Wednesday 31 July

Overthelast

The 16 tipsters from the racing posts selection box found 3 winners between them today at Goodwood. I feel better already.

I fancy Excess Knowledge tomorrow in the Gordon Stakes.

Francie Barrett

Like I said in the other thread, I really fancy The Disengager for the Galway Plate. 20/1 with Paddy Power and they're also paying out 1/4 the odds on 5 places. It will love the distance, the course and the ground, so it should be there or thereabouts at the end. I have €50 e/w on - that's the kind of money I'd only lump on a horse two or three times a year.

longshotvalue

1:50 Goodwood

Brockwell is favourite here in my book, and I’m surprised to see him available here at 16 on Betfair. He is one of the least exposed in the field and ran a superb race in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle last time, when finishing really well from what looked an impossible position. On the evidence of that the step up in trip will be no problem to him, and he may well be one that it still very much on the upgrade.


2 Points win 16 Betfair

mozil

like the look of courtncatcher in the handicap. i think he should have no bother with the trip or weight. Mcnamara is well used to him good price at 10's.
Big fan of treat yourself especially with russell on board but dont think the ground will suit

longshotvalue

Galway Plate

Muirheads 4th in the Bet365 Gold cup on his last run over fences is about as good form as there is in this race, and I think he has been given a chance here with his mark of 135. He was a high class Hurdler and has finished a decent 6th in this race before. This year he has run well In all his chases and I think this is his best kind of trip. 20/1 with 5 places on Bet365 looks great value. He should go on whatever the ground brings up.


1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 5 places

longshotvalue

4:10 Galway

I’m going to go with a couple of the older brigade here. Caim Hill, could well be in better form tham his price of 20/1 suggests given his very good flat run only 1 month ago beating Shop Dl and Drive Time, in what looked a decent race. He looks to has a decent chance of working of the mark he has here and well worth a small bet at those odds. In Addition Eagles Pass hasn’t done a lot lately but has been shooting down the weights and has run well at Galway before. I wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see him improve here tomorrow and given that 33/1 looks value.


1 Point win Caim Hill 20/1

1 Point win Eagles Pass 33/1

Hulk Hands

aidankkk wrote: »

Galway Plate

Muirheads 4th in the Bet365 Gold cup on his last run over fences is about as good form as there is in this race, and I think he has been given a chance here with his mark of 135. He was a high class Hurdler and has finished a decent 6th in this race before. This year he has run well In all his chases and I think this is his best kind of trip. 20/1 with 5 places on Bet365 looks great value. He should go on whatever the ground brings up.


1 Point EW 20/1 Bet365 5 places

Why oh why I didn't back that at 33s just a few hours ago

UrbanSea

Was looking at Eagle's Pass too, not sure he is a three miler though edit saw he tried the trip once

rossom

1.55 Goodwood

Mexicali 25/1

If the forecast rain stays away then I'll be backing Kazbow 16/1 but I can't quite get over the price of Dean Ivory's 5 year old Mexicali and I think she has an excellent chance of landing this contest if lasting the mammoth 2m5f trip which looks a strong possibility on doing. Formerly with Andre Fabre in France, this lightly raced mare showed some good form with her best effort coming undoubtedly coming on her final start for the trainer on her sole 4 year old outing at Maisons-laffitte in April last year when winning eased down from a subsequent Group 1 winner in Sortilege (took him a while to progress to that level) in a Conditions race in what is generally pretty good form. Mexicali went through the sales ring in February this year and was picked up for 20,000 GNS in February this year by current trainer Dean Ivory. On her British debut, Mexicali ran a highly encouraging race on her first start in 13 months when a not overly knocked about 6th in a decent handicap at Ascot over 12f in May off a 4lb higher mark of 84 before absolutely bombing out on 2 occasions at Windsor and Doncaster (no idea why) which saw her fall to a handicap mark of 74. She bounced back hugely from those desperately disappointing displays when running out a ready winner of an ok event at Kempton over 2m earlier this month on her AW debut and it was certainly a massive step forward for the mare. Settled in behind the pace under today's jockey Seb Sanders, Mexicali hit the front with about 4f to go and entering the home straight she had the race sewn up with Sanders persistently looking behind his mount for dangers. Although Sanders had to administer the whip on a couple of occasions and her stride was shortening late on, Mexicali ran out a comfortable 1.75L winner for which a 6lb rise seems very fair. The form of that race hasn't been tested but she'll clearly have to improve again but she showed some smart form in France and this unexposed 5 year old definitely has the scope for further improvement. Given that her stride was shortening over the 2m trip, you'd have to have doubts about the 2m5f trip but I think she was in front plenty soon but there is a lot of stamina in her family and I think there is a very good chance she'll stay the extreme distance. I definitely feel that she's better than her mark of 80 and given that she comes in here with a ready success (albeit in much lesser company) I feel the bookies have got her priced up very wrong and I cannot quite believe she's a 25/1 chance. Although she seems fine on soft ground, I would prefer if not too much rain fell and it was good to soft ground as testing conditions will place even more emphasis on stamina and she isn't guaranteed to stay. Well drawn in stall 7, I hope Sanders can get across to the rail and occupy a position not too far off the pace and if so I think she has an excellent chance of winning this. Trainer Dean Ivory couldn't be in better form at the moment with his last 4 runners all winning and Seb Sanders is back riding to the level which saw him share the jockeys title with Jamie Spencer in 2007. Although this is a big step up in class, I definitely feel Mexicali has the ability to be a major force in this contest and with a lovely racing weight of 8-10 I'm hoping she can land this decent prize at a big price.

3.35 Galway

King High 12/1

At his peak King High was seen winning a handicap chase easily off a mark of 127 back in 2011 and although he's clearly had a lot of issues since then jockey Mikey Butler stated after his win LTO "I think we've got him right". Although clearly nowhere near as good over hurdles as fences, this 9 year old registered his 7th career success and first win since his career best back in October 2011 earlier this month with an impressive victory on his 15th run since that victory with a 2L success over timber at Sligo earlier this month for which a 7lb rise seems very reasonable. Over 20f on decent ground off a mark of 105, King High was held up towards the rear of the field under Mikey Butler and he travelled through the race smoothly for the most part. After making good headway to track the leaders heading into the home straight, King High hit the front jumping the last and although Butler had to get after him a lot in the run in to maintain his advantage he scored by a decent 2L in the end. The form of that race hasn't really been tested and I wouldn't expect it to be that strong but it represents the first time he has gotten his head in front after a torrid 20 month period and I'm hopeful that his problems are no firmly behind him. A 7lb rise to 112 seems fair for his win and although he has never won off a mark this high over hurdles I'm sure he has the ability to do so if back in peak condition. Looking at the race, it doesn't look overly strong and if King High can build upon his breakthrough success I think he's going to have a major say in this race. Mikey Butler takes off a handy 3lb and gave him a fine to win LTO and cheekpieces are reapplied (won in them before) which should hopefully keep his interest and concentration up. Although pulled up in this race last year, I'm not really concerned about that given he was completely out of form then and he ran well enough at the track over fences back in 2011. While he wouldn't want much rain, a little ease in the ground wouldn't be much of a concern and Eoin Doyle has his horses in fine form at the moment. If his win earlier this month represents the first time King High was completely sound since 2011 and if building on that success, I think a big run is on the cards for this 9 year old and in what looks a very winnable race hopefully he can reward very patient connections with a win at the Galway Festival.

4.10 Galway

Landero 12/1

Strictly on their run in May, favourite Shanpallas has the beating of Landero (RFC on the pair definitely worth a go) but I think he has improved a lot since then and he couldn't have been more impressive when landing a big punt by owner/trainer Andrew Heffernan on his last start when never coming off the bridle in winning a decent contest at Roscommon earlier this month when upped to 3m for the first time. After beginning life on the flat for Andreas Wohler in Germany, Landero moved over to Ireland to Bernard Anthony Heffernan and after a good 2nd to the useful Roman Flight on his 2nd start over hurdles he shed his maiden over timber on his 3rd start when winning a fairly average event at Down Royal in June last year and although she ran respectably over hurdles subsequently for her former trainer that was as good as it got. Landero joined current connections this year and after making a good handicap debut off a mark of 112 in testing conditions when a good 4th when unfancied at Kilbeggan back in May he ran another good race a couple of weeks later off a mark of 113 when beaten about 10L by todays favourite Shanpallas over 2m4f at Down Royal. His final start came off that same mark earlier this month when upped to 3m at Roscommon for the first time and he could not have been more impressive when winning on the bridle by over 7L as he landed a gamble in the process under todays pilot Robbie Power. The form of that race is yet to be tested but the runner up Courtncatcher came into the race in good form (runs in the 3.35) and I'm sure the race will work out well. I think the 12lb rise to a mark of 125 is the reason he's available at 12/1 today but if the same Landero turns up then I think he has every chance of defying the penalty as he couldn't have won any easier. On collateral form, Shanpallas has the beating of Landero (and indeed Irish Soul from Killbeggan 4th) given that Andrew Heffernan's 6 year old has 10L to make up on that rival who is actually 2lb better off but I firmly believe that Landero is a different horse to the one that showed up that day and 3 miles has brought out the best in him. Dublin based Heffernan has done really well with his small string of jumpers with 4 wins from just 13 runners and if the rain doesn't turn the ground soft I think he has the ability to shoulder this big weight and a 12lb rise and give his trainer a first winner at the Galway Festival.

finbarrk

Seemingly the Shark said his horse, Usuel Smurfer would win the 4.10 at some sort of a preview thing in Galway last night.

Johner

Which one of JP's will be a non runner to let Carlingford Lough in. :pac:

cson

finbarrk wrote: »

Seemingly the Shark said his horse, Usuel Smurfer would win the 4.10 at some sort of a preview thing in Galway last night.

If ever there was an undeserved nickname its his. A hooky ****er but certainly not a predator of any kind.

ThinkAboutIt

some of u enjoyed the preview i found on monday so thought i'd post today's for galway it's a good read http://gamblerfalls.com/galway-festival-day-3/

who will win the sussex stakes ?

Backstreet Moyes

Hard enough to get a single up for myself lately but fancy a treble has anybody got any thought.

3.05 Dawn Approach
3.00 Blackmail
4.45 Union Dues

mohican22

Has there been much rain in Galway/Ballybrit lads anyone? We've got alot of it down here in Cork

john.han

mohican22 wrote: »

Has there been much rain in Galway/Ballybrit lads anyone? We've got alot of it down here in Cork

Yep, plenty rain and it's bucketing down at the moment with no sign of it stopping.

Overthelast

mohican22 wrote: »

Has there been much rain in Galway/Ballybrit lads anyone? We've got alot of it down here in Cork

It will rain until 3pm approx in Galway, then should be dry for racing, hopefully.

sting60

Just told a lad having a few pints watching Goodwood/Galway did a 1e e/w super yankee.Viewpoint,Brown suger,Harris Tweed then at Galway Sister Slew and the last race Busted Tycoon all won.I worked it out to be 123,122.63e hope it was Ladbrokes.

Dubron

Lastoftheleaders for me in the Plate today, 25/1 with Boylesports is overpriced. Was expected to go very close LTO (I had a big oul bet on) so connections obviously think he has a competitive handicap in him off 143. More rain the better.

Bet365 just went 5/4 Dawn Approach!

Gringo180

Really like the look of Secret Number in the 2.30 @ Goodwood. Step up in trip is a bit of an uncertainty but he is entered in the St. Leger so I think its worth the risk that he will improve for it. Currently 11/2.

Overthelast

Johner wrote: »

Which one of JP's will be a non runner to let Carlingford Lough in. :pac:

Far too much shenanigans with his runners. I'd say he lays the living bejesus out of many of his horses.

It may be Gigginstown's turn this year to lift the plate, IMO.

ste2010

Now that carlito brigante is out my fancies are buckers bridge and fosters cross. Reckon both are nicely handicapped, wouldn't be over confident on fosters cross if it came up 2 soft but reckon the trip will find him good

Gatame

Might throw a few quid ew on enchanted forest in the first.. its lashing at the moment think he will love that

cson

Overthelast wrote: »

Far too much shenanigans with his runners. I'd say he lays the living bejesus out of many of his horses.

I'd doubt that very much; he's not exactly stuck for cash.

ste2010

If your lucking for 2 nice ew bets today
Strongpoint in the 4.35 perth 6-1 (strong form over course and distance when conceding weight behind yesterday's Galway winner busted tycoon)

In the 5.10 terfels toscar 11-1 now was 16's earlier. Tim Vaughan is coming back into form now and has travelled over 400m's ew to get to the course!

manafana

cson wrote: »

I'd doubt that very much; he's not exactly stuck for cash.

agree with that hes not going risk his business for sack of laying for few hundred quid. makes his cash selectively backing his horses.

Galway day 3 from me.

been worse galway in years for me, few knocked on door but nothing rewarded bar an each way so far.

carpothepunk

Chatting to a friend over breakfast this morning. The Mullins camp really fancy Union Dues, and I feel personally Jacksonslady is the one in the biggun.

Hulk Hands

carpothepunk wrote: »

Chatting to a friend over breakfast this morning. The Mullins camp really fancy Union Dues, and I feel personally Jacksonslady is the one in the biggun.

With the rain it's hard to see Union Dues beaten with a testing finish likely. That 6/4 and 11/8 earlier looks very big

manafana

Hulk Hands wrote: »

With the rain it's hard to see Union Dues beaten with a testing finish likely. That 6/4 and 11/8 earlier looks very big

still few sorts in the field that could surprise but then again Union Dues could be a different class anyway, actually an interesting maiden

Johner

Missed the 6/4 on Union Dues, he has loads of speed and has shown before how well he can quicken on softer ground. I think he'll hack up here, lets not forget he was the Patrick Mullins pick for the Champion Bumper.

Slattsy

My only bet today is Jacksonslady. Got on yesterday evening

I'd have preffered it the rain didnt arrive as it looked lovely yesterday.

ste2010

Hulk Hands wrote: »

With the rain it's hard to see Union Dues beaten with a testing finish likely. That 6/4 and 11/8 earlier looks very big

And it's even bigger when you treble it with dawn approach and blackmail ;-)

Hulk Hands

ste2010 wrote: »

And it's even bigger when you treble it with dawn approach and blackmail ;-)

Have to think Blackmail will hate the rain coming!

Johner

The Irish Field ‏@TheIrishField 2m

The JP McManus-owned Like Your Style has been withdrawn from today's Galway Plate, making room for the same owner's Carlingford Lough.

:rolleyes:

Hulk Hands

Johner wrote: »

The Irish Field ‏@TheIrishField 2m

The JP McManus-owned Like Your Style has been withdrawn from today's Galway Plate, making room for the same owner's Carlingford Lough.

:rolleyes:

It was always going to happen and it'd be rather stupid not to. I think they gave every opportunity for someone else to pull out naturally but it didnt happen, leaving them with the regrettable decision to pull their own

Backstreet Moyes

Is Boyles down for anybody else trying to get a bet on in the 2.30 but it won't load up.

TheMilkyPirate

Fancy Dawn approach today, Will be a lot fitter than the last day and I just think he's a better horse than Toronado anyway

Backstreet Moyes

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Have to think Blackmail will hate the rain coming!

I am unsure think i will take Blacmail out and just double up Union Dues and Dawn Approach.

byronbay2

baraca wrote: »

Fancy Dawn approach today, Will be a lot fitter than the last day and I just think he's a better horse than Toronado anyway

Yeah, agree with that - don't fancy Toronado at all. Declaration of War is the main danger to Dawn Approach and a pretty serious danger at that. Best approach is to lay Toronado imo, albeit he has drifted substantially this morning.

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

Really like the look of Secret Number in the 2.30 @ Goodwood. Step up in trip is a bit of an uncertainty but he is entered in the St. Leger so I think its worth the risk that he will improve for it. Currently 11/2.

Poxy Goodwood and its traffic problems :rolleyes:

tryfix

Nice Cup horse that Cap O'Rushes, the further the better with this fella.

UrbanSea

What reasoning have ye for not fancying Toronado at all?

tryfix

Soft ground shouldn't suit Toronado, as it'll make it a test of stamina which doesn't seem to be his forte, not so sure about how Dawn Approach is progressing, that wasn't exactly his top form either the last day. DOW doesn't look good enough, but he comes with a fair rattle and stays well.

byronbay2

UrbanSea wrote: »

What reasoning have ye for not fancying Toronado at all?

I thought Dawn Approach had absolutely no chance at half way in St. James Palace Stakes (having refused to settle and pulled Manning's arms off for 4f) but when Toronado came up beside him and edged ahead, DA pulled out more like a real battler and passed him again. I think there will be a stronger early pace today, DA will be fitter and should settle better, will have no problem with the ground and I would be very surprised if Toronado reverses the places today.

TheMilkyPirate

UrbanSea wrote: »

What reasoning have ye for not fancying Toronado at all?

He's beaten him twice already no excuses, It was yourself stressing the imprtance of not backing a horse that was beaten by an opponent last time out.

If he doesn't win I'd be surprised so prepare the egg for my face.

Slattsy

Result?

TheMilkyPirate

Egg. On. Face.

mailburner

1st 7 Toronado (IRE) 11/4
2nd 5 Dawn Approach (IRE) 10/11

Shane732

Kevin Manning went very early. Think the tactics won that one.

Dawn Approach is proving to be a bit of a let down (despite having won some great races). I was expecting Dawn Approach to be something very special but he doesn't appear to be.

Tony Martin is having a good week.

UrbanSea

Excuses in the Guineas and then a head between them yet one is 5/6 the other 11/4?

Slattsy

Toronado was backable att hat price.

Much in it?