York Day 1

longshotvalue

York 1:55

This season hasn’t gone as well as could have been expected for Angels will Fall, but I thought I saw signs of hope 2 runs ago behind Artistic Jewel at Haydock. On her day she is better than her 98 rating here and has had a decent break since tacking the Kings Stand where understandable she was out of her dept. She is a decent looking 27 on Betfair for tis tomorrow and that looks worth a gamble that she can return to form.

1 Point win 27 Betfair

Face the problem didn’t run well as I’d hoped last time over 6 furlongs, but back here off what looks a good mark over his favourite trip, he could well get back to form. He was a good 6th at Ascot in a similar race of 1lb higher and he will surly hit soon enough with one of these races. The 20/1 Available with Racebets and Paddy Power looks worth a bet.

1 Point win 20/1 racebets/PP

TheMilkyPirate

Angels will fall is one of my favourite horses in training and is definitely better than a mark of 98, Might have a nibble tomorrow.

I'm baraca btw incase anyone was wondering where my beautiful face had gone. (doubtful)

Colonel Sanders

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Angels will fall is one of my favourite horses in training and is definitely better than a mark of 98, Might have a nibble tomorrow.

I'm baraca btw incase anyone was wondering where my beautiful face had gone. (doubtful)

How'd you change your user name??

Overthelast

Think you have to be a paid subscriber

mountai

I"m going to have a cut at Tax Free in the first at York tomorrow. Won this race last year, I know he"s 10 now , but back to min distance and best draw. Worth an E/W bet at 20s. Another old favourite of mine goes in Bellewstown, Mt Weather, loves this track and has won at this distance for the last 3 years. E/W double on both.

Dubron

The 1.55 is such a trappy race. I think Zero Money and Goldream definitely have one of these big field sprint handicaps each in them off their current marks but Above Standard is supposedly well fancied by the yard so it's a race to watch for me.

The International is a cracker! Toronado will go off favourite. Think Al Kazeem or Trading Leather could end up making the running which isn't ideal but I'll be putting the two of them in a decent sized reverse forecast. Don't fancy Toronado in a battle against either/both of them.

TheMilkyPirate

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

How'd you change your user name??

Subscribed for a month only cost a fiver

tryfix

Dubron wrote: »

The International is a cracker! Toronado will go off favourite. Think Al Kazeem or Trading Leather could end up making the running which isn't ideal but I'll be putting the two of them in a decent sized reverse forecast. Don't fancy Toronado in a battle against either/both of them.

It's a hard one to call, I can't remember a really top 10f Hannon colt ever, and yet they are quite bullish about Toronado's chances against a top 10f horse like Al Kazeem and the King George 2nd and third.

It's a head scratcher, Toronado didn't look like a stayer in the Sussex stakes, he just looked like a top miler. Trading Leather will make it a proper pace up front and Toronado will have to be a stayer to get past him and to hold off Al Kazeem who'll relish the extended 10f trip. If Toronado wins well he'll have the world at his feet, it even opens up the possibility of a crack at the Arc. :eek:

Now wouldn't that be mad.

The Votigeur is going to be a top race as well, even Telescope's flop the last day is good enough form to win it on the book, but Cap O'Rushes will be hard to pass and O'Briens horse could be anything, all that talent in the yard and he sends this unexposed horse and why isn't Joseph riding him?

JosephDoyleIre

I would think that Telescope is a nice bet in his race on the first day. As far as I can see, the bookies have got this one spot on and I wouldn't mind the forecast as they have it...

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

why isn't Joseph riding him?

I would think he would be uncomfortable doing the weight. 9stone is pretty much his min these days. In a race where the horse will prob need all the help he can get them 2pounds could make all the difference.
Or I could be completely wrong and he could be banned. Don't know though.

Harry Angstrom

Toronado doesn't look like a 10 furlong horse to me, even though he's by High Chaparral. Al Kazeem is the only serious horse in the race who isn't stepping up or dropping back in distance. 11/8 seems a very fair price.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

I would think he would be uncomfortable doing the weight. 9stone is pretty much his min these days. In a race where the horse will prob need all the help he can get them 2pounds could make all the difference.
Or I could be completely wrong and he could be banned. Don't know though.

I'd say you're on the ball with the weight. Foundry is only carrying 8'12 and Joseph is riding DOW 9'5 later in the afternoon, so he's not banned.

Gatame

Even if Toronado can stay the 10f I still think Al kazeem at 11/8 is a cracking bet.. I'm gonna be putting my biggest bet ever on him tomorrow, hopefully he keeps drifting... if he stays fav I'll also have a small betting w/o fav on dow at 13/2

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I'd say you're on the ball with the weight. Foundry is only carrying 8'12 and Joseph is riding DOW 9'5 later in the afternoon, so he's not banned.

Oh ya forgot about DOW. Must be the weight so.

RichieLawlor

Gatame wrote: »

Even if Toronado can stay the 10f I still think Al kazeem at 11/8 is a cracking bet.. I'm gonna be putting my biggest bet ever on him tomorrow, hopefully he keeps drifting... if he stays fav I'll also have a small betting w/o fav on dow at 13/2

I think if Toronado sees it out he will destroy them

ste2010

Newton abbot 7.40 no woman no cry looks a nice prices bet. Got the 12's available last night and a course winner of this race last year on a lower handicap mark I reckon it's in the bag

Slattsy

A couple of bets for me at York that i fancy at decent ew prices:

1.55 - Demora
2.30 - Il Paparazzi (fav could be hard to beat here)
3.05 - Telescope could be worth backing if he drifts further than the current 13/8 but Secret Number is my fancy at the prices.
3.40 - If Toronado stays he wins i reckon. But no great betting interest in the race.
4.20 - Suraj
4.55 - Bahamian Heights (Nap)

Gringo180

No worries about Toronado's stamina today he was doing his best work in the last half furlong at Goodwood on Gd-Sft and the pace was frentic in that race.

Nice double on Telescope and Toronado for me.

Johner

Al Kazeem is starting to look great value to me. Proven class at the trip. 13/8, yes please! Also a double with Telescope as it doesn't look a strong race.

Backstreet Moyes

Gringo180 wrote: »

No worries about Toronado's stamina today he was doing his best work in the last half furlong at Goodwood on Gd-Sft and the pace was frentic in that race.

Nice double on Telescope and Toronado for me.

Ye logged on to see if anybody could talk me out of that double.

Paddy Powers offer is fairly good money back if 2nd to sp fav. Was going to go heavy on Toronado and insurance of money back if Al Kazeem goes off fav and wins. But it's hard to know who will go off favorite now.

racso1975

4.20 York Eagle rock/Flashman

Gringo180

Nuts102 wrote: »

Ye logged on to see if anybody could talk me out of that double.

Paddy Powers offer is fairly good money back if 2nd to sp fav. Was going to go heavy on Toronado and insurance of money back if Al Kazeem goes off fav and wins. But it's hard to know who will go off favorite now.

Personally I think Toronado will go off fav, reckon the money will come for him just before the race, to be fair he is the only horse in the race who could truely be a bit special. Remember this horse was going to the Derby before his Guineas run and we know that the op has sorted the problem out he had that day when he ran out of steam in the last furlong.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

Personally I think Toronado will go off fav, reckon the money will come for him just before the race, to be fair he is the only horse in the race who could truely be a bit special. Remember this horse was going to the Derby before his Guineas run and we know that the op has sorted the problem out he had that day when he ran out of steam in the last furlong.

The biggest hint to his chances is the fact that he's being let run at all. He's a superstar at a mile, if they thought Al Kazeem had a chance of beating him they surely just wouldn't run against him.

Toronado has got a 1l on Al Kazeem through Declaration of War, and the danger to him is more likely to come from one of the three year old's showing improvement. Trading Leather will be hard enough to get past, but he ain't no 126 horse like Toronado is.

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

The biggest hint to his chances is the fact that he's being let run at all. He's a superstar at a mile, if they thought Al Kazeem had a chance of beating him they surely just wouldn't run against him.

Toronado has got a 1l on Al Kazeem through Declaration of War, and the danger to him is more likely to come from one of the three year old's showing improvement. Trading Leather will be hard enough to get past, but he ain't no 126 horse like Toronado is.

I think the horse could be a lot better over 10-12f, with a slower pace over this distance his explosive turn of foot could put these to bed in a few strides and his cruising speed is unbelievable so he could canter up alongside them 2 out and just take off. Personally I think this horse is a bit special, today could prove me right or wrong.

hawkeyethenoo

personally i think toronado is being well overrated here. his group 1 form is 421, last time was very impressive alright but dawn approach hasnt been the same horse since the derby. there are doubts about the trip as well for toronado, 7/4 for potential or 13/8 for a proven horse over the distance who has racked up 3 impressive wins at the highest level in a row. toronado is not value at all. 9 out of the last 11 winners of this race had all ran at the distance and one of those that hadnt was frankel.

al kazeem for me he is the value in the race and is underrated every race because he isnt trained by a big name. if al kazeem was trained by hannon he would be 10/11.

Gringo180

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

personally i think toronado is being well overrated here. his group 1 form is 421, last time was very impressive alright but dawn approach hasnt been the same horse since the derby. there are doubts about the trip as well for toronado, 7/4 for potential or 13/8 for a proven horse over the distance who has racked up 3 impressive wins at the highest level in a row. toronado is not value at all. 9 out of the last 11 winners of this race had all ran at the distance and one of those that hadnt was frankel.

al kazeem for me he is the value in the race and is underrated every race because he isnt trained by a big name. if al kazeem was trained by hannon he would be 10/11.

DA won the St James Palace and came 2nd in the Sussex Stakes, to say he isn't the same horse since the Derby would be way off the mark imo. Toronado was nowhere near 100% in the Guineas and still ran a creditable race finishing 4th.

hawkeyethenoo

Gringo180 wrote: »

DA won the St James Palace and came 2nd in the Sussex Stakes, to say he isn't the same horse since the Derby would be way off the mark imo. Toronado was nowhere near 100% in the Guineas and still ran a creditable race finishing 4th.

he hasnt looked the same horse to me. toronados run in the guineas was not a creditable run. the horses in 2nd and 3rd are not up too much.

and you say about toronado crusing up to the field and sprinting clear, he has only done this once at group one level. al kazeem has a very very high cruising speed and is proven over the trip. when looking for value i see it in al kazeem and not in an unproven 7/4 shot.

Johner

Above Standard being very well backed here.

Gringo180

hawkeyethenoo wrote: »

he hasnt looked the same horse to me. toronados run in the guineas was not a creditable run. the horses in 2nd and 3rd are not up too much.

and you say about toronado crusing up to the field and sprinting clear, he has only done this once at group one level. al kazeem has a very very high cruising speed and is proven over the trip. when looking for value i see it in al kazeem and not in an unproven 7/4 shot.

I agree with you that he is unproven at the trip but as you say the one time he has looked special was last time out which would tell me that he is an improving horse, he also annihilated a very good field on his reappearance in the Craven and was giving them weight, his run in the Guineas was a shocker and maybe he needed time to get over that and his wind op which could be a reason he was beat at Ascot by DA and has since improved past that horse when he beat him cosily at Goodwood.

tryfix

Gringo180 wrote: »

I agree with you that he is unproven at the trip but as you say the one time he has looked special was last time out which would tell me that he is an improving horse, he also annihilated a very good field on his reappearance in the Craven and was giving them weight, his run in the Guineas was a shocker and maybe he needed time to get over that and his wind op which could be a reason he was beat at Ascot by DA and has since improved past that horse when he beat him cosily at Goodwood.

On pedigree he'll stay the trip easily.

TORONADO (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-3-11-4-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.14

UrbanSea

Aw man to say I'm sick is an understatement for Bogart to win and I wasn't on. Some tidy bets landed was 16s the night before last when they were priced up

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

On pedigree he'll stay the trip easily.

TORONADO (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-3-11-4-1 (22) DI = 1.10 CD = 0.14

Cheers for that I didn't want to ask you again for the index on him

UrbanSea

Tryfix are you the official forum dosage finder

tryfix

UrbanSea wrote: »

Tryfix are you the official forum dosage finder

That damned DI, it's a tricky little fkr, you'd want to be thinking of how balanced the stamina is. Someone on another thread pointed out that stamina is passed down on the female side. Which might explain why some horses with low DI's of 1.00 don't stay as well others with the same index.


I'm expecting a huge step up in performance from Telescope over the 12f trip in the Voltigeur based on his DI.

TELESCOPE (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09

Gringo180

tryfix wrote: »

That damned DI, it's a tricky little fkr, you'd want to be thinking of how balanced the stamina is. Someone on another thread pointed out that stamina is passed down on the female side. Which might explain why some horses with low DI's of 1.00 don't stay as well others with the same index.


I'm expecting a huge step up in performance from Telescope over the 12f trip in the Voltigeur based on his DI.

TELESCOPE (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09

He looked a real Leger horse last time out.

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

That damned DI, it's a tricky little fkr, you'd want to be thinking of how balanced the stamina is. Someone on another thread pointed out that stamina is passed down on the female side. Which might explain why some horses with low DI's of 1.00 don't stay as well others with the same index.


I'm expecting a huge step up in performance from Telescope over the 12f trip in the Voltigeur based on his DI.

TELESCOPE (IRE) b. C, 2010 DP = 3-1-11-5-2 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = -0.09

I agree here he is definitely worth another chance against this field. My only bet today. Took the 7/4 earlier.

Johner

I really liked that performance by Telescope.

klairondavis

Foundry looks the horse to take out of that race.

Gringo180

Pure Leger horse lads surely favourite for it now??

Slattsy

Re Foundry, was just about to post this, def the horse to take out of the race. Bound to improve a ton.

I also think Foundry was feeling the ground a bit. Will be better on a slightly softer surface.

Overthelast

Al Kazeem would be my selection though I'm not having bet in the race. He's unbeaten in his 4 races this year, the last 3 at Grp 1 Level. His form is rock solid. The classic generation are getting plenty of weight but they will need it.

Cannot have Toronado - some firms are enhancing him to 9/4 today & with doubts about the step up in trip/hannon's form in this race, thats enough to put me off.

DOW - sorry, he's too inconsisent for my liking.

Trading Leather/Hillstar represent the dangers imo. But I'm happy enough that the 3yr old form is not on par with prior yrs & Al Kazeem will be able to put his experience to good use.

kfallon

Best horse in the race came 2nd, Telescope won't beat Foundry again if they meet!

JosephDoyleIre

I don't often bet my winnings, but I'm equally confident in Al Kazeem as I was in Telescope.

RichieLawlor

Perhaps the Derby run ruined Dawn Approach and it was just that he was so good he was able to win at Royal Ascot and maybe in fact Toronado isn't that good.

I'm on the Al Kazeem train

kfallon

Was that Cha McCreevey with Aidan O'Brien?

kfallon

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think if Toronado sees it out he will destroy them

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Perhaps the Derby run ruined Dawn Approach and it was just that he was so good he was able to win at Royal Ascot and maybe in fact Toronado isn't that good.

I'm on the Al Kazeem train

klairondavis

kfallon wrote: »

Was that Cha McCreevey with Aidan O'Brien?

It was.

Gringo180

Fcuk sake :rolleyes:

klairondavis

Maybe Charlie is a good luck charm.

Backstreet Moyes

Wonder what the Hannon's excuse will be this time. What injury will he have this time.

Overthelast

Well I couldn't see that coming.