Megatron Day

UrbanSea

Brilliant day's racing tomorrow. Opened a Coral account there just to get the 25/1 on Becauseicouldntsee in the 3.45 at Cheltenham. Huge,huge price

kiers47

Who took my 25/1 on Cape of Approval? Vengence will be had!! Was he pricewised or something?

Why o why did i not back him this morning!!

UrbanSea

I said the very same thing an hour ago kiers

Francie Barrett

Not a big fan of the flat, but it was pretty clear to me that Kingsbarns didn't race to full potential at Leopardstown last time out. Considering that ground and distance will suit it - 16/1 just looks miles too big.

Francie Barrett

The first at Ascot also looks interesting. I wonder if Eye of the Storm would be priced so high if Joseph was onboard? I take it he hasn't made it over his weight?

Francie Barrett

Final selection is Dark Lover in the 5:00 at Cheltenham, horse will love the distance and the ground should suit - also helps that it likes Cheltenham too.

ste2010

Megatronicus 10,000
Balder success
Vulcanite
Dawn approach
Tour des champs
Sametegal

kiers47

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The first at Ascot also looks interesting. I wonder if Eye of the Storm would be priced so high if Joseph was onboard? I take it he hasn't made it over his weight?

There is little chance of him getting near 8-11. He struggles to do 9-0 at the best of times. I would think his price is correct considering he is taking a big hike in class running against proven group horses and a solid gold cup winner in Estimate. Your right though he is an interesting one and i definitely wouldnt be ruling him out.

mr.jingle

A small each way lucky 15 on Johnny Murtaghs 4 rides tomorrow. Gordon Lord Byron for some reason I fancy tomorrow, shouldnt really as the trip with conditions really wont suit but just have an inkling he will go close, I must be mental!

Twiston Davies horses at Cheltenham aswell for tomorrow he always has a good start around there every year

Oh and of course the megatron of Liverpool to get everyone off to the best start.

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Not a big fan of the flat, but it was pretty clear to me that Kingsbarns didn't race to full potential at Leopardstown last time out. Considering that ground and distance will suit it - 16/1 just looks miles too big.

Scratch that - the draw is horrible.

Slattsy

Dont have time to go into much details but its one of those days racing where i fancy quite a few!!

Ascot:
High Jinx 14/1 EW
Maarek
Dawn Approach
CDA (^double with DA)

Cheltenham
Creepy
Vulcanite
Handazan
Balthazar King (NAP)

All of these should win. Easily. Maximize your payout by doing two Lucky 15's as well as singles

jimjamcos

Ascot

1.45: Backed Eye of the Storm each-way earlier @ 8/1. Good form from Classic trial at beginning of season ahead of Galileo Rock and Libertarian. Been brought along slowly since but showed at Listowel that he handles soft and seen out the 2m fine against the consistent Missunited LTO. O'Brien said they weren't sure he'd want the trip that day but the money for him suggested otherwise and AOB marked him down as Cup horse for next year afterwards. Can't be having the fav at her price, given the slight unknown over ground.

2.55: Talent is a worthy favourite but have backed The Lark each-way @ 8/1. Like the favourite, she wont mind the going and was impressed with the way she won LTO, even though it was an average race.

3.30: Hoping the break will have done Dawn Approach some good. Don't think the ground will inconvenience him (unlike SFR) and @ 5/2, he's the main bet for me. Don't really rate Olympic Glory at this level and the French horse probably got it to easy up front beating him LTO. Have also had a couple of small each-way savers on Gordon Lord Byron (12/1) and Kingsbarns (16/1). While a mile is undoubtedly not GLB's best trip, he seen it out ok at Leopardstown, is in good form, and has the perfect pilot to ride him for the trip in Murtagh. Kingsbarns is the unknown but his comfortable win in RP Trophy last season gives him an each-way chance if anywhere near what was expected of him this season. Both himself and GLB will have no problem with ground.

4.05: Farhh, Farhh, Farhh. CDA looked good at Arc meeting but didn't beat much and while he's helped by conditions tomorrow, he hasn't convinced me enough that he's anywhere near his best. Ground is a slight worry for Farhh but should be ok hopefully. He's as consistent a horse as we'll see and has only ever been beaten by the likes of Moonlight Cloud, Frankel, Nathaniel and So You Think while all were in their prime. CDA is no longer in his prime and @ 7/2, Farhh is a Nap for me tomorrow.

Aotearoa

dark lover nap

Dubron

jimjamcos wrote: »

Ascot



4.05: Farhh, Farhh, Farhh. CDA looked good at Arc meeting but didn't beat much and while he's helped by conditions tomorrow, he hasn't convinced me enough that he's anywhere near his best. Ground is a slight worry for Farhh but should be ok hopefully. He's as consistent a horse as we'll see and has only ever been beaten by the likes of Moonlight Cloud, Frankel, Nathaniel and So You Think while all were in their prime. CDA is no longer in his prime and @ 7/2, Farhh is a Nap for me tomorrow.

Soft ground wouldn't worry me in the slightest with regard to Farhh, being by Pivotal.

Francie Barrett

Slattsy wrote: »

Ascot:
High Jinx 14/1 EW
Maarek
Dawn Approach
CDA (^double with DA)

Not sure I could be backing Maarek - it's had 2 very tough races in the last month and I suspect it needs a break.

jimjamcos

Dubron wrote: »

Soft ground wouldn't worry me in the slightest with regard to Farhh, being by Pivotal.

Yea, only thing that'd worry me is that he's never ran on proper soft before. The worst he's ran on is GS and the one time he was down to run on heavy he was pulled. It's probably just by circumstance (and injury absence) that he's never had to run on soft though.

SRFC

Farhh looks a certainty but will he be the same after all the time off?? Wouldnt go near CDA looked good last time but if you seen his previous races this year you wouldnt back him at his price tomorrow with robbed money,would lump on Farhh if it wasnt for his absence dunno weather to back him at all.

UrbanSea

I'd rather Morandi chased home Intello a few times this year, won a gr.1 on heavy last year and a gr.3 by over a dozen lengths

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

Farhh looks a certainty but will he be the same after all the time off?? Wouldnt go near CDA looked good last time but if you seen his previous races this year you wouldnt back him at his price tomorrow with robbed money,would lump on Farhh if it wasnt for his absence dunno weather to back him at all.

Judging by the Lockinge, any absence shouldn't be an excuse with him. The fact that he's such a fragile horse and difficult to keep right, in a way, would suggest he's good to go tomorrow. There's no way the Sheikh would allow his trainer to run such an valuable animal in tomorrows conditions if he wasn't 100% ready to do himself justice.

UrbanSea

Just looking back that really was a woeful Lockinge he won

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Just looking back that really was a woeful Lockinge he won

Yea, wasn't great tbf.

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Judging by the Lockinge, any absence shouldn't be an excuse with him. The fact that he's such a fragile horse and difficult to keep right, in a way, would suggest he's good to go tomorrow. There's no way the Sheikh would allow his trainer to run such an valuable animal in tomorrows conditions if he wasn't 100% ready to do himself justice.

You've convinced me Im on :cool: All aboard the Farhh train choo choo :pac:


Cant get away from his grp1 form with frankel and the likes CDA isnt the same horse and the rest arent up to this level.


Cant have Kingsbarns,It would take a miracle for O Brien to train this to win a grp1 like this,probably wont have a bet maybe Olympic Glory and DA to fight it out again.

rossom

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Not sure I could be backing Maarek - it's had 2 very tough races in the last month and I suspect it needs a break.

Maarek is a battled hardened sprinter who has seen less action this season than he did when winning this last year. Won this 6 days after running in a Listed on what was his 4th run in 35 days. I won't be using needing a break as an excuse if he gets beaten as he takes his racing very well.

Mocha Joe

Ahzeemah
Hot Snap
Maarek
Dawn Approach
Faarh

Lucky 31

For some reason I'm very confident. :pac:

rossom

With regards to Maarek, I definitely think he's the horse they all have to beat as he comes here on the back of a super performance when winning the Abbaye but I do think he's a little skinny at the moment as there are a few concerns. Firstly, there is no confirmed front runner in the race and there is a very real danger that it won't be a well run race which definitely will not suit him. Secondly, if rain doesn't arrive tonight it wouldn't surprise me if the jockeys say its good to soft after the first race which definitely isn't ideal for Maarek who loves his mud. I'm going to wait and see if he drifts to 7/2-4/1 (which I think he will) before backing him and although I am confident he can win this race for the 2nd year running I am definitely airing with a side of caution given the few doubts I have. Regardless of the result I still love him to bits.

rossom

3.20 Kelso

Rapidolyte De Ladalka 11/2

Simon Shirley-Beavan's very lightly raced and unexposed Rapidolyte De Ladalka was successful in 3 of his 5 completed starts last season and I think a mark of 127 is well within the grasp of this dour staying 8 year old. Having looked likely to win barring bad momentum sapping interference and falling at the last at Kelso over 1f shorter than today on racecourse debut back in May 2012, Rapidolyte De Ladalka ran out an impressive winner on his 2nd start over fences after a 244 day break when running out an impressive 8L winner (2 finishers) when beating See What Happens with that rival bringing some useful form prior to that race over 26f at Catterick back in January. On his next start, Rapidolyte De Ladalka found the drop back to 21f at Wetherby against him when well beaten in a good Novice Chase 11 days later but he soon got back on track when successful on handicap debut at Catterick when making it 2-2 over that C+D when winning by 9L. Returned to Novice Company, Radpidolyte De Ladalka made it a perfect 3-3 over Catterick's 26f trip back in February when winning by an eased down 1L in first time cheekpieces from Makethe Mostofnow who came into that contest on the back of an excellent 4th in a competitive handicap chase at Haydock that has worked out very well. Rapidolyte De Ladalka's last start came in the Irish Grand National, which I think says a lot about how he is rated, off a 1lb higher mark of 128 with a perfectly respectable 11th when he did himself no favours by planting himself at the start briefly which saw him at the back of the field.

One thing to note about Rapidolyte De Ladalka is that he often gets badly outpaced during the contest, looking like a hopeless cause in the process, before finishing very strongly and its clear he'll stay all day. Due to his run style, I'd highly recommend backing him in running on Betfair as I'm sure at some stage he'll hit a double figure price in running to due looking like he's sure to tail off. The fact he comes here on the back of 201 day absence is no concern to me given he clearly goes well fresh and although 13lb higher than his win in handicap company I definitely feel he's better than his current mark of 127. Given that all 3 of his wins came at Catterick, there could be a slightly concern that he's suited to that very unique track but I think he would have won on debut at Kelso if a little luckier and he seems to go perfectly well at this course judged on that run too. Regular jockey Barry Keniry takes the ride and this represent trainer Simon Shirley-Beavan's first runner since May (which won). In addition to the trainer having a fantastic 5-9 record over fences at the track, he's got a brilliant record of 9-19 with his chasers under rules and he's done really well with his small string of horses. With the return to a small field sure to suit, I'm confident of a big run today from Rapidolyte De Radalka and I can see him powering up the run in to score having looked badly outpaced and in danger of tailing off earlier in the race.

rossom

3.45 Cheltenham

Becauseicouldntsee 20/1

Couldn't agree more with Urban here. Noel Glynn's admirable 10 year old Becauseicouldntsee loves it at Cheltenham having finished runner up at the Festival back in 2012 and 2010 and if the application of first time cheekpieces don't have a negative impact he looks potentially chucked in off a mark of 124. With a record off 2-2-5 at the Cheltenham Festival, Becauseicouldntsee ran a blinder earlier this year in the Kim Muir off a mark of 140 when finishing a gallant 5th (was in 2nd jumping the last; usual 2 out) before getting very tired up the run in and although his 3 subsequent runs over fences were very poor in the Grand National, Bet365 Gold Cup and John Smith's Summer Cup I am stunned to see the handicapper drop him 13lb for those runs at the end of very tough campaign. Having taken the summer off, Becauseicouldntsee returned over hurdles in a Novice hurdle at Listowel last month and despite that 2m trip being way too short for him he ran an absolute blinder when finishing beaten a little over 5L in 3rd in a race that has seen the runner up go on to score in a Grade 3 on his next start and that race showed that all his ability and enthusiasm remains. A much better chaser, Becauseicouldntsee ran another very respectable race over hurdles on his last start 16 days ago and it seems like having a run over timber before going back over fences works extremely well for Becauseicouldntsee with 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase and Kim Muir as well as his 5th at Cheltenham this year all being preceded by a run over hurdles. A horse who does not deserve just 2 career wins in 28 starts, (last in February 2010) there is no doubting the horse's enthusiasm for me and if the application of first time cheekpieces have any positive impact then today could very well be the day he gains a long overdue win off a lovely looking handicap mark of 124 returned to a venue he loves. A perennial front runner, Becauseicouldntsee carries a lovely racing weight of just 10-5 today with Martin Ferris going over for just one ride and this is undoubtedly his easiest opportunity for some time. One thing I'd like to point out in case he runs disappointingly is that all his best performances have come when carrying a lot of weight so perhaps the low weight may not suit him but there is no doubting that Noel Glynn's charge is on a very, very good mark. If jumping cleanly, I forecast a very big run from Becauseicouldntsee see and I will be absolutely chuffed if he can score here today at a price that may turn out to
be absolutely ridiculous come 4pm.

4.25 Cheltenham

Phoenix Flight 25/1

I've been waiting nearly a year for James Evans' 8 year old Phoenix Flight to be seen over hurdles and I think the handicapper has given him a massive chance by dropping him 10lb to 115 for what I thought was a very eye catching run on his last start over hurdles off a mark of 125 at Southwell last November. Better known for his flat exploits, Phoenix Flight career highlights include finishing a never nearer 3rd off a mark of 86 over 20f at Royal Ascot back in June 2011 and a never nearer 3L beaten 6th in the Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap later that season and on his day he's a very useful animal. Very lightly raced over hurdles in recent years, Phoenix Flight was a heavily eased 14L winner of a Maiden Hurdle at Market Rasen in back in May 2011 and he followed that up on his next start of hurdles at Leicester when winning by a nose from the now 135 rated Rowan Tiger in December that year on what was his 2nd last run over hurdles. Phoenix Flight's last run over hurdles came in November last year off a mark of 125 in a race where he massively caught my eye. Under Timmy Murphy over the 21f trip, Phoenix Flight took a very keen hold early on in the race and resultantly he pulled himself into the lead after jumping the 5th where he finally settled down. Having jumped the 3rd last, Phoenix Flight looked home and hosed for all money as he was swinging off the bridle about 5L clear of the rest of the field that were driven along and swinging into the home straight it looked as if he jumped the last two he would win easily. However, whether it was his exertions when pulling early on or a lack of race fitness (2nd run back after 8 months off the track and got an easy time of things) but having jumped two out he all of a sudden looked utterly legless and if he was shot as he stopped to nearly a walk as Timmy Murphy eased him to come home a 30L beaten 7th. Despite the finishing position, the way he travelled until late on suggested that he has a future over hurdles and now off 10lb lower down to 115 I definitely think he has the ability to win off this mark. Since that run, Phoenix Flight has been kept to the flat where he has run pretty well on 3 of his 5 starts. A nice jumper, I think Phoenix Flight will find the likely strong pace ideal given his tendency to pull and he has a lovely low racing weight of just 10-2 with Liam Treadwell taking the ride. Trainer James Evans clearly has his horse in excellent form as he landed the Pertemps Qualifier with Trackmate at the track yesterday and I definitely feel that Phoenix Flight may surprise a few and run a really big race at a lovely price today.

sting60

Fury in the last at Ascot 14/1.This horse Has cost me money this year but today he has dropped to an all time low.The soft ground will help as he is a come from behind horse.IMO he is the best horse in the race and look in running he should win.

Francie Barrett

rossom wrote: »

Maarek is a battled hardened sprinter who has seen less action this season than he did when winning this last year. Won this 6 days after running in a Listed on what was his 4th run in 35 days. I won't be using needing a break as an excuse if he gets beaten as he takes his racing very well.

True, but historically this has been a race for 3 to 4 year olds with the odd 5 year old winner. Maarek is now 6 and I just feel after a hard season it's asking a lot for it to come and win here again.

Colonel Sanders

Missed the 9/4 Samategal which is disappointing. Price changed as I was depositing. VD were still going it but might as well be on the moon

Back Man U -1 at 2.11 on the Asians

mike65

What's the weather doing?

superfurry1

Fingeronthepulse is 33-1 with paddy power 2.35 cheltenham 3rd in race last year james huxham on board taking weight off good shout i think:)

mike65

Just for the laugh

ASCOT 13:45 QIPCO LONG DISTANCE CUP 2m
19-10-2013 13:45
Win or E/W
Ahzeemah @ 9.00 (GP)

ASCOT 14:20 QIPCO CHAMPIONS SPRINT STAKES 6f
19-10-2013 14:20
Win or E/W
Jack Dexter @ 6.00 (GP)

ASCOT 14:55 QIPCO FILLIES AND MARES STAKES 1m 4f
19-10-2013 14:55
Win or E/W
Dalkala @ 5.00 (GP)

ASCOT 15:30 QUEEN ELIZABETH II STAKES 1m
19-10-2013 15:30
Win or E/W
Olympic Glory @ 5.50 (GP)

ASCOT 16:05 QIPCO CHAMPIONS STAKES 1m 2f
19-10-2013 16:05
Win or E/W
Cirrus Des Aigles @ 2.50 (GP)

UrbanSea

Having two more bets. Tartak in the second at Cheltenham at 14s, has plummeted in the weights and ran well in the Byrne Plate at the festival.

Irish Spirit has caught the eye in the first at Cork, ran in a gr.3 as a two year old. Shaped with plenty of promise after nearly a year off at Tipperary over five three runs back, beaten over a length. Ran well on her handicap debut at Dundalk when I backed her and I swore I wouldn't back a horse Ian Queally sat on again he was absolutely woeful on her, she was beaten around two lengths. Disappointed at the Curragh last time but she seems to have plenty of pace dropped back to six at 14/1

mailburner

cda now best priced 15/8
that makes more sense

on farhh as it is

UrbanSea

Lads looking again at the last race, anyone backing Olympic Glory to reverse the form with Maxios is absolutely bonkers

ste2010

Is there any looking past estimate in the first at ascot?

mailburner

ste2010 wrote: »

Is there any looking past estimate in the first at ascot?

im thinking the same and 9/4 looks a decent price

UrbanSea

I think that race is much more open than the prices suggest, think it was a terrrible Gold Cup she won I'd be keen enough to leave that race alone

droidman123

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think that race is much more open than the prices suggest, think it was a terrrible Gold Cup she won I'd be keen enough to leave that race alone

Had a nibble on Aiken @14/1 in that one,better horse than the form figures suggest.

UrbanSea

Not sure on Aiken but it is a very trappy race. The prices suggest she is a fair bit above these, yet the whole field is rated within 8lbs of each other, with most of them rated between 112 or 114. She is probably worth a lay at 2/1

Goldcupfav

Strange one to put up with all the good racing on today but there is a horse that interests me in the bumper at Cheltenham today. Werenearlyoutofit trained by Graeme McPherson. Finished 2nd in his only p2p run beaten 3L by the very decent Sizing Rio of Henry De Bromhead's. Sizing Rio went on to win two races over hurdles (including beating Ted Veale at Navan) and a novice chase. His peak rating over hurdles was 136. Half a length behind him in that p2p was Clondaw Kaempfer of Donald McCain's he went on to win a bumper at Fairyhouse( beating The Liquidator finished 4th in Champion bumper) and went on to win two hurdle races before pulling up injured in a graded race at Newbury his OR is 140. Horse ran third at Bangor first time out behind Henderson's Karazhan and McCains Clondaw Draft who has a mark of 132 and ran 3rd at Cheltenham yesterday. Second time out won his bumper very well at Warwick after which the trainer described him as a "very very nice horse". Jockey booking of Wayne Hutchinson suggest that they not here for just a spin around today. And its the trainer local track. If trained by a bigger name i doubt the horse would be this price. Horse will probably finished tailed off after this write up but i do think he is worth having an E/W punt on at the 25/1 - 33/1 prices available.

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

Not sure on Aiken but it is a very trappy race. The prices suggest she is a fair bit above these, yet the whole field is rated within 8lbs of each other, with most of them rated between 112 or 114. She is probably worth a lay at 2/1

Just had a more detailed look. Hard to believe sadlers rock is 33-1 given how close he ran azeemah (8-1) in the curragh. Is there any significance that pale mimosa is entered in this race and not also voluers de cours?

UrbanSea

ste2010 wrote: »

Just had a more detailed look. Hard to believe sadlers rock is 33-1 given how close he ran azeemah (8-1) in the curragh. Is there any significance that pale mimosa is entered in this race and not also voluers de cours?

Voluers was sold, Sadlers is quite ground dependant would look a massive price if this was good ground but I just can't trust that horse

sting60

Estimate is a shocking price for value[could win but no value].Eye Of The Storm is shocking value 13/2.What price would the nh mare Missunited be if she was in this race 33/1 ish.EOTS beat her 3/4L getting 7lbs.

brandon_flowers

Cheltenham bets
E/w bet on Becauseicouldntsee 16/1 in the 3.45.
Bayan to win 5/1 in the 15.10

E/w Patent with;
Midnight Thunder 17.30 6/1 - full brother of Mala Beach, hopefully the same sort. Never on the track before though.
Bayan 15.10 5/1 - won nicely in Listowel and is deinitely improving, I think 5/1 is a very good price here.
Sizing Italy 17.00 - won a good beginners chase in Killarney last season and ran well to be second in Galway also

Ascot
Don't usually bet on flat racing too much but I backed Jack Dexter at Ayr and that was a mental race plus carrying top weight so I think he has a better chance today with a smaller field.

Handsome Bob

€1 Lucky at Ascot is all for me:

Harris Tweed @ 9/1
CDA @ 6/4
Dawn Approach @ 5/2
Maarek @ 3/1

slaneylad

5 each way trixie

Astracad 9/1
Kingsbarns 14/1
Ruler of the world 8/1

UrbanSea

Emma Spencer looking fine as ever

UrbanSea

Oh no I forgot this mug presents today

UrbanSea

Johnny Murtagh yet again shows why he is the best jockey in the world.


Does anyone remember Jonjo O'Neill having him tailed off around Fontwell over hurdles :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: