Emigration & Unemployment

wretcheddomain

For those of you who follow comments on The Journal, or Breaking News or whatever it may be, you may have come across comments whereby people say that any drop in the unemployment rate is purely the result of emigration. Like today for instance, we heard that those on the queue's dropped by 3,000 or so, and apparently all of these bought a ticket to Australia or the UK if you were to believe what other people proselytise.

Now I'm wondering to what extent emigration has affected the drop in unemployment over the past year or two. Obviously, it has had some effect but do people here know the extent to which it has affected it. It's useful to know this extent instead of people immediately jumping to the 'It's gotta be emigration, no other explanation, that's it, 100%' mentality which seems to be a reflex reaction rather than grounded in pure fact.

So what do you guys think?

Celly Smunt

It's a cycle,people are going on temporary work visas.So emigration has little effect on unemployment figures.

The only time it would affect unemployment figures is with people going to the UK etc,where they aren't forced to come home and will stay on.But for those going to the likes of Australia,they'll go over and come back within two years or so.

So for every 2 that go abroad,1 will stay in the U.K and 1 will come home from Australia.So that means for every 2 that were unemployed,1 will come back unemployed.

wretcheddomain

Celly Smunt wrote: »

It's a cycle,people are going on temporary work visas.So emigration has little effect on unemployment figures.

That was my suspicion to be honest.

Stinicker

Also thousands of people are not on the "live register" look at those stuck on FAs schemes, TUS programmes, in back to education etc. The stark reality is that we have an unemployment rate of 33% and if we hemmed in everyone that was here at the time of the crash and stopped people from leaving we'd be looking at a 50% unemployment rate

MadsL

Stinicker wrote: »

Also thousands of people are not on the "live register" look at those stuck on FAs schemes, TUS programmes, in back to education etc. The stark reality is that we have an unemployment rate of 33% and if we hemmed in everyone that was here at the time of the crash and stopped people from leaving we'd be looking at a 50% unemployment rate

You're welcome

Amazing people still use the allegation that those who emigrate are unpatriotic.

Annasopra

MadsL wrote: »

You're welcome

Amazing people still use the allegation that those who emigrate are unpatriotic.

What? where did the bit you quoted say that?

ifeelill

Stinicker wrote: »

Also thousands of people are not on the "live register" look at those stuck on FAs schemes, TUS programmes, in back to education etc. The stark reality is that we have an unemployment rate of 33% and if we hemmed in everyone that was here at the time of the crash and stopped people from leaving we'd be looking at a 50% unemployment rate

Em ... ok, although i agree with your point of view i don't agree with your numbers on the 30th of June 2013, the Irish independent reported that the IMF released a report stating that the real unemployment rate in Ireland stands at around 24% the independent go on to say

"The Washington-based body poured cold water on the fall in the unemployment rate to 13.7pc in the first three months of the year, claiming it was due in large part to a shrinking labour force."

I think it's a combination but largely due to emigration that the unemployment rate has fallen over the last year and think about where it was in Jan 2012 15.7% its only a drop of 2% so even if it was a growth in employment that was bringing down the unemployment figures, it's hardly spectacular.

On the other had, the unemployment rate is a percentage of the total population of working age who are unemployed, so it would stand to reason that if people of working age are leaving the country who are also unemployed then the percentage of unemployment would remain unchanged ? Does this make sense to anyone or am i talking out the parliamentary side of my arse.

One thing i do know is that a terrible vengeance will be enacted on the Labour party in the next election and hopefully Fine Gael, now their a bunch of Bas*ta*ds i love to meet down the local social.


Source: http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/forget-parttime-jobs-real-unemployment-rate-is-24pc-says-imf-29358808.html

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/unemployment-rate

breadmonster

id rather they published the number of employed people instead of the unemployment figure then we could work it out.

MadsL

mango salsa wrote: »

What? where did the bit you quoted say that?

Oh, it didn't. I meant that I have seen it here quite a few times.

Stinicker

ifeelill wrote: »

One thing i do know is that a terrible vengeance will be enacted on the Labour party in the next election and hopefully Fine Gael, now their a bunch of Bas*ta*ds i love to meet down the local social.

Yes of course because it is all their fault; next thing you will be telling us of how Fianna Fail will be the savior to all our problems. This current government are not responsible for what happened and are only trying to clean up the mess left by the other Fianna Fail traitors. There is no alternative to this government unless you want the Fianna Fail scum back in power again, so you can have this current crop or you can have scum, give me Joan Burton and Enda Kenny anyday over the Fianna Fail criminals who wrecked this country.

ifeelill

Stinicker wrote: »

Yes of course because it is all their fault; next thing you will be telling us of how Fianna Fail will be the savior to all our problems.

I have no political affiliation whatsoever, i was however many years ago a member of the Labour party who im sure will go the same way as the PDs and the greens

Stinicker wrote: »

This current government are not responsible for what happened

Fain point

Stinicker wrote: »

and are only trying to clean up the mess left by the other Fianna Fail traitors.

Getting a bit cray again

Stinicker wrote: »

There is no alternative to this government unless you want the Fianna Fail scum back in power again, so you can have this current crop or you can have scum, give me Joan Burton and Enda Kenny anyday over the Fianna Fail criminals who wrecked this country.

Thanks for presenting me with my "choices" but i think you'll find that because of the absence of the pds the greens the soon to be gone labour the decimated Fianna Fail there will be a power vacuum and other political parties will rise up to assume that political vacuum.

RachaelVO

It's not a coincidence that the brain drain runs at the same time unemployment goes down a jot or two.

I'd love to come home to live (just back after nearly 5 weeks home) but how the feck can I?

shruikan2553

ifeelill wrote: »

On the other had, the unemployment rate is a percentage of the total population of working age who are unemployed, so it would stand to reason that if people of working age are leaving the country who are also unemployed then the percentage of unemployment would remain unchanged ? Does this make sense to anyone or am i talking out the parliamentary side of my arse.

Emigration would lower the unemployment percentage but by how much depends on the numbers of people gont and the nmbers unemployed. With the likes of jobsbridge it gets a bit more complicated. The unemployment rate in Ireland is actually higher and would probably be higher if it wasnt for emigration, but how many of those that emigrated actually left and arent gone to Aus or NZ and will come back next year to tell us about how much they grew up and learnt while sitting in an Irish pub in a GAA jersey.

April O Neill

Celly Smunt wrote: »

The only time it would affect unemployment figures is with people going to the UK etc

That's a big chunk, as many people are heading to London now.

ifeelill

shruikan2553 wrote: »

Emigration would lower the unemployment percentage but by how much depends on the numbers of people gont and the nmbers unemployed. With the likes of jobsbridge it gets a bit more complicated. The unemployment rate in Ireland is actually higher and would probably be higher if it wasnt for emigration, but how many of those that emigrated actually left and arent gone to Aus or NZ and will come back next year to tell us about how much they grew up and learnt while sitting in an Irish pub in a GAA jersey.

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

Ok so here's my thoughts on the issue, if they go for a little or a long time is not my issue the statistical analysis and the methodology is and this is where the "lies and statistics" come into it, from my own point of view i studied Civil Engineering and we were thought statistics and our lecturer informed us that if you are good at working with statistics then you can make the numbers tell whatever story you want them to tell or at least you could present a case as positively as one could by manipulating the number by the use a legitimate methodology and to compound this idea in our heads he used two examples of central tendency which give different results.

shruikan2553

ifeelill wrote: »

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

Ok so here's my thoughts on the issue, if they go for a little or a long time is not my issue the statistical analysis and the methodology is and this is where the "lies and statistics" come into it, from my own point of view i studied Civil Engineering and we were thought statistics and our lecturer informed us that if you are good at working with statistics then you can make the numbers tell whatever story you want them to tell or at least you could present a case as positively as one could by manipulating the number by the use a legitimate methodology and to compound this idea in our heads he used two examples of central tendency which give different results.

I was told the exact same in my statistics lectures. You can say something like 70% of people earn below the average wage and very few people will stop and ask how is that an average if more than 50% earn less than it. Wouldn't surprise me if they ignored a few other groups along with the jobbridge crowd when announcing the numbers.

dxhound2005

Stinicker wrote: »

Also thousands of people are not on the "live register" look at those stuck on FAs schemes, TUS programmes, in back to education etc. The stark reality is that we have an unemployment rate of 33% and if we hemmed in everyone that was here at the time of the crash and stopped people from leaving we'd be looking at a 50% unemployment rate

Not everyone who left was unemployed. And between the censuses of 2006 and 2011 the number of people living here who were born abroad rose by 25% and they now make up 17% of the population. Large numbers of these people are able to get employment here. Our population increased by one million in the last 20 years (340,000 between 2006 and 2011 alone) and is still increasing rapidly despite the amount of recent emigration.

http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/Prelim%20complete.pdf

There are about 1.8 million people at work now. Are you saying that there are another 1.4 million of working age who are on FAS schemes or who emigrated in recent times because they had no job here as well as the official 400,000 unemployed? That would make the working age population 3.6 million out of a total population of 4.6 million. I don't think that adds up. And are you taking any account of the "black economy" in your calculations.

Even at the height of the boom when hundreds of thousands of people from abroad were working here there was still a 4% unemployment rate.