Ascot Saturday

longshotvalue

3:45 Ascot

I have to agree with rossom here as i’ve been waiting to bet Maarek for this during the week as I wanted a nrnb at decent odds. He is very unlikely to run if it doesn’t rain and will shorten significantly as soon as it does. The 25/1 now available with Sky bet, will look exceptional value of it rains. His last run was poor but his previous run behind Society Rock when 5th makes those odds looks very attractive as an EW bet. Obviously the more rain the better but he’ll have some chance if he runs at all.


1pt EW 25/1 SkyBET Non Runner No Bet

tryfix

Have been waiting all week for the Hardwicke and Ektihaam, Mount Athos will make his price and may indeed be hard to beat, but Mount Athos didn't beat much the last day and Ektihaam put in a top top performance to my eyes when beating Thomas Chippendale by 6l at Ascot last time out.

madmoose

Was a class ride by Hanagan that day on ektihaam from the front but will he go that option again tomorrow as he has been trying it on alot of horses this week.

jimjamcos

tryfix wrote: »

Have been waiting all week for the Hardwicke and Ektihaam, Mount Athos will make his price and may indeed be hard to beat, but Mount Athos didn't beat much the last day and Ektihaam put in a top top performance to my eyes when beating Thomas Chippendale by 6l at Ascot last time out.

His run behind Al Kazeem 2 runs back is the best form in the race. It was Al Kazeem's first run back after injury but if Ektihaam's any sort of price tomorrow I'll be backing him too.

UrbanSea

Have never warmed to Maarek and it will be a poor race if he wins with his form this year. At prices Rosdhu Queen is worth a chance, if it stays quick the Fastnet Rock could run them into the ground

Gringo180

jimjamcos wrote: »

His run behind Al Kazeem 2 runs back is the best form in the race. It was Al Kazeem's first run back after injury but if Ektihaam's any sort of price tomorrow I'll be backing him too.

It was also Ektihaams first run back so even more impressive form, he's currently 3/1 with PP.

the groutch

Krypton Factor looks very overpriced in the Jubilee going on his Dubai form, and will love the fast ground.

Slattsy

the groutch wrote: »

Krypton Factor looks very overpriced in the Jubilee going on his Dubai form, and will love the fast ground.

This race is a bit of a puzzle.

the groutch

Slattsy wrote: »

This race is a bit of a puzzle.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/26024447.jpg

UnitedIrishman

Ektihaam my only bet tomorrow to try get me out of a hole. Form is good beating Thomas Chippendale and Number Theory by a fair bit over course and distance on the same ground lto. Only a length and a quarter behind Al Kazeem before that.

All in at 3/1.

dave3004

5/2 is a nice price about Mount Athos. Ive taken it. Wont SP that big i'm sure.

Shahwardi at 3/1 is also big price.

the groutch

dave3004 wrote: »

Shahwardi at 3/1 is also big price.

7/2 with Hills, have him in an optimistic double with Rye House in the 5:00 (Hills also best price at 13/2)

longshotvalue

4:25 Ascot

Elusivity’s win record is poor enough really but in general he has been consistent enough. He sticks out here as being overpriced at 25/1 with 5 places on Paddy Power, and has a touch of class that a lot of these have yet to prove. He has been good form in all his runs this year and it’s a bit of a surprise for me that he is that unconsidered in this handicap at a mark he is more or less proven off.


1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places Paddy Power

I’m going for a min bet on a gut feeling selection as well, which is fairness has almost no reasoning behind it. Bapak Chinta won a very good 2yo race at Ascot a couple of years ago, and really didn’t show anything at all after that. I did see a tiny glint of hope last time out and he has dropped considerably in mark which might give him a tiny chance back here. It be kicking myself if he improved here and i wasn’t on at 80/1 on Betfair.

½ Point win 80 Betfair

longshotvalue

5:00 Ascot

Silver Lime looks a fair bit overpriced here considering his very good run in the Ladbroke’s mobile over this c&d and conditions last year. He also showed up well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket and although he was outpaced over a shorter trip next time out he has surely been aimed at this race. He has a first time hood on tomorrow and 22/1 with Paddy Power looks well worth a bet.


1 Point EW 22/1 Paddy Power

jimjamcos

3.05 Had a good bet on Ektihaam @ 3/1 earlier. Great run FTO this season behind Al Kazeem then trounced Thomas Chippendale and Main Sequence at Ascot LTO when making all under Hanagan who has already rode to such tactics brilliantly this week when nearly pinching the Prince of Wales. Ektihaam will take all the catching.

3.45 Respect the unheralded and massively talented Society Rock but value's gone with him now given he can often start with the handbreak on. Have backed Maarek ew @ 20/1 as agree with the lads that he'll be a fraction of that price if weather turns. Have also backed Slade Power ew at 14/1. Eddie Lynam is a master with his sprinters and he's never hidden his confidence in Slade Power. Nearly sure he's on record as saying he thinks he can reach a similar level to Sole Power. He's been brought along gently from the injury suffered in Group 2 at Ascot at end of last season but his seasonal debut at Curragh on Guineas weekend was promising. He should improve for that run and fast ground would suit.

byronbay2

3.45 I had a look at the form for this race before looking at the prices and could not believe that Zanetto is chalked up at 38 on Betfair (for small money) at the moment - 28/1 with Ladbrokes and PP. I know it is hard for 3yos to win these big sprints but this is a fast-improving colt who won a listed race well (by 3 1/4L) over 6f LTO in a good time on g/f ground.

Obviously, it is a wide open race but I was expecting a price of 14-16/1 and consequently feel that Zanetto is very over-priced for this race. Hoping for little or no rain to fall between now and 3.45 tomorrow.

ShaneU

Racing Post app have tipped an unraced 66/1 shot in the first race Calrissian with Fallon on board. Never seen them pick such a rank outsider before so seemed odd to me. Would back Somewhat 9/2 myself.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

Already mentioned it on another thread but I highly recommend taking the 25/1 available about Maarek for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes with Skybet NRNB for the weekend. Rain is forecast and if it comes up soft he is going to have an enormous chance in what looks a very weak race given that its a Grade 1 and he won't run unless there is some juice in the ground. Although disappointing when a comprehensively beaten 2nd at the weekend, this doesn't concern me in the slightest as he finished 2nd behind Katla (a horse who he is much better than) 6 days before his Group 2 success last year - the same number of days since his recent outing come Saturday. He'll go off a single figure on the day if it comes up soft/heavy and if it does I think he has got an absolutely massive chance of winning.

Doing a rain dance!

the groutch

love people's optimism, but the going is was good to firm yesterday, the little bit of rain due will make no real difference.

John Mongo

Racing Post has tweeted that the going has remained good to firm, after 2mm's of rain last night.

longshotvalue

3:45

This race looks on the face of it between the top 2 in the betting here. They have proved a number of times to be a step ahead of most of the rest of the field here and its hard to see any change in that today. There is an unknown in Sea Siren and possibly Slade Power but I think the value here has to be the 8/1 Available about Gordon Lord Byron. There isn’t a lot between him and Society Rock, who is one of my favourite horses, but 8/1 looks too good to resist, and I think he is more of a 5-6/1 shot. I also have Maarek bet earlier in the week in the hopes of rain, which now doesn’t look like arriving, but he still may get into a place.


2 Points win Gordon Lord Byron 8/1 Paddy Power

longshotvalue

2:30

I’m going of something fairly straightforward in the 2yo race. Aidan O’Brien’s Friendship is available at 14 on Betfair at the moment, and despite the fact that he didn’t win on debut (which doesn’t mean anything as they always improve for a run), that price is too big to ignore. I find these 2yo races a total lottery at the best of times but the stable choice of runner here isn’t a 14/1 shot.


1 Point win 14 Betfair

Slattsy

Don't have time for any write ups but if you want to get rich quick today then get on these bad boys lol

2.30 - Bunker
3.05 - Mount Athos
3.45 - Soviet Rock
4.25 - Prodigality ew
5.00 - Caravan Rolls On

billy2012

Few tricky races today!!

carmanard

Took a break from Ascot yesterday. Glad I did as I'd have only had a string of losers!! Fresh ideas today, so here's hoping... I think there could be a skinner in the Chesham, love the look of Clive Brittain's horse Street Force, by Street Cry from a family containing multiple winners, finished a cozy 4th on debut & wasn't knocked around, Brittain's horses usually improve massively for their first run & he won this race 2 years back... Could be another one of Clive's rainbow tilters of course, but at the price I'll take a shot... Slade Power in the golden jubilee for me, seasonal reappearance against 2 race-fit rivals was perfectly acceptable & I suspect he has a really big run in him today... Having backed slade power, I'll have to put up Hitchens in the Wokingham, track conditions should suit, weight isn't insurmountable, stable runners usually go well in this race and Murtagh has been delivering in spades this week, so I'll take a chance on him... Finally, I see Ponty Acclaim is running in the 3.00 at Ayr, can't let her go unbacked as she definitely has the ability to win a race like that....

jimjamcos

Surely Maarek wont run if the going remains good to firm?

rossom

Maarek runs unless the ground gets any quicker...shocked at that decision and goodbye money.

ste2010

Mark Johnson was just in ATR reckons his best chance of a winner is universal 12-1 in the second and not somewhat who is jfav in the first

Anyone

Just a E/W Lucky 15 for me today.

2.30 Somewhat
3.05 Mount Athos
3.45 Hawkeyethenoo
4.25 York Glory

Slattsy

Anyone else Channel 4 reception very poor with Sky??

hawkhead

Looks a really tough day to be finding winners.

Have had a decent bet on Mount Athos @ 11/4 in the Hardwicke.

A couple to have caught my eye at nice e-way prices in the Wokingham are both trained by Ron Harris,
Prodigality@33/1 and Secret Witness @ 66/1.

Society Rock looks like the one to be on in the Jubilee but is too short for me now so I'm looking at backing Sirius Prospect @50/1 who I feel is a huge price if he get away to a decent start. He has decent form at the course having finished 5th here on champions day last year beaten 2.5 lengths by Maarek but just edging out Society Rock having had a troubled passage during the race. With a bit of luck in running I'm hoping he can run a big race today.

longshotvalue

hawkhead wrote: »

Looks a really tough day to be finding winners.

Have had a decent bet on Mount Athos @ 11/4 in the Hardwicke.

A couple to have caught my eye at nice e-way prices in the Wokingham are both trained by Ron Harris,
Prodigality@33/1 and Secret Witness @ 66/1.

Society Rock looks like the one to be on in the Jubilee but is too short for me now so I'm looking at backing Sirius Prospect @50/1 who I feel is a huge price if he get away to a decent start. He has decent form at the course having finished 5th here on champions day last year beaten 2.5 lengths by Maarek but just edging out Society Rock having had a troubled passage during the race. With a bit of luck in running I'm hoping he can run a big race today.

had a tiny bet at 150 on betfair last night on witness, couldnt let him go of at that price..

ironkiwi

2:30 Freedom Square 16/1

hawkhead

aidankkk wrote: »

had a tiny bet at 150 on betfair last night on witness, couldnt let him go of at that price..

Really need to open myself a betfair account.
Thats a super price, lets hope he does the business.

hawkhead

The Godolphin second string Autumn Lily @14/1 looks a far price in the Chesham. Fillies have a decent record in the race so a small eway for me.

mr.jingle

Not doing a bet but looking at the races i'd be inclined to go with these some nice each way bets today.

2.30 Lone Warrior 66/1 E/W
3.05 Ektihaam 11/4 Win Nap
3.45 Roshdu Queen 18/1 E/W
4.25 Rex Imperator 10/1 E/W
5.00 Stencive 8/1 Win
5.35 Sohar 33/1 E/W

UrbanSea

Bunker could be above average given he won first time out over six for a hurricane run, would like master carpenter to win for Mastercraftsman

hawkhead

Delighted for Jim Crowley, deserves a big winner

longshotvalue

hawkhead wrote: »

Really need to open myself a betfair account.
Thats a super price, lets hope he does the business.

he is actually 170 now.... If you like longshots you have to be on betfair.. Im mean he seems unlikely to win but hes certainly not a 170/1 shot..

Slattsy

aidankkk wrote: »

he is actually 170 now.... If you like longshots you have to be on betfair.. Im mean he seems unlikely to win but hes certainly not a 170/1 shot..

As a matter of interest, how much could you get on at that price?

longshotvalue

Slattsy wrote: »

As a matter of interest, how much could you get on at that price?

you can have €100 at 160 or above there now..

ironkiwi

3:05 Universal 10/1

Cart

One bet today Gordon lord Byron, hogan says he needs decent ground and will relish the stiff 6 furlongs. that'll do for me

mailburner

think to call it a day when something like that happens
hard to believe he wouldnt have won that race
slipped on a bend and unseating jockey for those not watching (ektihaam)

1st 8 Thomas Chippendale (IRE) 8/1
2nd 2 Dandino 10/1
3rd 9 Universal (IRE) 10/1

John Mongo

Jockey took a bad fall off Ektiham there. Looked nasty.

Hopefully Thomas Chippendale is ok too.

Itziger

Jesus, that could have been nasty. What a fall. Winner looks fcuked now too

Shane732

Not a bad week for Johnny!

carmanard

Dodged Thomas Chippendale as I reckoned Hanagan's mount had his measure. FFS... I'm amazed the horse didn't injure himself when slipping up, bad enough slap for Hanagan... Doesn't look good for Thomas Chippendale either, jebus...

jimjamcos

Sickened having backed Ektihaam but even more sickened for Thomas Chippendale who I have backed many times in the past. RIP

Backstreet Moyes

Uh Ektiham sums up my week. Is the ground still against Maarek having one last bet for the day thinking of Maarek.

Slattsy

As i thought, Mount Athos didnt have the speed for 1 1/2 miles.
Would have done Ektihaam otherwise so still would have lost!!