Champions league qualification.

dr ro

Almost half way through the season now and there appears to be a definite top 5, possibly top 8 emerging from the pack. 8th seems a long way back to go but it's so tight that a win here loss there could dramatically change things plus it would be foolish to write off utd at such an early stage, much as I would like to, as a pool fan!
It occurred to me earlier as I listened hoping Everton would drop points to Southhampton that it's not inconceivable that Everton and Liverpool could finish in the top 4. But at who's expense? Personally I'd love to see Utd and Chelsea drop out. Over at the Utd forum, there is popular opinion that a top 4 finish is not only expected but still not even an issue. There was even a post convinced that Utd will still win the league.

I'm thinking it'll be:

1. Man City
2. Liverpool
3. Arsenal
4. Chelsea

I'm hoping:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3. City
4. Everton

What way do you think it'll finish? And who do you support?

City are certs I'd say. After that it's up for grabs imo.

Lverpool are top but could be 5th next Sunday!

It's insanely close. Makes for an exciting finish.

GLaDOS

Hard to see either Man City or Arsenal dropping out imo. Arsenal have been very consistent while City's home form has been lethal and I think they will sort out the away form enough to make top 4 easily enough. Decent chance of both going out in the next round in Europe and will focus on the league then.

If Liverpool hold onto Suarez and keep him fit (and avoid long suspensions!) I can see them getting in too. No european distraction could really help too.

Chelsea have the talent in their squad, though they definitely need a better option up front. Expected more of Mouinho's men this season I must admit. Might step it up another gear after Christmas.

United have traditionally been very strong the 2nd half of the season, but all bets are off this year it seems. I think their activity in the January transfer window will make a big difference as to whether they can make it or not.

Everton have really impressed me this season, but I'm not sure they have the squad depth to maintain a top 4 challenge.

They might surprise me but there's too much upheaval at Spurs for them to sneak in there.

So I predict:

Arsenal
City
Chelsea
Liverpool

With the bottom two and United scrapping it out for the last 2 spots to the death.

kryogen

1. City
2. Chelsea
3. United
4. Arsenal
5. Liverpool
6. Spurs
7. Everton
8. Newcastle
9. Stoke
10. Swansea

The_Kew_Tour

City
Liverpool
Chelsea
Man United.(just ahead of Everton)

Arsenal fans might have right laugh at May time, but after last week I think things are going to turn a little sore at Arsenal.

By this time next week we will have a clearer picture though.

Same as last year, but in a different order.

So, United, City, Arsenal, Chelsea.

Alfred Borden

Think it will be the same four as usual years, be tight between united and pool though, similar to arsenal and tottenham of recent years

1. chelsea
2. city
3. arsenal
4. united
5. liverpool
6. everton

Moneymaker

Clearly Newcastle will win the league, only 6 points off sure that's only two games. :pac::pac::pac:

I think after January is when you can really say, if Arsenal pick up a world class striker to help out Giroud they can win the league imo.

Right now i'd say City are in a good position however they do still have to travel away to quite a few of the teams around them.

The league is there to be won by any of them. Whoever does the best business in January and really pushes on can win it.

Suarez could be the tipping point.

Hangballlouie

kryogen wrote: »

1. City
2. Chelsea
3. United
4. Arsenal
5. Liverpool
6. Spurs
7. Everton
8. Newcastle
9. Stoke
10. Swansea

Swap spurs and everton and this would be mine.

EuropeanSon

City will get their **** together and win it. Arsenal second (1st if City fail to get their **** together away from home). Pool and Chelsea will probably round out the top 4, but Everton or Utd (even maybe Spurs) could push them.


I'd guess:
1. City
2. Arsenal
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Utd
6. Everton
7. Spurs
8. Newcastle

kryogen

hangballlouie wrote: »

Swap spurs and everton and this would be mine.

I have a feeling Spurs will get more consistent as the season goes on and the players get to know each other better. They aren't exactly doing badly now

I would be tempted to put Everton a little lower but think they will just hang on to 7th. They are riding a wave at the moment, they will break at some stage is my hunch and lose a few, they have only lost once so far this seasons, incredible start. I expect them to have lost at least 7 games by the end of the season though

rob316

Cant call it its ridiculously tight man city the only cert for me after that it could be any of the top 6. Im still expecting the same 4 as last year though but hoping Liverpool will sneak it.

CSF

City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea for me. Not necessarily in that order but that'd be my first guess.

LiamoSail

In no particular order, I think the top three will be city, Chelsea and Arsenal. City & Chelsea have too much quality to fall away, while Arsenal are a settled side, with the best midfield in the league and have never, under Wenger, finished outside the CL places, you can't ignore that stat IMO. Beyond that, its a four horse race for forth; Liverpool, Everton, United & Spurs

Everton's run of games over the next few weeks is as handy as you're likely to get in the league; Stoke, Southampton, Sunderland, West Brom & Norwich. If they can go on a good run there, they could well be top two by the time they play Liverpool at the end of January.

The issue they have is the lack of depth, and a reliance on loan players that could be costly when they're ineligible. Going into the final third of the season, when the squad is stretched, they'll also have to play al the top 8, though in their favour, most have to come to Goodison

I think Spurs will fall away, given the instability at the club. Sherwood' has said he's not willing to be a number two, so either its further changes there, or a completely inexperienced manager incharge, coupled with a squad that barely no each other and no settled system

Which is why I think it will come down to United & Liverpool for forth.

LiamoSail

The odds:

Mcfc 1/20
Afc 1/6
Cfc 1/6
Lfc 4/7
MUFC 5/4
Efc 5/2
THFC 4/1
Nufc 33/1

The bookies favour Liverpool over united, but there's the usual Liverpool tax on that price

dr ro

LiamoSail wrote: »

The odds:

Mcfc 1/20
Afc 1/6
Cfc 1/6
Lfc 4/7
MUFC 5/4
Efc 5/2
THFC 4/1
Nufc 33/1

The bookies favour Liverpool over united, but there's the usual Liverpool tax on that price

Delusion tax?

kryogen

LiamoSail wrote: »

The odds:

Mcfc 1/20
Afc 1/6
Cfc 1/6
Lfc 4/7
MUFC 5/4
Efc 5/2
THFC 4/1
Nufc 33/1

The bookies favour Liverpool over united, but there's the usual Liverpool tax on that price

If your having a bet you can get better odds slightly on some of them, Liverpool for example can be got at 4/6

LiamoSail

kryogen wrote: »

If your having a bet you can get better odds slightly on some of them, Liverpool for example can be got at 4/6

I just copied that from PP for convenience. Personally, I haven't the patience to back outrights

mike65

Shamelessly stolen from RAWK

Liverpool

at home of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Newcastle, Everton
away of the current Top 10 have - Man City, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Stoke

City

at home of the current Top 10 have - Liverpool, Chelsea, Southampton and Stoke
away of the current Top 10 have - Arsenal, Everton, Man Utd, Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool

Chelsea

at home of the current Top 10 have - Liverpool, Man Utd, Newcastle, Stoke, Tottenham, Everton
away of the current Top 10 have - Arsenal, Liverpool, City, Southampton

Arsenal

at home of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, City, Man Utd
away of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Southampton, Stoke, Tottenham

Man Utd

at home of the current Top 10 have - Liverpool, City, Tottenham
away of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, Everton, Newcastle, Southampton, Stoke, Arsenal

Everton

at home of the current Top 10 have - Arsenal, City, Man Utd
away of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle, Southampton, Stoke, Tottenham

Tottenham

at home of the current Top 10 have - Arsenal, Everton, City, Southampton
away of the current Top 10 have - Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd, Newcastle, Stoke

obviously any team can stumble against any team but it shows the home/away balance with regard to the "more difficult" fixtures

Liverpool have Chelsea and City away too Mike!

Ganymede Glow

Very hard to predict, however if Liverpool come out of the next two games unbeaten I think it will be

Man City
Arsenal
Liverpool
Chelsea

mike65

That guy at RAWK is an idiot! edited!

Ganymede Glow

mike65 wrote: »

That guy at RAWK is an idiot! edited!

City and Chelsea have Liverpool at home Mike

rob316

Very interesting that, everyone has to go to anfield and arsenal have everywhere to go. Some decent teams are gunna miss out anyway that'd for sure

K-9

Spurs would be the best bet there but I'd have them down for 6th. City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, United, Spurs and Everton. A couple of weeks ago some were saying Arsenal were certs for 4th but barring City, I don't think there are any. Everton and Liverpool have a lot of home games against the top 8 to come which is an advantage for the outsiders at the start of the season.

CSF

I think alot of people are selling Liverpool seriously short. With Suarez staying, that 4/7 looks like phenomenal value.

Ganymede Glow

What would happen if lets say one of Chelsea/Arsenal/City/United won the Champions League but finished fourth? Would the third placed team have to go through the qualifiers?

CSF

Ganymede Glow wrote: »

What would happen if lets say one of Chelsea/Arsenal/City/United won the Champions League but finished fourth? Would the third placed team have to go through the qualifiers?

I think so yeah. Probably not too much danger of that happening this year. The 2 most likely English competitors are up against the 2 most likely to win it already.

K-9

Spurs would be the best bet there but I'd have them down for 6th. City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, United, Spurs and Everton. A couple of weeks ago some were saying Arsenal were certs for 4th but barring City, I don't think there are any. Liverpool have a lot of home games against the top 8 to come which is an advantage for the outsiders at the start of the season. Play City and Chelsea away in the next week, after that it's a good fixture list for the second half of the season.

GLaDOS

Ganymede Glow wrote: »

What would happen if lets say one of Chelsea/Arsenal/City/United won the Champions League but finished fourth? Would the third placed team have to go through the qualifiers?

Didn't Arsenal have to go through the qualifiers when Chelsea won despite coming 3rd?

Agueroooo

mike65 wrote: »

That guy at RAWK is an idiot! edited!

Also did Utd play City away yet?

kryogen

Agueroooo wrote: »

Also did Utd play City away yet?

That would be a yes

A Dub in Glasgo

I'm going for Celtic after 3 qualifying rounds

kryogen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I'm going for Celtic after 3 qualifying rounds

When did they join the league down south?

Iused2likebusts

Id go
City
arsenal
chelsea
utd
liverpool
everton
spurs.
No european games Im hoping will just edge liverpool ahead of utd but I think utd will just pip liverpool.
Providing utd get past olympiacos there will be up to 6/7 league games either side of those cl games that get that bit harder because of CL duty. One of those being against liverpool.

nice_guy80

When do Liverpool start playing a few decent teams?

cause thats when the wheels will fall off

LiamoSail

nice_guy80 wrote: »

When do Liverpool start playing a few decent teams?

cause thats when the wheels will fall off

City and Chelsea next. That's the half way point then

A Dub in Glasgo

kryogen wrote: »

When did they join the league down south?

They did not, the thread is titled 'Champions league qualification'. I do find it funny when people in this forum expect football revolves around the EPL

The_Kew_Tour

Liverpool have decent enough record at Stamford Bridge.

Think they will get result against Chelsea.

If they get result against City they be right there.

They will have Arsenal, City, Chelsea and Everton at home in 2nd half of season.

Iused2likebusts

nice_guy80 wrote: »

When do Liverpool start playing a few decent teams?

cause thats when the wheels will fall off

in 2 more games we will be halfway through the season and everyone will have played everyone. Worst case scenario 36 pts from 19 games. Do that again in the next 19 games and they will go very close. Bar utd all the CL rivals have to come to anfield meaning on paper they have some of the easier teams away. Whether or not that is a good thing Im not sure. This season liverpool have (unlike previous seasons) been steamrolling the so called easier teams at home while struggling a bit away. Due to the fixtures you would imagine they will need to be winning more away games in the second half of the season as it will be harder to win the home games.

nice_guy80

I still don't think Liverpool are a great team, I may be proved wrong though.

If Suarez gets injured they will struggle.

mike65

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I still don't think Liverpool are a great team, I may be proved wrong though.

If Suarez gets injured they will struggle.

Could do, or could average 2 PPG like when he was banned.

kryogen

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

They did not, the thread is titled 'Champions league qualification'. I do find it funny when people in this forum expect football revolves around the EPL

Ah your one of those, sure I just read the headlines types

You missed what followed the headline where it was made pretty clear what league was being discussed.

I do find it funny when people try to be clever while making themselves look foolish.

LiamoSail

I think whoever comes fourth will do so on the back of their form against the bottom 12 or so, rather then their record against the top 7/8. United have won titles on the back of their form against these sort of sides, and as things stand, Liverpool are top having beaten only two of the top 9

Consistency against the bottom 12 or so clubs is something Liverpool have lacked over the last few seasons, but this season have lost only two of these 12 games. If Suarez can stay injury/ban free, there's no reason why that sort of form can't be maintained. Couple that with even a poor points total against the rest of the top8, and that will in all likelihood be enough for fourth

kryogen

Its a small thing I know, but I keep noticing it today for whatever reason.

Am I nuts or is it puzzling anyone else that the word fourth is being spelt wrong!

mike65

Go forth!

LiamoSail

kryogen wrote: »

Its a small thing I know, but I keep noticing it today for whatever reason.

Am I nuts or is it puzzling anyone else that the word fourth is being spelt wrong!

I blame this auto correct jazz

ctrl-alt-delete

Would love to see Everton stay in the Champions League places come the end of the season.

They have drawn a lot of games, but still only have that one defeat against City.

Will be very interesting to see where both Merseyside clubs stand when they next meet come the end of January.

OwaynOTT

I blame Roy Hodgson.

K-9

Wonder how many points it will take to get 4th? Was a time 68 or so was the target, I'd say 75 or above now. 33/34 is the minimum target at halfway stage, 8 teams could be at or above that. Everton might have a tough away fixture list but after the results against United and Arsenal can't see them fearing anybody away from home.

5starpool

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

They did not, the thread is titled 'Champions league qualification'. I do find it funny when people in this forum expect football revolves around the EPL

What I find funny is Scottish League or LOI only fans deliberately making silly posts in threads that are clearly about the English league just to rub it in how much better than English clubs fans they think they are.

On the topic at hand if I was pushed to make a choice I'd have to say over the course of the season I think it will be the same top 4 as last year although probably in a different order. It really is silly how close it is though with no team so far pulling away and only 8 points between the top 8 after 17 games (if Arsenal don't beat Chelsea).

I hope Liverpool can keep it up, even if the next 2 games go against them, but I've far less confidence they will hold out than I'd like to have.