Dairy Boom or Bust?

kevthegaff

Lads a lot of lads getting into cows around here with little or no experience. Some are contractors, beef and corn men. Im of the opinion theres no point in large investment in a new setup unless u have a large landblock but some of these lads are starting off on 50-60 acres. i have my reservations, what do ye think?

Timmaay

kevthegaff wrote: »

Lads a lot of lads getting into cows around here with little or no experience. Some are contractors, beef and corn men. Im of the opinion theres no point in large investment in a new setup unless u have a large landblock but some of these lads are starting off on 50-60 acres. i have my reservations, what do ye think?

The solution to both lack of experience and a lack of landbase are partnerships in my view. Of course takes alot of trust and all that.

J DEERE

Never understand why people think if you only have 50 or 60 acres then you're too small to get into milk. Plenty of lads around me milking 40-50 cows and doing alright. Highly efficient farmers can pull a net profit of 800/cow. That's 40k net after costs. Even at 400/cow its 20k. Lot of suckler/beef farmers be very happy to make that.

The previous experience and knowledge of the new entrant will determine a lot.

RobertKK

Once they have a business head on them, know what they are doing, like milking and like cows and plan for the worse, then they will be fine.

bob charles

RobertKK wrote: »

Once they have a business head on them, know what they are doing, like milking and like cows and plan for the worse, then they will be fine.

if you have the above attributes is there money in it so over the medium term. Accounting for all costs, everything

bogman_bass

one things for sure. there is going to be a lot of lads with broken fingers with all these heifers getting trained in

F.D

if there is people changing from suckling or tillage on the 50-60 acres mentioned above they probably can start off slow and fairly cheaply, and wont be used to having much money in there pocket anyway so what ever they do make as long as they didnt over spend at the start will pay off the start up costs pretty quick i'd imagine

mf240

bob charles wrote: »

if you have the above attributes is there money in it so over the medium term. Accounting for all costs, everything

I think so yes.

The right mindset and a bit of common sense is all thats needed.

But if money is the only reason then you won't stick it.

Viewtodiefor

kevthegaff wrote: »

Lads a lot of lads getting into cows around here with little or no experience. Some are contractors, beef and corn men. Im of the opinion theres no point in large investment in a new setup unless u have a large landblock but some of these lads are starting off on 50-60 acres. i have my reservations, what do ye think?

You think that's bad kev! I know a lad who owns 20 acres maybe less. Has just build a parlour and sheds on it sold suckers bought cows , renting another 30 alongside it on a rolling 1 year least, has spent approx 200k on buildings parlour tanks etc and is happy out at it at the minute, milking since April . And defo borrowed most of the money. Plus know another guy just put in brand new westfalia with lots of those things Deval doesn't like I.e. removers etc 14 units plus tank 85k no sheds yet borrowed money too. From what I hear once you mention milk to the banks these days it's not hard to get the cash. That's what I'm seeing around here there is more examples of course. Hope it work out for them but I'm sure there will be tough years down the road

mf240

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

You think that's bad kev! I know a lad who owns 20 acres maybe less. Has just build a parlour and sheds on it sold suckers bought cows , renting another 30 alongside it on a rolling 1 year least, has spent approx 200k on buildings parlour tanks etc and is happy out at it at the minute, milking since April . And defo borrowed most of the money. Plus know another guy just put in brand new westfalia with lots of those things Deval doesn't like I.e. removers etc 14 units plus tank 85k no sheds yet borrowed money too. From what I hear once you mention milk to the banks these days it's not hard to get the cash. That's what I'm seeing around here there is more examples of course. Hope it work out for them but I'm sure there will be tough years down the road

It reminds me of the contracting game.

Some lads will borrow all around them and start with the best of kit.

all flash and no cash

Other lads will buy second hand and work there way up slowly.

Viewtodiefor

mf240 wrote: »

It reminds me of the contracting game.

Some lads will borrow all around them and start with the best of kit.

all flash and no cash

Other lads will buy second hand and work there way up slowly.

The one interesting thing about the first example is he got 45k quota as new entrant , another guy with 120acres applied this year didn't get it, so someone is giving d smaller guy the chance

F.D

if you did want to buy a small bit of quota for next year to get the ball rolling
1)would it be available to buy?
2)how much per ltr would it cost?

kevthegaff

F.D wrote: »

if you did want to buy a small bit of quota for next year to get the ball rolling
1)would it be available to buy?
2)how much per ltr would it cost?

no more quota exchanges next year i think, Jes all these new lads are gona drive land prices mad!

Viewtodiefor

kevthegaff wrote: »

no more quota exchanges next year i think, Jes all these new lads are gona drive land prices mad!

Best leave em at it!

RobertKK

bob charles wrote: »

if you have the above attributes is there money in it so over the medium term. Accounting for all costs, everything

mf240 wrote: »

I think so yes.

The right mindset and a bit of common sense is all thats needed.

But if money is the only reason then you won't stick it.

I agree with mf240.

F.D

I'd think another reason to why people are looking to enter dairying is because of unemployment, during the boom years they were probably making a good income off farm and just having the farm sitting there as a hobby, now after a good few years passing and no sign of new jobs coming, the dust is getting blown off the old milking parlours and cow houses that were left idle for years to try and make a living for themselves

whelan1

F.D wrote: »

I'd think another reason to why people are looking to enter dairying is because of unemployment, during the boom years they were probably making a good income off farm and just having the farm sitting there as a hobby, now after a good few years passing and no sign of new jobs coming, the dust is getting blown off the old milking parlours and cow houses that were left idle for years to try and make a living for themselves

interesting letter on letters to the editor page of the journal this week, its very true about farm workers

countygorey

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

You think that's bad kev! I know a lad who owns 20 acres maybe less. Has just build a parlour and sheds on it sold suckers bought cows , renting another 30 alongside it on a rolling 1 year least, has spent approx 200k on buildings parlour tanks etc and is happy out at it at the minute, milking since April . And defo borrowed most of the money. Plus know another guy just put in brand new westfalia with lots of those things Deval doesn't like I.e. removers etc 14 units plus tank 85k no sheds yet borrowed money too. From what I hear once you mention milk to the banks these days it's not hard to get the cash. That's what I'm seeing around here there is more examples of course. Hope it work out for them but I'm sure there will be tough years down the road

ha ha ha

delaval

After 5-6 years cubicles and milking parlours will be as cheap as 360 diggers were in 08

There is such a race that there will be early fallers I'm afraid.

dar31

delaval wrote: »

After 5-6 years cubicles and milking parlours will be as cheap as 360 diggers were in 08

There is such a race that there will be early fallers I'm afraid.

planning on putting in mew parlour in 3-4 years, hoping to pick up a second hand one handy.
will keep selling stock while demand is there for the next few years, when that dries up will look for one then.
probally get a new one at a good price as milking machine co's will be at flitter all...........heres hoping

bob charles

delaval wrote: »

After 5-6 years cubicles and milking parlours will be as cheap as 360 diggers were in 08

There is such a race that there will be early fallers I'm afraid.

but considering none of the other farming sectors have anything to offer them, then they have the best chance of surviving in milk even if they havnt much of a clue. Other farming enterprises are hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate

Viewtodiefor

countygorey wrote: »

ha ha ha

Don't get ya gorey?

rahin man

has anybody looked at going into dairy similar to opening a small local spar or centra?

20 - 40k rent a year for a suitable unit
100k plus to fit out a shop
200k plus to stock it
Pay vat/rates/wages/prsi/paye...etc etc

My point is if you did open a small centra the locals would say "fair play"

You talk about going into cows the locals say "fcukin ejett"

Disclamer..i do not work for centra/spar and i have considered going into cows

countygorey

Viewtodiefor wrote: »

Don't get ya gorey?

2o acres owned and a serious amount of debt

freedominacup

bob charles wrote: »

but considering none of the other farming sectors have anything to offer them, then they have the best chance of surviving in milk even if they havnt much of a clue. Other farming enterprises are hemorrhaging money at an alarming rate

Will we hear the pitter patter of tiny (dairy) heifers hooves around the BC ranch any time soon?

bob charles

freedominacup wrote: »

Will we hear the pitter patter of tiny (dairy) heifers hooves around the BC ranch any time soon?

not much point in keep fighting a loosing battle in our game, the definition of Insanity is - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result

leg wax

pricing up how much to go back at it myself the last week, 20 k to spend at the most to milk 45-50 cows and i am still afraid:eek::eek:,that includes a alarm clock am i mad will see:D:confused:

Conmaicne Mara

bob charles wrote: »

not much point in keep fighting a loosing battle in our game, the definition of Insanity is - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result

You need a few sheep Bob

Farfield

Rabin man the most wee basic corner shops can employ several staff but a fair size of a dairy farm can't ?? Why

mf240

bob charles wrote: »

not much point in keep fighting a loosing battle in our game, the definition of Insanity is - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result

leg wax wrote: »

pricing up how much to go back at it myself the last week, 20 k to spend at the most to milk 45-50 cows and i am still afraid:eek::eek:,that includes a alarm clock am i mad will see:D:confused:

Listened to all this in 07 when the milk was a great price, not a whimper in 09 when milk was on the floor,

kevthegaff

I think lads shouldnt be heavily investing in it, serious pressure in a bad year!

bob charles

mf240 wrote: »

Listened to all this in 07 when the milk was a great price, not a whimper in 09 when milk was on the floor,

take a look at the figures over the last 7 years, would you prefer to be a dairy, beef, tillage,sheep:D et al farmer

td5man

bob charles wrote: »

take a look at the figures over the last 7 years, would you prefer to be a dairy, beef, tillage,sheep:D et al farmer

None of the above. :-)

bob charles

td5man wrote: »

None of the above. :-)

spoil sport, but I agree 100%

kevthegaff

Bob theres a fair difference between an established dairy farmer and lads starting up, Im at it 6 years and still have alot of infrastructure to be still put in(i had 90 cubicles already there). If i had started at beef i wouldnt have had to invest much and would have had the SFP+Reps and some profit. I think its great if you inherit a dairy farm, but to start from the beginning you will be under pressure for a fair few years

bob charles

kevthegaff wrote: »

Bob theres a fair difference between an established dairy farmer and lads starting up, Im at it 6 years and still have alot of infrastructure to be still put in(i had 90 cubicles already there). If i had started at beef i wouldnt have had to invest much and would have had the SFP+Reps and some profit. I think its great if you inherit a dairy farm, but to start from the beginning you will be under pressure for a fair few years

And beef facilities cost nothing, your looking at investing €750 per adult beef animal (for ROR of F all) in housing which you have to have by law, seems most arent even abiding by these laws :mad:. You dont just get SFP if you started 6 years ago, and REPS isnt available if your farming intensively as you would have to, to make a living at other sectors. Is it just me or is the misconception amongst dairy farmers that they are the only ones who work hard for a reasonable living. I know plenty of people working hard and having nothing

freedominacup

bob charles wrote: »

And beef facilities cost nothing, your looking at investing €750 per adult beef animal (for ROR of F all) in housing which you have to have by law, seems most arent even abiding by these laws :mad:. You dont just get SFP if you started 6 years ago, and REPS isnt available if your farming intensively as you would have to, to make a living at other sectors. Is it just me or is the misconception amongst dairy farmers that they are the only ones who work hard for a reasonable living. I know plenty of people working hard and having nothing

I'd say it's just you bob:D. I know several guys in my own area working hard and making a dece, a living at enterprises other than dairying. Farming intensively on reasonable acreages.

freedominacup

mf240 wrote: »

Listened to all this in 07 when the milk was a great price, not a whimper in 09 when milk was on the floor,

Legs would have the advantage on bob in this one. He knows the game and was good at it. Like riding a bike legs it'll all come back to you esp the alarm clock.

onyerbikepat

Jeez, Legs and Sir Bob both getting into Dairying. Ye'll have us all thinking about it now.
I wonder how many of these slatted sheds built in the last few years could be converted to diary units. Bad oversight from the department if they can't.

1chippy

ah come on legs. there isnt many exporters out there this year, but how would you feel going from extreme muscle to probably some of the most miserable looking animals put on this planet.

moy83

1chippy wrote: »

ah come on legs. there isnt many exporters out there this year, but how would you feel going from extreme muscle to probably some of the most miserable looking animals put on this planet.

I believe he has blues that are throwing out gallons of milk so is going to keep milking them !

1chippy

i cant see him bucket feeding parts or blues.

moy83

1chippy wrote: »

i cant see him bucket feeding parts or blues.

He had a bucket fed part this year already , just to ease himself back into the game

leg wax

1chippy wrote: »

ah come on legs. there isnt many exporters out there this year, but how would you feel going from extreme muscle to probably some of the most miserable looking animals put on this planet.

well its a great opertunity to get rid of all the older cows and cows that are producing bad calves, staying in sucklers as well on the out farm as long as he does not sell it, hoping the rubbish will buy my maiden heifers and only a small start up cost for the parlour.

Pacoa

Does what happens here in Ireland really matter on a global scale? We're only a small fish in a big pond so i recon we could double output here and it wouldn't have much affect on world markets or am i wrong? It will be what happens in the rest of europe that will affect milk prices and as they have high costs i can't see them expanding much but of course its eastern europe that could be the real danger IMHO.

benjydagg

I'm hoping to join up with a dairy farmer to contract graze for him. It might be better for me rather than putting in a Lely Astronaught (robot)...

delaval

benjydagg wrote: »

I'm hoping to join up with a dairy farmer to contract graze for him. It might be better for me rather than putting in a Lely Astronaught (robot)...

Well that depends on the deal

bob charles

delaval wrote: »

Well that depends on the deal

I have heard of a few very one sided deals, some people havnt a clue on their costs.

benjydagg

delaval wrote: »

Well that depends on the deal

True. Last year, I grazed 80 in calf for 6 months and charged €100 each.
This wasn't my best idea!! But I was just testing the water.

Can any of you shine a light as to what should be charged?

bob charles

benjydagg wrote: »

True. Last year, I grazed 80 in calf for 6 months and charged €100 each.
This wasn't my best idea!! But I was just testing the water.

Can any of you shine a light as to what should be charged?

You cant beat cheap grass to make money, bet there is someone on here courting you already:o

benjydagg

bob charles wrote: »

You cant beat cheap grass to make money, bet there is someone on here courting you already:o

That's what I'm trying to gauge Bob.. I lost out badly this year as I had to spread extra nitrogen. I think Teagasc quoted €1 per day, for grass and herding. Per adult animal. The majority of my land is in tillage at the moment. 2015... Who knows????