this season and I think that may hold true. I'd be happy to oppose him with either of the other 2 tomorrow.

I dont think Jezki will be in the top 2. I just love HF and he loves the ground and the track.
Will only have a small bet tho.

ste2010

Afrer seeing what came from the triumph form. I'd be inclined to side with hurricane fly. I think jezki could be good, but I wasn't convinced by his run the other day.
If a gun was put to my head...I'd pick hurricane fly and morning assemvly

jimjamcos

Just reading The Star here and Davy tips up Morning Assembly saying:

Morning Assembly has been mightily impressive this season and is providing Pat Fahy with some long-overdue high-profile success. My mount Bright New Dawn is a real nice horse and didn't put a foot wrong at Punchestown, but I can't see beyond Morning Assembly, who looks a good antepost bet for the RSA at this stage"

Slightly regretting backing BND now! :pac:

He also tips up Hurricane Fly and Jezki to push him all the way.

Harry Angstrom

5/4 about Hurricane Fly is a great price. He should come on a fair bit from his Punchestown run. There will be no excuses if he's beaten. Our Conor could run a good race and still get beaten by Hurricane Fly, with Dessie Hughes probably saying afterwards that he needed the run after his setback. Jezki doesn't impress me at all. He made very heavy weather of it at Fairyhouse last time.

prettyboy81

jimjamcos wrote: »

Been plenty of money for Jezki but wouldn't read too much into Zaidpours race today - other 2 set it up for him.


Hurricane Fly - Only ever beaten once in Ireland by a class horse (when not right).

Our Conor - Unbeaten over hurdles.

Jezki - Unbeaten over hurdles in Ireland.


Carlsberg don't do races but if they did...

Perfect statement Jim. So many possible outcomes 2mo but one can assume Thousand Stars albeit a good quality animal will set out in front to make it an honest 2mile race.

I can see all 3 coming to the last all still on the bridle & if that's the case then we are in for a classic finish.

I'll be in The Champs corner, Hurricane Fly!

oPATCHo

It's going to be a festinating race. I'm tempted to keep on the side of The Fly, hopefully he'll show the new kids how its done

Motivator

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

5/4 about Hurricane Fly is a great price. He should come on a fair bit from his Punchestown run. There will be no excuses if he's beaten. Our Conor could run a good race and still get beaten by Hurricane Fly, with Dessie Hughes probably saying afterwards that he needed the run after his setback. Jezki doesn't impress me at all. He made very heavy weather of it at Fairyhouse last time.

Jezki is an out & out 2 miler. Beat a good horse in Zaidpour over a distance he was running over for the first time. Hurricane Fly was hardly that impressive in the Morgiana was he? Jezki is a ridiculously underrated horse, he won't be at 2.10 tomorrow.

prettyboy81

Straight Tricast Hurricane Fly, Our Conor & Jezki.

oPATCHo

Hurricane Fly, Jezki & Our Conor

jimjamcos

Our Conor, Jezki, De FLY

ste2010

Interesting point re turning the race into a genuine race tomorrow. Hurricane fly at leopardstown is phenomenal. Hard to get away from jezkis turn of foot. The last thing Mullins would want is a sprint. He really needs jezki to be off the bridle on the bend. It'll be a cracking race it's hard to ignore. Not sure what to make of our Conor..

SRFC

Lets not forget connections of Jezki dodged HF the last day,Our Conor could be anything I dont know what to think of him nothing flukes a triumph win by half the track,hes no great sheikh on the flat which surprised me how well hes taken to hurdling wouldnt be surprised with any result tomorrow maybe just a race to watch and enjoy.

oPATCHo

I'm finding it very difficult to place Our Conor atm, then again we'll find out tomorrow :-)

I'm still very much a The Fly & TNO for the Champ Hurdle... but have question marks all over Our Conor.

Motivator

ste2010 wrote: »

Interesting point re turning the race into a genuine race tomorrow. Hurricane fly at leopardstown is phenomenal. Hard to get away from jezkis turn of foot. The last thing Mullins would want is a sprint. He really needs jezki to be off the bridle on the bend. It'll be a cracking race it's hard to ignore. Not sure what to make of our Conor..

Spot on. Will Hurricane Fly be able to get the other 2 off the bit around the town? Unless Jezki loses a leg down the back straight then he'll be beside Hurricane fly & he will do him for pace. I'm not a bit worried about Hurricane Fly to be honest but Our Conor has got question marks & nobody knows what kind of a horse he'll turn into. How much can he improve? In my opinion the only horse with no question marks is Jezki. The money is coming for him but I don't think the betting will change too much more. I reckon there'll be serious money for Hurricane Fly & Our Conor & hopefully Jezki will take a nice drift before he hacks in.

Clonsuttonlad

I've a feeling Our Conor will not live up to what has been expected of him.
He originally cost 4,500 and on breeding he will have to be a real freak to beat hurricane fly or Jetski.

However these things do happen look at beef or Salmon. Hurricane Fly was just as mediocre on the flat. The Triumph was very crap last year too.

And I was right about Morning Assembly going off evens.

ste2010

Other plot types in interested in are

Bescott springs in Kelso (owner lives close by)
Watch to see if money comes for zekarya or boherna lady tomorrow. Dennis hogan loves a winner at limerick

jimjamcos

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

I've a feeling Our Conor will not live up to what has been expected of him.
He originally cost 4,500 and on breeding he will have to be a real freak to beat hurricane fly or Jetski.

However these things do happen look at beef or Salmon. Hurricane Fly was just as mediocre on the flat. The Triumph was very crap last year too.

And I was right about Morning Assembly going off evens.

Far West, Diakali, Sametegal and Rolling Star have all came out and ran decent races so was hardly a "crap" race.

Ballycasey not running helped the latter.

nobody told me

Upsie looked a right mule the last day in cork, pulling herself up and she can't jump either. Will be having a right cut on the other Mullins mare urticare who looked above average last time.

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

Upsie looked a right mule the last day in cork, pulling herself up and she can't jump either. Will be having a right cut on the other Mullins mare urticare who looked above average last time.

Russell tipped his own in paper today.

nobody told me

jimjamcos wrote: »

Russell tipped his own in paper today.

What did he say if you can remember?

Clonsuttonlad

Lads please don't be so silly as to listen to Jockey tips!

jimjamcos

nobody told me wrote: »

What did he say if you can remember?

Not much:

Two Gigginstown horses with great chances tomorrow are Rockdown(1.30) and Urticaire(2.35), the latter can edge past Willie Mullins Upsie.

jimjamcos

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Lads please don't be so silly as to listen to Jockey tips!

I'm not backing the horse FWIW but surely no harm in telling another poster that the jock fancies his pick. nobody told me clearly fancied the horse before I told him of Russell's words so he's not simply following a jockeys tip

Clonsuttonlad

Yeah I know Russell talks alot of bull but he's not as bad as Rubi Power:)

Ive always Noticed jockeys tend to talk up their own mounts. Just look at their Cheltenham naps from the last two seasons.

Ya see the most recent PP video with our most cherished Jock, mentions Just a Par as his main horse to follow:)

Francie Barrett

I was on course at Leopardstown the day that Our Conor battered the Mullins runners into submission and even though I was on him that day, I just can't back the horse tomorrow. Hurricane Fly is the pre-eminent hurdler of his age and if you strip out the romanticism, then surely the Fly is just too strong tomorrow.

Motivator

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

I've a feeling Our Conor will not live up to what has been expected of him.
He originally cost 4,500 and on breeding he will have to be a real freak to beat hurricane fly or Jetski.

However these things do happen look at beef or Salmon. Hurricane Fly was just as mediocre on the flat. The Triumph was very crap last year too.

And I was right about Morning Assembly going off evens.

People are getting carried away with the Triumph Hurdle run. What are people basing their assumption that he'll improve on? I heard 3 fellas talking in the bookies today saying he's unbeatable, I asked why & they said "did you not see what he did at Cheltenham?" They repeated it when I asked is that all they were going on when they class him as unbeatable. Unreal what some people come out with. Same applies to Hurricane Fly, a lot of people can't give a valid reason why they think he'll win tomorrow. All they can say is "sure he's the Fly". I'm not saying people on here are talking the same bull****, but there's a lot more to racing than seeing a horse & saying "he'll win" & then of the horse does then they'll run around saying how right they were.

Sorry about the rant but I need a few days away from the fiver punters that seem to inhabit bookies these days. Horrible places to be. Twice today I missed a price on a horse because I was held up by an idiot who was arguing at the counter over being a few seconds late for his €2 bet on a cartoon in Sprint Valley. The level of rubbish being spoken in shops these days & the carry on wouldn't have been tolerated in bookies a few years ago.

Anyway, Morning Assembly & Jezki double tomorrow for me. I have a holiday I've been meaning to book & hopefully I'll have it paid for tomorrow...and also, down with virtual racing & all the deadbeats who back it.

Clonsuttonlad

All over Jetski tomorrow, see he's been pricewised too.
Will have a MAX BET on this one!

Will do Morning Assembly in the double!

Francie Barrett

Motivator wrote: »

All they can say is "sure he's the Fly".

Whatever about Our Conor being unexposed, Hurricane Fly is a legendary hurdler who has not yet shown a chink in its armour. I won't be going anywhere near this race, but if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose between HF at 5/4 or Jezki at 5/2, I would have to say HF every time.

jimjamcos

Wasn't there somebody on here earlier saying Tracy Piggott pushed Elliott for a tip today and he gave Fort Smith in tomorrow's bumper with a wry smile? Well, just after reading on another site a reliable poster claim to have proper word for him:

Just got a text from a solid source and the story goes that Fort Smith pounded No more heros in a schooling bumper last week or the week before.Yard expect him to win and he has already being backed from 4/1 into 5/2

This is not my 'info' but just said I'd pass it on as the poster is shrewd and not one to bullshit. Make of it what you will but I've had a bet with PP @ 5/2.

SRFC

Pulled it out the other day to let his other horse have a free run at that bumper,O'Leary will want a winner on Ryanair day.

Clonsuttonlad

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Whatever about Our Conor being unexposed, Hurricane Fly is a legendary hurdler who has not yet shown a chink in its armour. I won't be going anywhere near this race, but if you put a gun to my head and forced me to choose between HF at 5/4 or Jezki at 5/2, I would have to say HF every time.

Being turned over by ROR and OVERTURN at 4/6 on with no excuses, is a big chink if you ask me. Best bookies result in Chelt in the last 10
years.

SRFC

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Being turned over by ROR and OVERTURN at 4/6 on with no excuses, is a big chink if you ask me. Best bookies result in Chelt in the last 10
years.

Not this arguement again,clearly wasnt himself that day butchered to beat zaidpour in punchestown a complete mess of a season,rock on ruby hasnt and never would beat him again,or did binocular.

gudede

SRFC wrote: »

Not this arguement again,clearly wasnt himself that day butchered to beat zaidpour in punchestown a complete mess of a season,rock on ruby hasnt and never would beat him again,or did binocular.

Sure Hurricane Fly is never right when he beat...what a joke. The horse deserved to lose those times and coming out saying he's not right after a race is a joke and Mullins/Ruby should be embarrassed.

Hears my two pence on the Leopardstown race tomorrow. But if you fancy Hurricane Fly tomorrow then I would recommend taking the current price of 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle before the race because whoever wins this race will be anti post favourite. This is a cracking race in the lead up to the Champion Hurdle in March and I hope Jezki can take the victory for McCoy and Harrington.

Jezki has won three times at Leapardstown, two bumpers and a novice hurdle race at last years Christmas meeting (beating Champagne Fever). Jezki only ever lost two hurdle races, the first been his first run over hurdles and the second was the supreme novice’s hurdle at Cheltenham. The main reason he lost at Cheltenham was race fitness as that was the first time the horse ran since winning at Leopardstown last Christmas (this is a stat for the supreme novice’s hurdle). Since the supreme novice’s hurdle five other horses have gone on to win races over hurdles and fences (Champagne Fever, My Tent or Yours, Un Atout, Dodging Bullets and Pique Sous), so the race does look like a very hot race. Currently My Tent or Yours is joint favourite for Champion Hurdle and Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets are well fancied for the Arkle.

Hurricane Fly has won at Leopardstown six times but I would question what he beat in those races. Solwhit I don’t really rate (world hurdle last year was a joke of a race and Aintree race he won wasn’t much better) and I think Thousand Star’s was always a 2m 4 horse. I feel Jezki is a lot better horse compared to anything Hurricane Fly has faced in Ireland. No nine year old ever won this race but I wouldn't rule out Hurricane Fly because of this but he only won by just over one length last time out were he should be beating Marito and Mikael D’Haguenet by much more.

I love Our Conner has he was my first ever winner I had, when been in attendance at Cheltenham but I just think the long lay off he had since then isn’t a good thing. Our Conner will come on for the race but he will also need to improve from last year.

I backed Jezki at 4/1 yesterday (currently backed into 11/4 best price) and at this price he was the bet of the race.

mr.jingle

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Being turned over by ROR and OVERTURN at 4/6 on with no excuses, is a big chink if you ask me. Best bookies result in Chelt in the last 10
years.

Going back a year and a half for that bit of form that was the last time he was beat, are you for real! If your taking that as form, Zaidpour was beaten a right few lengths that day by Hurricane Fly, Jezki comes out and wins by a length and a half from the same horse but sure you go all the way back to that form as your reason for not backing Hurricane Fly and yet you fancy Jezki! Mind boggling. Your reasons for backing Jezki are simply ludicrous.

I would love to see the 3 of them close together coming to the last all ping it and battle to the line, think Hurricane would grind them down at the finish just like he did to Solwhit at Punchestown. For Our Conors sake i just hope he runs him close if not beating him

nevis7

good day for punters, bad for layers.
lost, won, won, lost,lost,lost,lost. final result loss.
best days volume in a long time.

another battle set for tomorrow. the short one I want to oppose is morning assembly, getting him beat will be the difference between a good or bad day.

SRFC

gudede wrote: »

Sure Hurricane Fly is never right when he beat...what a joke. The horse deserved to lose those times and coming out saying he's not right after a race is a joke and Mullins/Ruby should be embarrassed.

Hears my two pence on the Leopardstown race tomorrow. But if you fancy Hurricane Fly tomorrow then I would recommend taking the current price of 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle before the race because whoever wins this race will be anti post favourite. This is a cracking race in the lead up to the Champion Hurdle in March and I hope Jezki can take the victory for McCoy and Harrington.

Jezki has won three times at Leapardstown, two bumpers and a novice hurdle race at last years Christmas meeting (beating Champagne Fever). Jezki only ever lost two hurdle races, the first been his first run over hurdles and the second was the supreme novice’s hurdle at Cheltenham. The main reason he lost at Cheltenham was race fitness as that was the first time the horse ran since winning at Leopardstown last Christmas (this is a stat for the supreme novice’s hurdle). Since the supreme novice’s hurdle five other horses have gone on to win races over hurdles and fences (Champagne Fever, My Tent or Yours, Un Atout, Dodging Bullets and Pique Sous), so the race does look like a very hot race. Currently My Tent or Yours is joint favourite for Champion Hurdle and Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets are well fancied for the Arkle.

Hurricane Fly has won at Leopardstown six times but I would question what he beat in those races. Solwhit I don’t really rate (world hurdle last year was a joke of a race and Aintree race he won wasn’t much better) and I think Thousand Star’s was always a 2m 4 horse. I feel Jezki is a lot better horse compared to anything Hurricane Fly has faced in Ireland. No nine year old ever won this race but I wouldn't rule out Hurricane Fly because of this but he only won by just over one length last time out were he should be beating Marito and Mikael D’Haguenet by much more.

I love Our Conner has he was my first ever winner I had, when been in attendance at Cheltenham but I just think the long lay off he had since then isn’t a good thing. Our Conner will come on for the race but he will also need to improve from last year.

I backed Jezki at 4/1 yesterday (currently backed into 11/4 best price) and at this price he was the bet of the race.

Yeah because that champion hurdle run was his running alright where he was behind rock on ruby over turn and binocular :rolleyes: no evidence to prove thats was his running considering he smashed them any other time he met them,pure fluke of a race won by ROR as proved by subsequent running of ROR and HF against each other,the mug HF doubters are out again I love taking your money lads keeping laying him :cool:

th hen

Word from Fahys yard is morning assembly won't be beat. Could be famous last words but in a grade 1 chase can you be sure that your horse won't be beat.

jimjamcos

As long as all 3 horses run to their best, it won't really bother me who wins regardless of whether I lose money on Our Conor.

If the two young guns run to form and Hurricane Fly beats them well then he'll have cemented his legendary status even further. If Hurricane Fly runs to his best and one of young guns beats him well then we've a new superstar and the Irish will be in a great position to take the Champion Hurdle again.

I'm just hoping there's no hardluck stories or massive underperformance really.

gudede

SRFC wrote: »

Yeah because that champion hurdle run was his running alright where he was behind rock on ruby over turn and binocular :rolleyes: no evidence to prove thats was his running considering he smashed them any other time he met them,pure fluke of a race won by ROR as proved by subsequent running of ROR and HF against each other,the mug HF doubters are out again I love taking your money lads keeping laying him :cool:

The major reason he lost that time was because Ruby showed no respect to anyone in the field. There was a reason why Ruby rode a lot closer to the front a year later.

SRFC

gudede wrote: »

The major reason he lost that time was because Ruby showed no respect to anyone in the field. There was a reason why Ruby rode a lot closer to the front a year later.

Didnt perform sure he was hard pushed to beat zaidpour that season and didnt make his debut till january clearly wasnt himself,and rubbishing solwhit is poor form the horse would have won about 10 grade ones only for hf.

Clonsuttonlad

Race of the year so far! If HF loses that's him finished. He hasn't looked himself ( visually impressive) since he bet Peddlers. I personally haven't liked the horse since his no show against ROR. (very suspect )

Slattsy

Sorry for posting.

Jezki is the CH winner so get him backed before tomorrow. Then start laying Our Conor progressively as I've suggested all year.

Your welcome. Bye now.

Harry Angstrom

Clonsuttonlad wrote: »

Race of the year so far! If HF loses that's him finished. He hasn't looked himself ( visually impressive) since he bet Peddlers. I personally haven't liked the horse since his no show against ROR. (very suspect )

I hope you haven't been opposing him every time he's run since his "no show" against Rock On Ruby, seeing as he's won his next 7 races on the trot - all of them Grade Ones......