Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

Newbury 2:40

Doctor Parks, seems overpriced with Ladbrokes here , after what looked a very decent seasonal reappearance in a very good race at Newmarket. He is down to a very reasonable mark and if he can build on that run this race doesn’t look as strong as his previous run. Conditions could be ideal for him here, and he is worth an EW bet at 25/1.


1 Point EW 25/1 Ladbrokes

Gatame

*hoping for a great saturday of punting again this week* - Will update my fancies in the morning.

UrbanSea

Ballinahow Star (8.20, Uttoxeter, 5/1)

Former pointer, she had smart form in that sphere, unseating first time out in January last year, before winning a Dromahane point next time out March last year before finishing runner up there four days later before again winning at Athlacca, beating a next time out winner in good style last May before going through the ring for 16,000 pounds in what looks a really good purchase.

Went straight over hurdles for her new trainer Jeremy Scott, making her rules debut last November at Exteter over 2 ½ miles, running a good second behing Young Victoria who was winning her second in a row, nicely clear of the remainder. Went one better next time out at Wincanton on soft ground over an extra two furlongs, winning more cosily than the 1 ¾ length winning margin suggests, shaken up and coming away nicely on the run in and won her next at Wincanton in the manner her 1/4 price would suggest, showing versatility for ground and trip, racing over 2 miles on heavy going giving weight away.

Was travelling fine when brought down on her handicap debut at Exeter last month off a mark of 120, and ran fine when eighth last time out in a hot Kempton Grade 3 handicap. This is much easier fitted with a tongue tie, and she should give her running.

Dark Castle (8.35, Doncaster, 22/1)

Think this looks a big each way price in what is a wide open race, which the market shows given it’s 8/1 the field. This fella looked to have a real bright future, coming on for his debut in December 2011 to land a Kempton six furlong maiden in good style January of last year in good style, landing some nice bets in the mean time, going off a really well backed 6/5 favourite from a horse who won 3 and was runner up 3 times since, rated 85.

It was a bit disappointing at the time to be beaten on his handicap debut over that C&D off a mark of 74, backed from odds against into 8/13, but the winner turned out to be a really well handicapped filly, winning off 72 that day but three wins since sees her rated 91 now. Got back to winning ways next time out off a mark of 77, comfortably beating a dual winner two lengths. He hasn’t proved as good on turf, but ran better than the result suggested in a really good Newmarket handicap this time last year behind the really smart filly Mince, holding every chance before weakening off 84, but was no better than mid division at Haydock.

Has only looked to be going through the motions of late, a bit disappointing when runner up at Kempton off 83 and then again in his last run last season at his favoured track when forth.Was sold since and has had two runs on turf this year for his new yard of Micky Hammond, running disappointingly at Newcastle when well beaten off a mark of 81, but there was more encouragement last time out over this course and distance off 78, shaping better than the bare result. Dropped to a mark of 76 and well drawn in 18, he looks well handicapped if he can transfer some of his smart all weather form to turf and looks a big each way price with the first four places being paid.


Sea Soldier 1.45 Newmarket 18/1

Talented but seemingly regressive gelding who once looked as if he’d have a future competing in some big handicaps. Having finished midfield in two maidens as a 2 year old back in 2010, he showed good progress as a three year old, finishing second first time out at Salisbury in a really good maiden, finishing a length behind Emilio Largo (rated 96), another length ahead of Moone’s My Name (rated 107) and cosily won a Warwick 7 furlong quick ground maiden next time out, beating a long odds on favourite in Kawssaj (easily won next time out, 3 lengths ahead of a dual subsequent winner).

Ran really well on his handicap debut over this course and distance in what was a very good race, finishing a little over a length behind White Frost(won since) in third off a mark of 80. Not so good on his next and final start at three in a good Doncaster handicap, he ran encouragingly first time out last season at Kempton off a mark of 84, finishing better than his position suggests (short of room), but was disappointing for the rest of the year, running poor races at Leicester and Kempton.

His mark has plummeted as a result, however, and fared with little encouragement on his return this year at Wolverhampton. However, his mark has dropped down to 75, and based on his earlier form he could be really well handicapped tomorrow where a first time tongue tie could bring out improvement in him. A risky bet, but a return to form would make this a big price for him in what isn’t the strongest race of races

ste2010

Points to note for some hunt racing - Jason McGuire rides down ace in the 4.50 in Bangor on dee trading about 3-1 on Betfair at the moment despite winning a grade 4 bumper on chelt. McCain has a runner in the same race so make what it of you will but McCain is riding terence o'briens horse.

McCain has also one horse which McGuire will also ride in uttoxeter in the last on the flat.

rossom

1.45 Newmarket

Greensward 28/1

Mike Murphy's 7 year old Greensward has fallen 7lb in two poor runs this season which I will touch on later on but he is now an extremely well handicapped horse off a mark of 78 and with strong C+D form in the book for an a superb outfit I think he looks very well weighted if bouncing back to form. Formerly with Brian Meehan, Greensward signed off his time Manton based trainer with a couple of wins in late 2011 including off a mark of 9lb higher mark of 87 at Chester before joining current connections. I think Greensward is the only horse to have joined the excellent Mike Murphy that hasn't been a success story but he certainly hasn't been a flop either. He ran well in January last year on the AW off a mark of 91 and after a couple of average efforts he was an extremely unlucky off a mark of 87 at Haydock last May when meeting interference which I think personally cost him the race. He wasn't at his best on his final 2 starts last year and the same can be said as he has finished a well beaten last on his two starts this campaign but I don't think its as straightforward as that. On his seasonal reappearance off a mark of 85 at Kempton he shaped very well for a long way back in February on what was a ride to blow away the cobwebs and the ground went against him on his final start with the rain ruining his chances. I distinctly remember him being very well supported from a double figure price into as short as 4/1 the night before his latest start at Leicester off a mark of 82 when the ground was good to firm but when the rain arrived he was very weak in the market which was evident in his run as he again didn't run well (wasn't unduly over-handled either). Rain soaked ground just isn't his thing (has been withdrawn 4 times because of it) and although a little faith is required from an inauspicious start to the season he has fallen 7lb for two runs to a mark of 78 which makes him a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, this 0-80 handicap is the easiest race he has competed in for a long time and he's definitely weighted to go very close if rediscovering his form over a C+D he goes well at. The good ground at Newmarket at the moment should be fine for him but if any rain comes (nothing forecast) then I think it will scupper any chance he has. Mike Murphy is my favourite trainer and has had a good start to the season so far and although Greensward is only worth a small each way off 9lb below his last winning mark and 9lb below the mark he was an unlucky loser in this month last year.

2.40 Newbury

Khawatim 13/2

Noel Quinlan's 5 year old Khawatim has been in absolutely belting form this year winning 3 of his last 4 starts and I think his 5lb rise for an impressive win at Kempton on his latest start looks very fair and I still think he is a major force to be reckoned with off a mark of 92. He started his winning trend for Quinlan back in January off a mark of 71 when he overcame trouble to get up late on before getting going too late as he couldn't reel back winner. He was then sent over to Dundalk (the trainer's first runner in Ireland since 1974) where he was punted like there was no tomorrow into 4/6 favourite and he duly obliged off a mark of 76 in easy fashion by 3L under today's pilot Ben Curtis. The handicapper took a dim view of that as he was raised 11lb to a mark of 87 but that didn't stop his progression as he won at Kempton in a manner that I was extremely impressed with. Settling in the rear of the field, Khawatim was still last swinging into the home straight under Adam Kirby and was about 7L off the pace with about 2f to go. Under a very confident ride (looked to me like it was only hands and heels) Khawatim made up an awful lot of ground in a short space of time to get up and score by 3/4L in a rather comfortable fashion late on. The progressive Yeeow was back in 2nd who has since gone on to frank the form strongly when winning in good style from a gambled on Hannon horse in a tough handicap at Ascot off a 2lb higher mark which makes Khawatim's new mark of 92 look more than fair. Khawatim switches to the turf for today's contest in what looks a very competitive race and although there has to be a small doubt about this surface given his winning has come on the All Weather he had some very useful from in France on turf and I think he'll be just as good if not better on grass. Ben Curtis, who seemed to get on with Khawatim really well at Dundalk, flies over from Ireland to ride him and I think he's got a really big chance of landing this. Sprinters in form are very much worth following and I'm confident that Khawatim can land this hat trick and continue his rapid progression.

rossom

2.50 Thirsk

Jedward 10/1

I've been waiting a long, long time for Jedward to wear blinkers as she has an awkward head carriage and off a mark of 81 that she is more than capable of winning off and in a race Kevin Ryan has won twice in the last 4 years. Formerly with Charles O'Brien in Ireland, Jedward showed some really strong form including going down by a head in 3rd where the 1st, 2nd and 4th Roicead, Murura and Maarek are all went on to be rated at least 22lb higher and she also went on to be beaten a neck by subsequent Group 3 winner My Girl Anna back in 2011 before she joined Richard Fahey in April of last year. After some decent placed efforts, she finally landed her 2nd career victory off a 1lb lower mark of 80 in a 0-90 handicap at Newmarket's July course to score by a head (front two over 3L clear) in a race that is really, really strong form. She bettered that performance 10 days later off a mark of 87 when running a blinder in a 0-105 handicap at Ascot with an even better performance when going down by 1L in 4th in a race that again is incredibly strong form. The winner Taajub was beaten by narrow margins in handicaps on his two subsequent starts including off an 8lb higher mark before being beaten a length in a Group 3 and the runner up Mass Rally was beaten a head on his next start in another ultra competitive handicap off a 2lb higher mark and he has since gone on to score twice subsequently including off a 9lb higher mark at York during the week and there is plenty more strong form in that race. She had one more start for Fahey when disappointing at Goodwood before being picked up for 21,000 Guineas last August by Kevin Ryan. After a promising 3rd at Chester off a mark of 87 in a strong looking contest, she was disappointing on her final 3 starts last year confined to very decent races which saw her mark fall to 82. Again, she was a little disappointing at Musselburgh on her reappearance at the end of March but she was drawn in stall 1 and the middle of the track was riding much slower than the rest of the track and I'm willing to forgive that run. She's been eased a further 1lb to a mark of 81 which is a mark that she is more than capable of winning off and I am delighted to see connections reach for a pair of blinkers as I think they could be the making of her. Drawn in the middle in stall 7, I think the plan will be for Amy Ryan to jump out and try and make all and with the rain pelting down at Thirsk likely to give her ideal conditions I think she has more than enough ability to win this mediocre enough looking sprint for an in form stable.

3.15 Newbury

Ray Ward 10/1

This represents a big step up in class for David Simcock's 3 year old but he has done very little wrong winning his last two starts well and this well bred son Galileo looks to be on a pretty decent mark of 83 for his handicap debut. A full brother to Aidan O'Brien's pretty high class performer Learn who wasn't beaten far in a French Group 1, Ray Ward was too green to do himself justice on debut but clearly learnt an awful lot for that experience when winning a Maiden in good style on his 2nd start back in January which is some pretty useful form. He was gelded after that run and seemed to improve considerably again on his latest start when winning a 0-75 Classified Race in very good fashion. Held up in the rear of the field, Ray Ward swung into the home turn still in last but Martin Lane produced him with a long and persistent hands and heels ride as he scored very comfortably by 1.5L and this €205,000 purchase looks to be progressing nicely. It looks very interesting that David Simcock sends him into such a competitive looking contest for his handicap debut but an effective mark of 83 (2lb out of the handicap) looks quite lenient judged on what he has achieved on the course and his breeding very much suggests he could be quite a bit better than this. This looks a supremely tough contest with the whole field unexposed and progressive and a few of these have entries in big races and its undoubtedly going to take a well handicapped horse to land this but I think Ray Ward looks just that. Off a nice low weight of 8-2, Martin Lane takes the ride looking to make it 3 wins in a row on board and if as good as his breeding suggests then I'm hopeful Ray Ward can spring a bit of a surprise in this fiercely competitive contest.

Overthelast

Jedward? On Eurovision day? Coincidence?

Overthelast

Da Rigeur and Jubilante at Newmarket for me today, ew singles and ew double.

Then Declartion of war to get my money back on the two above.

Slattsy

You're the only lad giving Declaration of War a chance.
Every one, myself included is being quite dismissive about his chance. You may end up being the only one right!

I strongly fancied Farhh earlier on this week, but after going though bits and pieces of form, I'm now split between him and Cityscape. There's literally nothing between them.

It will come down too whoever is fittest I think. Let's see where the money goes. I'll bet later.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

You're the only lad giving Declaration of War a chance.
Every one, myself included is being quite dismissive about his chance. You may end up being the only one right!

I strongly fancied Farhh earlier on this week, but after going though bits and pieces of form, I'm now split between him and Cityscape. There's literally nothing between them.

It will come down too whoever is fittest I think. Let's see where the money goes. I'll bet later.

I'm of the exact same thought. Have already backed Farhh so might cover it with a Cityscape RF. Really can't see the 2 out of the 3.

fangee

jimjamcos wrote: »

I'm of the exact same thought. Have already backed Farhh so might cover it with a Cityscape RF. Really can't see the 2 out of the 3.

Farhh seems to be drifting. 5's in places now.

droidman123

2.40 NEWBURY... Harrison George has a great e/w chance in this.he was a decent horse when with the fahy yard and has dropped to a fair mark.25/1 is huge. I think this horse definitely has another win in him before he hangs up his hooves.

droidman123

My nap of the day has to be cityscape.took 9/2 earlier. I just hope the money comes for him as a sign all is well with the horse.

Slattsy

After what Droidman has just said, Farhh is definitely the one to be on.
That was the sign I needed. Cheers bud.
Fill yer boots lads, fill away.

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

After what Droidman has just said, Farhh is definitely the one to be on.
That was the sign I needed. Cheers bud.
Fill yer boots lads, fill away.

Haha,as someone pointed out earlier,there really isn't much between cityscape and farhh on the form book,what swung it for me was the fact that the lay off for cityscape won't really be a negative as he has form when running fresh.

Slattsy

droidman123 wrote: »

Haha,as someone pointed out earlier,there really isn't much between cityscape and farhh on the form book,what swung it for me was the fact that the lay off for cityscape won't really be a negative as he has form when running fresh.

It was me who said that.

And i still haven't decided who to back. I'll wait until I see them in the paddock!

Overthelast

Just in case anyones interested, Colonel Mak runs again C3 @ Thirsk today. Poor draw but down in grade and weight is falling off him. He'll click soon at a tasty price

Overthelast

droidman123 wrote: »

My nap of the day has to be cityscape.took 9/2 earlier. I just hope the money comes for him as a sign all is well with the horse.

Hope you did with pp. Money back if second to the fav

Nulty

I have a sneaking one for Fencing @ 11/1 who has probably not reached his potential to date. Interesting that this is his first run on gf ground and a one from one record at Newbury. Looks a decent price for and interesting runner with potential

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

You're the only lad giving Declaration of War a chance.
Every one, myself included is being quite dismissive about his chance. You may end up being the only one right!

I strongly fancied Farhh earlier on this week, but after going though bits and pieces of form, I'm now split between
him and Cityscape. There's literally nothing between them.
It will come down too whoever is fittest I think. Let's see where the money goes. I'll bet later.

Here's why I like him. He's been backed all week. AOB has a direct measure of the ability of cityscape and farhh.

Farrhh has finished 2nd faaarrh too often. Beauty Parlour - filly, cannot be having that. Fencing/Trumpet Major etc all have a chance I guess but I was taken by DOW's performance LTO - only saw the replay this morning. He beat Bold Thaily Quill in effortless fashion. That horse is a tough & consisent sort, while below Grp class maybe, still, he cruised to victory. Plenty of scope as a 4yr old to improve. AOB stable in cracking form mopping up plenty of top races last 10 days. Heard on morning line M Tabor heading to Newbury today which gives me more confidence. I reckon he'll win today, then Ascot & Goodwood for the sussex stakes!

Slattsy

Overthelast wrote: »

Here's why I like him. He's been backed all week. AOB has a direct measure of the ability of cityscape and farhh

Thats actually the one thing that strikes me as to why he's so short, that he's clearly he's extremely well fancied, but to beat Cityscape for example, then DOW would need to be within a few lbs of Excelebration wouldnt he?
And i dont get that impression.

Meritocracy Wins

Interesting Ruby double tomorrow at Auetuil with Dakali and a Thousand Stars.

Gringo180

Went with an each way patent today lads.

Lady Kashaan 12/1
Jehannedarc 11/2
Salutation 8/1

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

Thats actually the one thing that strikes me as to why he's so short, that he's clearly he's extremely well fancied, but to beat Cityscape for example, then DOW would need to be within a few lbs of Excelebration wouldnt he?
And i dont get that impression.

Very true, but Coolmore run their training centre like clockwork, everything is time measured to perfection. He must have done some lightning work to justify the plunge of cash all week. I'm happy to follow that cash based on the ease of his fto run & massive contraction in price all week.

droidman123

Overthelast wrote: »

Hope you did with pp. Money back if second to the fav

Yeah I have it on with p.p. didn't know about the money back special when I put it on.

longshotvalue

Thirsk 3:25

Roker Park, is one that done me a favour in the past at a huge price, and although he was poor on his reappearance he always has been. He is down to a very decent mark and looks sure to pick up a race very soon. He may also need this run but is worth the risk at a big price just in case. He also has very good form on soft, which apparently the ground now is. The draw isn’t bad so 38 on Betfair looks a bit of value, and worthy of a min bet.


½ Point win 38 Betfair

longshotvalue

Thirsk 5:10

Kingscroft, has generally won when he got down to this mark in the past. He has plenty of form on soft ground and looks a huge price here on Betfair. He was poor last time but that can be excused as he had a bad draw at Chester.


½ Point win 36 Betfair

droidman123

Willingfoe for to kick start my poxy lucky 15

Slattsy

Jehenndarc here.

droidman123

Johner

Good man droidy!

droidman123

Johner wrote: »

Good man droidy!

The other three are a stone wall to lose! Had willing for at 11/2

Oscars Well.

Had the fav done at 11/4, saw he went 10/11 in running, what happened?

Slattsy

Tiger Cliff.
Gelded over the winter, might have plenty of improvement.
Eddie Ahern is a negative though.

mailburner

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Had the fav done at 11/4, saw he went 10/11 in running, what happened?

came there about 3 out going well and just flattened out
def needed the run by the looks of it
winner couldve been called the winner at that stage though


tiger cliff here for me also

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

Tiger Cliff.
Gelded over the winter, might have plenty of improvement.
Eddie Ahern is a negative though.

Nice one!

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Tiger Cliff.
Gelded over the winter, might have plenty of improvement.
Eddie Ahern is a negative though.

Whoooooooooooooooo

mailburner

get in

great start to the day

droidman123

Harrison George @25/1 e/w in the next

Slattsy

Followed the €€€€€€€ here and gone with the fav Khawatim @4/1

Oscars Well.

mailburner wrote: »

came there about 3 out going well and just flattened out
def needed the run by the looks of it
winner couldve been called the winner at that stage though


tiger cliff here for me also

Cheers! In college so can't watch any of the racing :mad:

mailburner

on moores mount but worried with the lack of money for it

Luap

Put a €.155 on Khawatin instead of 15. :rolleyes:

droidman123

Fooooooook...just out of the places

mailburner

that was close
plenty of cash for the hughes horse

hard to call but hayley definitely hasnt lost it

Shane732

F*ck it anyway!!

Slattsy

Is Dundonnell worth a serious bet later?

mailburner

half the field there didnt get a run

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

Is Dundonnell worth a serious bet later?

I have Baltic knight in that race,but I,m sure that won't put you off dundonnell

Slattsy

Hillstar = good thing

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

Thirsk 3:25

Roker Park, is one that done me a favour in the past at a huge price, and although he was poor on his reappearance he always has been. He is down to a very decent mark and looks sure to pick up a race very soon. He may also need this run but is worth the risk at a big price just in case. He also has very good form on soft, which apparently the ground now is. The draw isn’t bad so 38 on Betfair looks a bit of value, and worthy of a min bet.


½ Point win 38 Betfair

I think this might be a good bet

I'd take Fast Shot aswell at a smaller price