York Day 3

the groutch

3:50 York - Secret Look 9/1

fell out of the stalls last time at Nottingham, and finished like a steam train to get beat by less than half a length. the handicapper was a bit cheeky putting him up 4lb for that, but still looks progressive and represents a trainier that's been going well of recent (Ed McMahon). if he get out of the stalls this time he'll take some beating.

5:20 Aintree - Passing The Time 14/1

very poor on the flat, but won his first two runs over hurdles. a combination of the heavy ground and an extra 4f were his undoing on handicap debut, but was beat by only 2L last month when meeting all sorts of trouble in running near the finish. he was overpriced at 22/1 that day, and looks overpriced again running off the same handicap mark

ste2010

the groutch wrote: »

3:50 York - Secret Look 9/1

fell out of the stalls last time at Nottingham, and finished like a steam train to get beat by less than half a length. the handicapper was a bit cheeky putting him up 4lb for that, but still looks progressive and represents a trainier that's been going well of recent (Ed McMahon). if he get out of the stalls this time he'll take some beating.

5:50 Aintree - Passing The Time 14/1

very poor on the flat, but won his first two runs over hurdles. a combination of the heavy ground and an extra 4f were his undoing on handicap debut, but was beat by only 2L last month when meeting all sorts of trouble in running near the finish. he was overpriced at 22/1 that day, and looks overpriced again running off the same handicap mark

Pass the time in the 5.20? Neil mullholands?
In 7.05 I reckon JJ Lambe is up to a bit of sneakiness with Kingsmoss. Need to have a look at his last race in aintree but the fact they threw him on the all weather twice and then in Wexford in conditions that doesn't suit could suggest it may be laid out for the race at 33's

MoscowFlyer

All over JOSHUA TREE tomorrow in the Qipco Yorkshire Cup. Now with Ed Dunlop and Ryan Moore aboard. First run of the year but I think they will have it ready to fire and @ 5/1 it looks decent value.

3ndahalfof6

YORK

1:45 BLITHE SPIRIT 16/1

2:15 PILPITARIAN 25/1

2:45 GLENS DIAMOND 16/1 also JOSHUA TREE 5/1

3:15 ANNIE'S FORTUNE 9/1

3:50 THREES GRAND 16/1 also LASTCHANCELUCAS 25/1

4:25 IVAN VASILEVICH 20/1 also FORGET ME NOT LANE 9/1

5:00 BUCKSTAY 7/1


EW ACCUM ON THE 1ST SELECTIONS and EW TREBLE ON THE 2ND ONES.

longshotvalue

York 4:25

Barren Broke was oneI fancied at a big price for the Lincoln this year but he was withdrawn on the day. He has had a poor run since, but has a decent bit of York form and I’m hopeful that he is ready for a big run today. He has form on soft and is down to a career low mark. He is tried in a hood tomorrow. He’s worth a risk tomorrow at 18/1.


1 Point win 18/1 BetVictor

MoscowFlyer

WAR POET 25/1 - 4.25 YORK

Back down in the weights and has a 5lb claimer on board. It's a long shot because the horse has been struggling badly of late but has a decent record fresh and with the rain it should help so maybe this will be a chance to spring a surprise at a big price. Few quid E/W for me anyway.

3ndahalfof6

aidankkk wrote: »

York 4:25

Barren Broke was oneI fancied at a big price for the Lincoln this year but he was withdrawn on the day. He has had a poor run since, but has a decent bit of York form and I’m hopeful that he is ready for a big run today. He has form on soft and is down to a career low mark. He is tried in a hood tomorrow. He’s worth a risk tomorrow at 18/1.


1 Point win 18/1 BetVictor

What do you think? I am getting 12/1, but if I do £20 ew I get best odds, should I just do the £10 EW @ the price, or do you think it will drift ?

longshotvalue

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

What do you think? I am getting 12/1, but if I do £20 ew I get best odds, should I just do the £10 EW @ the price, or do you think it will drift ?

I wouldnt back it all at 12/1.. 16/1 in Paddy Power or boyles.

I wouldnt think 12/1 is value

3ndahalfof6

aidankkk wrote: »

I wouldnt back it all at 12/1.. 16/1 in Paddy Power or boyles.

I wouldnt think 12/1 is value

Do you think it will go off better than 12s ,I am stuck with the one bookie WH, I know I should change and I am in the process of doing it but it will not be done before tomorrow.

longshotvalue

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Do you think it will go off better than 12s ,I am stuck with the one bookie WH, I know I should change and I am in the process of doing it but it will not be done before tomorrow.

Hard to know, but i wouldnt think he is value at 12/1. Doesnt mean he wont win just isnt value. You should never back at the worst price in the market..

3ndahalfof6

Saying 14/1 on WAR POET, probably best to wait till the market opens up tomorrow.

rossom

3.50 York

Dutch Masterpiece 11/2

This looks a wide open contest on paper but I think Gary Moore's Dutch Masterpiece looks a horse who will be stepping into Pattern class very soon and I think he has enough ability to defy top weight in this contest with the return to 5f and soft underfoot conditions to suit. A winner of an average Maiden on Southwell's fibresand last July, Dutch Masterpiece disappointed on his 2nd start at Goodwood on handicap debut when sent off a warm order favourite in a competitive 6f contest but he wasn't suited by going down hill and was said by connections to not have enjoyed the quick going and was subsequently gelded on the back of that below par effort. However, he took his operation extremely well when scoring off that same mark of 80 in very impressive fashion as he relished the testing conditions dropped back to the minimum trip as he made all under George Baker to score very comfortably by over 3L at Windsor last October. He was turned out quickly again under a 6lb penalty in a much better race at Haydock 11 days later under Ryan Moore where he again made all under top weight in testing conditions to score by 1.5L (front two 2.5L clear of the remainder) and he definitely looked to have more in the tank as his ears were pricked as he again scored in comfortable fashion. That looks some very solid form with the 3rd home Effie B winning her next start off the same mark before finishing runner up in a Listed contest and the 4th home Tumblewind has run really well on his next 3 outings (all this season) which saw him win off a 4lb higher mark on his latest start. Furthermore, the comprehensively beaten 5th Secret Looks has been very narrowly beaten on his next two outings and reopposes on only 2lb better terms and I would be very surprised to see the form reversed.

The handicapper reacted very fairly in my opinion to raise him 4lb to his current mark of 90 given the strength of that form and I thought he made a very pleasing return to action last month at Newmarket last month in a more competitive race. Held up in midfield on good ground (which was said perhaps not to have suited him at Goodwood), Ryan Moore had Dutch Masterpiece settled on the wide outside of the group in the centre of the course and I noticed throughout the race he never reached for the whip in what very much looked like a run to blow away the cobwebs. Nevertheless, he made some decent headway into 4th in the final couple of furlongs before fading late on to finish beaten a little over 4L and I am very happy with that run which should have put him absolutely spot on for this. This represents a step down in grade as he has to carry top weight in this Class 3 handicap but he clearly carries weight well as shown when winning on his final start as a 2 year old and I think there is a strong chance and it will be interesting to see if he attempts to make all in this like he did for his last two wins. He seems to be a very pacey individual with a high cruising speed so it wouldn't surprise me if he sits just behind the pace and gets a nice tow into the race. Once again Ryan Moore takes the ride for his Dad who is in form at the moment and with ground conditions sure to suit and the step back to 5f a positive I think its going to take a very decent horse to beat Dutch Masterpiece today and I think he'll win this before going on to be a very live contender in Pattern races throughout the rest of the season.

4.05 Newmarket

Nabucco 9/2

If fully wound up on his seasonal reappearance and putting a line through his very disappointing handicap debut on his final start as a 3 year old, I think Nabucco has some very strong form in the book that makes his mark of 88 look very appealing and I think John Gosden's 4 year old could take quite a bit of beating in this. Unraced as a 2 year old, Nabucco built upon a highly promising debut in a very hot contest at Sandown last June when going down by half a length as he just could reel in the winner in soft ground. Nevertheless, that worked out to be an extremely good Maiden with the winner scoring impressively on his handicap debut off a mark of 85 on his next start before shaping if something was amiss stepped into a Listed contest. The 3rd Livery couldn't have won his only subsequent start any easier in a Maiden whilst Sir Henry Cecil's debutant Dr Yes has progressed to be a horse now rated 102. Nabucco lost little in defeat that day but quickly made amends when a ready scorer of a Maiden at Windsor by 2L in a race that has worked out really well. The debutant runner up Guarantee won his next 3 starts and is now rated 105, the 3rd Kunegunda was an impressive scorer off a mark of 78 subsequently and the 4th Cactus Valley has also scored off that mark before being very competitive in races off marks in the 80s. Judged on the form of his Maiden 2nd and his win, a mark of 88 looks potentially very lenient if putting a line through that handicap debut where he just didn't seem to fire and if making the expected progression I think he could take a lot of beating for the in form John Gosden team with Nicky Mackay taking the ride.

4.25 York

Take Two 11/1

This 4 year old has been an absolute revelation since joining Alex Hales in March of this year scoring on both his starts for his new trainer and despite an 8lb weight hike and stepped into a better race I think there is more improvement in him and I think he looks poised to run another big race. Formerly with John O'Shea, Take Two won twice in 12 starts on the flat as a 3 year old before his form tailed off towards the end of last season and he was moved by his owners to the Hales yard earlier this year. The change of scenery clearly did him the world of good as he won twice for Hales last month and the latest was a very impressive success. Ridden by today's pilot Andrea Atzeni on both occasions, Take Two was particularly impressive winning LTO as he scooted clear with 2f to go and was in no danger as he went on to score by 3L. The 2nd and 3rd home have run to about the same level on their next outings to give a solid look to the form and an 8lb rise to a career high mark of 84 seems fair given the authority of his win. Clearly thriving at the moment, this represents a tougher contest but with the soft ground conditions not looking a problem I think he can continue his upward progression and play a hand in this 10f contest.

rossom

5.00 York

Esteaming 12/1

David Barron's son of Derby winning Sir Percy should relish the step up 12f for the first day and on the back of two eye catching runs for his current trainer on ground he should really relish. Formerly with Mick Channon, Esteaming was a little frustrating as he finished runner up on 3 of his 5 starts for his former trainer but a considerable amount of improvement was felt to be made from him as he was picked up for 36,000 Guineas at Doncaster's November sale last year as he was sent to David Barron. Esteaming made his handicap debut for Barron off a mark of 74 at Beverley over 10f last month where he caught the eye as he blocked at a crucial time before making inroads in the final furlong to be beaten about 6L but it was his latest run at Pontefract at the start of the month that really caught the eye. Dropped 2lb to his current mark of 72 for his seasonal reappearance, Esteaming looked full of running at the finish as he blocked off twice at crucial stages on his last run as he met trouble under today's pilot Philp Makin as he had to settle for a 4L beaten 5th over the 1m2f trip. The reopposing Buckstay was about a length in front of him that day and is shorter in the market today and although that rival is more unexposed I'm quite happy to pluck for Esteaming at the bigger price as I think he's got a great chance of turning that form around. In addition to being unlucky the last twice, both those runs were on good to firm ground and I think the soft ground will be more to his liking today. With David Barron in good form at the moment I think Esteaming will prove very popular in the market and hopefully he can shed is Maiden tag at the 8th time of asking.

6.30 Aintree

Bradley 11/2

The handicapper looks to have given Bradley a massive, massive chance dropping him back to the mark of 133 where he was narrowly beaten by subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude just 3 starts a go and this unexposed and progressive 9 year old could prove too classy for this field as he is significantly dropped in grade to a Class 3 handicap as the talented Conor Shoemark takes a very valuable 7lb off his back. A horse that clearly had problems in his early career that saw him off, he mixed Hunter Chases and Chases under Rules for husband and wife Fergal & Jelly O'Brien last year which saw him win 3 times but he was still clearly on an upward curve towards the end of last season. He was seen running on very strongly off his current mark of 133 in an extended 3m handicap at Cheltenham last Ocotber to finish 4th when left too much to do and better that effort when getting caught very late on by subsequent Welsh National winner Monbeg Dude off the same mark over an extended 3m3f at Cheltenham in the Grade 3 Henriette Knight handicap a month later. Upped 5lb to 138 for that run he ran credibly in another Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in December when beaten 13L (would have finished a bit closer if he hadn't been hampered) in bottomless ground before he was pulled up in the Betfred Classic Chase in January where it transpired he had lost two shoes in the race for which the handicapper surprisingly dropped him 5lb for that run. He was last seen when sent off an 11/1 shot in the Scottish Grand National last month when brought down at the 2nd and if none the worse for that fall I think he has a great chance in this. Considering he has been contesting Grade 3 Handicaps recently, the huge drop back in Class to this 0-135 handicap looks to have given him a tremendous chance if acting at Aintree. With good ground apparently his preferred surface (although his most recent form is in testing ground), as long as he doesn't find the 25f trip on the sharp side he could take an awful lot of beating under 7lb claimer Conor Shoemark for an in form Fergal O'Brien team off a mark of 133.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

3.50 York

Sound Of Guns 7/2 NAP

I am a massive, massive fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly and if the rain stays away then I think her current price could look ridiculous after the race today (she'll be withdrawn if the ground doesn't suit). I have been following Sound Of Guns since her eye catching debut and it didn't take her long to get off the mark as she won a Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen (unbeaten at sprinting trip and winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park) too good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot had shown really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. Moreover, the reopposing Morawij was a further length back in 6th and is now 7lb worse off at the weights so I can't see him reversing the form.

Trainer Ed Walker reported that Sound Of Guns had grown a lot over the winter and her reappearance upped to 7f in the Nell Gwyn when finishing much better than her finishing position in 7th suggests. Held up in mid division, Sound Of Guns was very keen throughout the race but she was still travelling very well inside the final 2f in behind the leaders. However, she got a big bump that nearly knocked her over but she was still able to improve her finishing position under a tender ride from Luke Morris. Where she would have finished that day I don't know but I'd like to think she could have challenged for a place in a race that has thrown up in the 1,000 Guineas winner and 4th in Sky Lantern and Winning Express. Today's contest sees her dropped back to 5f which shouldn't cause any problems and her trainer has done so given how keen she was over 7f. Looking at her rivals, the main threats look like improving handicappers looking to step up into Pattern Class and I think Sound Of Guns will have far too much class for them. There are some light showers forecast but Ed Walker has stated that she won't run if the ground is unsuitable so there are no fears from me that I'll get stuck with a bet with unsuitable ground. William Buick is an excellent booking and clearly gets on well with this filly having partnered her to her Maiden success and 3rd in the Flying Childers and I will be very, very disappointed if she doesn't win this. I won't be at all surprised if she routs this average enough looking field and I've had a substantial wager on her at a price I think grossly misrepresents her chance of winning this.

Sound Of Guns 5/1 runs in the 3.40 Newbury today because of the rain at York yesterday and its a massive, massive shame that it came as this race is an incredibly more competitive contest. Standing in her way is current favourite Ninjago who I could not have been more impressed with on his 3 year old debut when bolting up in a Listed contest last month and his wind operation over the summer has clearly improved him considerably. He went into my notebook straight away that day as I think he looks a sprinter with a massive future and its going to take a very big performance from Sound Of Guns to beat him. However, I do feel she is a very, very talented horse herself and I am quite happy to back her each way at 5/1 as I'll be disappointed if she is out of the frame with Martin Harley taking the ride for the first time.


In the 2 year old opener at York, I think Quatuor is a very talented filly who should take a lot of beating but I couldn't have been more impressed with Majestic Alexander 11/2's win on her debut and I am sure David Evans well bred filly has a huge future. If this was on good ground, I would definitely be having a sizable bet but I am quite concerned about her ability to handle soft ground and have scaled down my bet as a result.

longshotvalue

7:05 Aintree

Vendor has been a disappointing horse this year after a very decent 4yo campaign, but he was possibly not suited by the soft ground he encountered, and did appear to be running better last time until unseating 3 out on better ground. He has looked as if the step up in trip here will suit. He is probably the most unexposed in the field and this race should really suit him. 11/1 looks decent value.


1 Point win 11/1 BetVictor

BQQ

Annies Fortune 15:15 York

Was placed in a group 3 last year.
Stepped down to a Listed race today and upped to 1m (by Montjeu, so no problem there)
Trainer jockey combo teamed up to win listed h'cap here yesterday.


Breakheart 14:35 Newbury

Campaigned in class 2 h'caps in 2010 including a close up 5th over course and distance off a mark of 91 and a neck 2nd at newmarket over the distance.
Been running on the all weather for the last year or so staying on over 1f shorter to be 2nd at wolverhampton last time out.
Back to turf off a mark of 63 and in reasonable form he could run into a place at a decent price.


Two turtle doves 17:50 Newmarket

6lbs well in and connections will want to strike before the weight rise takes effect.
This is a "hands & heels" apprentice race, which won't inconvenience him as he is a genuine horse ( has winning/placed form in apprentice races and lady amateur races)
Good draw is the cherry on top.

the groutch

the more I look at the Yorkshire Cup (2:40), more I think Royal Diamond is very overpriced

Slattsy

Royal Diamond is definately of interest in the Yorkshire Cup and at 11/1 is very over-priced.
His 2 runs this year have been in Dubai in better company than this. But this Irish St Leger winner is now back on soft ground for the first time since that win and must have a decent chance in what looking an average race where cases can be made for most.

Missed the bigger prices on Dutch Masterpiece but still available at 4/1. Again the soft ground is in his favour here and his 3 wins have been on soft or heavy. If he breaks well under Moore he could take quite a bit of catching.

I also like Orpha who was thought good enough to contest the Group 1 Moyglare stakes here on his only second start. Although well weaten in the end, she drops into Listed class for her belated seasonal return. Out of new Approach she's bound to make a better 3 yr old and its worth noting she has entries in all the top fillies races so must be going well enough at home. 5/1 is a very fair price.

Gringo180

Anybody remember who tipped up Bayan Kasirga a few weeks back, its running today and has a 7lb claimer on board, today could be the day it wins.

mohican22

Gringo180 wrote: »

Anybody remember who tipped up Bayan Kasirga a few weeks back, its running today and has a 7lb claimer on board, today could be the day it wins.

It was in the Horses to Follow thread,the lad had been told it was after improving significantly over winter and to watch out for it

JuniorB

Gringo180 wrote: »

Anybody remember who tipped up Bayan Kasirga a few weeks back, its running today and has a 7lb claimer on board, today could be the day it wins.

Sting60

Gringo180

Cheers lads ill have a few quid on it, ran a nice race on its reappearance.

Backstreet Moyes

Gringo180 wrote: »

Anybody remember who tipped up Bayan Kasirga a few weeks back, its running today and has a 7lb claimer on board, today could be the day it wins.

What time is this running?

longshotvalue

2:45 York

This race has a complete different look about it now that Cavalryman is gone, as I couldn’t see him beat here. I’m quite surprised the Royal Diamond is the price he is here and I wouldn’t think there is a lot between most of these on form. He ran a very decent race over a trip too short in the Sheema Classis this year and if he can travel as well here as he did there I think he will have a great chance here. 11/1 seems a good few points too big not the the fav has gone.

1 Point win 11/1 Various

longshotvalue

2:15 York

It’s a difficult race where I’m having difficulty making a case for anything. Spanish Duke is possibly decent value give that he should appreciate the step up in trip and is in here on a very low mark. He looked to be heading the right way on his seasonal re-appearance but was poor next time at Epson. This race should well be more suitable, and give that the favourite looks too short here, 16/1 looks a bit of value for him to get back to form of a nice racing weight.

1 Point win 16/1

Nulty

aidankkk wrote: »

2:15 York

It’s a difficult race where I’m having difficulty making a case for anything. Spanish Duke is possibly decent value give that he should appreciate the step up in trip and is in here on a very low mark. He looked to be heading the right way on his seasonal re-appearance but was poor next time at Epson. This race should well be more suitable, and give that the favourite looks too short here, 16/1 looks a bit of value for him to get back to form of a nice racing weight.

1 Point win 16/1

He always looked like he wanted a step up but always then looked like he didn't get home. This is a step up on soft ground. Horse has always looked like one to steer clear of. Brian Ellison doesn't get horses that can't win though.

Meritocracy Wins

Beldale Memory 1.45 York

ShaneU

When the favourite drifts from 11/4 to 11/2 you know there's big money on another horse

Vanolder

Meritocracy Wins wrote: »

Beldale Memory 1.45 York

You couln't have nipped in a few minutes/hours earlier?? :mad:

Meritocracy Wins

Vanolder wrote: »

You couln't have nipped in a few minutes/hours earlier?? :mad:

SorrY.

The Lark for 2 places at 4/6 with PP. 2.0. Newbury

Vanolder

Meritocracy Wins wrote: »

Sorry

You can make up for it in the next :P

Gringo180

Nuts102 wrote: »

What time is this running?

Its going in the 2.55 @ Newmarket mate

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

He always looked like he wanted a step up but always then looked like he didn't get home. This is a step up on soft ground. Horse has always looked like one to steer clear of. Brian Ellison doesn't get horses that can't win though.

almost a process of elimination, i didnt like anything else..:o

Meritocracy Wins

Dutch Courage 2.25 at Newmarket. The extra furlong should suit.


Second

realgolfgeek

Pavlosk in the 3.15 I like the look of, good price. 10/3

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

Royal Diamond is definately of interest in the Yorkshire Cup and at 11/1 is very over-priced.
His 2 runs this year have been in Dubai in better company than this. But this Irish St Leger winner is now back on soft ground for the first time since that win and must have a decent chance in what looking an average race where cases can be made for most.

Missed the bigger prices on Dutch Masterpiece but still available at 4/1. Again the soft ground is in his favour here and his 3 wins have been on soft or heavy. If he breaks well under Moore he could take quite a bit of catching.

I also like Orpha who was thought good enough to contest the Group 1 Moyglare stakes here on his only second start. Although well weaten in the end, she drops into Listed class for her belated seasonal return. Out of new Approach she's bound to make a better 3 yr old and its worth noting she has entries in all the top fillies races so must be going well enough at home. 5/1 is a very fair price.

I dont want to talk about it :mad:

Oscars Well.

Willie Mullins' comments on todays runners are here for this that are interested. Looks like Sweet My Lord is his best chance.

sonnky

Thanks for Esteaming rossom you hero.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

5.00 York

Esteaming 12/1

David Barron's son of Derby winning Sir Percy should relish the step up 12f for the first day and on the back of two eye catching runs for his current trainer on ground he should really relish. Formerly with Mick Channon, Esteaming was a little frustrating as he finished runner up on 3 of his 5 starts for his former trainer but a considerable amount of improvement was felt to be made from him as he was picked up for 36,000 Guineas at Doncaster's November sale last year as he was sent to David Barron. Esteaming made his handicap debut for Barron off a mark of 74 at Beverley over 10f last month where he caught the eye as he blocked at a crucial time before making inroads in the final furlong to be beaten about 6L but it was his latest run at Pontefract at the start of the month that really caught the eye. Dropped 2lb to his current mark of 72 for his seasonal reappearance, Esteaming looked full of running at the finish as he blocked off twice at crucial stages on his last run as he met trouble under today's pilot Philp Makin as he had to settle for a 4L beaten 5th over the 1m2f trip. The reopposing Buckstay was about a length in front of him that day and is shorter in the market today and although that rival is more unexposed I'm quite happy to pluck for Esteaming at the bigger price as I think he's got a great chance of turning that form around. In addition to being unlucky the last twice, both those runs were on good to firm ground and I think the soft ground will be more to his liking today. With David Barron in good form at the moment I think Esteaming will prove very popular in the market and hopefully he can shed is Maiden tag at the 8th time of asking.

That was pretty impressive. Came there travelling unbelievably well and the victory would have been more emphatic had something lasted out in front a bit longer. Makes up for a couple of disappointments so far today.

rossom

Cheers Sonnky. Glad you were on.

Johner

Lovely winner rossom, lets hope Bradley can do the business as well.

rossom

Bradley was ****e! Isn't an Aintree horse. Jumped right too much and needs further.

rossom

7.25 Hamilton

Beaumont's Party 9/1

I cannot believe he has drifted to 9/1 and I can't leave him unbacked at what looks an absolutely massive price. Since joining Brian Ellison, he has been in absolutely tremendous form winning very easily on his first two starts for connections (latterly beating a couple of subsequent winners in Tres Coronas and Duke Of Clarence) which saw him rise 16lb to his current mark of 94. He ran another fine race in defeat off this mark 8 days ago at Chester when things didn't really go right for him but he still was running on the finish to be beaten only 2 lengths. The form of that race has taken a major boost today at York with Sir John Hawkwood winning under a 6lb penalty and I definitely feel he has enough in the locker to be competitive off this mark. He shouldn't have any issue with the ground and Dale Swift makes his way from York to Hamilton for this one ride which looks very telling. In belting form at the moment, he doesn't look to have hit the ceiling with regards to his mark yet and 9/1 looks a great each way price in my opinion.

hawkhead

Native Gallery in the next at Aintree. Twice a winner over course & distance including this race last year. Ran a very encouraging race on his comeback at this track travelling really well for a long way until his long absence took its toll. Built on that run when coming third in a handicap at the Punchestown festival beaten 5 lengths to W Mullins beast.

Looks to have been primed for this race again

Overthelast

Went with Voodoo Prince in that race. Liked the manner of his win last time out.

Goldcupfav

Im on Allied Powers at Hamilton. My only bet of the day.

Johner

That is a fierce impressive rise from Party Rock. Great performance.

rossom

8.00 Hamilton

Bogsnog 9/1

The ground is a little bit of an unknown buy Kristin Stubbs's extremely consistent and progressive looking 3 year old looks vastly overpriced to me. A horse who I actually tipped up at 80/1 when runner up on his 2nd start, Bogsnog hasn't been out of the first 2 in his 6 subsequent outings winning the last twice and although a lot of his Maiden form doesn't read well I was really impressed with his handicap debut success on his first start for Kristin Stubbs since taking over for her mother. As a 2 year old, tactics were for him to try and make all and he was headed late on a number of occasions but a more restrained ride saw him follow up his Maiden success on his final start as a 2 year old when scoring off a mark of 75 last month. Under the excellent Graham Lee who knows this horse well and rides tonight, Bogsnog was dropped in behind the pace and showed a tremendous attitude under top weight to squeeze through a very narrow gap to get up late on to score by a neck. His attitude and determination were very admirable and he was in command as he hit the front. That form is a little mixed with a few disappointments but the 3rd home scored impressively on his only start since off a 4lb higher mark and I think Bogsnog's 4lb rise to a mark of 79 looks fair. That race won't be anywhere near as competitive as what he faces tonight in a race where he again has to shoulder top weight but now he has found the winning thread I expect him to keep on progressing and 9/1 looks a big price to me.

ShaneU

Fancy gates of rome in this race at kilbeggan

rossom

Winner got first run on Beaumont's Party and looks smart. No harm each way at 9s though.

Gringo180

rossom wrote: »

Winner got first run on Beaumont's Party and looks smart. No harm each way at 9s though.

Yeah that Mijhaar is definitely group class he looks a different horse after been gelded. By the way some good tipping today mate, keep them coming.