Saturday 5th Oct

SRFC

Fancy two at Gowran,In the first race im taking a chance with FRAWLEY,he was a high class bumper horse bolted up in his maiden hurdle then got injured,he has an engine and could be well in here if fit enough,


Another one I fancy If it gets in as reserve is CONCORDIN in the 3.35 maiden hurdle,not a great race lot of dead wood in it,if it gets in I expect it to win on its high class bumper form.


Tempted to lay Sizing europe as hes getting on in years but maybe rubi light or roi du mee might go off in front and be hard to catch will probably leave the race alone in betting terms.

the groutch

Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix Dollar, 3/1 is a big price in what looks a weak renewal. How the Mark Johnston horse is as short as 5/1 is beyond me.

UrbanSea

Yeah but Cirrus has looked woeful all year and that was a poor race he won last time out. To think he beat Hunters Light ten lengths in this last year, remember evens knocking round in the days before the race what a gift, Moonlight Cloud is the equivalent this year. Also, ground won't be as soft as ideal for him ,won it on heavy last year

SRFC

Decent enough bumper last race Fontwell the ex Kiely horse SAFFRON WELLS is 7/2 on the exchanges if thats there tomorrow im having a good bet at that price its irish form is high class and it got bad rides I thought on occasion.

UrbanSea

You'd do well to get that srfc projected sp 5/4, would you not be worried he's been off for so long, that Hurricane Run gelding has disappointed last twice at very short odds could be better to come from him, looks a trappy enough race not the kind I'd want to get involved in.


Wrote a little preview for the weekend stick the life savings on the following


Pastoral Player 3.50 Ascot 16/1

Wide open heritage handicap with 18 runners and you could probably make a convincing case for at least half a dozen of these, but Hughie Morrison’s six years old gelded son of Pastoral Pursuits seems to have a solid chance at nice odds.

Without a win since June of last year, when winning a 7 furlong Haydock Group 3, he is still a smart horse, having exclusively contested stakes company since then, and was beaten only a short head in the same race this year, and has ran well in other decent contests, notably when a two lengths third to Producer at Newmarket, and did catch the eye when beaten into eighth at Goodwood three runs back, shaping better than the bare result suggested, beaten under three lengths by the smart Garswood, making headway but he probably wouldn’t have won when being hampered in the final furlong.

You have to go back two years since he was stepped outside of handicap company, when he won this very race in 2011 off a four pound lower mark in a very comfortable manner from Smarty Socks, and has always ran well here, beaten a neck by Fanunalter in the Gr.2 Summer Mile last summer (is probably better over this trip), as well as being a good forth over this course and distance in September 2011, having finished third at Royal Ascot in the Wokingham that summer.

The handicapper looks like he has been a tad generous, with the gelding running well for the most part this year even without getting his head in front, and has come down from a high of 113 when finishing half a length behind Libranno in a gr.2 last year to a 105 here tomorrow. Well drawn, he should give a good account of himself back at his favoured track, with the capable Graham Lee aboard. Looks a decent each way shout with the first 4 places being paid ¼ the odds each way, though it is open.

Dandy Boy 2.50 Redcar 7/1

Really talented and likeable colt who rarely runs a bad race and is incredibly versatile, just a shade below top class as a sprinter but can compete at this level up to a mile.

Now a seven year old, he seems to be around for a long time, and loves quick ground which he gets here tomorrow. Without a win this year, he steps up from six furlongs for the first time since finishing a neck second in a really hot Curragh handicap over a mile to the Gr.1 placed Glor na Mara in May 2012 off a mark of 100, and showed his versatility next time out at Royal Ascot when putting up his best ever performance when winning the ultra competitive six furlong Wokingham handicap under Fergal Lynch off a mark of 106, keeping on really strongly to win it a shade cosily.

Probably doesn’t win as much as he should do, though, but did win over this trip at Meydan at the start of 2011 too, and was a good second to the Dewhurst winner Beethoven in the Desmond at Leopardstown the summer before, as well as finishing third to the now stallion Air Chief Marshall over this trip on unsuitably soft ground. Was more prolific earlier in his career, winning a really competitive handicap over this trip at Ascot back in 2010 as well off a mark of 95, as well as a handicap and a conditions race at Dundalk over this trip. This represents a drop down in class for him, and is worth another chance at this trip, and is taken to see off Firebeam in what really isn’t a race for maximum stakes.

Intello Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 12/1

The highlight of the flat year comes again this Sunday and this looks the best Arc since Sea the Stars’. This is literally a mouth watering field, with Orfevre looking to go one better than last year when defying a nightmare draw to get worn down late on by Solemia when causing a 50/1 shock, while the top class looking Treve is easily the best filly to grace racing since the great Zarkava but she has been handed a killer blow by being drawn in 15 of 18, but it would be no surprise if she overcame that and cemented herself as one of the best fillies we’ve seen in recent times following her superlative win in the Diane in a race where the form has worked out rock solid.

Throw in the Japense Derby and Prix Niel winner Kizuna and the Epsom Derby winner Ruler of the World who was unlucky to finish second to Kizuna by a whisker in the Niel when getting a shocking ride by Ryan Moore, as well as the supplemented Leger winner Leading Light and the runaway Grand Prix de Paris winner Flinthsire, not forgetting the multiple gr.1 winner Novellist who hacked up in the King George in record time, easily making this the best Arc in a long time. That said, one horse I haven’t mentioned is one I fancy in Intello.

He probably hasn’t quite reached the heights this year that he hinted at, the son of Galileo was lightly raced at two, having just two starts and winning both, a mile maiden race at Longchamp on good to soft ground before winning a heavy ground Maisons Laffitte conditions race comfortably under hands and heels riding.

Came to Newmarket for his three year old debut back in April with a big reputation, and comfortably justified short odds when beating King George River easily, with the rest of the field well strung out over 9 furlongs. Went to the French Guineas next time out and was the one to take out of the race, looking a shade unlucky in losing, finishing a close up third having ran on incredibly strongly in the final furlong, looking for all the world like he wanted further, and confirmed that impression when absolutely hacking up in the French Derby at Chantilly (10 furlongs), visually looking like a top class colt that day.

It was rather surprising that he was brought back to a mile after that rather than being aimed at any of the Arc trials, and it looked too sharp for him, his class seeing him through at long odds on in a gr.3 at Maison in a warm up for the Marois, and hadn’t the toe to go with the top class Moonlight Cloud and Olympic Glory in what looked a vintage Marois, but kept on really well for third, ahead of top class horses in Dawn Approach and Declaration of War.

Came back from Deauville to Longchamp last month when stepped back up to 10 furlongs to comfortably beat Morandi by half a length ,though he wasn’t as visually impressive as one may have liked coming into this race. That said, he is with the master Arc trainer and is still very lightly raced, even though he hasn’t raced over this trip before being by Galileo and getting a mile on heavy ground at two there is every reason he should, and he finishes off his 10 furlong races very strongly. I can’t help thinking the colt is even better than he has shown, and I got really excited by him the day that he won the Prix de Jockey Club even if the form doesn’t look as strong as It did at the time. He has a plum draw in 9 and hopefully he can land what is a wonderful looking Arc, at the expense of the wonder filly Treve.

One other I really like at Longchamp on Sunday is Moonlight Cloud Prix de la Foret Evens.

Think this is an absolutely crazy price on what is a top top class filly, and she looks even better this year, last time out holding Intello and a top looking field in the Marois, and before that returned from 9 months off when running the duel gr.1 winning sprinter Lethal Force into the ground in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville. Typically for a Foret this is quite a weak looking field and this mare looks an absolute lump job to confirm herself in the same bracket as the likes of Goldikova and Zarkava in terms of top class French fillies in the last few years.

rossom

Urban thought you'd like to know that B Fifty Two's knackers scheduled to come off. Think he's a horse worth following next season.

rossom

2.55 Newmarket

Fort Bastion 15/2

A very talented 2 and 3 year old for Richard Hannon, Fort Bastion has been very disappointing so far this year in his two completed starts but this 4 year old has been gelded since his last run and if that sees him return to the smart form he showed in the past couple of years he could be very tough to beat returned to handicap company off a mark of 102. When trained by Hannon, Fort Bastion showed some very useful form as a Juvenile when finishing runner up to the excellent Maybe on his 2nd start and confirmed that promise with a very good 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in a race that has worked out well. His final start as a 2 year old came in a Group 1 at Longchamp and although last of the 7 (only beaten a little over 3L), I think it says a lot about the regard he was held in. Fort Bastion certainly progressed as a 3 year old where he only had 2 starts but he ran out an impressive victor on both outings. He won a poor Maiden in facile fashion by 12L last May but he was a very impressive winner of a 3 runner Conditions race on his final start later that month. In a race run at a good clip, Richard Hughes made a race winning move as he allowed his mount to quicken up at the 2f pole and Fort Bastion did so in fine style as he lengthened away from his rivals in a short space of time. The runner up Starbound (whose jockey William Buick was probably caught napping) couldn't bridge the gap as Fort Bastion ran out a convincing 4L winner. That form took a substantial boost with Starbound winning a Group 3 at Longchamp comfortably later that year and prior to this year Fort Bastion looked like he was on course for his best season yet.

Prior to making his solitary start for Ed Dunlop, he had an early (and ambitious entry) in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot which I think says a lot about how he was working but he was very disappointing in a Listed handicap at York under top weight off a mark of 106. Owner Sir Robert Ogden quickly moved him to Richard Fahey's yard but his first start was a disaster as he unseated at the start in a Listed contest at York in August. Fort Bastion's first proper run for Fahey again came in a Listed contest last month when pretty disappointing at Newbury in soft ground and Fahey has said in his preview for today's contest that he thought he'd run a much better race than he did and he had been working really well at home. As a result of that under par display, Fort Bastion has been gelded since his last run and I'm hoping that allows him to show his best on the racecourse again as I think he is a very decent animal at his best. Returned to handicap company off a mark of 102, this C+D winner would take an awful lot of beating in my opinion if the gelding operation works and I think he'll appreciate the sounder surface as well. William Buick is an extremely eye catching booking on what will be 3rd start for Richard Fahey (1-2) and first start since 2010 and he also boasts an excellent strike rate of 4-15 for owner Sir Robert Ogden. Well drawn in stall 2, if the gelding operation allows Fort Bastion to return to the level of form he showed during his 2 and 3 year old campaigns then I think he has an outstanding chance of landing this contest before hopefully continuing the progression he look set to show before embarking on his 4 year old campaign.

rossom

3.15 Ascot

Soul 7/1

Saeed Bin Suroor's very decent 6 year old sprinter wasn't at his best on his first couple of starts this year but shaped much better on his latest start in the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Stakes and if taking another step forward then hopefully he can improve on his narrowly beaten 2nd in this last year with a win today. Formerly trained by Peter Snowden in Australia where he picked won a Group 2 and a couple of Listed races, Soul was transferred to the care of Saeed Bin Suroor in early 2012 and he made an instant and emphatic impression when winning comfortably winning a competitive handicap off a mark of 109 at Meydan in March of that year on turf. After an ok introduction on his first British start, Soul ran an absolute blinder in the Diamon Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year when beaten a little over a length in the eventful Black Caviar renewal and he showed that run was no fluke when storming to a 4L success in a Group 3 in the mud on his next start in July 2012. Soul was disappointing on his next 2 starts upped to 7f in Group 2 last year before bouncing back in this corresponding race when going down by a very gutsy head to the progressive Mince on his season finale. Carrying a 4lb penalty that day for his Group 3 success that he doesn't have today, Soul was prominent throughout the contest and after getting into a protracted battle in the final couple of furlongs with eventual victor Mince he went down battling by a head as he lost nothing in defeat. Conceding 8lb to that filly, Soul bumped into one of the most progressive horses of last year in Mince who had impressively won her 3 previous starts and it was another excellent effort from this Australian import. After a long season that started in Meydan and took in 8 races, Soul deservedly went on a near 10 month break before reappearing this season. Although he disappointed on his first 2 starts of the year in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and in a Listed contest at Chester, he ran a race filled with much more promise when 5th in the Betfred Sprint Cup last month and I think he should be cherry ripe for this contest. Getting in here 4lb lighter than last year without a penalty, Silvestre De Sousa is back on board this gelding who he clearly gets on very well with and the softer the ground the better for Soul today (although he can handle a quicker surface). A horse who clearly goes very well over this C+D, if building on his latest run then I think Soul has an excellent chance in this contest and I think 7/1 is a very decent price about him to go one better than last year.

3.50 Ascot

Big Johnny D 9/1

Big Johnny D has been a revelation since joining David Barron and dropped back to 7f this year winning his last 3 starts very convincingly and despite going up another 9lb for his latest success it seems like there is a lot more still to come from this lightly raced 4 year old. A Maiden for John Dunlop having raced over 7f-1m4f, Big Johnny D joined David Barron this year and he's been a revelation for North Yorkshire based handler. After running a solid race in a Maiden on seasonal reappearance and stable debut over 9f, Big Johnny D's form has taken off with 3 successes dropped back to 7f. After landing a Maiden comfortably over at Newcastle back in April, Big Johnny D absolutely destroyed a competitive handicap at Redcar off a mark of 75 easily by over 4L from the front in a contest that has worked out very well and a 13lb rise to a mark of 88 could not stop him as he landed his hat trick in tremendous style. On soft ground at Redcar last month, Big Johnny D again made all from the front to score by a comfortable 2L and although the form of that race looks poor in hindsight it was the manner of his victory that really impressed me the most. He travelled beautifully on the front end for Graham Gibbons and he only had to get slightly serious with him very briefly as he scored another commanding success. Given the visual impression of his victory, a 9lb rise to 97 seems very fair and I am sure that we haven't yet gotten to the bottom of this 4 year old. He takes a huge step up in grade from a 0-90 event to this handicap where Ascription heads the weights off a mark of 109 and although this is going to clearly take a massive increase in performance Big Johnny D has yet to be troubled recently and I see no reason why he can't take to this better race in his stride. Drawn in stall 2, there doesn't seem to be many natural front runners which should suit his front running style but if something does try to set a quick pace in the race it will be interesting if Graham Gibbons tries to get a lead because given how well he travels I think he may be even better sitting just in behind a fast pace. David Barron goes double fisted in this contest and his other runner Bertiewhittle certainly isn't out of things and comes here in good form but I definitely think ground versatile Big Johnny D is his principal hope. If not horrifically inconvenienced by the draw, I expect another big showing from Big Johnny D today and I think 9/1 is an excellent price as I think he has a great chance of taking this very competitive and valuable prize.

sting60

With a welcome change of jockey for both David Marnanes is a major plus.The horses are in great order but more rain would be a negitive.Dandy Boy and Celtic Man are going there in super fit condition and im hoping they run big races.Saffron Wells is a horse that needs a trip and the two extra furlongs today is a plus.He was sold for decent money out of John Kielys yard where friends of mine were under bidders.If fit he should win but he is a horse to follow over a trip.The betting will tell a story with Saffron Wells and if the markets indicate support he is my NAP.Just noticed SW has drifted to 9/2 in places that is an unreal price for a horse who will stay,is better on all known form.

mailburner

on big johnny also at 17/2 (betv)
stan james only firm going 9s last night
great price

Bangor Billy

Heard a good word again for Fireship in the 2.08 at Longchamp. Conditions will suit and connections expect a big run so might be worth an ew interest at 16-1.

paddy no 11

The market movers thing on the HRI website has sizing Europe going from 11/2 to evens and quito drifting from evens to 11/2 on betfred. Presumably someone is going to lose their job and someone else is going to be very rich later today.

carmanard

Theatre Bird in the 3.35 at Gowran e/w, trainer has a disciplinary hearing coming up next week & is facing a ban, last chance to make a few quid before being put on gardening leave.. Don't know if she'll have the class to be winning but she has a very capable pilot onboard & could easily be snatching a place.. Get on early though as there could be a plunge as the day goes on... Also fancy Tropics & Sirius Prospect at Ascot and See The Sun in the two year old trophy at Redcar... Hope rather than expectation

UrbanSea

paddy no 11 wrote: »

The market movers thing on the HRI website has sizing Europe going from 11/2 to evens and quito drifting from evens to 11/2 on betfred. Presumably someone is going to lose their job and someone else is going to be very rich later today.

Has to be a mistake Helen Keller would know those prices weren't tight

UrbanSea

Anyone know if there was rain at Redcar or the going

ste2010

Oliver mckiernan hasn't had a winner in 220 days..mother of Jesus ... Must be something up with his stable

SRFC

The only reason I think Saffron wells is so big is due to the false price of Tizzard bumper horse in cue cards colours and the fact its not a big name trainer training saffron.

0ph0rce0

edit: wrong thread sorry haha

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

The only reason I think Saffron wells is so big is due to the false price of Tizzard bumper horse in cue cards colours and the fact its not a big name trainer training saffron.

It's amazing how often this happens in bumpers..some bookies are so stupid when they price up races based on stuff like this

droidman123

UrbanSea wrote: »

Anyone know if there was rain at Redcar or the going

Official going at Redcar as of 7.15 this morning, good to firm,good in places. No rain expected,possibly a light shower at lunchtime, but nothing significant.

UrbanSea

Topaze Blanche looks a big enough price in the next at Longchamp, totally wide open

superfurry1

Wouldnt be too surprised if third intention hacked up though.

droidman123

Lovely performance there from hannibal the great at fontwell.

BQQ

Think Penitent will run a big race in the next at Longchamps.

He nearly won this race before and the ground will suit him. Ran well lto and stable jockey travels over despite yard having numerous horses with chances at home.

UrbanSea

BQQ wrote: »

Think Penitent will run a big race in the next at Longchamps.

He nearly won this race before and the ground will suit him. Ran well lto and stable jockey travels over despite yard having numerous horses with chances at home.

I know it's easy to say after but I've always had him down as much better seen.

Topaze Blanche not the first horse who should have won at Longchamp but didn't. Dead last to be beaten under half a length

SRFC

UrbanSea wrote: »

I know it's easy to say after but I've always had him down as much better seen.

Topaze Blanche not the first horse who should have won at Longchamp but didn't. Dead last to be beaten under half a length

Complete waste of time backing horses at Longchamp when you see them kind of rides,need pure luck to win best horse doesnt win them big runner races.

droidman123

Go jp you beauty!!!

SRFC

As soon as that clown Mick Fitzgerald said before the race OKLAHOMA CITY was exposed you just knew it was going to bolt up,


Concordin has got in as reserve.

droidman123

SRFC wrote: »

As soon as that clown Mick Fitzgerald said before the race OKLAHOMA CITY was exposed you just knew it was going to bolt up,


Concordin has got in as reserve.

Did it in a double with wedding ring.tbh,before the off i wasnt that confident,maybe it was fitz who put me off it.if i had of been in the bookies just before the race i honestly wouldnt of backed it.

Overthelast

You all saw ascription bolt up a few weeks back? The 3rd, beaten 10L has gone in since. Non runner a week or two ago I think. The big prices are gone because Segal tipped him up (i paid the price for having plenty of scoops last night) but still think he'll win comfortably with fallon on board.

droidman123

Overthelast wrote: »

You all saw ascription bolt up a few weeks back? The 3rd, beaten 10L has gone in since. Non runner a week or two ago I think. The big prices are gone because Segal tipped him up (i paid the price for having plenty of scoops last night) but still think he'll win comfortably with fallon on board.

Took 11-1 on sirius prospect in that one.jockey is a worry for me.

tayto lover

Overthelast wrote: »

You all saw ascription bolt up a few weeks back? The 3rd, beaten 10L has gone in since. Non runner a week or two ago I think. The big prices are gone because Segal tipped him up (i paid the price for having plenty of scoops last night) but still think he'll win comfortably with fallon on board.

Yes indeed.
I have him in an e/w double with Emirates Flyer 3.30 Red.

UrbanSea

Not often you say it but poor ride Ryan Moore

droidman123

You could actually hear all the pissed up loons in the tv at newmarket! Fort bastion for me here.

UrbanSea

Had an eye on Hurricane Ridge here at Gowran hope he doesn't win now didn't back it

Oscars Well.

Another winner for Jessie, she's on fire

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Had an eye on Hurricane Ridge here at Gowran hope he doesn't win now didn't back it

:rolleyes: ****

Overthelast

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Another winner for Jessie, she's on fire

Delighted for her and the team down at Moone. She had a couple of quiet seasons ( think she spent a bit too much time focusing/dabbling with the flat). NH is her forte.

droidman123

In hanagan I trust heeraat for me.

droidman123

One horse race!

droidman123

Took the 10/1 for Ventura mist in the big one at Redcar.thought it would of been a much bigger price.

UrbanSea

CDA very easily

SRFC

Serious performance from CDA good to see him win wasnt the best of races though when you see Plantuer 2nd fav.

Overthelast

Fair play Dean Ivory, amazing how horses can reduce grown men to tears! Love this sport.

BQQ

UrbanSea wrote: »

:rolleyes: ****

I did the same thing with Secret Number earlier.

SRFC

Fallon done well to get that Tropics beat around Windsor.

SRFC

Johan straus looks a serious horse never put into the race by O Brien looks a nice colt will have learned plenty.

droidman123

droidman123 wrote: »

Took the 10/1 for Ventura mist in the big one at Redcar.thought it would of been a much bigger price.

I,ll settle for the 10/1

sting60

Never do trebles but did today and waiting on Pastoral Player 16/1.

Overthelast

Fallon, bizarre.

mailburner

shocking by johnny
too bad to be true