Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

awec

I took Bryson at 18/1 so delighted to see him start well!

Miley Byrne

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122258448#Comment_122258448

Nice of you to inform us when he is T4, 2 shots back and has 25% of the tournament under his belt🙄

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122258606#Comment_122258606

I'll let you know the moment I make the bet next time so. 👍️

Miley Byrne

Well if you must inform us then before the start would be nice. I wouldn't post up that I had a team backed when they were 1-0 up after 20 minutes. Aftertiming is just a pain in the hole

awec

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122258719#Comment_122258719

It'd be aftertiming if I posted on Sunday night after Bryson had won it that I backed him, it's not aftertiming to post it now.

On top of this, I would have thought the 18/1 odds made it really obvious that I backed him before the event even started. 🙄

I fancy Liam Nolan, Calum Scott and Jack Bigham , as the players to watch in the British Amateur Championship which gets underway on Monday in Ballyliffin Donegal. Betting should be available in this championship with boylesports by tomorrow.

Caustic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122252958#Comment_122252958

You seem to be totally misunderstanding stats here tbh, if a good ball striker gets hot for 1 round they arent going to be missing that many greens and putting is so highly variable its hardly worth talking about for 1 round

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260745#Comment_122260745

On normal courses yes but not at Pinehurst. Around the green is critical.

I have the stats from yesterday and the two categories nearly all the leaders were top of were tee to green and around the green.

As I said if you have 55% greens in regulation you are doing really on this course. Here's the stats

Caustic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260954#Comment_122260954

You seem to have misunderstood what im saying tbh, but if you are backing one round of tournament golf as a first round leader bet is worrying about around the green and putting no matter the course isnt the way, arg is a highly variable stat with with so many factors (lies, how far ff hte green, hole locations etc etc.) predicting who will do it is impossible and bad arg players get hot as do bad putters

So yes it was a factor but trying to predict it for one round bets is silly, as you want your players when you bet on them to be performing above average ie a great iron player hitting lots of greens.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122260999#Comment_122260999

I'm not misunderstanding anything. I said in advance of the round that Rai wasn't good enough around the green or putting. He wasn't good enough around the green or putting.

How you turn that into me not understanding stats, well it's weird.

Every week I rank golfers based on who I think has the best chance. I them look at the stats and if they favour my picks I bet on them.

Caustic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261459#Comment_122261459

Again you seemed to have missed the point, for one round of golf you are putting far too much weight on putting and arg. Also his putting yesterday was good enough so not right there. which shows bad putters can putt well. Also Rai gains strokes arg so he isnt even that bad and its certainly in the realm of possibility for him to get hot enough to win a frl bet.

To go even further someone with bad arg numbers might be too aggressive going to pins and leave themselves short sided too much which would make there short game look worse but also its the exact kind of golfer you would want to take for a bet like frl.

And if you are telling me you think Rai is bad around the green because of what you have seen of him on tele then that is an extremely small sample size i watch a lot of golf and he doesnt get shown enough to make that call. so i assume you are basing it off stats

ARG might be the noisiest stat there is, given that variance in all the shot types you can hit, the different trouble arg (water, sand, run offs) green speeds grass types etc etc

Im merely trying to explain to you that putting and arg is highly variable, it easiest to do it with stats, i find it wierd you bet golf talk about stats then when stats prove you wrong you dont like them 😂

Bathai is gaining the most strokes ARG so far but is one of the worst in the field this year, Aberg is winning this tournament and losing strokes aroun the green.

To end you dont really understand what you are on about enough to be giving out advice if you don't understand the varience involved in golf especially when it comes to putting and arg and also that a frl bet is a vastly different bet to one thats on 4 rounds of golf

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261553#Comment_122261553

I have stats for the full season, for six,three, two and one month and the previous tournament. I'm not short on information.

And yes a freak occurrence can happen but it doesn't mean he's a good bet, it's a bad bet.

Variability isn't that prevalent. Yes a guy can have a good day and bad day but horses for courses and form are great factors to increase your chances of finding a winner. I don't put up many tips here outside of majors but go over my major record on here and you'll see I'm up a lot. I put up Clark for the US Open and Harman for the British Open last year and Scheffler for the Masters this year. All were players I fancied and all were players that were backed up by stats. I pick a squad first and then take the best on stats from that list.

I had Cantlay, Finau and Morikawa for frl.

Caustic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261601#Comment_122261601

Your reasoning for it being a bad bet was mostly nonsense, i mean jesus when you say variability isnt prevalent you are showing how little you know, having a few winners doesnt mean you understand what you are talking about as you clearly don't, but ill leave it there now.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122261852#Comment_122261852

Math is my thing and I also happen to love and watch golf every week. When you say variability is common you are showing how little you know. Yes there are unexpected winners but look at the top tens and you will see many names with the stats that say they'll contend.

Rai was a bad bet, even if he won it was a bad bet. There was no reasonable thought for the bet. You bet that way and you'll lose lots of money. I'm in profit for four consecutive years now. It's not a huge profit except for last year but I take pride in it.

golf tips this week all ew

Travelers Championship

Tommy fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg

KLM open Frederic Lacroix and Antoine Rozner. Gary Hurley top 20.

KPMG Womens PGA championship

Hae Ran Ryu

Compliance Solutions Championship

Julian Suri and Ricky Castillo

Blot Open de Bretagne

Joshua Grenville Wood and Julien Sale

Czech Ladies Open

Hannah Burke and Alice Hewson

LIV Nashville

Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey

DICKS Sporting Goods Open

Paul Stankowski

eagle eye

Travelers I'm going Scheffler win only. Without him Henley and Bezuidenhout. I like Matsuyama for a top five finish.

benny79

Who are people backing in The Open?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122390339#Comment_122390339

I'm on McKibbin top Irish, Lowry top GB & I, and Rory & Hatton top 5 finish

Miley Byrne

Aberg and Lowry outright

tayto lover

Cantalay @ 33/1

S.J. Im @ 40/1

Both e/w and 12 places with PP.

Le Bruise

MacIntyre @ 22/1

Lowry @ 25/1

Rai @ 40/1

Straka @ 66/1

All E/W…only a couple of quid on each. Backed MacIntyre in the Scottish open last week…was so close to cashing out midway through the round but delighted I held firm!!

eagle eye

I think Scottie will do it but I can't back him given he hasn't been great in the Open to this point.

If you asked me to name two I'd say Morikawa and Cantlay. I've more backed that that but they're the two I like the best.

RichT

I've gone for Hatton, Lowry and Cantlay all each way.

Deep Thought

Any chance they would stop it now?🫣

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401168#Comment_122401168

Wouldn't be as big a coup as yours but I snuck a fiver on Brown @ 28/1 when he was going through a bit of a trough today…

thecretinhop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122401168#Comment_122401168

I had same but I cashed out lowry 140

Put Billy h on sat 28 1 70 back a very satisfying weekend bare Lowry not winning

eagle eye

I just did my pre-tournament bets and got places on Lowry and Im for a massive profit of €1.57.

Loafing Oaf

On a few longshots for the Open:

Hall outright

McKibbin top GB &I

Fleetwood/Hatton/Rose/Lowry all top 20

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123645711#Comment_123645711

Also Fox for top ROTW but probably should've left that unmentioned…

Loafing Oaf

Some interest in the Ryder, focused on wildcards:

Top scorer: Rahm, Burns

Top wildcard: Cantlay, Young, Hovland

Request-a-bets: Rory McIlroy Top GB&Ire Points Scorer (inc ties) & Collin Morikawa Top USA Wildcard Points Scorer

Scottie Scheffler & Tommy Fleetwood to Score 4+ Points Each