paddy power gold cup 2013

droidman123

don't think there is a thread already about this. I really fancy katenko for this years renewal. if he can recapture his form from the first part of last season. apparently a bout of colic knocked the horse out of sorts for most of the second part. he has Cheltenham winning form, so shouldn't be a problem there. I would like to see more rain as he ideally would like soft going.14\1 available in places looks great value.

Harry Angstrom

Dynaste is the class horse of the race, but I don't think David Pipe is half as good as his old man for getting a horse spot on for a race like this

Go Native

Katenko seems EXTREMELY progressive. He jumped them silly last time out at Cheltenham. An added bonus that Williams horses have come to form earlier than usual this season.

handsfree

double ross 20/1 would be my ew pick for what its worth.

jimjamcos

Disappointed that Marito is not running. Going to have a small bet on Salut Flo at 14's. Could end up Pipes only runner and will likely halve in price if so.

Champion Court is a very solid ew bet at 10/1. Hard to see him out of first 4 IMO. Record over 2m4/5 at Cheltenham reads 1st, 9th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st. The 9th was behind Bobs Worth and Rock on Ruby in 2011 Neptune while the 5th was in last years relatively strong Ryanair. He will probably find one or two too good but sure to run his race on all known form.


Really like Katenko too but definitely think he needs 3m or at least heavy ground over the Paddy Power trip. Judging by reports, grounds unlikely to be heavy come Saturday. Two of his three wins over the 2m5 trip were on heavy ground, one of them in France. He'd only be of interest to me if getting such conditions on Saturday.

Slattsy

Champion Court was one that stood out for me at first glance.

Should have taken a price last week as the price has tumbled.

droidman123

Go Native wrote: »

Katenko seems EXTREMELY progressive. He jumped them silly last time out at Cheltenham. An added bonus that Williams horses have come to form earlier than usual this season.

Yeah totally agree,I admit he probably needs some improvement,but not much and by all reports from the Venetia camp he is fit and rearing to go.

rockycelt

Will probably back Texas Jack for this one.
Unlike most of the fancied horses he has a run into him, finishing 3l 3rd to Rolling Aces at Down Royal two weeks ago.
Finished 11l behind Dynaste in the Jeswon at the festival, but gets 8lb on him on Saturday.
He finished ahead of Subsequent RSA winner Lord Windermere on his two outings previous to the Jewson.

At 28/1 he offers much better each way value that those at the top of the market.
I'd like some rain though.

tonic wine

jimjamcos wrote: »

Going to have a small bet on Salut Flo at 14's. Could end up Pipes only runner and will likely halve in price

It ticks most of the right trends for the race.

tomaussie

tonic wine wrote: »

It ticks most of the right trends for the race.

Any chance of posting a link for ten year trends ?

hucklebuck

Vino Griego at 20/1 for me, no doubt the visor will be back on and his two visored races in Cheltenham he won by 19L and got beaten 1/ 1/2 by Carrickboy who he is now giving 2lbs less to.

ste2010

tonic wine wrote: »

It ticks most of the right trends for the race.

Except for the 648 day layoff! But on the same page..I was hoping ballynagour would be going instead of salut flo but either of which will have my
Money along with tap night. I will hold the trigger until its confirmed

prettyboy81

I'll be backing an old favourite or not from this Horse Racing thread Hidden Cyclone plus Colour Squadron both 12/1 with PaddyPower at the moment. I couldn't find a price on Betfair but will keep an eye out.

Just seen price on Betfair 15/1 Hidden Cyclone & 18/1 Colour Squadron.

Go Native

I agree that Katenko would be better suited over further, but at the same time I don't think this year's Paddy Power is of any great standard, in fact I think it's below standard.

I'd straight away rule every Irish horse out of it, they simply aren't well handicapped coming over for these races.

In terms of Dynaste. He was impressive at Aintree, but if he couldn't win the Jewson then he's not going to be winning this off 159.

The only other horse who interests me would be Tap Night who I think has been campaigned for a big handicap of this nature.

Harry Angstrom

tomaussie wrote: »

Any chance of posting a link for ten year trends ?

http://tippinggames.racinguk.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/paddy-power-gold-cup-trends-2013-1383534793

PADDY POWER GOLD CUP TRENDS 2013
The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 16th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 15th to 17th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-3-13
6yo: 2-6-30
7yo: 7-7-45
8yo: 1-5-41
9yo: 0-7-21
10yo+: 0-0-18
Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-16-88
Horses aged 8+: 1-12-80
None of the 18 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-8-63
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-20-105
Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 504FPP65PP (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 7-11-69
Horses rated 136 to 145: 3-11-82
Horses rated 135 or less: 0-6-17
7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point and was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree

Other Races
Previous November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 2U1 (1-1-3)
Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Rajdhani Express): 1F3P (1-1-4)
Record of first 6 from Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P (2-3-12)
Previous December Gold Cup winner (Unioniste): 125UP (1-1-5)
First 3 from previous December Gold Cup: 123P5U1P (2-2-8)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 1P (1-0-2)
Feltham Novice Chase winner (Deynas): 3P (0-1-2)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 846 (0-1-3)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Champion Court): 2PU (0-1-3)
Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vino Griego): 6U (0-0-2)
Murphy Group H'cap Chase winner (Katenko): 706 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Carrickboy): 477PP60 (0-0-7)
3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 16
3 of 3 third season chaser winners ran in previous year's December Gold Cup, finishing 1F2
8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival

Trainers
The Pipe stable (3-1-16) have accounted for 4 of the last 11 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-10) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009. He saddled the 5th in 2011 and had no runner in it last year.
Nicky Henderson (1-6-17) & Paul Nicholls (1-4-21) have both saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the last 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-9) and Alan King (0-3-8) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2003.
Irish based trainers (1-1-18) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.

Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00.


Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7
- Carrying 10-13+
- Officially rated 146 or higher
- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase
- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Second or third season chaser
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
- First 3 in 2012 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup
- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
- Favourite does well
- See more at: http://tippinggames.racinguk.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/paddy-power-gold-cup-trends-2013-1383534793#sthash.TeKNfZqh.dpuf

Jayo11780

I've been Katenko all along but another horse i fancy like crazy for this one is Rhajdhani Express...

I was over there for it last year when we all lost our bollocks on Grands crus... Time to make it back off them this time

Might do good e/w punt on Katenko & a good saver on R E..

Go Native

He's a progressive horse alright, but at the end of the day he's ridden by an amateur so it's always very likely that he'll get an amateur type ride.

tonic wine

ste2010 wrote: »

Except for the 648 day layoff! But on the same page..I was hoping ballynagour would be going instead of salut flo but either of which will have my
Money along with tap night. I will hold the trigger until its confirmed

I did say most :P but ya, if he can over come is layoff none of the worse.
Ballynagour was supposed to be a handicap plot job for the festival last year but disappointing all the same in the Byrne plate.

I'll be keeping an eye if money comes for either tap night or colour squadron.

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 to 7
- Carrying 10-13+
- Officially rated 146 or higher
- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase
- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Second or third season chaser
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
- First 3 in 2012 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup
- Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival
- First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
- Favourite does well
- See more at: http://tippinggames.racinguk.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/paddy-power-gold-cup-trends-2013-1383534793#sthash.TeKNfZqh.dpuf

A different take on a summary from the RP
No older then 8 (10/10)
Won a class 1 or class 2 (10/10)
Between 3 and 9 runs over fences (9/10)
Won over 2m4 to 2m5f (9/10)
OR 136 to 150 (9/10)
RPR of at least 144 9/10
Carried at least 10st 7lbs 8/10
Course winner 7/10
Making seasonal debut 6/10

ste2010

I was an avid follower of colour squadron for a short time..I think his jumping will stand in his way of honours in big races

Colonel Sanders

Doesn't look the classiest renewal to me

The only horse in this race I can see improving really significantly on his handicap mark is a very risky betting proposition, Salut Flo. A 7lb rise for his demolition job in The Byrne Group Plate (one of my biggest pay days ever) doesn't seem overly harsh and remember he was well backed in the old Bonusprint trophy the December before, when he ran a bit fresh and jumping errors ruined his chance

The problem is, of course, he hasn't run since that festival win! I thought at the start of last season he could be a dark horse for the Ryanair so 144 may not be the end of him. Would take a herculean training performance however.

Colonel Sanders

Needless to say I'll be cheering on Hidden Cyclone but even I don't think he's a betting proposition in a competitive big field handicap off 152. His jumping so far over fences simply hasn't been near good enough and on actual form I'm not sure there's a huge room to maneuver off his current mark

Small field races below Grade 1 level has been where he's made hay and I think this won't be his cup of tea at all

prettyboy81

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Needless to say I'll be cheering on Hidden Cyclone but even I don't think he's a betting proposition in a competitive big field handicap off 152. His jumping so far over fences simply hasn't been near good enough and on actual form I'm not sure there's a huge room to maneuver off his current mark

Small field races below Grade 1 level has been where he's made hay and I think this won't be his cup of tea at all

Ah jaysus, is he not worth a small e/w bet out of the history you have with this animal? I'll be having a small e/w bet on him and be interested to see the tactics they impose on the jockey/horse.

Mossey Joe

prettyboy81 wrote: »

Ah jaysus, is he not worth a small e/w bet out of the history you have with this animal? I'll be having a small e/w bet on him and be interested to see the tactics they impose on the jockey/horse.

Shark told us around this time last year he'd win the Lexus and go close in the Gold Cup....152 mightn't be so bad so:D

nobody told me

Mossey Joe wrote: »

Shark told us around this time last year he'd win the Lexus and go close in the Gold Cup....152 mightn't be so bad so:D

If shark told me today was Wednesday I'd check first. An absolute tin roofer.

Mossey Joe

He was telling us that he couldn't believe the money they got for the Liquidator, think it was around 240k and that he didn't think he was that useful and that Old Kilcash was the best bumper horse he's had for years. He doesn't know his arse from his elbow

prettyboy81

I hope they interview Shark before the race on Channel 4 the weekend

Colonel Sanders

Am I right in saying they're declaring for this tomorrow?

Colonel Sanders

Betfair market suggesting Ballynagour runs for Pipe & not Salut Flo

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Betfair market suggesting Ballynagour runs for Pipe & not Salut Flo

Ones 10's others 12's is that significant enough to consider that ballynagour is running

hucklebuck

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Needless to say I'll be cheering on Hidden Cyclone

Jaysus Kernel, you could have bought him with the dosh you have put on him at this stage!!

Colonel Sanders

ste2010 wrote: »

Ones 10's others 12's is that significant enough to consider that ballynagour is running

Salut Flo being laid & Ballynagour being backed. The pink side was blank for the latter earlier.

Same owner too so I'm guessing only one will run. Up til a few hours ago I thought it'd be Salut Flo

Colonel Sanders

hucklebuck wrote: »

Jaysus Kernel, you could have bought him with the dosh you have put on him at this stage!!

I'm pretty sure there's only 2 or 3 horses I've won more dosh on in my life! Leading Run was one & Best Mate was probably another.

ste2010

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Salut Flo being laid & Ballynagour being backed. The pink side was blank for the latter earlier.

Same owner too so I'm guessing only one will run. Up til a few hours ago I thought it'd be Salut Flo

Personally fancy ballynagour hope he runs and the 12's doesn't disappear quickly tomorrow

andyman

Jayo11780 wrote: »

I've been Katenko all along but another horse i fancy like crazy for this one is Rhajdhani Express...

I was over there for it last year when we all lost our bollocks on Grands crus... Time to make it back off them this time

Might do good e/w punt on Katenko & a good saver on R E..

I'm mad about RE as well. Really, really like him.

tomaussie

Right Guys. I asked for ten year trends and two of you guys were good enough to post them up.

I was left with a strong six selections but once I used the age to narrow it down even further I was left with two.

The one that stands out is NADIYA DE LA VEGA but unfortunately only 12/1 is available.

ASTRACAD and WALKON are the other two I would consider.


Any of you brainiacs have anything to say that may put me off or on it ? I'm only getting into the Northern Hemisphere racing so is Henderson worth his salt at the minute or in general ?

Cheers guys !

Bangor Billy

Henderson is the UK champion trainer and has most of the best horses in the UK. He has big money owners in the yard, excellent bloodstock agents and one of the best jockeys around as his stable jockey so he certainly has plenty going for him.

Johner

ste2010 wrote: »

Personally fancy ballynagour hope he runs and the 12's doesn't disappear quickly tomorrow

In the post today Pipe says at the moment Ballynagour is an intended runner over Salut Flo.

EDIT - Ballynagour is his runner!

David Pipe ‏@DavidPipeRacing 1h

Ballynagour will be our only runner in the Paddy Power Gold Cup @CheltenhamRaces on Saturday.

ste2010

Johner wrote: »

In the post today Pipe says at the moment Ballynagour is an intended runner over Salut Flo.

EDIT - Ballynagour is his runner!

Quite happy at the moment. Backed tap night earlier in the week at 25's. I see McCoy is on board. Got 10's on ballynagour just now...another I'm considering backing without backing all the horses in the race ew is attaglance..33-1! Carrying 10st I wonder if this could be one of the most carefully plotted horses for this race in history

Backstreet Moyes

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Henderson is the UK champion trainer and has most of the best horses in the UK. He has big money owners in the yard, excellent bloodstock agents and one of the best jockeys around as his stable jockey so he certainly has plenty going for him.

Friend who is usually decent with info said McCoy will be riding Nadiya De La Vega and he is fancied.

Huntley

Nuts102 wrote: »

Friend who is usually decent with info said McCoy will be riding Nadiya De La Vega and he is fancied.

Andrew Tinkler is already booked on NDLV and McCoy thinks none of JPs horses have much chance.

jimjamcos

Katenko non runner. Assume it's because of ground.

Mossey Joe

ste2010 wrote: »

Quite happy at the moment. Backed tap night earlier in the week at 25's. I see McCoy is on board. Got 10's on ballynagour just now...another I'm considering backing without backing all the horses in the race ew is attaglance..33-1! Carrying 10st I wonder if this could be one of the most carefully plotted horses for this race in history

If he has sorted his jumping,which is a big if, Attaglance could beat these by a fence he's that well handicapped

hucklebuck

Dynaste is out

http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=539983&lid=&raceid=&title=Dynaste+out+of+Paddy+Power&ref=PA+Racing+Feed&nav=&sub=&day=Thu

Harry Angstrom

Donn McClean going for Johns Spirit on Newstalk.

Colonel Sanders

Struggling to find a bet myself with Salut Flo a non runner

Slattsy

Katenko out.

Ballynagour wins this at a canter (got word) ((seriously i really did)) and it'll go off a lot shorter than current price come Saturday.

bigcat13

Bangor Billy wrote: »

Henderson is the UK champion trainer and has most of the best horses in the UK. He has big money owners in the yard, excellent bloodstock agents and one of the best jockeys around as his stable jockey so he certainly has plenty going for him.

And of course the uncanny ability to get away with doping!!

mailburner

Slattsy wrote: »

Katenko out.

Ballynagour wins this at a canter (got word) ((seriously i really did)) and it'll go off a lot shorter than current price come Saturday.

isn't often you see one bookie going 16s on a horse and
another 7/1 but that the difference between betvic and stan
james on this one

bigcat13

Slattsy wrote: »

Katenko out.

Ballynagour wins this at a canter (got word) ((seriously i really did)) and it'll go off a lot shorter than current price come Saturday.

So who did you get this "word" off.... was it the horse himself?

ft9

Guess who's back!!!

jimjamcos

bigcat13 wrote: »

So who did you get this "word" off.... was it the horse himself?

Jeez, everyone knows horses can't talk, Big Cat.