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NBA Betting Thread 2013/2014

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  • padraig_f wrote: »
    The Bulls look reasonable value to win the East @ 20/1, having got a favourable draw yesterday.

    They're capable of beating the Pacers, and with Indiana's troubles, I think the Heat's difficulties have been overlooked heading into the playoffs.

    Wade's been missing a lot of games, which can't be good for continuity. Lebron's being carrying a heavy load, Battier's finished, they waived Mike Miller (who's contributing well for Memphis).

    Looking at their recent loss to the Hawks, which was a quite important game as it could've helped them get the #1 seed:
    http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400490065

    Beasley or Battier doesn't play, Ray Allen takes two shots. They get a total of 8 points from their bench, so I think there are some depth issues there.

    Thinking of going in on Chicago to beat Washington in the series. Before the first game the Bulls were 4/9 or something, all the way out to 7/5 now with B365. Seems to be an over-reaction of sorts, winning games back in Washington isn't exactly mission impossible.




  • Bateman wrote: »
    Thinking of going in on Chicago to beat Washington in the series. Before the first game the Bulls were 4/9 or something, all the way out to 7/5 now with B365. Seems to be an over-reaction of sorts, winning games back in Washington isn't exactly mission impossible.

    It is a tough matchup for the Bulls, no doubt about it. In saying that I still expect them to advance.




  • Bateman wrote: »
    Thinking of going in on Chicago to beat Washington in the series. Before the first game the Bulls were 4/9 or something, all the way out to 7/5 now with B365. Seems to be an over-reaction of sorts, winning games back in Washington isn't exactly mission impossible.

    They will play better than Sunday, a couple of players were a bit off, but I think I'd still like a better price than 7/5. Down 1 game, you have to win 4 out of 6 including a road game, so I don't think there's a whole lot of value at 7/5.

    It may be better to wait 'til after tonight's game. I'd like to see if they're able to make the adjustments. Nene probably won't be as dominant, but if they over-commit to him, Wall or Beal could punish them. If the Bulls win, you may still get around even money, and they're a good road team.




  • buyer95 wrote: »
    Cash money.

    #cash ;)




  • Nuri Sahin wrote: »
    #cash ;)

    Not really sure what's this is meant to mean. This was my own bet, when I follow your bets knowingly I always say that I'm following you if I post the bet. You may also have had this bet, i honestly have no clue, I didn't check your bets over the weekend.


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  • Jonas valanciunas (raptors)+10.5 rebounds @5/6 on pp, he got 18 in first game!!
    Easy money came in after 3 mins of 2nd half




  • any tips for tonight?




  • Was thinking of kemba walker (bobcats) to score +17.5 @ 8/11

    Anyone have any other good bets for this game tonight?




  • padraig_f wrote: »
    They will play better than Sunday, a couple of players were a bit off, but I think I'd still like a better price than 7/5. Down 1 game, you have to win 4 out of 6 including a road game, so I don't think there's a whole lot of value at 7/5.

    It may be better to wait 'til after tonight's game. I'd like to see if they're able to make the adjustments. Nene probably won't be as dominant, but if they over-commit to him, Wall or Beal could punish them. If the Bulls win, you may still get around even money, and they're a good road team.

    I went in, might double down still, foolish or not. From what I have seen, Washington aren't doing anything that the Bulls can't get to grips with, jsut that it might be too late by the time they do. They're definitely not toast just yet though.




  • Bateman wrote: »
    I went in, might double down still, foolish or not. From what I have seen, Washington aren't doing anything that the Bulls can't get to grips with, jsut that it might be too late by the time they do. They're definitely not toast just yet though.

    Yeah they're still alive, I thought they were unlucky not to win game 2. I think Washington are shooting at an unsustainable rate, I'm happy with the type of shot the Bulls are giving up.

    Game 2 stats...

    Wizards 47.5% from the field, points in the paint: 22.
    Bulls 43.2% from the field, points in the paint: 44.

    I don't think they can continue to shoot at that rate on outside shots.


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  • I like Atlanta a little bit and the Under in OKC-MEM a lot tonite.
    I got +2 and 190 respectively, is now generally +2.5 and 189.
    Really want to see clips warriors but its on way too late, no pick for that game but slight lean to GSW.




  • Gonna go with the Grizzlies money-line tonight @ 2.25.




  • James Harden +27.5




  • OKC -3 tonight

    Mulling over opposing the Spurs on the spread, not decided yet




  • Overs in the bulls wizards (183.5) and raptors nets (192) double at 8/3. Only 2 of the 7 games for each this season have been under.




  • Joe johnson (nets) +19.5 pts @5/6 seems a sure thing to me, he has had a great series, the nets need to win




  • Paddy Power have a great price on the Wizards to win their series over Indiana, 2.90. Steamed in on it.

    Also took the Clippers to beat OKC for a smaller amount.




  • I like OKC and IND to even things up tonight before going on the road.

    KD will probably have a big game after getting the MVP award so the announcers can drool over him (though it didn't help the Bulls when Noah got his award, they played better and had a lead but still lost.) Also doubtful Chris Paul and the Clips can shoot like they did last game again, and like I posted before Game 1, they're due a major letdown, it just didn't happen in that first game. I think they'll be happy enough to go back to LA with one win. I just don't see the Clips, who were dumped in the first round last year, taking a 2-0 lead on the road to start this series, esp. facing a team like OKC who went to the West Finals last year.

    Pacers bit harder to be confident about but everyone ganging up on Hibbert might actually motivate them. The fact that the line opened at -4 and went to 4.5 just like game 1 reinforces it for me, with all the Roy bashing the money is still coming for them. Besides, they made some runs on the Wiz last game in both halves and they are still very good at home overall. I think Larry Legend's team gets plenty of calls to get to the line all night in this one. The Wizards also will be happy enough getting one win after the rest they had which people were saying could be bad for them, they're probably a bit satisfied with themselves just to have proved them wrong. Wizards turned it over a good bit last game but the blocks and hot shooters kept them from being exposed by the TOs. And their shoting actually wasn't that hot if you take away Ariza's stats. The Pacers shot horribly, George was 4/17 and even Scola was missing those midrange jumpers that are usually automatic. I think they'll shoot better this game, Pacers have plenty of talented players who could step up and have a big night and they can win even if Roy is a non-factor again.




  • sligoface wrote: »

    Pacers bit harder to be confident about but everyone ganging up on Hibbert might actually motivate them. The fact that the line opened at -4 and went to 4.5 just like game 1 reinforces it for me, with all the Roy bashing the money is still coming for them. Besides, they made some runs on the Wiz last game in both halves and they are still very good at home overall. I think Larry Legend's team gets plenty of calls to get to the line all night in this one. The Wizards also will be happy enough getting one win after the rest they had which people were saying could be bad for them, they're probably a bit satisfied with themselves just to have proved them wrong. Wizards turned it over a good bit last game but the blocks and hot shooters kept them from being exposed by the TOs. And their shoting actually wasn't that hot if you take away Ariza's stats. The Pacers shot horribly, George was 4/17 and even Scola was missing those midrange jumpers that are usually automatic. I think they'll shoot better this game, Pacers have plenty of talented players who could step up and have a big night and they can win even if Roy is a non-factor again.

    The natural momentum is to swing back for the reasons you said, but I didn't see anything in game 1 that the Wizards can't repeat. Obviously the 60% from 3 they won't do again, but the 41% FG they shot overall was nothing out of the ordinary, and the rebounding differential of 53-36 was huge and should be largely repeatable.

    Hibbert's been out-of-sorts for so long, I don't see anything jolting him back into form at this stage, and I think it's disruptive for their rotation when he's sitting out because a lot of their defensive design depended on him protecting the paint.

    I'll go with the Wizards again. I thought when they played the Bulls they might relax after winning game 1, but they went out and won game 2 as well, so I don't think they're inclined to have let-downs.




  • padraig_f wrote: »
    The natural momentum is to swing back for the reasons you said, but I didn't see anything in game 1 that the Wizards can't repeat. Obviously the 60% from 3 they won't do again, but the 41% FG they shot overall was nothing out of the ordinary, and the rebounding differential of 53-36 was huge and should be largely repeatable.

    Hibbert's been out-of-sorts for so long, I don't see anything jolting him back into form at this stage, and I think it's disruptive for their rotation when he's sitting out because a lot of their defensive design depended on him protecting the paint.

    I'll go with the Wizards again. I thought when they played the Bulls they might relax after winning game 1, but they went out and won game 2 as well, so I don't think they're inclined to have let-downs.

    Yeah but I think in the other 2 series the momentum won't swing until game 3 when the Nets and Blazers go back home. I'll be going with miami and SA again tonight.

    Amazingly Hibbert comes alive! But ffs the Pacers still don't cover, lucky I took -4 early so got the stake back instead of losing.


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  • 2-0 thurs night, no bets on nba last night because I was waiting for today. Teams coming home down 0-2 is usually a good spot and the fact they are both only getting a point reinforces it. So basically taking the opposite of what I took in games 1 and 2, going with Nets and Blazers.




  • sligoface wrote: »
    2-0 thurs night, no bets on nba last night because I was waiting for today. Teams coming home down 0-2 is usually a good spot and the fact they are both only getting a point reinforces it. So basically taking the opposite of what I took in games 1 and 2, going with Nets and Blazers.

    What's your overall record?




  • sligoface wrote: »
    2-0 thurs night, no bets on nba last night because I was waiting for today. Teams coming home down 0-2 is usually a good spot and the fact they are both only getting a point reinforces it. So basically taking the opposite of what I took in games 1 and 2, going with Nets and Blazers.

    I've taken heat and spurs, line down to -1 now. Gone bigger on spurs, on top of their game and their bench is just so productive, they've also got the best away record in the league, book is being way too generous to blazers home court advantage




  • Nuri Sahin wrote: »
    What's your overall record?

    What's wrong, you think I'm gloating because I had one good night? I'm not. I'm just trying to get the thread going again as it wasn't getting many posts compared to the playoff one. I've been betting sports for over a decade and had plenty of highs and lows. I know one good night does not mean I can quit my day job so no need to point it out. I remember having a really crap stretch in the NBA where it seemed I could not pick a winner to save me life. TBH my only really profitable month in NBA was January but that combined with a great NFL playoffs at the same time has me well in the black for 2014. Basketball betting is always a grind, often times you need free throws and garbage time threes at the end of games need to fall your way to get on the right side of the number.

    But I've always done very well in the playoffs, it's the only time I bet big on basketball. And this year is going well with exception of game 2 in the Bulls Wiz series which I thought was a lock for the Bulls and they blew it. That cost me a nice chunk.

    In this round so far I'm 6-1-1 and all those picks were all posted before the games, either here or in the NBA playoff thread, feel free to have a look. No point in posting an overall record of picks I never posted before the games really, is there? Because I could just make it up.

    I didn't make a pick in the NBA last night because I think when they split the first 2 it's better to wait and take the loser of game 3 to even it up in game 4, esp if the loser of game 3 is the home team. Doesn't always work of course, but I don't think both the wiz and clips will go down1-3 at home so I'll be going with them.

    I'm not here to brag about wins or compete with other posters who pick games or put other people down if they lose or whatever. I just wanted to start posting picks for the playoffs and keep the conversation alive with others who like to bet on the NBA playoffs.

    If the Nets and Blazers both lose tonight I'll be unhappy and I won't hide from the fact that I picked them. I'd say a split is worst case scenario but certainly wouldn't be the greatest shock if the two conference champs from last year add another W. I just think the handicap being so low on two teams who the public loves and who have dominated their opponents to straight games is trying to induce betting on MIA and SA, and I'm happy to go the other way, with the home teams being able to avoid going down 0-3.




  • neil.p.b wrote: »
    I've taken heat and spurs, line down to -1 now. Gone bigger on spurs, on top of their game and their bench is just so productive, they've also got the best away record in the league, book is being way too generous to blazers home court advantage

    Nah, they have to lose tonight because the league wants another 7 game series for the old Spurs so OKC or the Clips have a better chance to beat them. They'd rather have either the KD vs Lebron storyline or the Clips playing through adversity storyline in the final. I'm a basketball conspiracy theorist!

    Seriously, even though they are favored, I don't see both road teams going up 3-0 tonight. Looks too easy to take Spurs and Heat, they both just dominated the last two games but both are only favored for game 3 by the slightest of margins. That tells you a lot.




  • sligoface wrote: »
    What's wrong, you think I'm gloating because I had one good night? I'm not. I'm just trying to get the thread going again as it wasn't getting many posts compared to the playoff one. I've been betting sports for over a decade and had plenty of highs and lows. I know one good night does not mean I can quit my day job so no need to point it out. I remember having a really crap stretch in the NBA where it seemed I could not pick a winner to save me life. TBH my only really profitable month in NBA was January but that combined with a great NFL playoffs at the same time has me well in the black for 2014. Basketball betting is always a grind, often times you need free throws and garbage time threes at the end of games need to fall your way to get on the right side of the number.

    But I've always done very well in the playoffs, it's the only time I bet big on basketball. And this year is going well with exception of game 2 in the Bulls Wiz series which I thought was a lock for the Bulls and they blew it. That cost me a nice chunk.

    In this round so far I'm 6-1-1 and all those picks were all posted before the games, either here or in the NBA playoff thread, feel free to have a look. No point in posting an overall record of picks I never posted before the games really, is there? Because I could just make it up.

    I didn't make a pick in the NBA last night because I think when they split the first 2 it's better to wait and take the loser of game 3 to even it up in game 4, esp if the loser of game 3 is the home team. Doesn't always work of course, but I don't think both the wiz and clips will go down1-3 at home so I'll be going with them.

    I'm not here to brag about wins or compete with other posters who pick games or put other people down if they lose or whatever. I just wanted to start posting picks for the playoffs and keep the conversation alive with others who like to bet on the NBA playoffs.

    If the Nets and Blazers both lose tonight I'll be unhappy and I won't hide from the fact that I picked them. I'd say a split is worst case scenario but certainly wouldn't be the greatest shock if the two conference champs from last year add another W. I just think the handicap being so low on two teams who the public loves and who have dominated their opponents to straight games is trying to induce betting on MIA and SA, and I'm happy to go the other way, with the home teams being able to avoid going down 0-3.

    ****ing hell, I was asking because if you had proof of a record, I'd keep an eye on you. Not tail you as such as I don't need to tail anyone as lads here who follow me elsewhere know, but merely keep an eye is all in comparison to my own bets... especially if your strike rate is over 65%.




  • Nuri Sahin wrote: »
    ****ing hell, I was asking because if you had proof of a record, I'd keep an eye on you. Not tail you as such as I don't need to tail anyone as lads here who follow me elsewhere know, but merely keep an eye is all in comparison to my own bets... especially if your strike rate is over 65%.

    Sorry mate, I got a tad defensive there. Been on other gambling forums where everyone just flames each other so that's what I was expecting, and was the reason I stopped posting picks online. My bad.

    I think I was actually the one looking to tail you before, I was asking for your twitter name a few months back. I don't check twitter much but glad you're doing well and it's all good.

    Sooooooo.... Who you like tonight?




  • sligoface wrote: »
    Sorry mate, I got a tad defensive there. Been on other gambling forums where everyone just flames each other so that's what I was expecting, and was the reason I stopped posting picks online. My bad.

    I think I was actually the one looking to tail you before, I was asking for your twitter name a few months back. I don't check twitter much but glad you're doing well and it's all good.

    Sooooooo.... Who you like tonight?

    No worries.

    As you said, gambling forums are haven for flamers, I should know, I was a moderator of gambling here on Boards for over 2 years. I have one or two legit fruit cake, stalkers from here, so instead of posting my bets and potentially making them money , I've stopped posting my NBA bets on Boards, opting instead to post them on Twitter only. Golf bets are the only thing I leave for Boards these days.

    As for tonight, without giving a straight forward answer, I'll be checking out both totals I think. Both series have their trend when it comes to the total. Kinda fancy one dog to bite tonight too.




  • neil.p.b wrote: »
    I've taken heat and spurs, line down to -1 now. Gone bigger on spurs, on top of their game and their bench is just so productive, they've also got the best away record in the league, book is being way too generous to blazers home court advantage

    You were right, Spurs are too good. Didn't get to see the game but sounds like they did what they usually do. Blazers are done now, no team has ever come back from 3-0 down to win a series.

    Going with Clips and Wiz tonight. Pacers seem to have finally woke up but I am going to take a chance on them relaxing a bit after the big win.

    Clips I'm pretty confident about. They were right there the last game until the 4th and Doc will sort those different matchups that caused them trouble. Hard to be super confident going against the practically unguardable Durant, but last time they lost at home they came out and whipped GSW the next game. Quickly checked their season results and as far as I could see they haven't lost 2 in a row at home or 3 in a row overall all year!!


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  • sligoface wrote: »
    You were right, Spurs are too good. Didn't get to see the game but sounds like they did what they usually do. Blazers are done now, no team has ever come back from 3-0 down to win a series.

    Going with Clips and Wiz tonight. Pacers seem to have finally woke up but I am going to take a chance on them relaxing a bit after the big win.

    Clips I'm pretty confident about. They were right there the last game until the 4th and Doc will sort those different matchups that caused them trouble. Hard to be super confident going against the practically unguardable Durant, but last time they lost at home they came out and whipped GSW the next game. Quickly checked their season results and as far as I could see they haven't lost 2 in a row at home or 3 in a row overall all year!!

    I'll be on Spurs again for game 4, vastly superior and blazers basically have nothing to play for, if spurs race ahead early it could end up getting embarrassing for the blazers. They're -3.5 on the spread at the minute, may even look at a bigger total.

    Will be on pacers tonight. Think there's value at +5 and although the wiz can't play as badly as they did in game 3 if the pacers show up i'd expect them to win straight out. Avoiding thunder and clippers game, cant call it, may go for overs if i get itchy fingers!


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