Wednesday 22nd May

MoscowFlyer

I have absolutely no clue about this horse but I just know it's gonna be backed off the boards tomorrow because of the Richard Hughes / Jonjo O'Neill hook up.

Dream Catcher 5/1 - 7.30 Kempton

Im on anyway. Totally blind but sure what's money!?!

Johner

Hughes was riding for Jonjo today and it drifted like a barge.

I've had a bet on Representingceltic in the 3.10 at Huntington at 4/1.

Pat power

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

I have absolutely no clue about this horse but I just know it's gonna be backed off the boards tomorrow because of the Richard Hughes / Jonjo O'Neill hook up.

Dream Catcher 5/1 - 7.30 Kempton

Im on anyway. Totally blind but sure what's money!?!

Did they not already hook up today with a runner in the 1850 at pontrefact and it was stuffed,drifter big time as well

rossom

5.00 Lingfield

Orpsie Boy 13/2

There is a definite concern about Orpsie Boy's ability to stay a mile but this well handicapped 10 year old has a very eye catching booking in Silvestre De Sousa who has this sole ride at Lingfield before heading to Kempton for his book of rides for which he will surely need a helicopter to get to and this looks a huge indication that a massive run is expected by the Ruth Carr stable. Last season Orpsie Boy started off the season in tremendous fashion when winning on his seasonal reappearance off a mark of 81 before 2 very decent efforts followed off marks of 87 on his next couple of starts. His form largely tailed off for the most part for the rest of the season (he did chase home the very well handicapped Idler off a mark of 80 back in September) but resultantly he has become a very well handicapped horse as he is now rated 75 having been dropped 2lb for an encouraging reappearance which should have put him spot on for this. This represents a rare runner at Lingfield at Ruth Carr and the booking of De Sousa, who was successful on his sole start on Orpsie Boy, looks a very eye catching booking with the jockey going to Lingfield for this one engagement. Tactics will be very interesting given that Orpsie Boy is unproven at the distance but there seems a fair bit of pace in the race so it is possible that he will be held up in the rear for a late run. Similarly, he is well drawn in stall 4 so De Sousa may try and get a decent position near the pace on the rail before attacking into the home straight but I don't really mind which tactic is employed as long as he wins! Ruth Carr's string has gradually started to get into top gear recently and with De Sousa needing to make his way to Kempton via aerial means I am sure a very big run is forecast on what is the yards only runner of the day.

rossom

8.00 Kempton

Grayswood 16/1 NAP

I am absolutely stunned to see such a big price available about William Muir's handicap debutant who looks on a very nice opening mark of 66 upped in trip to 1m4f which will suit this 3 year old tremendously and if fully fit for his first start in 6 months I think he's bound to go very close to winning this. A 75,000 Gns purchase as a yearling, Grayswood is a half brother to 5 winners including the US Grade 1 winning Ticker Tape who is bred to be a middle distance horse and I think he showed considerable promise on his two all weather starts as a 2 year old over inadequate trips when seen staying on late to good effect. Having bombed out on his racecourse debut on soft ground at York last October, Grayswood showed a lot more encouragement when beaten 4L in 5th on his 2nd start over 7f at Kempton. Settled on the rail in mid division in a steadily run contest, Grayswood was still travelling well under Martin Dwyer at the 2f pole but got outpaced when the eventual winner Lilac Tree suddenly injected pace in the contest before Grayswood stayed on in the final furlong although he never troubled the leaders. The form of that race isn't too bad with the winner running a decent enough race on his 3 year old debut off a mark of 79 whilst the runner up Swift Bounty was a very eye catching 4th on his handicap debut off the same mark on his his only subsequent outing. Grayswood again put in an improved performance on his final start back in November when upped to an extended 1m at Wolves when again staying on late to finish 3rd.

In another steadily run contest, Grayswood was held up in the midfield and travelled into the race well once more but was again found wanting when the winner Tight Knit quickened up off the front heading into the home straight and although Grayswood didn't have the speed to go with that rival he did finish strongly to come 3rd. The form of that race is decent if not superb but one telling thing to note from that race is that the favourite Grendisar, who was also having his 3rd start, finished back in 7th and although that rival has appreciated the step up in trip since then (which Grayswood will no doubt relish as well) he faces Grayswood on 8lb worse terms for that outing and the price disparity between between the pair is absolutely astronomical to me. He's been put away since then and I am not at all surprised to see him up significantly in trip to 12f for his handicap debut given that it should suit ideally when looking at his pedigree. Although the only horse in the race not to run in 2013, you've got to take his fitness on trust but I think the fact he's not starting off the season over a shorter trip indicates he is fully wound up for his reappearance. Additionally the booking of Silvestre De Sousa, who has a good record for the yard, certainly gives a strong indication of Grayswood's readiness and I'm confident he'll be fit enough to do himself justice today. Although William Muir hasn't had a good 2013 with only two winners so far, he did have a winner with his only runner Yesterday so I'm hoping its a sign of better things to come for the yard starting with Grayswood today. Looking at this contest, there doesn't seem to be any out and out front runner which is a bit of a concern as I am sure Grayswood would appreciate a race run at a decent clip but hopefully this 7 runner contest is run at a decent clip. Judged on what he has shown on the track and looking at his breeding, I am very confident that Grayswood has more than enough ability to win off a mark of 66 over middle distances and if fully wound up it would not surprise me in the slightest to see Grayswood start single figures off bottom weight of 8-12. If ready to do himself justice, I am very confident of a big performance from Grayswood and if he wins this in good style I won't be the least bit surprised as I strongly feel he'll end up to be considerably better than a mark of 66.

ste2010

Ruby riding of 10st again today for Tony Martin on lancing in the handicap hurdle in sligo.

Fancy another trump in Huntington 3.10. Last win was on course in between a string of losses. Also jonjo has won this race last year.

WATCH prices with twigline and on his own. I think on his own running could be a betting shield similar to recent Mullins plots with pique sous and fosters cross (collaborating with Tom Mullins).
With weights anyway twigline could be the selection.

Sea lord at Huntington NHF is the other bet of the day for me likely to be short though

the groutch

going for Sommersturm in the 8:50 Worcester.
Dave Evans seems to have been running any horses he's bought off Barney Curley to their merits, including this one who has won twice this year already on the flat and is currently rated 65 in that sphere.
With this being his first run over hurdles since joining the yard, a jumps mark of 75 could be made look quite foolish, the same marks as when he was travelling very well when falling 3 out when last seen over hurdles.

the groutch

ste2010 wrote: »

Ruby riding of 10st again today for Tony Martin on lancing in the handicap hurdle in sligo.

I'd have a few quid on his other one in the race though, ruby's one could well be a decoy to get a big price on the other.

fangee

ELUSIVE WARRIOR in the 1.50 at Southwell at 20/1.

Yard is in decent form and not too bothered by the jockey as she has partnered this horse relatively successfully in the past.

If today is a "go" day for the 10 year old then a good run can be expected from a decent draw.

ste2010

fangee wrote: »

ELUSIVE WARRIOR in the 1.50 at Southwell at 20/1.

Yard is in decent form and not too bothered by the jockey as she has partnered this horse relatively successfully in the past.

If today is a "go" day for the 10 year old then a good run can be expected from a decent draw.

Isn't it awful these days that additional analysis is required to figure out if the horse is set out to run a true race!

fangee

ste2010 wrote: »

Isn't it awful these days that additional analysis is required to figure out if the horse is set out to run a true race!

Sure is. Talk of "betting shields" says it all.

maximo31

Anyone here have an opinion on Sacre Malta running in the 6.40 at Sligo? Was watching his race the last day and it looked like he was only out for a spin and didnt try an inch. I am far from an expert so could be wrong!!:o
Thinking of having a small EW on him......

ste2010

the groutch wrote: »

I'd have a few quid on his other one in the race though, ruby's one could well be a decoy to get a big price on the other.

Have a guess whats happening on the market...rubys horse drifting ... The other Martin horses 10's and shortening with PP's ...other bookies yet to catch on
Maybe your right has the early signs of a plot

ste2010

ste2010 wrote: »

Ruby riding of 10st again today for Tony Martin on lancing in the handicap hurdle in sligo.

Fancy another trump in Huntington 3.10. Last win was on course in between a string of losses. Also jonjo has won this race last year.

WATCH prices with twigline and on his own. I think on his own running could be a betting shield similar to recent Mullins plots with pique sous and fosters cross (collaborating with Tom Mullins).
With weights anyway twigline could be the selection.

Sea lord at Huntington NHF is the other bet of the day for me likely to be short though

Another trump 5-1 this morning now 5/2 fav with lads...he must be getting a run today..thank god I've my money on but the whole thing is criminal

the groutch

ste2010 wrote: »

Another trump 5-1 this morning now 5/2 fav with lads...he must be getting a run today..thank god I've my money on but the whole thing is criminal

non-runners at 11/2 and 7/1 will have accounted for some of that

Hulk Hands

ste2010 wrote: »

Another trump 5-1 this morning now 5/2 fav with lads...he must be getting a run today..thank god I've my money on but the whole thing is criminal

10/3 in a place, same price really considering the rule 4's

Hulk Hands

I agree though, I think he has a very good chance if putting his best foot forward

Johner

Nice debut by Dubawi Fun for Ismail Mohammed. I know rossum likes him as a trainer he is defintely worth following.

glic71rods46t0

Tom Pepper in The Sun has Napped My Stroppy Poppy in the next at Sothwell. Just put a couple of euro at 43/1 on betfair for an interest

rossom

Johner wrote: »

Nice debut by Dubawi Fun for Ismail Mohammed. I know rossum likes him as a trainer he is defintely worth following.

Yeah very nice debut (although he probably didn't beat a whole lot) and trainer's first juvenile runner of the season. Didn't really know what to expect so didn't put him up but will be keeping a very close eye on the rest of trainer's 2 year olds for the season. Ismail Mohammed is fast making a very big name for himself. 11 winners from 20 runners so far in 2013.

rossom

Orpsie Boy was very poor there.

byronbay2

Anyone watch the 4.30 at Lingfield? Decent fillies handicap for the track, won well by Sylvia Pankhurst. However, without doubt, the horse to take out of it was Bright Glow: won over 7f last time but slowly away today (over 6f) and stone last turning in to the short straight. Absolutely flew past the field (Arazi-style) in the final furlong to finish second but the winner had flown. Looks a sure-fire future winner when put back over 7f, assuming she is not crucified by the handicapper. Definitely one for the tracker!

the groutch

rossom wrote: »

11 winners from 20 runners so far in 2013.

half of them were Mubtadi though :pac:

jimjamcos

byronbay2 wrote: »

Anyone watch the 4.30 at Lingfield? Decent fillies handicap for the track, won well by Sylvia Pankhurst. However, without doubt, the horse to take out of it was Bright Glow: won over 7f last time but slowly away today (over 6f) and stone last turning in to the short straight. Absolutely flew past the field (Arazi-style) in the final furlong to finish second but the winner had flown. Looks a sure-fire future winner when put back over 7f, assuming she is not crucified by the handicapper. Definitely one for the tracker!

Be no price wherever she turns up next i'd guess. Almost too blatant an eye-catcher!!

rossom

the groutch wrote: »

half of them were Mubtadi though :pac:

Only 8 horses have run for the yard though. Winners broken down as follows

Mubtadi 5-6
Educate 2-3
Admirality 2-2
Light Burst 1-3
Dubawi Fun 1-1

Magic Lando, Alhaarth Beauty and Autumnus have 5 runs with no wins between them.

Pat power

rossom wrote: »

Orpsie Boy was very poor there.

Had a pony e/w on him,very disappointing i must say:(

ste2010

Whatever happened there with Mullins horses was deserved! Great performance by seskinane!

Johner

ste2010 wrote: »

Whatever happened there with Mullins horses was deserved! Great performance by seskinane!

Mullins got given the race. Seskinane disqualifed.

It was a pretty blatent barge and we will never know but I think Seskinane would have beaten Twigline anyway with On His Own third.

ste2010

It looked that way alright! Just never seen the judges overturn before...

Johner

From the Irish Field's Twitter,

Seskinane has been disqualified from winning the conditions hurdle at Sligo.

The disqualification follows a lengthy enquiry after Seskinane barged his way out to make his challenge in the straight

On His Own has been awarded the race with Twigline placed second

Seskinane's jockey Derek Fox was found guilty of dangerous riding and under the rules dangerous riding results in a horse ...being disqualified from their placing irrespective of the winning margin

MyStubbleItches

Johner wrote: »

From the Irish Field's Twittter,

Seskinane has been disqualified from winning the conditions hurdle at Sligo.

The disqualification follows a lengthy enquiry after Seskinane barged his way out to make his challenge in the straight

On His Own has been awarded the race with Twigline placed second

Seskinane's jockey Derek Fox was found guilty of dangerous riding and under the rules dangerous riding results in a horse ...being disqualified from their placing irrespective of the winning margin

Do first past the post rules still apply?

jimjamcos

Right or wrong decision? Would the same have happened if shoe was on the Mullins foot?

the groutch

jimjamcos wrote: »

Right or wrong decision? Would the same have happened if shoe was on the Mullins foot?

my thoughts exactly, if it was one of Willie's horses I don't think they would have changed the result.

hard to judge from the angle how much he "barged" though, because from the front it didn't like much more than clipping twigline's heel, but obviously th judges had every camera angle available.

one thing we can be sure of is that if the incident didnt happen Seskinane would have still won easily, and it seems a bit harsh for them to overturn the result when it didnt effect who won.
a ban of 28 days for the jockey should have been sufficient imo.
not pocket talking btw.

jimjamcos

the groutch wrote: »

my thoughts exactly, if it was one of Willie's horses I don't think they would have changed the result.

hard to judge from the angle how much he "barged" though, because from the front it didn't like much more than clipping twigline's heel, but obviously th judges had every camera angle available.

one thing we can be sure of is that if the incident didnt happen Seskinane would have still won easily, and it seems a bit harsh for them to overturn the result when it didnt effect who won.
a ban of 28 days for the jockey should have been sufficient imo.
not pocket talking btw.

That seems to be the general concensus and I think common sense should of prevailed. Very harsh!

Pat power

jimjamcos wrote: »

Right or wrong decision? Would the same have happened if shoe was on the Mullins foot?

Not a chance,shocking decision IMO

UrbanSea

Thought it was a poor call, think he would have still pissed it. Local victory it would have been, even though there were 2 short favs there was an awful lot of money on that horse


And through my pocket, anyone think Tin Town Boy got a shocker of a ride

JuniorB

UrbanSea wrote: »

Thought it was a poor call, think he would have still pissed it. Local victory it would have been, even though there were 2 short favs there was an awful lot of money on that horse


And through my pocket, anyone think Tin Town Boy got a shocker of a ride

He's a tricky ride Urban - doesn't find a huge amount. Could have gathered him up a bit sooner but winner was comfortable enough in the end and probably had a bit in hand.

Thrown in off 52 on the flat, was competitive off mid 70's not so long ago.