Was Evelyn Cusack Right?

MRPRO03

I don’t know if you guys heard about this Evelyn Cusack controversy but for the last 24 hours I’ve seen quite a lot of discussion all over the net about whether or not Evelyn did the right thing in trying to tackle the likes of the Postman Michael and Ken Ring and other quacks who believe they can make long-term predictions about the weather.

The pro-Evelyn side are saying she did the right thing in trying to tackle pseudoscientific nonsense by claiming that science cannot predict more than 10 days in advance for weather systems.

The anti-Evelyn side seem to be saying, well, that doesn’t mean animals can’t make such predictions. They seem to be attaching themselves to what Evelyn said in last night’s broadcast that ‘animals cannot predict the weather’. So therein lies part of the controversy.

Others are claiming that she shouldn’t have even lowered herself to deal with Postman Michael and Ken Ring given that she’d be giving an even bigger platform to them to air their views.

Personally? I think she absolutely did the right thing and it’s about time somebody spoke up for their profession and not see it maimed by the likes of Postman Michael who are no better than Mystic Meg in my view.

Up Evelyn is what I say!! Here’s the clip that’s courting all the controversy for those who aren’t aware:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-ehkocbOcY

So what do you make of all this?

NIMAN

She's right.

imitation

Dead right, I'm fed up of the bolloxolgy, most of these chancers are constantly guessing, and half the believer i see pipe up when they are right, but when they are wrong they say nothing. I'm also willing to be they stay safe with there guesses - in irelands case - "it will be wet" - hurray, right 75% of the time !

It did kinda random come outta nowhere, "at night very cold weather.. were expecting some severe frosts, this begs the question is it going to be a cold winter" huh ?

amdublin

Very informative. No idea why its courting controversy.

Now if it had been the other one in her leathers and tinfoil now

poundapunnet

That woman always sounds half cut.

There is no end to this country's obsession with the weather.

Say what you want but if I see the goats coming down from the mountain beyond I run for the clothes line.

Frosty McSnowballs

The best thing since Jean Byrnes diva outfit requests

xXxkorixXx

great drying out today

mrsdewinter

I think she was dead right. Some people have said she was showing up her own insecurities in the face of 'alternative' forecasters but I think the issue is bigger than that.
As somebody on the Weather forum said today, when nobody speaks out about practices that are based on superstition or myth, these non-scientific approaches gain a kind of currency, as if they are as valid as the scientific models, backed up by the hard data that's been gathered by the Met office.
To my mind, she was encouraging people to investigate the area for themselves.
Look. If you happen to have a theory that your cat can predict earthquakes, etc, then why not apply the scientific process to providing the data which will prove your point. You'll be doing us all a favour.
Until Ken Ring or the Donegal postman can produce reproduceable results in a format that can be reviewed by their peers (That's professional meteorologists, by the way, not faith healers), I'll stick with Evelyn.

TLDR: Team Evelyn!

dpofloinn

What difference does it make? If you believe in quacks and bolloxology then no amount of reason will change your mind and conversly if you believe in science and reason then no amount of bolloxology will change your mind

keith16

xXxkorixXx wrote: »

great drying out today

Fierce close mind.

Frosty McSnowballs

'twas fierce mild out

MRPRO03

dpofloinn wrote: »

What difference does it make? If you believe in quacks and bolloxology then no amount of reason will change your mind and conversly if you believe in science and reason then no amount of bolloxology will change your mind

To be honest, it makes a huge difference! The only way you can change people’s minds about these issues is by slowly informing them over a long period of time and allowing them to think more about the issue. If no challenge is made, then people will never think about it and nothing changes. The only way to change the status quo about any issue in society is to challenge it. It may take a long time to yield results but it has to start some place. In this case, Evelyn has started it and kudos to her for doing so.

roast

Absolutely right. It's insulting for some to belittle the profession, nothing wrong with her defending the science with a little quip at the chancers.

Corkfeen

Weather forecaster states truths and recommends that people read up on Chaos Theory. If that is classified as 'controversial' then this country has issues. It's a tiny number of people that view it to be controversial from what I gather.

Fair play to her, would be great if people read up on the numerous pseudoscience they believe to be legitimate. Homeopathy could be next week's forecast!

ballsymchugh

she's been on newstalk numerous times talking about the bolloxology that those two individuals come out with, and the next day, ken ring will be on newstalk telling anyone who'll listen what the summer will be like.
no one pays attention to what they say anyway, their predictions are forgotten long before the time.

pebbles21

There is just two types of weather in this country ...
Its either raining or its going to rain!

Tzar Chasm

ah you forgot the best bit, just after raining

Busted Flat.

I don't think FIFA made a comment about this, or get their knickers in a twist.


https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&ved=0CEAQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FPaul_the_Octopus&ei=qx2IUs7NO4fH7AaikICADg&usg=AFQjCNHtXmOISnsQoh17ZICawPcadcrKdQ

Tin Foil Hat

poundapunnet wrote: »

Say what you want but if I see the goats coming down from the mountain beyond I run for the clothes line.

Me too. The fukkers are always eating my underpants.

TheBoffin

I think she is right to defend the profession. The amount of stupid speculation and barstool metrology goes on in the country is crazy.

People are making decisions on buying extra fuel because Johnny's knees down in the bar are sore, that means its gonna snow apparently! FFS

I have my own weather station (proper one) here which is connected up to the PC, I use it for my amateur radio hobby to determine conditions and even with that, its not really possible to determine anything more than a day or two at a time. It nearly always equates to the same information as on met.ie but perhaps a tiny bit more accurate in terms of real-time information.

Delighted to see a stance made!

poundapunnet

pebbles21 wrote: »

There is just two types of weather in this country ...
Its either raining or its going to rain!

Yeah but there's about 47 different types of rain!

Heard someone once describe the weather in Ireland as "always the same and yet constantly changing", sums it up well enough

dpofloinn

MRPRO03 wrote: »

To be honest, it makes a huge difference! The only way you can change people’s minds about these issues is by slowly informing them over a long period of time and allowing them to think more about the issue. If no challenge is made, then people will never think about it and nothing changes. The only way to change the status quo about any issue in society is to challenge it. It may take a long time to yield results but it has to start some place. In this case, Evelyn has started it and kudos to her for doing so.

Its one thing informing people and letting them form their own opinion its another thing to condecend towards them
Having a dig at these guys wont stop them making predictions.It wont stop some people believing the bull****.It wont stop the media rolling them out to fill in a light hearted segment on the news or on a chat show.In all fairness who does anything based on the forecast prediction of a postman? Can anyone show me what harm these guys are doing?

Adamantium

I INVOKE CARL SAGAN = NO BULL**** ON MY WEATHER FORECASTS

And now on RTE 1, In other changes to our scheduled programming, we'll be showing Cosmos on continuous loop until Evelyns Cusack's demands are met. RTE employees will be released on these terms only.

Sadly, I've a fair nudge that a lot of people were saying "Who the **** is Carl Sagan?"

TheBoffin

In all fairness who does anything based on the forecast prediction of a postman? Can anyone show me what harm these guys are doing?

Last year an elderly neighbour of mine was told in September by a shopkeeper that we were going to have tonnes of snow in December (2 months away and he could even tell it was going to be about 4 foot of snow). The neighbour went off and got extra coal for 2 months to stock up believing that the snow was coming, left herself short to the point where she tried to trade a bag of coal with me for a loan of a television due to her one breaking down. I gave her the television from my spare room and I had a chat with the local coal supplier on her behalf who agreed to take back some of the stock pile and refund her.

Im not saying that having a prediction for fun is a bad thing entirely, but it is a bad thing when you are pushing it on an elderly audience who don't know any better other than going out and stocking up for fear their tiny state pension wont cover them when the sh1t hits the fan and its sub zero out.

By the way, Not a flake of snow in December last yr here anyway, probably milder than other years overall.

Tzar Chasm

dpofloinn wrote: »

Its one thing informing people and letting them form their own opinion its another thing to condecend towards them
Having a dig at these guys wont stop them making predictions.It wont stop some people believing the bull****.It wont stop the media rolling them out to fill in a light hearted segment on the news or on a chat show.In all fairness who does anything based on the forecast prediction of a postman? Can anyone show me what harm these guys are doing?

the harm these guys do is the perpetuation of superstitious bullsnit whilst attempting to pass it off as something other than that, the number of people who will defend their brand of quackery or try to equate what these charlatan do with the valid scientific efforts of the met office is disturbing.

that's why I applaud her stance

MRPRO03

dpofloinn wrote: »

Its one thing informing people and letting them form their own opinion its another thing to condecend towards them
Having a dig at these guys wont stop them making predictions.It wont stop some people believing the bull****.It wont stop the media rolling them out to fill in a light hearted segment on the news or on a chat show.In all fairness who does anything based on the forecast prediction of a postman? Can anyone show me what harm these guys are doing?

So when you present scientific theories to the public it becomes condescending and arrogant but when you have the likes of Ken Ring condescending the public about his meteorological supernatural powers then it’s normal?

It’s not a question of harm; it’s a question of professional meteorologists now allowing their profession to be ridiculed in this way. They’re standing up for their profession, and in the process, educating the public as well they should.

Tin Foil Hat

dpofloinn wrote: »

Its one thing informing people and letting them form their own opinion its another thing to condecend towards them
Having a dig at these guys wont stop them making predictions.It wont stop some people believing the bull****.It wont stop the media rolling them out to fill in a light hearted segment on the news or on a chat show.In all fairness who does anything based on the forecast prediction of a postman? Can anyone show me what harm these guys are doing?

Meh!
If you put yourself out there, by talking bollox on public airwaves, you leave yourself open to being told that you're talking through your hoop by trained professionals in the field to which your spoofings pertain.

hansfrei

Thread is very high horsey.

No one can predict weather very well, animals sometimes can. Thats something weather forecasters need to face up to and deal with. The amount of stuff I don't know is greater than the amount of stuff Ido know.

For example ; Found out last week about a paracite that causes risky behaviour in humans.
Toxaplasma inhabits 1 in 4 and cases people to become less risk averse. So I'm told.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/03/156216620/common-parasite-may-influence-human-behavior

dpofloinn

TheBoffin wrote: »

Last year an elderly neighbour of mine was told in September by a shopkeeper that we were going to have tonnes of snow in December (2 months away and he could even tell it was going to be about 4 foot of snow). The neighbour went off and got extra coal for 2 months to stock up believing that the snow was coming, left herself short to the point where she tried to trade a bag of coal with me for a loan of a television due to her one breaking down. I gave her the television from my spare room and I had a chat with the local coal supplier on her behalf who agreed to take back some of the stock pile and refund

There's my point people will believe bull**** no matter how illogical and regardless of how much scientific information there is to prove otherwise

poundapunnet

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

Meh!
If you put yourself out there, by talking bollox on public airwaves, you leave yourself open to being told that you're talking through your hoop by trained professionals in the field to which your spoofings pertain.

I was really hoping you'd be on the other side of the debate when I saw your username damn username writing cheques your rational views can't cash

Edit: I see hans is here, nvm. Good man hans.

Tin Foil Hat

hansfrei wrote: »

Thread is very high horsey.

No one can predict weather very well, animals sometimes can. Thats something weather forecasters need to face up to and deal with. The amount of stuff I don't know is greater than the amount of stuff Ido know.

It helps to realise that the amount of information in your own head is vastly, vastly less than the amount of information known to mankind.
This is precisely why it is a good idea to listen to educated, trained professionals and to ignore spoofing charlatans.

TheBoffin

There's my point people will believe bull**** no matter how illogical and regardless of how much scientific information there is to prove otherwise

But why even bullsh1t in the first place when there are no facts whatsoever, instead just a shopkeeper looking for something to talk about.

At least those that saw the weather report now know that people are probably talking boll0x and will disregard chit-chat in favor of real information after the six one news.

Jimoslimos

hansfrei wrote: »

Thread is very high horsey.

No one can predict weather very well, animals sometimes can. Thats something weather forecasters need to face up to and deal with.

No, no they can't. What happens is people incorrectly attribute certain animal behaviours to weather patterns and reaffirm these beliefs by confirmation bias.

hansfrei wrote: »

The amount of stuff I don't know is greater than the amount of stuff Ido know.

For example ; Found out last week about a paracite that causes risky behaviour in humans.
Toxaplasma inhabits 1 in 4 and cases people to become less risk averse. So I'm told.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/03/156216620/common-parasite-may-influence-human-behavior

Tin Foil Hat

poundapunnet wrote: »

I was really hoping you'd be on the other side of the debate when I saw your username damn username writing cheques your rational views can't cash

Edit: I see hans is here, nvm. Good man hans.

Nah! I have no time for bollox merchants.:)

JONJO THE MISER

Was going to post about this last night, i thought someone spiked my can when i heard what she was saying, doing a poem in the end and all, it was surreal.

mikom

MRPRO03 wrote: »

The pro-Evelyn side are saying she did the right thing in trying to tackle pseudoscientific nonsense

Was the angelus on before this weather forecast?

Tin Foil Hat

mikom wrote: »

Was the angelus on before this weather forecast?

That's got fukkall to do with EC, in fairness. She's an atheist/agnostic.

dpofloinn

TheBoffin wrote: »

But why even bullsh1t in the first place when there are no facts whatsoever, instead just a shopkeeper looking for something to talk about.

The reason for the bull**** is because people genuinely believe they are right and no amount of logic will make them change there mind.As for the local shopkeeper do they sell fuel by any chance?

On a side note would you have felt sorry for the neighbour if she had made a bet based on a dead cert tip received from that same shop keeper,and that horse didnt come in?Thus leaving herself a bit short.The way I see it she took a gamble based on a prediction and it didnt pay off

Billy86

She was right to do it. It's not like she went on some crazy rant, she pointed out something that was fair to do so and gave the lay person watching a small bit of information/education on the subject. It added something to the weather worth watching, and was a sh**e site better than wishing Sarah in Letterkenny a happy 7th birthday.

Personally though, I wish this guy was our weatherman.

mikom

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

That's got fukkall to do with EC, in fairness. She's an atheist/agnostic.

And.....

hansfrei

Jimoslimos wrote: »

No, no they can't. What happens is people incorrectly attribute certain animal behaviours to weather patterns and reaffirm these beliefs by confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias? That works on both sides of this debate, you know?

Goats have been around a long time. They live outside in the weather. Plus - theres no way of knowing what they know, unless you can talk goat.

Tin Foil Hat

mikom wrote: »

And.....

And what?
Do you think that, because EC's employer broadcasts an annoying noise for sixty seconds before the news that precedes her forecast, she should stay silent while some spoofing cretin makes a mockery of her profession?

simongurnick

That's brilliant. Fair play to her. I've been living in Canada the last few years and the amount of clowns that present the weather here and in the states is unreal

TheBoffin

The reason for the bull**** is because people genuinely believe they are right and no amount of logic will make them change there mind.As for the local shopkeeper do they sell fuel by any chance?

The lady in question took the information she got as certain from a member of the community in good faith. and NO the shopkeeper doesn't sell fuel

On a side note would you have felt sorry for the neighbour if she had made a bet based on a dead cert tip received from that same shop keeper,and that horse didnt come in?Thus leaving herself a bit short.The way I see it she took a gamble based on a prediction and it didnt pay off

Placing a bet and preparing to keeping warm for the winter is not comparing like for like no matter how much you try to dress it up.

Jimoslimos

hansfrei wrote: »

Confirmation bias? That works on both sides of this debate, you know?

What you're trying to argue is a false equivalence.

poundapunnet

hansfrei wrote: »

Confirmation bias? That works on both sides of this debate, you know?

Goats have been around a long time. They live outside in the weather. Plus - theres no way of knowing what they know, unless you can talk goat.

They are definitely trying to tell us something, in fairness

mikom

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

That's got fukkall to do with EC, in fairness. She's an atheist/agnostic.

mikom wrote: »

And.....

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

And what?
Do you think that, because EC's employer broadcasts an annoying noise for sixty seconds before the news that precedes her forecast, she should stay silent while some spoofing cretin makes a mockery of her profession?

The "and" was questioning your reasoning of pointing out that she is an atheist/agnostic.
My original post was not an attack on Evelyn Cusack.
She could be lesbian for all I care.

For the record, personally i prefer my weather forecast with less lecture.

Tin Foil Hat

hansfrei wrote: »

Goats have been around a long time. They live outside in the weather. Plus - theres no way of knowing what they know, unless you can talk goat.

Goats have a lifespan of 15-18 years. Evelyn Cusack is nearly fifty. Evelyn Cusack has a degree in maths, a masters in physics and is a trained meteorologist. Goats are mostly illiterate.
Forgive me if I don't side with the goats.

hansfrei

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

Goats have a lifespan of 15-18 years. Evelyn Cusack is nearly fifty. Evelyn Cusack has a degree in maths, a masters in physics and is a trained meteorologist. Goats are mostly illiterate.
Forgive me if I don't side with the goats.

Shes basing her weather forecasting on the results of models done on a supercomputer by people who live indoors.

Goats have more powerful brains than a supercompurter and live outdoors.

dpofloinn

We are getting side tracked here but,How was buying extra fuel based on a pediction any different to making a bet on a horse based on a prediction? She had no gurantee that it would snow she took a gamble based on the word of a shop keeper.
Getting back to my origional point.People will believe Bull**** even when there is nothing to back it up,take creationism for example how much proof is there to discredit it?Yet people still believe in it and no amount of evolutionary theory will change their minds.Would I be correct in saying that you and the OP believe in science and logic? would I also be correct in saying that if I put forward a plausible argument contradicting your beliefs (not that I can) you would still believe what you wanted to believe?

Billy86

hansfrei wrote: »

Shes basing her weather forecasting on the results of models done on a supercomputer by people who live indoors.

Goats have more powerful brains than a supercompurter and live outdoors.

What, just because they can out Bon Jovi, Bon Jovi?