Long Shot Saturday

longshotvalue

Waits Patiently for bookies to make mistake for tomorrow


6 point Bet coming up if the price is right

longshotvalue

Any chance a MOD can change the title to Long Shot Saturday:o

UrbanSea

Didn't know what you were on about aidan. Baby Mix catches the eye at Haydock if the price is right

Goldcupfav

Lilys Angel a max bet for me in the 4.00 at Lingfield. 10/3 with powers now just waiting to see if anyone else goes bigger.
Attaglance another max bet in the 4.40 at Haydock. He's rated 23lbs lower over fences then hurdles. Has had 3 spins over fences in conditions that did not suit. (softer ground,small field) Went big on this horse at Cheltenham in the handicap on the Tuesday but the horse didnt run. Really think this horse is going to run a massive race tomorrow. Hopefully can get a decent price.

longshotvalue

3:30 Haydock
I’ve been waiting a long time for Barizan to get his ideal conditions and it’s finally here. He was poor over the last year or 2 but came back to life lately on unsuitable ground with a good win and an equally good 4th in the Imperial Cup. The trainer says he has sorted out his issues and if that is the case he has a huge amount in his favour here. He is on a great mark, has absolutely top class form on good or better ground, only being unplaced once, and that was a very good 6th at the Festival of 12lbs higher. His form reads 13111223611 on his favoured ground. He didn’t get in to anything at the festival of this mark and I’m hoping he’s been waiting for an opportunity. The 20/1 with Bet Victor looks exceptional value, and although I’m tempted to wait and see if anyone will beat that, it’s a great price, & I’ll be going in again if the price is better anywhere else. It think there is a significant chance that it’ll be a case of Barizan never getting caught tomorrow with his light weight and fast ground.


3pts EW 20/1 VCBET

longshotvalue

3:50 Ascot

IT won’t be a surprise to anyone that has seen my previous selections that I’m going to side with Excellent Guest here tomorrow. He has an excellent course record and has generally performed well in these types of races. He has been knocked back to what looks a very reasonable mark here of 93, for a poor run at the end of last season, and considering his 2nd here in the Royal Hunt Cup last year of 1 lb higher he should be able to get competitive here of that mark. He has run well in the past first time out and generally goes better on decent ground. 25/1 5 places with a few bookies looks very decent and worth a bet given his level of consistency in these races.


1 Point EW 25/1 5 Places 365/Paddy/Sky

longshotvalue

2:05 Ascot

I can’t not have a bet on Australia Day here tomorrow. He absolutely scooted up over fences a week ago on fast ground and on the best of his flat form he is well in here. It’s a bity there are no fences to jump but he obviously is in great form and I’ll have to have a bit of the 8/1 available. He could well be hard to catch around here in his favoured conditions

2 Points win 8/1 generally

Sir des champs

aidankkk wrote: »

3:30 Haydock
I’ve been waiting a long time for Barizan to get his ideal conditions and it’s finally here. He was poor over the last year or 2 but came back to life lately on unsuitable ground with a good win and an equally good 4th in the Imperial Cup. The trainer says he has sorted out his issues and if that is the case he has a huge amount in his favour here. He is on a great mark, has absolutely top class form on good or better ground, only being unplaced once, and that was a very good 6th at the Festival of 12lbs higher. His form reads 13111223611 on his favoured ground. He didn’t get in to anything at the festival of this mark and I’m hoping he’s been waiting for an opportunity. The 20/1 with Bet Victor looks exceptional value, and although I’m tempted to wait and see if anyone will beat that, it’s a great price, & I’ll be going in again if the price is better anywhere else. It think there is a significant chance that it’ll be a case of Barizan never getting caught tomorrow with his light weight and fast ground.


3pts EW 20/1 VCBET

Smashed into 10s already most firms, is strongly fancied by the trainer has had a recent wind operation and afterall he withdrew original top weight court minstrel from the race so barizan would get a run is a tip in itself.

longshotvalue

Sir des champs wrote: »

Smashed into 10s already most firms, is strongly fancied by the trainer has had a recent wind operation and afterall he withdrew original top weight court minstrel from the race so barizan would get a run is a tip in itself.

Thats mainly because of the Pricewise jinx, flipping copycat ..

Glad i got my bet on tough..

Sir des champs

aidankkk wrote: »

Thats mainly because of the Pricewise jinx, flipping copycat ..

Glad i got my bet on tough..

Pricewise the scumbag ,was wondering how odds collapsed so quickly,a repeat of his trail blazing triumph run should do the trick tomorrow be no catching him under that weight,best of luck.

TheMilkyPirate

Educate back out tomorrow, I know you fancied him big time LTO rossom what do ya think tomorrow?

rossom

Terry Norman reported Educate came back with a clean bill of health the last day and they have absolutely no clue why he ran so poorly. I've no clue either. If you put a line through his last run, I think he wins this comfortably but 3s is a little shorter than I'd be willing to take. I'll see how the market comes up but I'd be quite happy to let him win without my money on at this stage.

rossom

The machine that is Faugheen (according to SRFC) makes his highly anticipated Rules debut tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what price he is and how he gets on.

Overthelast

Sir des champs wrote: »

Pricewise the scumbag ,was wondering how odds collapsed so quickly,a repeat of his trail blazing triumph run should do the trick tomorrow be no catching him under that weight,best of luck.

He's still a great ew price Sir. Worth backing.

Johner

I was at Punchestown the day Barizan one. Backed Carlito Brigante. :rolleyes:

longshotvalue

Haydock 4:40

I’m not one for generally backing favourites in these handicaps, but I thought Attaglance would be shorter here. He is very well in on his chase mark after a few poor enough novice chase runs. He seems to prefer good ground judging by his very good end of the season last year, with good wins at both Cheltenham and Aintree. The Aintree race was won of a mark of 144, which does make his chase mark of 133 very interesting. We’re taking it on trust that hell improve now handicapping but I’m prepared to take that chance at the best price of 7/1


2 Points win 7/1 Ladbrokes and others

rossom

Ger Lyons Racing
Thinking of relocating to the UK, running more across there at the moment than here for various reasons. Ok let's do a Pros & Cons list.

Very interesting if true. I think he'd do extremely well if he moved over.

Colonel Sanders

I've backed Attaglance too at 7/1

I backed him (NRNB thankfully) for the novices handicap at Cheltenham but didn't run, by all accounts because of the ground. Better ground today & runs today off a mark 20lbs+ lower than his highest hurdle mark. Ran very well for a long time in the 3m hurdle at Aintree (most of his form is around the 2m 4 trip). It's a new season so winning today won't lose him his novice status.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I've backed Attaglance too at 7/1

I backed him (NRNB thankfully) for the novices handicap at Cheltenham but didn't run, by all accounts because of the ground. Better ground today & runs today off a mark 20lbs+ lower than his highest hurdle mark. Ran very well for a long time in the 3m hurdle at Aintree (most of his form is around the 2m 4 trip). It's a new season so winning today won't lose him his novice status.

Just topped my bet up after writing that!

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:25

Rocket Rob, ran an eye-catching race last time at Sandown when coming from last to snatch 2nd behind Tagula Night. That run looks to confirm that a step up to 6 furlongs will be an advantage and he looks overpriced here at 20/1. He has been competitive of higher marks in the past and has been reasonably consistent. The draw at the lower end is probably fine and he’s worth a small EW bet.


1 Point EW 20/1 BetVictor / Sporting Bet/Betfair

UrbanSea

rossom wrote: »

Ger Lyons Racing
Thinking of relocating to the UK, running more across there at the moment than here for various reasons. Ok let's do a Pros & Cons list.

Very interesting if true. I think he'd do extremely well if he moved over.

Ferdy Murphy is moving to France


Lads if a horse wins a novice race today in England or Ireland they're still a novice right up until next April is that right

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ferdy Murphy is moving to France

Just saw it on Irish Racing, strange move at this stage of his career

UrbanSea wrote: »

Lads if a horse wins a novice race today in England or Ireland they're still a novice right up until next April is that right

As long as you're a novice on the 1st day of the season you're a novice for the entire season, no?

UrbanSea

That you are Colonel, when did the Irish season end was it the last day of Punchestown

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

when did the Irish season end was it the last day of Punchestown

I think so but don't quote me 100%

UrbanSea

Two small bets. Daring Article in the 3 mile handicap chase at Punchestown. Not as good over fences as hurdles as his 12lb lower handicap mark suggests, but he has been running on terrible ground and the step up in trip should suit well (was second in a decent handicap hurdle over 3 miles off a stone higher). 18/1


Cross Kennon in the first at Haydock, talented horse on his day who should be competitive off 140, was beaten a neck off this mark a few runs back. Down a stone since 16 months ago, did finish 5 lengths behind Big Bucks in a World Hurdle a few years back. Competitve race but 25/1 is nice

carmanard

Today's plays for me are: Whisky Yankee in the opener at Haydock (gets 4lbs off Darley Sun & a stone off battle group, surely has to be in the first 3 if he gets the trip, won a bumper on good ground so should be ok there today), shenas dream in the 3.15 at ascot (unbeaten on a decent surface which she gets today), Jamesie in the 3.50 at ascot (has a race like this in him & I'd be sick if he won today without me backing him) and I reckon I'll get onboard the Barizan express at haydock too.... May chance a small e/w punt on Whippy Cream in the oaks trial at lingfield just in case the favourite flops, she's a half sister to Souviens Toi who ran well in the fillies listed race at goodwood last week, on her only start she finished 4th beaten only 3 lengths by Banoffee who won the Cheshire oaks the other day...

cardwizzard

Modern Romance for me @Ascot 3.15. 8/1 and while the fav beat him last time at Donnie, that was his first run in a while and might of needed it. Ran well and cruising until final furlong or so and was found out. Fav @ 6/4 and probably should be but way to slim for me.

Bubbly Bellini @ 66/1 I like in the 3.50. E/W.

droidman123

I think barizan has a great chance today off a nice weight and the going will be perfect. 12/1 will do nicely for me.

UrbanSea

Ladbrooks really out do themselves sometimes with prices. Went to back Daring Article but he was only 6/1. Needless to say I took the 16s in Bruce

clubberlang12

Ascot 2,05

Have been following Robin Hood since leaving Coolmore and joining Mitchell's yard. Predominantly used a pace maker by O'Brien in some of the biggest races around i do feel Mitchell is lining him up for a big handicap race win. Don;t think today is the day but i can't let him pass by stepped up in trip and in off bottom weight and a meagre rating of 83. His form prior to being used as a pace maker for O'Brien is well above average with finishing not too far off the likes of one time Derby hopeful Casamento and Roderic O'Connor and Pathfork. Didn;t finish far behind Windsor Palace, SNA and Sharestan in the Mooresbridge despite being used a the pace maker in it. If they send him out to the front from the start then today could be the day but i think they are waiting for a bigger pot. Regardless i will not be letting the 33/1 pass me by today after just missing out on the places at 50/1 a couple of weeks back. Good luck.

BQQ

Taken a punt on the following:

Hollow Tree 13:50 Haydock
Absolutelyfantasic 15:45 Punchestown
Bruff 16:55 Punchestown
Prince of Passion 20:45 Thirsk

MoscowFlyer

Light Burst 7/1 - 5.10 Lingfield

Been waiting for the turf return!

kksaints

Small bet on Baby Mix in the 3 30 at Haydock. Hope he returns to his best form.

droidman123

Highland colori great e/w bet in the Victoria cup @14/1. P.power paying first five home.

droidman123

UrbanSea wrote: »

Ladbrooks really out do themselves sometimes with prices. Went to back Daring Article but he was only 6/1. Needless to say I took the 16s in Bruce

Jeez that's some difference in price!

faoile@n

rossom wrote: »

Terry Norman reported Educate came back with a clean bill of health the last day and they have absolutely no clue why he ran so poorly. I've no clue either. If you put a line through his last run, I think he wins this comfortably but 3s is a little shorter than I'd be willing to take. I'll see how the market comes up but I'd be quite happy to let him win without my money on at this stage.

Terry Norman @tjnnorman 3h

Educate was eventually found to be wrong after Newbury. Small field is not ideal but he will have to win to have any chance in Hunt Cup

Looks like they found something after his last poor run.

Colonel Sanders

16 runners in the Attaglance race this morning

Shock, horror to my surprise there's a non runner

droidman123

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

16 runners in the Attaglance race this morning

Shock, horror to my surprise there's a non runner

it amazes me the amount of times that happens:mad:

fangee

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

16 runners in the Attaglance race this morning

Shock, horror to my surprise there's a non runner

I would normally recommend a bookie that still pays out 4 places when this happens but I can't anymore after he refused me €100 EW at 11/4 last time I called him.

TheMilkyPirate

Ultrasonic is the bet of the day for me, I should have took the 11/4 last night but I'm an idiot so only got 2s this morning.

TheMilkyPirate

Very impressive by Secret gesture

byronbay2

Any sign of SRFC today? Does Mullins fancy Felix Yonger today after his long lay-off, I wonder? Evens is best price now after the withdrawals but I reckon he could pick these up and carry them if at his best - beaten only by Simonsig at Cheltenham last year with 11L back to the third.

TheMilkyPirate

Barizan into 8s

DaithiMa

Just a horse to watch today. Might be worth a small e/w investment-Loughnagall 4.55 Punchestown. The yard think a lot of him, is ultra consistent and has not been out of the frame in its last five runs. Has run well fresh before, but might need the blowout tonight. He is definitely one to keep an eye on over the summer though. Needs 3m minimum in my opinion and half decent ground. Rob Jones usually rides him, and i'm surprised not to see him on tonight-great value for his claim. Power a decent replacement though.

droidman123

get in there!!!!!! 12/1

TheMilkyPirate

Get the **** in!!!

droidman123

droidman123 wrote: »

I think barizan has a great chance today off a nice weight and the going will be perfect. 12/1 will do nicely for me.

Slattsy

Only got sp, what was it? 12s ??

byronbay2

aidankkk wrote: »

3:30 Haydock
I’ve been waiting a long time for Barizan to get his ideal conditions and it’s finally here. He was poor over the last year or 2 but came back to life lately on unsuitable ground with a good win and an equally good 4th in the Imperial Cup. The trainer says he has sorted out his issues and if that is the case he has a huge amount in his favour here. He is on a great mark, has absolutely top class form on good or better ground, only being unplaced once, and that was a very good 6th at the Festival of 12lbs higher. His form reads 13111223611 on his favoured ground. He didn’t get in to anything at the festival of this mark and I’m hoping he’s been waiting for an opportunity. The 20/1 with Bet Victor looks exceptional value, and although I’m tempted to wait and see if anyone will beat that, it’s a great price, & I’ll be going in again if the price is better anywhere else. It think there is a significant chance that it’ll be a case of Barizan never getting caught tomorrow with his light weight and fast ground.


3pts EW 20/1 VCBET

Fair dues Aidan - good analysis and a good tip!

rossom

Stunning Aidan. Lumped on after reading your write up. Hope you had your knackers on it and are now looking at multiple penises!

Nulty

sick i missed your post earlier Aidan. I read about Evan Williams taking outthe top weight the other day cause he wanted to race Barizan. Still got on though at 8s :P