Predictions invited on outcome of Tipperary Constituency General Election 2016?

Xenophile

Tipperary South and Tipperary North currently with three seats each are to be merged into one five seat constituency at the next election.

The outcome is shaping up to be very interesting. Tom Hayes’s recent appointment was strategic or expedient maybe, some would call even cynical in an effort to hold on to two F.G seats in Tipperary.

It is rumoured in his area that Seamus Healy will retire from politics before the election.

I expect the result to be as follows, elected in no particular order

Tom Hayes F.G.

Alan Kelly Lab.

Another F.G. from Northern part of the constituency

Fianna Fail F.F from Northern part of the constituency

Michael Lowry Ind.

Don’t think Mattie McGrath will make it, apart from anything else geographically is very badly placed in the county.

Davin Stand

I would not rule out a FF candidate from the South of the County. Large amount of votes around Clonmel Local Electoral area. Would that not be a more likely result that 4 TDs from North Tipp and only 1 (our new junior Minister!!) from South Tipp.

Xenophile

Davin Stand wrote: »

I would not rule out a FF candidate from the South of the County. Large amount of votes around Clonmel Local Electoral area. Would that not be a more likely result that 4 TDs from North Tipp and only 1 (our new junior Minister!!) from South Tipp.

Just cannot see any strong candidate emerging from the south, the party seems to be in disarray here. Maybe someone from the North Tipp will give us an opinion.

cml387

Xenophile wrote: »

Just cannot see any strong candidate emerging from the south, the party seems to be in disarray here. Maybe someone from the North Tipp will give us an opinion.

Surely Siobhan Ambrose's time has come. Attractive candidate, no baggage from the previous lot. I'd say if FF run her she'll do well.

I won't be voting for her of course but I reckon she has a chance.

Cerbera

I predict Lowry won't run next time and I predict Alan Kelly will struggle to get elected as he's more Fine Gael than the Fine Gael members and will have lost a lot of the Labor vote.

Micheal Lowry (the son) will probably run and may even make it, but it's unlikely he will.

I think the FF candidate(s) will be the ones who pull the biggest votes and I reckon Mattie McGrath will make it.

Xenophile

Cerbera wrote: »

Alan Kelly will struggle to get elected .

There is a large working class vote in South Tipperary, he needs to open a clinic in Clonmel. He may also have a running mate in Phil Prendergast as the chances are she will hardly be re-elected to Europe. The Labour has been very good to her giving her that nice plum job in Europe. Some of Healy's votes will go to Labour and of course Kelly will get many second preferences from Fine Gael.

Xenophile

cml387 wrote: »

Surely Siobhan Ambrose's time has come. Attractive candidate, no baggage from the previous lot. I'd say if FF run her she'll do well.

She is too associated with old school Fianna Fail through her parents, lovely people, who worked their socks off in the days of Haughy, Renolds, Ahern and Cowen. Is too well associated with people who made the mistakes of the past.

Fries-With-That

Interesting speculation,

FF haven't got a contender in the wings in North Tipperary.

Noel Coonan will make his seat for FG
Tom Hayes should also get elected for FG
Michael Lowery will get his seat and have a running mate that might pinch a seat.
Alan Kelly will struggle to retain his seat as will all labour candidates.
Mattie McGrath should hold his seat.

So I see it as

2 FG
2 Lowery Party
1 Independent FF

Fries-With-That

Xenophile wrote: »

There is a large working class vote in South Tipperary. Some of Healy's votes will go to Labour and of course Kelly will get many second preferences from Fine Gael.

The labour party is no longer seen by 'the working class' as their party, I think that people no longer view labour politicians as supporters of the working class.

When it comes to peoples pockets people have long memories and the perception is that this government have hit those voters with less in their pockets harder than everyone else.

The blame for this will be laid at the door of the labour party and their candidates will suffer badly.

From talking to people I get the impression that people voted for labour as a kind of safety valve to curb the enthusiasm for austerity favoured by FG and far from being a safety valve they have endorsed all the cutbacks.

cml387

The sheer size of the constituency will be a problem for independents.
Big parties can split the county. But on the borders of Offaly and Galway, who knows Mattie Mc Grath?

Grab All Association

In North Tipp

Alan Kelly will lose his seat as most of his support comes from the lower ormond barony in North Tipp which will be part of the South Offaly constituency and plus what has he ever done for South Tipperary.

Michael Lowry will keep his seat he will have support reaching from part of Nenagh-Thurles-Killenaule-Cashel

Noel Coonan Templemore-Roscrea should be safe

Like what is happening with these new Municipal districts. South Tipp will end up with 3 seats and North Tipp 2 seats.

Paarthurnax

Transfers are going to be crucial in this election so it depends who else stands besides the obvious candidates. Tom Hayes should bring in Noel Coonan, Lowry will pull in enough even though he loses a sizeable base in Lower Ormond, Mattie Mcgrath should pick up on the FF votes. Alan Kelly will struggle as will Labour countrywide. The 5th seat will depend on who stands and where the transfers go.

laoch na mona

hopefully hayes and lowery lose there seats. i would like to see sinn fein get a seat and maybe wuag get 2 but thats just wishful thinking, i fear that people will revert to FF as always

Xenophile

Paarthurnax wrote: »

Transfers are going to be crucial in this election so it depends who else stands besides the obvious candidates. Tom Hayes should bring in Noel Coonan, Lowry will pull in enough even though he loses a sizeable base in Lower Ormond, Mattie Mcgrath should pick up on the FF votes. Alan Kelly will struggle as will Labour countrywide.

Mattie McGrath is too isolated and many in FF resent his success. You are probably right about Coonan.

Let me say this loud and clear...........Alan Kelly is the only career politician in Tipperary and believe it or not he is South Tipperary's best hope at representing their views since Richard Mulcahy, leader of the pro treaty party after the shooting of Michael Collins represented South Tipperary in the 1950's as Minister For Education. I expect Kelly to put in the work to bring him to the cabinet table at some point in his career.

Davin Stand

In a 5 seat constituency a candidate needs to get 16% of the vote to reach the quota. It is hard to imagine that Fianna Fail would get less than 16% of the vote. In the last election at their lowest point ever, FF finished in 4th place in both South and North Tipp.

Xenophile

Davin Stand wrote: »

In a 5 seat constituency a candidate needs to get 16% of the vote to reach the quota. It is hard to imagine that Fianna Fail would get less than 16% of the vote. In the last election at their lowest point ever, FF finished in 4th place in both South and North Tipp.

I agree completely Fianna Fail will take a seat.

tipptom

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath is too isolated and many in FF resent his success. You are probably right about Coonan.

Let me say this loud and clear...........Alan Kelly is the only career politician in Tipperary and believe it or not he is South Tipperary's best hope at representing their views since Richard Mulcahy, leader of the pro treaty party after the shooting of Michael Collins represented South Tipperary in the 1950's as Minister For Education. I expect Kelly to put in the work to bring him to the cabinet table at some point in his career.

There is no doubting Kellys naked ambition and his brothers powerful connections to help him with that,but he hasnt a cat in hells chance of getting re-elected after going back on his own promises and his partys disgraceful self-admitted lies to get in to government.
He will go the same as most of them in labour at the next election with their remaining 6 TDs if they are lucky in mostly City districts.

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

There is no doubting Kellys naked ambition and his brothers powerful connections to help him with that,but he hasnt a cat in hells chance of getting re-elected after going back on his own promises and his partys disgraceful self-admitted lies to get in to government.
He will go the same as most of them in labour at the next election with their remaining 6 TDs if they are lucky in mostly City districts.

Naked ambition without corruption is a good definition of leadership even if it is just at a local level. The Labour votes in South Tipperary will get him over the line and he will also get many second preferences or even # 1's from F.G. voters who are disillusioned with the quality of their own candidates.

I expect the referendum on the Seanad to be defeated and there will be one ore two in South Tipp looking for a seat there and I think that being on Kelly's side will be more than helpful.

Xenophile

See Mattie McGrath is at it again today sniping on the proposed abortion legislation.
As Mattie lives just a few miles from Mount Melleray Abbey. He should realise this country now wants Home Rule not Rome Rule.

digzy

[QUOTE=

I expect the referendum on the Seanad to be defeated and there will be one ore two in South Tipp looking for a seat there and I think that being on Kelly's side will be more than helpful.[/QUOTE]

Are you serious? I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it. One of my favourites is 'checks and balances', whatever that means, given that the government of the day control it too.

Only ones who want it are the old farts who feel it is needed on principal or failed politicians looking for a cushy number. The only ones any use in it are Norris and crown. Ross is in the dail now.

Check out the debate on the late late when Ian o Doherty destroyed done Cassidy of the wonderful Finnan fail.

laoch na mona

digzy wrote: »

Are you serious? I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it. One of my favourites is 'checks and balances', whatever that means, given that the government of the day control it too.

Only ones who want it are the old farts who feel it is needed on principal or failed politicians looking for a cushy number. The only ones any use in it are Norris and crown. Ross is in the dail now.

Check out the debate on the late late when Ian o Doherty destroyed done Cassidy of the wonderful Finnan fail.

well it should be reformed seen as the dail is packed with idiots who need to be kept in check. Also I reckon the referendum will end up on more then just the seanad. the govt will likely just scrap that part of the constitution which also covers the rule of the president

digzy

laoch na mona wrote: »

well it should be reformed seen as the dail is packed with idiots who need to be kept in check. Also I reckon the referendum will end up on more then just the seanad. the govt will likely just scrap that part of the constitution which also covers the rule of the president

In what way should it be reformed?
As regards the 'idiots' in the dail, whether you like or not they've received a mandate from the irish people. Something that many of the seanad members have failed to achieve.

Xenophile

Replying to digzy......."I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it." This is not the place to debate An Seanad but I cannot leave your comments go unchallenged


FORMER TÁNAISTE AND Justice Minister Michael McDowell has mounted a strong defence of the Seanad as the campaign to abolish the upper house got into full swing today.

McDowell is part of the Democracy Matters group which will be campaigning for retention and reform of the Seanad in the forthcoming referendum and told RTÉ Radio this morning that the chamber is important to the country.

“People like Mary Robinson will not be heard again in our parliament,” he told Myles Dungan on the Today with Pat Kenny programme referring to the former president who was a Labour senator in the 1980s.

http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10155208%3A133%3A12%2D06%2D2013%3A

He said the upper house is able to scrutinise legislation to a greater degree and could hypothetically petition the president of the day to put a piece of legislation to a referendum of the people.

“People forget about that. That’s a particular provision in the Constitution that enables the wishes of the majority of the Dáil not to have a manner properly debated dealt with,” he said.

He said that proposals to reform the Dáil would not lead to an “upgraded and revamped” lower house and said that Taoiseach Enda Kenny could implement most measures announced yesterday right now instead of changing the Constitution.

Muppets and clowns
McDowell also rejected claims from presenter Dungan that there are and have been “muppets” in the Seanad: “I’ve never come across a muppet in the Seanad, never once.”

“I’d challenge either of you and I’d ask [Fine Gael TD] Paschal [Donohoe] to identify a muppet in the Seanad, because there are a fair few clowns in the Dáil, if you don’t mind me saying so.”
The barrister later said that the Seanad could give greater scrutiny to legislation concerning the European Union, adding: ”Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace and various other people, Michael Healy Rae, will not be interested in doing that type of work”

On the same programme, the Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe said that his party and the government believed that a country the size of Ireland could have more democracy with fewer politicians. ”This isn’t a smash and grab, this isn’t a power grab,” he insisted.

McDowell later said that abolition of the Seanad “is a bit like saying I don’t think the fire escape in my house is very good, let’s tear it out completely or I am not sure of my alarm system let’s tear it out as well”.

“If something isn’t working well, you make it work well,” he added.

With all due respects if you want to inform yourself as to the reasons for retaining the Senate you can do so on the Democracy Matters website
http://democracymatters.ie/

laoch na mona

digzy wrote: »

In what way should it be reformed?
As regards the 'idiots' in the dail, whether you like or not they've received a mandate from the irish people. Something that many of the seanad members have failed to achieve.

make it democratic

digzy

laoch na mona wrote: »

make it democratic

we already have that it's called the dail

Xenophile

digzy wrote: »

we already have that it's called the dail

This thread is about predicting the outcome in the next General Election, maybe you would like to give us your prediction.

tipptom

I would prefer to not take my instructions on what way to vote on a referendum from somebody who kept the most corrupt party in Irish history in government so he and his right wing PD idiots could retain power for as long as possible.
His reason for wanting to retain the Senate is he wants to start a new party,knowing that he cannot possibly get elected himself as he has been rejected by the people but will use his new influential TDs to get him back to the house without having to rely on the great unwashed vote.

Xenophile

tipptom wrote: »

I would prefer to not take my instructions on what way to vote on a referendum

Please note that this thread is about predictions for the constituency of Tipperary after the next election. Plenty of opportunity for people to voice their views on the Seanad on the Politics forum. Politely yours OP.

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

This thread is about predicting the outcome in the next General Election, maybe you would like to give us your prediction.

to be fair it was you who made the first ref to the seanad.

As regards a prediction on an election without knowing the candidates involved...

digzy

Xenophile wrote: »

Replying to digzy......."I haven't heard a decent argument yet not to abolish it." This is not the place to debate An Seanad but I cannot leave your comments go unchallenged


FORMER TÁNAISTE AND Justice Minister Michael McDowell has mounted a strong defence of the Seanad as the campaign to abolish the upper house got into full swing today.

McDowell is part of the Democracy Matters group which will be campaigning for retention and reform of the Seanad in the forthcoming referendum and told RTÉ Radio this morning that the chamber is important to the country.

“People like Mary Robinson will not be heard again in our parliament,” he told Myles Dungan on the Today with Pat Kenny programme referring to the former president who was a Labour senator in the 1980s.

http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10155208%3A133%3A12%2D06%2D2013%3A

He said the upper house is able to scrutinise legislation to a greater degree and could hypothetically petition the president of the day to put a piece of legislation to a referendum of the people.

“People forget about that. That’s a particular provision in the Constitution that enables the wishes of the majority of the Dáil not to have a manner properly debated dealt with,” he said.

He said that proposals to reform the Dáil would not lead to an “upgraded and revamped” lower house and said that Taoiseach Enda Kenny could implement most measures announced yesterday right now instead of changing the Constitution.

Muppets and clowns
McDowell also rejected claims from presenter Dungan that there are and have been “muppets” in the Seanad: “I’ve never come across a muppet in the Seanad, never once.”

“I’d challenge either of you and I’d ask [Fine Gael TD] Paschal [Donohoe] to identify a muppet in the Seanad, because there are a fair few clowns in the Dáil, if you don’t mind me saying so.”
The barrister later said that the Seanad could give greater scrutiny to legislation concerning the European Union, adding: ”Ming Flanagan and Mick Wallace and various other people, Michael Healy Rae, will not be interested in doing that type of work”

On the same programme, the Fine Gael TD Paschal Donohoe said that his party and the government believed that a country the size of Ireland could have more democracy with fewer politicians. ”This isn’t a smash and grab, this isn’t a power grab,” he insisted.

McDowell later said that abolition of the Seanad “is a bit like saying I don’t think the fire escape in my house is very good, let’s tear it out completely or I am not sure of my alarm system let’s tear it out as well”.

“If something isn’t working well, you make it work well,” he added.

With all due respects if you want to inform yourself as to the reasons for retaining the Senate you can do so on the Democracy Matters website
http://democracymatters.ie/

you're correct. This aint the thread for discussion on seanad reform. There is a thread on the politics forum i've already read. It's quite interesting.It's convinced me of voting to abolish the seanad even more.

In reference to your points above,

1. A seanad seat isn't a prerequisite for higher office. There are quite a few able people who've passed through it and remain in it. However,I dont feel the expense involved is justified.

2. Has the seanad ever petitioned the president to put a referendum to the people? I doubt it. As I've said already, the government of the day control the seanad.

3. while I'm no fan of the hypocritical actions of ming or wallace, both have achieved a mandate. mc dowell hasn't one. He's trying to imply that you need the seanad due to a superior intellect of member. Now i cant name too many seanad members but I dont have much faith in fidelma healy eames or mary louise o donnell to scrutinise european legislation compared to say alan shatter. In any case there's a team of civil servants, attorney general and other lawyers to advise any government on these issues. When bertie rewarded eoghan harris a seat for backing him on the late late a few years back I knew it was a spent docket.

4.As regards the fire escape analogy, sure anyone could use an analogy to get across their point. I've an old tv. The picture is poor and it burns electricity. Should I waste even more money trying to fix the picture knowing that it'll still cost a bomb on fuel or do I get rid of it knowing it's outlived it's usefulness. Probably a silly analogy but not much worse than mc dowell's.


McDowell aint god. He's highly intelligent, capable,eloquent, professionally successful but he still hasn't a mandate. Sorry, his argument isn't compelling for me. We've too many politicians as it is.

Mary lou made a good point last week, that given the general cynicism amongst the public for politicians she felt that if there was a referendum to scrap the dail, it'd be carried!

As taxpayers we all should have a say on how public money is spent. I dont agree with how a fair chunk of it's spent but if I get an opportunity to vote against what i believe is a talking shop i'll take it. I'd much rather the 10-50 million -depending who you listen to-was spent on greater public services or ideally reduced taxation.

The Woodcock

There's speculation in the latest issue of The Phoenix that Mattie McGrath is being courted by FF leadership and may well rejoin the party before the next election. Like him or loathe him, Mattie does have a national profile and would be a good bet for a seat with the FF vote behind him.

Lowry will probably run again and will definitely get in if he does. Comments above that he would pull in a running mate are well off the mark in my view. There's no-one in his party who has the calibre to be a TD.

Noel Coonan is a poor representative for North Tipp and I can't think of anything notable he has done since elected. Nevertheless he will get in on the back of the strong farmer vote.

Tom Hayes and Alan Kelly have benefited from the profile associated with their ministerial portfolios. Kelly is a slick operator with resources behind him and will make it back in in spite of Labour's poor showing.

Seamus Healy has done remarkably well to secure a seat before but his political machine is almost non-existent outside Clonmel and in a bigger constituency that will work against him.

So two FG, and one each from FF, Labour and Independent is my prediction.

Xenophile

The Woodcock wrote: »

There's speculation in the latest issue of The Phoenix that Mattie McGrath is being courted by FF leadership and may well rejoin the party before the next election. Like him or loathe him, Mattie does have a national profile and would be a good bet for a seat with the FF vote behind him.

Lowry will probably run again and will definitely get in if he does. Comments above that he would pull in a running mate are well off the mark in my view. There's no-one in his party who has the calibre to be a TD.

Noel Coonan is a poor representative for North Tipp and I can't think of anything notable he has done since elected. Nevertheless he will get in on the back of the strong farmer vote.

Tom Hayes and Alan Kelly have benefited from the profile associated with their ministerial portfolios. Kelly is a slick operator with resources behind him and will make it back in in spite of Labour's poor showing.

Seamus Healy has done remarkably well to secure a seat before but his political machine is almost non-existent outside Clonmel and in a bigger constituency that will work against him.

So two FG, and one each from FF, Labour and Independent is my prediction.

Interesting speculation, Mattie McGrath's issues were mainly with Bertie Ahern. I would say he will be back in Fianna Fail as it seems FF do not have a great choice in the county. I would think your prediction is accurate.

The Woodcock

The front page of last week's Tipp Star is interesting. The lead story is about a major revamp and extension of Our Lady's Secondary School in Templemore, for which funding has just been secured. What is notable is that Principal Patricia Higgins praises the role of Alan Kelly in the project; nowhere is there a mention of Templemore man Noel Coonan.
Coonan is also under pressure as a result of proposals to reduce opening hours at Templemore Garda station. This would mean the station would be closed at night and a huge swathe of his area would be covered from Thurles. This would not go down well with locals, especially with robberies on the rise in rural areas.

A feather in the cap of Alan Kelly, while Coonan would want to get his act together or he could be vulnerable.

varberg

Alan Kelly is easily the best politician Tipperary has had for the last 30 years. I was never a labour voter but i voted for him last time and i know of a few others who did. He listens to what the people want and goes about getting it. The bridge in Ballina, the school in Templemore, the improvments in Nenagh, the improved rail links, cycling and sporting events i could go on..He is just starting out which is great for Tipperary. Definately a future party leader, an outstanding politician the area really needs.

In my opinion the other politicans in north and south tipp are mostly unseen from one election to the next. Coonan was a name i hadnt heard of since the last election and i dont really know what he has done for the constituency or country in the meantime, can anyone help me out ? Lowry was brilliant back in the 80s getting feile, trying to get factories etc but he seems to be out of favour with the political parties and isnt much use on his own and thurles has paid a price for keeping him as their number one.

In south tipp mattie mcgrath is at least heard and he works hard in the area. Healy is another on the outside trying to make improvments. Tom Hayes has a ministerial position and now needs to show what he can do for a region that has top agricultural land. He needs to help the area as much as possible, more factories meat factories, sugar factories, anything to bring employment and if he does he will be applauded and voted in top of the pile. So far though he hasnt been seen or heard too much.

I think if tipp is too improve its county next time out kelly should top the pole, hayes on the back of doing something good for the area as minister, a fianna fail candidate, be it mattie mcgrath or a.n. other, someone for the thurles area, i dont think mick lowry will have the swing with the parties to help the area much now so maybe his son micheal lowry should run he should get a lot of his vote and either a second fine gael or fianne fail or a sinn fein candidate should they pick a good one. There is a lot of unemployment in the area and a young sin fein councellor in nenagh, thurles or clonmel should garner a lot of these votes and could take a seat, maybe depending on the strength of the independent candidates in the area.

But if Alan Kelly isnt voted in Tipp will remain on the outside and looking in at the rest of ireland progressing without it. He is the best politician in the county by far. Its going to depend on the national consensus but really id imagine tipps five in the dail would line up something like, 1.labour,2.fine gael,3.fianna fail, 4.sinn fein and 5.one of fg,ff or indep.

touts

The gombeen vote will keep both Michael Lowery and Mattie McGrath in their seats. They will also pick up enough FG and FF votes respectively to do damage to both those parties. Like most Labour TDs Alan Kelly is a dead man walking as Labour follow the PDs and Greens in an election day massacre. I'd expect Healy will pick up a disaffected left vote from Kelly especially as Sinn Fein and the Socialists dont exist in the county. FG will lose a serious amount of votes but should hold at least one seat. Neither Coonan nor Hayes seemed to want to be returned up to now and there was a rumour that Hayes was going to be bumped up to Ceann Comhairle so FG would keep at least one seat. But his recent promotion should raise his profile enough to keep his seat. Certainly Kenny would not have promoted him if he was about to retire.

That'll leave Coonan and a FF candidate fighting it out for the last seat. It could depend who gets the FF nomination. Apparently Hoctor is going again in North Tipp while Ambrose and Davern jr want the nod from the south. Personally I think Davern would lose an election as he has nothing going for him other than his daddy was Minister for Education for a few weeks. Ambrose also has the advantage of being female in a male dominated field. It wouldnt suprise me to see an all female ticket from FF. Which of them wins will be a case of who manages to stay ahead of the other in the count.

So my prediction is

Lowery Ind (with Lab votes)
McGrath Ind (with FF votes)
Healy Ind (with lab votes)
Hayes FG
Hoctor/ Ambrose FF

But the final fly in the Ointment could be a new Center-Right party or a splintet Labour Party. Kelly shows no signs of being worried about the poor or the working class so he is unlikely to join any splinter party so I'd say one way or another he's going down with the Labour Titanic. But a new center-right party could be interesting especially if they picked up some high profile candidates. I'd say we'll know this year (after the budget) if there will be any new parties.

The Woodcock

Interesting post Touts. What is your view on the possibility of Mattie doing a 'kiss and make-up' with his old party and running on the FF ticket? This would effectively rule out Ambrose/Davern. What about Davern's son? I've never even heard of him before and he's not a County Councillor to my knowledge. It would be depressing to see these family dynasties continuing.

A motion was passed at the last FF Ard Fheis barring those who had declined to stand and defend their seats at the last election from standing at the next election. While Maire Hoctor does not fall into this category, having stood but lost her seat, I think it signals an appetite among FF grassroots not to return to the past and those who are tainted by association with the last government and election meltdown. In these circumstances, Hoctor might not be a good choice of candidate. Her dreadful performance on Prime Time is sure to get a further airing if she runs again.

I think it is important not to underestimate geography which is always a significant factor but will I believe become crucial in this enlarged constituency. Voters may opt for a local candidate who they can reach easily rather than a candidate from their traditional party who is miles away at the other end of the county. Mattie's base around Newcastle is very peripheral in relation to the rest of Tipperary. Seamus Healy is in the same boat. Alan Kelly, on the other hand, will benefit if there is no other strong candidate from the Nenagh area. Location in the heart of the county may bring more votes Lowry's way. You could well see one TD from each of the following areas - Nenagh & District (Kelly), Roscrea/Templemore (Coonan), Thurles (Lowry) Cashel/Cahir/Tipp Town (Hayes) and Clonmel/Carrick (possibly Mattie, Ambrose or an outside chance for Healy)

I don't see Healy picking up a seat to be honest. The past few years have shown us that in spite of all the turmoil, Irish voters remain a conservative lot, especially in rural areas. Tipperary is far from a hotbed of left-wing radicalism - I say this as a left-wing person who would vote for Healy ahead of Kelly. There are not many like me around the place. Sinn Fein have a decent enough candidate in Seamus Morris from Nenagh who has been building his profile over the past few years and would be in as a good a position to pick up any radical vote across the county.

touts

Can't see Mattie going back into FF. From FF's point of view this is the second time he left the party and ran as an independent defeating the official party candidate in the process. If they take him back it will send a message throughout the party that if you don't get selected or you think you have a better chance as an independent then you can come and go as you please. From Mattie's point of view he's got to know he is not a front bencher. With so few FF TDs currently he'll get some airtime for the next couple of years but after the next election if they pick up 10 or 15 seats he'll be a backbencher and will be denied access to the likes of the Last Word for his hairbrained ideas.

You're not the only one who has never heard of Davern's son but that isn't stopping him looking for the seat. By all accounts his daddy's men are promoting him big time within the local party cumanns etc. It seems to be a classic case of the younger members of a political dynasty having no talent but thinking they have a god given right to the nomination. Hoctor has some credit in the bank with the party members for at least fighting the last election unlike many other TDs & Ministers. And she might look older but she is actually only 50 and has a few years left in her. Plus she is a woman in a field that will be male dominated. I think an all-female ticket with a former Junior Minister from the north and a highprofile Cllr (Ambrose) from the south will appeal to the party HQ as they will see the female vote as having a cross county vote winner. It might be the only party strategy that sees significant transfers staying within the party rather within the old constituency (e.g. I would say Hayes' vote will more likely transfer to another South Tipp candidate than to Coonan and vice versa).

In general I'd agree that geography is an issue. Candidates from the North will seriously struggle to pick up votes in the South as there seems to be genuine fear that the south is losing out to the north with most of the united council facilities being based in the North. There seemed to be a scramble to spend any money left in the budget before the big bad northeners come in and take it all. At least that's the way local politicians are spinning it. I presume there is a similar feeling in the North. We're likely to see a 3-2 split between South and North and it will be interesting which of area gets the last seat. If it is 3 from the North and 2 from the South it will be spun locally as a devastating blow for the south.

In terms of the areas you listed Nenagh & District is not large enough to return Kelly in a Labour national meltdown. Throw in the possibility of Hoctor (and Morris) also running in the area plus Healy taking the left wing vote in the South and I can't see Kelly being returned. Tipperary may not be a hotbet of the left but there are enough large towns with a large working class areas in the new constituency to return a left wing candidate. Healy's campaign team are excellent at getting into these areas while Kelly is rapidly becoming a poster boy for how labour lost touch with working people. Of course if Healy retires then that would strengthen Kelly's appeal in the south as none of Healy's minnions in WULAGGGG (or whatever the hell it is called) have any profile outside their family and friends (because that's the way Healy wanted it after Prendergast stabbed him in the back). On the subject of Prendergast she is the South Tipp labour candidate of choice but there is no way labour will run two candidates and my bet is Prendergast will be happier to sit out the labour meltdown from the sidelines in Europe and then take advantage of being an MEP and one of their only remaining elected representatives (well not really elected more appointed) and grab some airtime vacated by her defeated party colleagues in the run up to the European elections. Hell if their numbers dip low enough there might even be a front bench slot for her (afterall FF at one point had to but a Cllr on the front bench). There just isn't a Sinn Fein vote in the county. Morris may well poll better than any previous Sinn Fein Candidate and do enough to hurt Kelly in his home town but he won't be close to winning the seat. There is a left wing seat and Healy will get it (if he still wants it).

I can't see FG retaining their two seats in the counstituency. You have to remember their vote will take a serious hammering in the election. They are spinning that the worst is over in terms of taxes but the way they have structured the tax increases a lot of those taxes are due in the next two years. The full property tax hits next year and the Water tax is due in 2015. These will make things much harder for people who will resent the government spin that things are getting better. Throw in the downgrading of hospitals in Nenagh, Cashel and Clonmel by Reilly and things could be very bad for FG come the election. If someone dies in an Ambulance on their way to A&E in Waterford then FG could lose both seats. However they will most likely not face a Fianna Fail wipe out but they will probably lose a seat in each constituency. Hayes has a significantly larger base (as well as Cashel, Cahir and Tipp Town he has a presence in Clonmel) than Coonan (Roscrea/Templemore) and now he seems to be the party's annointed one having been made a junior minister. My bet is Coonan will lose his seat.

mikemac1

The Woodcock wrote: »

Her dreadful performance on Prime Time is sure to get a further airing if she runs again.

This keeps getting brought up.

Does any voter in Tipp actually care? Working on live TV isn't easy and right after it happened sure Miriam O'Callaghan said it happens to her all the time.
I can go on youtube and find thousands of live TV gaffes

She got flustered but carried on and got on with it, it's no big deal.
Facing hecklers over Nenagh hospital in the Abbey Court Hotel or on a platform in Banba Sq was a far more difficult task. And she got through it. Ok, lost her seat but why do people still talk about Primetime

Sierra Oscar

Kelly will find it hard to hold his seat, his vote is collapsing in his very own heartland. Lowry will be elected comfortably. FF will be hoping to take two seats, targeting a seat in both the north and southern end of the constituency. I wouldn't rule out Mattie McGrath being back in FF at that stage, which would make it much easier for them to achieve two seats. FG will lose one seat, and I suspect Coonan is now on his way out given that Hayes has been promoted to Junior Minister. It shows that FG are worried about their two seats in Tipperary at the very least. Despite SF's strong showing in opinion polls I don't think there is a seat for them here. Morris has failed to build any sort of a base outside of Nenagh and he is the only person on the ground that they could put forward.

2FF
1FG
1IND

The last seat will be a toss up and will be very hard to call until the election is closer, a lot of it depends on whether Healy runs again. FG will be hoping to take the second seat while Labour will be praying that they can just about clench it. If Healy runs he will get it, which would make it 2 FF, 2 IND, 1 FG.

tipptom

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Kelly will find it hard to hold his seat, his vote is collapsing in his very own heartland. Lowry will be elected comfortably. FF will be hoping to take two seats, targeting a seat in both the north and southern end of the constituency. I wouldn't rule out Mattie McGrath being back in FF at that stage, which would make it much easier for them to achieve two seats. FG will lose one seat, and I suspect Coonan is now on his way out given that Hayes has been promoted to Junior Minister. It shows that FG are worried about their two seats in Tipperary at the very least. Despite SF's strong showing in opinion polls I don't think there is a seat for them here. Morris has failed to build any sort of a base outside of Nenagh and he is the only person on the ground that they could put forward.

2FF
1FG
1IND

The last seat will be a toss up and will be very hard to call until the election is closer, a lot of it depends on whether Healy runs again. FG will be hoping to take the second seat while Labour will be praying that they can just about clench it. If Healy runs he will get it, which would make it 2 FF, 2 IND, 1 FG.

Think your bang on the money there.Shocking to think in such short space of time that FF could have 2 seats back but I think that's the way its going to go,their only struggle will be to find the right candidates.
A lot of people seem to think Kelly is a shoo in for his seat but I don't think he has a chance with the violant swing that is coming against Labour and there is an arrogance about him that he is to busy with high level politics and his naked political ambition to awnser his supporters querys into Labours abandonment of all their pledges.
Morris needs to pick up floating voters and I think he alienated a lot of them with his crude comments about the Mc entee family,actually don't think SF will get a lot of more seats than they have nationally.

Fries-With-That

mikemac1 wrote: »

This keeps getting brought up.

Does any voter in Tipp actually care?

Facing hecklers over Nenagh hospital in the Abbey Court Hotel or on a platform in Banba Sq was a far more difficult task. And she got through it. Ok, lost her seat but why do people still talk about Primetime

Yes actually some of us do, I voted for Maire in the past because I believed that she would be a good person to represent people from North Tipperary.

She lost her seat because the people in North Tipperary had, had enough, of her dithering poor performance.

Prime Time (she knew the questions and if she knew her brief she would have only needed the tele prompter as just that a prompter).

Banba square, on the podium she had to appeal to the chairman for help when she was heckled by the crowd.

The town hall debate before the last election she claimed to have had to go to the credit union to borrow money for her campaign, that was the final straw for me, after a term as a TD with some of it as a Junior minister her finances were in such poor condition that she needed a credit union loan
(incidentally she also said this before her first campaign).

Looking around FF do not have a credible candidate in North Tipperary.

Alan Kelly may be a professional career politician with a lot of clout but its going to be a major battle for him or any labour candidate to get elected.

Noel Coonan will get elected.
Michael Lowery will get elected if he runs.
Mattie McGrath bangs enough drums and rattles enough cages to get himself elected.
There is room for a candidate that appeals to a broad spectrum of disconsolate voters.

Lowery, Coonan, Mcgrath, A N Other/Fianna Fail candidate, Kelly by skin of teeth.

alyssum

touts wrote: »

T Ambrose also has the advantage of being female

and like davern jnr is noted for her daddy politician and not a lot else

Xenophile

Has the visit of the Revenue Commissioners sealed Deputy Lowry's fate. Very little support for him in the Southern end of the constituency. This could be a game changer.

The Woodcock

Xenophile wrote: »

Has the visit of the Revenue Commissioners sealed Deputy Lowry's fate. Very little support for him in the Southern end of the constituency. This could be a game changer.

It's hard to say, we'll have to wait and see what comes out of the raid and if there are any tax issues arising. Lowry is also being sued by a Dublin accountancy firm who claim he owes them over €1m in unpaid bills. His legal and tax troubles continue to mount and may well impact on his ability to run a proper election campaign - he may simply not have the resources.

However, I would not underestimate the amount of support he continues to enjoy in his Mid Tipp heartland. The Tipperary Star has practically been his propaganda arm for years now and put on another disgraceful display of biased journalism in last week's edition. It is not unusual for them to print entire statements of his verbatim on the front page and they have never had the courage to criticize him or ask any of the hard questions.

Lowry has done a lot of small favours for people over the years which will stand to him and there is an element of the Irish electorate who love a maverick. In fact, his appeal might even be heightened in the present economic turmoil as he can cast himself as some sort of radical outsider. One way or another, Lowry's goons and lackeys will rally round him now and maybe even follow him over the cliff like the lemmings they are.

tipptom

The Woodcock wrote: »

It's hard to say, we'll have to wait and see what comes out of the raid and if there are any tax issues arising. Lowry is also being sued by a Dublin accountancy firm who claim he owes them over €1m in unpaid bills. His legal and tax troubles continue to mount and may well impact on his ability to run a proper election campaign - he may simply not have the resources.

However, I would not underestimate the amount of support he continues to enjoy in his Mid Tipp heartland. The Tipperary Star has practically been his propaganda arm for years now and put on another disgraceful display of biased journalism in last week's edition. It is not unusual for them to print entire statements of his verbatim on the front page and they have never had the courage to criticize him or ask any of the hard questions.

Lowry has done a lot of small favours for people over the years which will stand to him and there is an element of the Irish electorate who love a maverick. In fact, his appeal might even be heightened in the present economic turmoil as he can cast himself as some sort of radical outsider. One way or another, Lowry's goons and lackeys will rally round him now and maybe even follow him over the cliff like the lemmings they are.

He seems very sure that there is nothing for them to find on the raid,wouldnt be surprised if intense pressure was brought on people by the Sunday Independent because their tapes are not being listened to and they thought they had DOB indirectly snared on them.
If the tribunal costs goes against him,he will be a goner as he will refuse to pay but then again it could galvanise all his supporters to have the biggest whip round in political history which will be another nice record he will bring on Tipperary

touts

With revenue given the responsibility for stealing the Home tax from people's wages, pensions and welfare I'd say a raid by them could even be a vote winner certainly among the people who voted for him up to now.

Another development on the various offspring of past Fianna Fail TDs looking for the nomination. Apparently Michael Smith's son has thrown his hat into the ring and a grandson of Des Hannifin also fancies his chances. So that makes it a Davern a Smith and a Hannifin all looking for their god given right to the nomination purely on the basis of their family right to rule. Meanwhile the women Hocter and Ambrose seem to be the real power in the party but could lose out in a battle between the family men. Its like the wars of the roses but everyone is a Richard III.

Xenophile

Mattie McGrath I would say raised his chances of re-election by convening and chairing the meeting held in Cahir earlier this week on the pylons issue.

Xenophile

Xenophile wrote: »

There is a large working class vote in South Tipperary, he needs to open a clinic in Clonmel. He may also have a running mate in Phil Prendergast as the chances are she will hardly be re-elected to Europe. The Labour has been very good to her giving her that nice plum job in Europe. Some of Healy's votes will go to Labour and of course Kelly will get many second preferences from Fine Gael.

Phil Prendergast was NEVER elected to Europe. It's going to be a very interesting election. I don't think Siobhan Ambrose has a high enough profile outside of Clonmel to be elected. Mattie McGrath is too unpredictable and parochial to do any good next time.

The Woodcock

Xenophile wrote: »

Mattie McGrath I would say raised his chances of re-election by convening and chairing the meeting held in Cahir earlier this week on the pylons issue.

I heard there was a massive turnout for this meeting. It will certainly cement Mattie's support in his heartland, but how many people in mid and north Tipperary care one way or another about these pylons?

It is also amazing what motivates people to go out and attend meetings like this. People are up in arms about pylons but if Mattie called a meeting against the bailout or some similar national issue would he get anything like the crowd? Just goes to show how parochial most people are when it comes to politics.

Xenophile

The Woodcock wrote: »

It is also amazing what motivates people to go out and attend meetings like this. People are up in arms about pylons but if Mattie called a meeting against the bailout or some similar national issue would he get anything like the crowd? Just goes to show how parochial most people are when it comes to politics.

Mattie managed to draw National radio attention through the Sean O'Rourke's Today programme on RTE radio. As they say all politics is local. No strong candidate emerging in North Tipp. I think Alan Kelly will buck the Labour collapse and hold his seat. As you may have noticed he has began to hold clinics in Clonmel.

jem

N Coonan will lose his seat- not liked , and has done very little.
Ml Smith Jnr- to win seat for FF(topped pole in last locals)
Ml Lowery will win again.
Battle for last 2
expect both from South with 1 fg and 1 lab/ left.