Catagory 5 Tropical Cyclone to strike east Coast of India

savj2

Just checking the GFS for Bay of Bengal later this week and it looks like a tropical cyclone could develop which is normal for this month just after the summer monsoon.

Upper level winds have weakened in the easterly jet and this is making conditions favourable for development.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=w010&HH=156&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0

savj2

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST
Dated: 08-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/03
Sub: Depression over north Andaman Sea: Pre Cyclone watch for North Andhra
Pradesh and Orissa Coasts.
The depression over North Andaman Sea moved westward with a speed of
18 Kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 08
th
October 2013 over north Andaman Sea near latitude 12.0
0
N and longitude 94.5
0
E,
about 200 km east-northeast of Port Blair, 1250 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1350
km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a deep
depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west-
northwestwards and cross Andamn islands between Long island and Mayabandar by
tomorrow morning as a deep depression. It would then continue to move west-
northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards towards north Andhra
Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very
heavy falls at few places would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next
48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over Andaman Islands
during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail
over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea
condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands
during this period.
Damage expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Minor damages to loose and unsecured structures.
Action suggested.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman sea and adjoining east
central Bay of Bengal during next 48 hrs.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

savj2

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.3N 83.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.8N 82.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 92.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC AND A LARGE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 02B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 UNTIL AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CHINA AND STARTS TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS DETERIORATION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERN TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120 AS LAND INTERACTION ERODES THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK DESPITE THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN INDIA. OVERALL, BASED ON THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// NNNN

http://jtwccdn.appspot.com/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0213web.txt

maquiladora

12Z GFS ramps this up to 953mb in 48 hours.

savj2

Perfect conditions for intensification. At 200hPa you can see a clockwise movement of very light winds indicating the storm is well ventilated.

Indian Met saying this will develop to a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. Accuweather saying it will be a moderate hurricane/cyclone.

savj2

Time of issue: 2000 hours IST
Dated: 09-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/10
Sub: Cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
in East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Alert for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coast. Cyclone Warning for
Andaman & Nicobar Island
The cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over east central Bay of Bengal remained
practically stationery, and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, 09
th
October 2013
over near latitude 13.5
0
N and longitude 92.5
0
E, about 220 km north-northwest of Port
Blair, 950km southeast of Paradip, 1100 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The
system would intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would
continue to move west-northwestwards for some time and then northwestwards and
cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between Kalingapatnam and Paradip
by night of 12
th
October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum
sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum
surface wind speed
(kmph)
Category
09-10-2013/
2030
13.6/92.5
65-75 gusting to 85
Cyclonic Storm
09-10-2013/2330
13.8/92.0
70-80 gusting to 90
Cyclonic Storm
10-10-2013/0530
14.3/91.0
75-85 gusting to 95
Cyclonic Storm
10-10-2013/1130
14.7/90.4
85-95 gusting to 105
Cyclonic Storm
10-10-2013/
1730
15.2/89.8
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/
0530
15.7/88.3
115-125 gusting to 140
Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/
1730
16.5/87.1
135-145 gusting to160
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/
0530
17.3/86.0
155-165 gusting to 180
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730
18.5/85.2
175-185 gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
20.0/84.7
70-80 gusting to 90
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1730
21.2/84.4
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
14-10-2013/0530
22.0/84.4
35-45 gusting to 55
Depression
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very
heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur
over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 12 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy
rainfall would occur in subsequent 24 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 50-60kmph gusting to 70 kmph would prevail
over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours. Sea
condition will be very rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next
24 hrs.
Damage expected over Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor damage
to power and communication lines.
Action suggested.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into Andaman sea and adjoining east
central Bay of Bengal during next 48 hrs. Fishermen out at sea along north AP,
Odisha and West Bengal coast are advised to return to coast

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

maquiladora

175-185 gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm

That would be equivalent to a Cat 3 major hurricane in the Atlantic.

savj2

I find this basin of tropical storms the most interesting even if it is not as active as the Western Pacific basin or Atlantic Basin. The season peaks twice here and doesn't produce tropical cyclones during the peak monsoon season but weaker depressions due to stronger easterly winds at upper levels. We could see another tropical cyclone in this basin before the end of October after the current one.

maquiladora

Upgraded to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm now. The earlier forecasts seemed a bit conservative.

savj2

It's only hitting the very warm waters now. There is a lot of intensification to go with Cyclone Phailin. This is going to be a big tropical cyclone.

maquiladora

Dvorak figures and sat imagery suggest a much stronger storm than the last Indian met service update. Dvorak suggests it could be 200+ km/h now. Very real chance it become a Super Cyclonic Storm.

savj2

Time of issue: 1930 hours IST Dated: 10-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/17 (Orange Message)
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm,
PHAILIN
over East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.
The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over east central Bay of Bengal moved
northwestwards slightly intensified further and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today the 10
th
October 2013 near latitude 15.5
0
N and longitude 90.0
0
E, about 650km southeast of Paradip,
700km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would continue to
move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12
th
October, 2013 as a
very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 175-185 kmph.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
10-10-2013/
1730
15.5/90.0
135
-
145
gusting to 160
Very
Severe Cyclonic Storm
10-10-2013/
2330
15.8/89.0
145
-1
5
5 gusting to 170
Very
Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/0530
16.2/88.2
1
55
-1
65
gusting to 180
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/1130
16.6/87.5
1
65
-1
75
gusting to 190
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/1730
17.0/86.9
1
75
-1
85
gusting to
200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/0530
17.9/85.8
1
75
-1
85
gusting to
200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730
19.2/85.0
1
75
-1
85
gusting to
200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
20.2/84.5
80-90
gusting to 10
0
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1730
21.2/84.2
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
14-10-2013/0530
22.2/83.8
40-50 gusting to 60
Depression
(A)
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i)
Heavy Rainfall:
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very
heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastal
Odisha commencing from 12
th
October 2013 morning. It would continue and extend to interior
Odisha and coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal from 13
th
morning. Rainfall at most places
with heavy to very heavy rainfall would also occur at a few places over north coastal Andhra
Pradesh commencing from 12
th
Oct 2013 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur
over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 13
th
Oct. 2013.
(ii)
Gale wind:
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence
along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast from 11
th
morning. It would increase in
intensity with gale wind speed reaching 175-185 kmph along and off coastal districts of north
coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off
Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough from 11
th
morning and will
become phenomenal on 12
th
October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West
Bengal coast during the above period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of around 1.5-2.0 m above astronomical
tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and communication line. Minor disruption of rail
and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to
agricultural crops.

(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West
Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.
Following actions are suggested
when the cyclone would be 500 km from the coast (from 11
th
October 2013).
Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious
regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.
(B)
Warning for Andaman and Nicobar Islands
(i)
Heavy rainfall
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would
occur over Andaman Islands during next 24 hrs..
(ii)
Squally wind
Squally winds speed reaching 40 - 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would continue to prevail prevail over
Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very
rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 12 hrs.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 12 hrs.

maquiladora

Wow. Dvorak is up to 7.0 to 7.5 now. What a storm. This would be approaching Cat 5 intensity if it were in the tropical Atlantic. Hopefully is goes through an eyewall replacement that will weaken it some because there is neither shear nor cooler waters ahead.

savj2

Excellent graphic.

Look at the cloud movement well away from the storm at upper levels. There is clockwise movement indicating high pressure directly over the storm at 200 hPa. That is making a very good outflow from the Cyclone so there is no wind shear like you said. I reckon this will become a super cyclonic storm before landfall which is 2 days away yet. The storm is moving slowly.

maquiladora

JTWC have it reaching Super Cyclonic status by midnight (our time) and eventually getting up to 250 km/h with gusts 300+ km/h. But even this might be a little too conservative...

Chris The Hacker

I can imagine the death toll will be enormous considering how poor and densely populated this part of the world is.

maquiladora

Chris The Hacker wrote: »

I can imagine the death toll will be enormous considering how poor and densely populated this part of the world is.

Hopefully as many people as possible along the coast will get the message and be able to move somewhere safer inland.

Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. That terrible storm hit Northeast India in the Indian state of Odisha (formerly called Orissa) near the city of Bhubaneswar, as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds on October 29, 1999. The mighty cyclone, which peaked at Category 5 strength with 160 mph winds and a 912 mb central pressure shortly before landfall, drove a storm surge of 26 feet (8 meters) onto the coast. The storm stalled just inland, dumping torrential rains on portions of India already saturated from the landfall of Category 4 Tropical Cyclone 04B just twelve days before. The catastrophe killed 9,658 people and left $2.5 billion in damage (1999 dollars), India's most expensive and fourth deadliest tropical cyclone in the past 100 years. Although Phailin is expected to hit the same province of India that the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit, Phailin's landfall location is predicted to fall about 100 miles farther to the south, in a region where the coast is not as low-lying. This should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge.

Chris The Hacker

maquiladora wrote: »

Hopefully as many people as possible along the coast will get the message and be able to move somewhere safer inland.

I just read that quote on Jeff Masters' blog. I've been following Weather Underground for as long as I can remember.

10,000 deaths is nothing compared to ones that hit Bangladesh, as it's a very low-lying part of the world.

Plenty of time for Indians evacuate seeing as it's a slow-moving cyclone, but some people would be too poor to travel I can imagine.

maquiladora

ADT estimates have Phailin at 920mb and winds 265 km/h right now. So based on ADT it's already Super Cyclonic/Cat 5, with further strengthening to go. A pity we have don't the hurricane hunters out there.

savj2

Wunderground expect Cyclone Phailin to weaken slightly before landfall. Sea temperatures are lower nearer the shore:

savj2

It's a monster.

maquiladora

Latest ADT estimate has it at 914mb and 275 km/h (!)

maquiladora

Just keeps getting stronger...latest ADT estimates : 910mb, 281 km/h, which if those estimates where accurate, would make Phailin as intense as Katrina.

I'm not sure why the Indian met service figures are so much lower, it looks incredible on satellite.

Stunning structure :

savj2

They have not upgraded this to super cyclonic storm and don't envisage doing so.

savj2

Time of issue: 2330 hours IST Dated: 10-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/18 (Orange Message)
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm,
PHAILIN
over East central Bay of Bengal:
Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.
The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over east central Bay of Bengal remained
practically stationary slightly intensified further and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today the 10
th
October 2013 near latitude 15.5
0
N and longitude 90.0
0
E, about 650km southeast of Paradip,
700km southeast of Gopalpur, and 700 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would continue to
move northwestwards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast between
Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by evening of 12
th
October, 2013 as a
very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum sustained wind speed of 190-200 kmph.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
10-10-2013/
2030
15.5/90.0
160
-
170
gusting to 185
Very
Severe Cyclonic Storm
10-10-2013/
2330
15.8/89.0
165
-1
7
5 gusting to 190
Very
Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/0530
16.2/88.2
1
75
-1
85
gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/1130
16.6/87.5
1
75
-1
85
gusting to 200
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
11-10-2013/1730
17.0/86.9
1
85
-1
95
gusting to
210
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/0530
17.9/85.8
190-200 gusting to
215
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1730
19.2/85.0
190-200 gusting to
215
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/0530
20.2/84.5
80-90
gusting to 10
0
Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/1730
21.2/84.2
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
14-10-2013/0530
22.2/83.8
40-50 gusting to 60
Depression
(A)
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
(i)
Heavy Rainfall:
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very
heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over coastal
Odisha commencing from 12
th
October 2013 morning. It would continue and extend to interior
Odisha and coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal from 13
th
morning. Rainfall at most places
with heavy to very heavy rainfall would also occur at a few places over north coastal Andhra
Pradesh commencing from 12
th
Oct 2013 and isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur
over coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from 13
th
Oct. 2013.
(ii)
Gale wind:
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would commence
along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast from 11
th
morning. It would increase in
intensity with gale wind speed reaching 175-185 kmph along and off coastal districts of north
coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of Sea along and off
Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast will be rough to very rough from 11
th
morning and will
become phenomenal on 12
th
October 2013. It will be rough to very rough along and off West
Bengal coast during the above period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of around 2.0-2.5 m above astronomical
tide would inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and
Srikakulam district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive
damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and communication line. Minor disruption of rail
and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to
agricultural crops.
(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West
Bengal coast are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.
Following actions are suggested
when the cyclone would be 500 km from the coast (from 11
th
October 2013).
Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious
regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.
(B)
Warning for Andaman and Nicobar Islands
(i)
Heavy rainfall
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would
occur over Andaman Islands during next 24 hrs..
(ii) Squally wind
Squally winds speed reaching 40 - 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would continue to prevail prevail over
Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very
rough along and off Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 12 hrs.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea during next 12 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 11
th
October, 2013.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

SnowDrifts

That is a massive system - circa 800 miles? That would cover Ireland, UK, France and most of Germany on a European scale. :eek:

dexter647

Very surprised there is very little about this monster on sky bbc etc...Then again as long as it's no where near the states who cares

Rikand

Got a mention on the rte 2 weather tonight

Mr Cumulonimbus

JTWC giving alot higher wind speeds for this, peaking at 135 KT winds tomorrow evening according to their 2100Z advisory.

Image at 0Z. Eye is incredibly small now.

rickdangerouss

dexter647 wrote: »

Very surprised there is very little about this monster on sky bbc etc...Then again as long as it's no where near the states who cares

Only thing I saw on the BBC was the link below.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24481829

Might get more news closer to land fall?

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

JTWC giving alot higher wind speeds for this, peaking at 135 KT winds tomorrow evening according to their 2100Z advisory.

It's likely already at or above that. ADT estimate puts it at 152 knots, right now :
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/02B-list.txt

It's a real shame there are no hurricane hunter aircraft that could investigate this.

savj2

India is set to take a devastating blow from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin later Friday through this weekend.
Destructive winds over 160 kph (100 mph), flooding rain of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches), and a crippling storm surge of 4-6 meters (14-20 feet) are all likely near the landfall point of Phailin which is expected across northeastern India on Saturday.
Anyone residing in the states of Odisha or eastern Andhra Pradesh is encouraged to take proper precautions and prepare for life-threatening conditions.

While the Western Pacific Ocean had produced 24 named tropical cyclones so far this year, the Northern Indian Ocean has only seen one named tropical cyclone until Phailin.
The combination of very warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will aid in both development and the continued strengthening of this tropical cyclone through Friday.
A track toward the northwest is expected and Phailin will churn toward northeast India through Friday with further strengthening expected. Phailin has the potential to strengthen into the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane or a super typhoon prior to landfall.
In the Indian Ocean, all storms that reach tropical storm strength are referred to as tropical cyclones and they retain that name regardless of how strong they become. Once they reach the intensity of a hurricane or typhoon, they are referred to as "severe tropical cyclones."

Image courtesy of NOAA from Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin taken Thursday Night, local time
This powerful tropical cyclone is then expected to thrash eastern India, specifically in an area from Visakhapatnam to Brahmapur later Friday through Saturday. This area is home to millions of people, and it appears likely that a portion of this area will face life-threatening conditions this weekend.
After making landfall in northeastern India on Saturday, Phailin will track northwestward through interior India and weaken Sunday into Monday. However, heavy rain of up to several inches could still fall well inland from the coastline causing some flooding through Monday.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-facing-tropical-cyclone/18611884

savj2

It's going to be a Cat 5 before landfall.

savj2

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-cyclone-phailin-20131010

Interesting analysis of Cyclone Phailin from weather.com. Go to 02:11 on the video.

maquiladora

Latest from JTWC. US Navy has had this well above the threshold for Super Cyclonic for some time now. Also, note the 52ft waves.

Mr Cumulonimbus

IR image at 12Z. Eye appears incredibly small.

maquiladora

It seems Phalin has gone through an eyewall replacement. ADT estimated pressure went up to 934mb at 10am this morning, but now it's back gaining strength again, down to 919mb as the storm structure improves on satellite. Cloud tops estimated at -82.01, colder than any time previously.

Mr Cumulonimbus

JTWC 1500Z advisory has the winds at 145 KTS (gusts to 170) at midnight, and at mid-day tomorrow, 130 KTS (gusts 160) not far short of landfall.

Chris The Hacker

What time (Irish time) is this expected to make landfall?

maquiladora

Chris The Hacker wrote: »

What time (Irish time) is this expected to make landfall?

In the hours shortly before or after noon.

Latest ADT estimate : 913mb, 146 knots (270 km/h). Still getting stronger.

maquiladora

Jawdropping New Delhi satellite based estimate figures : 890.4mb, raw Dvorak 7.6.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/PHAILIN_N-list.txt

Cyclone Phailin is set to become the strongest India has ever seen

positron

Watching this closely as I have family and friends in that region.

Reddit /india has an WATCH THREAD going, could possibly get live updates from ground zero.

http://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1o827g/cyclone_phailin_watch_thread/

positron

maquiladora wrote: »

In the hours shortly before or after noon.

Latest ADT estimate : 913mb, 146 knots (270 km/h). Still getting stronger.

This has been brought forward to 2 PM IST, which is 9:30 am here, tomorrow morning.

Iancar29

Only catching up on this , cant believe it grew so much!!!

Thread should be changed if possible very soon to ... " CAT 5 LANDFALL STORM "

Duiske

Just seen this from Ryan Maue.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 32m

Just got our microwave pass of Phailin. No doubt about Category 5. Based on eye temp & structure on satellite, 150-160 knots max wind.

savj2

I don't know how to change the thread title as the edit for that post has gone.

maquiladora

Outer core reaching land now, but still around 12 hours or so before landfall. It's probably peaked intensity.

savj2

The very severe cyclonic storm,
PHAILIN
over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of
Bengal moved west-northwestwards during past 6 hours and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 11
th
October 2013 over westcentral and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.9
0
N and
longitude 87.0
0
E, about 375 km south-southeast of Paradip, 345 km southeast of Gopalpur, and 340
km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam. It would move northwestwards and cross north Andhra
Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur (Odisha) by
evening of today i.e. the 12
th
October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a maximum
sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph
.
Estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position
(Lat.
0
N/ Long.
0
E)
Sustained maximum surface
wind speed (kmph)
Category
11-10-2013/2330
16.9/87.0
210-220 gusting to 235
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/0530
17.5/86.3
210-220 gusting to 235
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/1130
18.3/85.6
210-220 gusting to 235
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
12-10-2013/
1730
19.1/84.9
210-220 gusting to 235
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
1
2-10-2013/2330
19.8/84.5
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
13-10-2013/
1130
20.5/84.1
50-60 gusting to 70
Deep Depression
1
3.10.2013/2330
21.5/83.7
40-50 gusting to 60
Depression
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
Rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥
25 cm) would occur over coastal Odisha during next 48 hrs and over interior Odisha from today afternoon for
subsequent 48 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over
north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hrs. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over
coastal areas of West Bengal commencing from afternoon of today i.e. the 12
th
October.
(i)
Gale wind:
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would continue along and
off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast during next 6 hrs. It would increase in intensity thereafter
with gale wind speed reaching 100-150 kmph from forenoon and 210-220 kmph along and off
coastal districts of north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha at the time of landfall. State of
Sea along and off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast is rough to very rough and will become
gradually phenomenal from afternoon of today. It will be rough to very rough along and off West
Bengal coast during the above period.
(iii)
Storm Surge Guidance:
Storm surge with height of 3.0 to 3.5 mt. above astronomical tide would
inundate low lying areas of Ganjam, Khurda, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts of Odisha and Srikakulam
district of Andhra Pradesh during landfall.
(iv)
Damage expected over Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh:
Extensive damage to kutcha
houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption
of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape
routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.
(v)
Action suggested:
Fishermen out at sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast
are advised to return to coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea. Total suspension of fishing
operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in
affected areas to remain indoors during cyclone landfall.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 12
th
October, 2013.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf

maquiladora

Latest forecast from Dr Masters. The only good news is that it is forecast to make landfall in an area not as low lying as where the 1999 cyclone hit, so even though the surge may be as severe it won't extend as far inland.

Forecast for Phailin

Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (eleven feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. I expect that this is an underestimate, since the 1999 Odisha Cyclone brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast, and Phailin is larger in areal extent and just as strong. The region of the coast where Phailin is expected to hit is not as low-lying, though, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". I expect that Phailin will weaken slightly before hitting the coast, due to interaction with land, and hit as a Category 4 storm with winds of 145 - 155 mph. The 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit land with top winds of 155 mph.

SnowDrifts

Fairly shocking that none of the major news outlets have picked up on this yet. If this was in the Gulf of Mexico, we would have live 24 hour coverage at this stage.

rickdangerouss

SnowDrifts wrote: »

Fairly shocking that none of the major news outlets have picked up on this yet. If this was in the Gulf of Mexico, we would have live 24 hour coverage at this stage.

BBC has this and a weather update video.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-24487130

Maybe you are correct however.