Chester Meeting - Day One - Wed 8th May

MoscowFlyer

I've always liked this meeting and am looking forward to the 3 days racing this week once again.

Countrywide Flame attempts to win the Chester Cup tomorrow which should be a very intriguing contest. £74k for the winner is a nice prize to be lifting.

the groutch

couldn't back CF on good to firm, will have few quid e/w on Pipe's Investissment.
a close 3rd in the Ebor in '11 when last seen on the flat, has the plum draw in stall 1, and has Twistin Davis taking 5lb off.

UrbanSea

Will take a chance on Theology each way at 25/1 in the Chester Cup. Think it will prove to be a strong Newbury maiden Bannoffee won and looks an each way chance at 10/1 stepped up in trip, though ground may be a tad quick

ste2010

Might be stupid question I don't really follow the flat ... So prepare for some more if I stick with it over the next few months.

How is countrywide flame carrying a lighter weight than the rest given he's a higher rating?

I would have thought CWF would relish firm ground

ft9

I've backed Countrywide Flame ew at 4/1. His mark on the flat could look ridiculous tomorrow. Nice draw too in number 4.

ft9

ste2010 wrote: »

Might be stupid question I don't really follow the flat ... So prepare for some more if I stick with it over the next few months.

How is countrywide flame carrying a lighter weight than the rest given he's a higher rating?

I would have thought CWF would relish firm ground

He's not a higher rating. He's 92. National Hunt ratings have no bearing.

ste2010

ft9 wrote: »

He's not a higher rating. He's 92. National Hunt ratings have no bearing.

Thanks I'm looking at the RPR apologies.

the groutch

also going for Smuggler's Gold & M'selle in the opener.
with this being the biggest field for this race in years, the draw is even more crucial.

Slattsy

Buckland for me in the Chester Cup.

carpothepunk

He could make a mockery of his mark alright, but at the price, plenty value elsewhere. Olympiad is very interesting. O Briens yoke is well drawn as well.

carpothepunk

And GYTO have just napped CWF, so lay of the century, obviously.

Gringo180

Fancy Michael Bells filly in the Cheshire Oaks, step up in trip should suit and I am pretty sure she is closely related and in the same ownership to the top class filly that was Sariska.

SRFC

My nap tomorrow is any thing drawn wide to be a non runner :pac:

Slattsy

Gringo180 wrote: »

Fancy Michael Bells filly in the Cheshire Oaks, step up in trip should suit and I am pretty sure she is closely related and in the same ownership to the top class filly that was Sariska.

Non runner.

Fancy one of the Irish raiders in this.

rossom

I'd be of the opinion that you have to take Countrywide Flame on tomorrow in what looks a very competitive field. Granted, he's clearly come on quite a bit as a hurdler this year but he's had a pretty tough campaign over jumps and was disappointing when last seen in April. Although I think he's on a winnable mark, he was beaten in the Cesarewitch on his last start and has gone up 4lb and I don't think he's as thrown in as some people think. If he wins this comfortably will I be surprised? Absolutely not but in a race this competitive and in a field this size I think 7/2 is much too short and he'll probably go off at 3s or shorter. Of the alternatives, Address Unknown is very interesting on stable debut for Richard Fahey and it wouldn't surprise me if he went well at 16/1 but I can't get away from having a small bet on Buckland 14/1. Hans Adielsson's 5 year old has been an absolute revelation since stepped up in trip and proved he was just as good on turf with a career best when finishing 4th in the Sagara Stakes last week. The front 3 were all rated 104 or higher and Buckland is effectively 10lb well in off a mark of 94 with his mark set to rise from that effort. Moreover, he's 2lb below the mark he was beaten a short head off on the AW last month over 2 miles and although he's not guaranteed to stay the trip I think there is a strong chance he'll get it. William Buick is an eye catching booking and for a horse who is effectively 10lb well in, massively on the upgrade and in great form I can't pass up the 14/1 on offer.

rossom

1.45 Chester

Blithe Spirit 9/1

After this filly won on her 2nd outing, trainer Eric Alston said it was at least 5 years since his last juvenile winner and I certainly feel that shows that this is a well above average horse. After an educational introduction at Wolverhampton at the start of April, Blithe Spirit clearly came on a lot for that experience when making all to win in good style at Ripon a couple of weeks later. From a high enough draw in stall 7, Blithe Spirit absolutely pinged out of the gates and showed some excellent early speed to move across to the near side rail and grab the overall lead. From there, she never saw a rival and she powered to a convincing 2.5L success. She didn't look anywhere near the finished product that day and seemed quite raw but her natural ability saw her win and I think she'll have improved greatly for that run. The 4th home has come out and won since to solidify the form and it was an effort that I thought was full of promise. This looks a very competitive contest but Eric Alston always targets his runners at the Chester Festival which he always does very well at and although he certainly isn't renowned with his 2 year olds I think its very interesting that he sends this filly here. Perhaps even more telling is that this filly's Dam Damalis, who was trained by Alston, absolutely loved Chester where she won 5 times including 4 times at this meeting. Blithe Spirit's breeding suggests that she could excel at this very sharp track which could be crucial on this unique course. Although she could have been drawn a lot better than stall 9, if she pings the start like she did at Ripon then I am confident enough she has enough pace to get to the front. If she can get a lead without using too much energy early on, I think she could take quite a bit of pegging back and if she can last home then I think she can definitely land this contest at a nice price.

2.25 Southwell

Amenable 8/1

It would not surprise me in the slightest if there was a flood of money around for this one tomorrow and this could very much be another plot from trainer Violet Jordan. Having joined current connections from David Nicholls back in December, Amenable has had 9 starts where he has been very poor in a mixture of Claimers, a Seller and handicaps but resultantly this 6 year old's mark has plummeted from a mark of 77 to a career low mark of 52 and he is ridiculously well handicapped on old form. You don't have to go an awful long way back for Amenable's last win which came at Hamilton off a mark of 78 last August for his former trainer but his first start on the Fibresand surface at Southwell is something I've been waiting to see happen as he clearly goes very well here. From 3 starts at the track, all over this C+D, Amenable has registered 2 wins including off a mark of 77 back in 2010 and he clearly goes extremely well here and this could be a right old plot. Although form figures are not at all desirable, the yard landed a massive punt with Brown Pete back in December who had a similar profile and Amenable has had 49 days since his last run which will hopefully have seen connections getting him spot on for this. Owned by Steve Arnold's rakebackmypoker.com (same ownership as Brown Pete), if the money is down then I'd be extremely confident of collecting. This 0-55 handicap is about as low a grade event as your likely to find at Southwell and I'd be pretty surprised if Amenable isn't trying. There is a negative though as Cathy Gannon takes the ride and although I'm a big fan of hers her 0-17 record for the stable is definitely disconcerting. Moreover, job jockey for Brown Pete William Carson is at the track for the first two races but doesn't stick around for this and I'd be supremely confident if he was on board. However, Carson hasn't ridden for Jordan since March and perhaps they've had a falling out? Who knows, but Cathy is also on the favourite for Jordan in the opener and I'm more than confident of her ability in the saddle. From a decent draw in stall 4, I'd expect Amenable to bounce out and try to make all and if he does so then I'd be very confident. If this is the plot it looks to be as opposed to the horse regressing (which I very much doubt), Amenable is handicapped to piss all over the rest of this field in what looks an extremely average contest on a surface where he goes really well. If the handbrake is off and money is down, I think there is an incredibly strong chance that you'll be collecting from the bookies.

3.15 Chester

Foxy Music 16/1

Stall 10 is far from ideal for this front running gelding but he has clearly been aimed specifically at this race having finished runner up in this contest off a 9lb higher last year and I strongly believe that an absolutely huge run is on the cards. Now off a mark of 81, Foxy Music is on his lowest mark for a few years and this 9 year old makes his seasonal reappearance at a track where he goes very well. Looking at last years contest, Foxy Music broke extremely well from stall 7 to get to front with not too much trouble as he went customarily blitzed from the front. Despite hanging right throughout the contest, Foxy Music led the field until deep inside the final furlong before being headed by Confessional as he went down by 0.75L. It was an excellent effort off a mark of 90 for this double C+D winner and if replicating that effort then I think he'll come out victorious. He ran a couple of excellent races in defeat later last season when going down by 2L off a mark of 93 and just over a length off a mark of 91 last Summer before his form tailed off which saw him drop to a really nice mark of 81. Although his route to this race last year was different (had two runs prior), he goes extremely well fresh and Eric Alston should have him spot on for this after last years narrow defeat and its a race that the trainer has had some very good success with having 2 winners in the past 10 renewals. Looking at the contest, the only other horse in the field that looks an out and out front runner is Silvanus (who also has a bad draw) and that could be hugely beneficial to Foxy Music. Although it will be tough to get to the front from his wide birth, he has won from stall 10 at the course before and he certainly has the early speed to get across to the rail in front. David Probert looks an eye catching booking and is one of the best jockeys who can make a weight as low as 8-2 and Foxy Music has been very lucky to have creeped in here as bottom weight. Eric Alston has his horses in good order at the moment and I'm 100% sure that Foxy Music will be absolutely spot on for this contest. Clearly a well handicapped horse, if Foxy Music can get to the front early without too much hassle and Probert can set the right fractions then I think this enthusiastic 9 year old could take quite a bit of pegging back and I feel he has a great chance of going one better than he did last year. 16/1 is an absolutely huge price in my eyes (which could easily get bigger tomorrow) and if all goes to plan then I'm hoping Foxy Music can earn a well deserved victory in this race.

8.30 Newcastle

Ersaal 6/1

Keeping this very short but I think an opening handicap mark of 70 could be very lenient for Roger Varian's handicap debutant and I think it looks very telling that this 3 year has stayed in training and remained a Colt for this Hamdan Al Maktoum owned horse. The first foal of the Listed place Makaaseb, this son of Dubawi showed some smart form in 3 pretty decent Maidens which have thrown up a lot of winners and I definitely feel a mark of 70 could prove very workable. A horse who had a lot of decent entries at the end of last season which he didn't fulfil, Ersaal was clearly a horse that was well thought of before making his racecourse debut and although he probably didn't live up to those expectations as a 2 year old he must have grown quite a bit over the winter to be kept in training as a 3 year old from his powerful connections and they must surely feel there are races to be won with him. The excellent Andrea Atzeni takes the ride for the bang in form Varian yard and this represents a rare visit to Newcastle for the trainer who is 2-5 at the track. Ersaal makes the 500 mile round trip with promising stablemate Huffoof and Andrea Atzeni is also coming a fair distance from Southwell to ride these two. I think Ersaal could prove very popular amongst punters tomorrow and he could easily start half his current price and I'm pretty confident that this 3 year old could take quite a bit of beating on his handicap debut.

ste2010

Rossom I have to say your selection posting is incredible, through tough times and good times you never fail to deliver with the exception of that night you were out on a session all night a few weeks ago! My biggest question is where do you get the time to do so much research as I'm sure these are the result of your short listing..?

Howjoe1

1.45 Chester

Blithe Spirit 9/1

Rossom,

given our new trends thread, is stall 9 going to be too big a handicap to overcome?

Gringo180

Just looking at the Chester Cup race one horse that sticks out for me is Theology, currently 16/1.

the groutch

just nobody back Gatepost in the 3:15, as it's Alex Hammond's "tip" of the day.

myboycharlie

If Jwala can ping the gates today in the 4.25 and get across to the rail I think she is a very good bet. She had only sole power in front of her on her final start in 2012 at Doncaster and had confessional and masmah behind. She is only 1 pound worse off with the two on todays terms as she was getting 6lbs last year, 5lbs today. She was in bad need of her return run at bath a few weeks back and lead for a long way before trying and getting beat 3 lengths. She will love the sharp track if she can get out to the lead from stall 7, at 5/1 I think its worth the risk and by all accounts Shane Kelly is not happy to be missing the ride on her today as he is suspended.

mountai

Over two miles two, how can the draw be a big factor? . Murtagh/Mullins EW for me.

BQQ

the groutch wrote: »

just nobody back Gatepost in the 3:15, as it's Alex Hammond's "tip" of the day.

Backed it already, so it's doubly jinxed.

the groutch

mountai wrote: »

Over two miles two, how can the draw be a big factor?

it's the positioning of the stalls on a bend just before turning into the home straight, so if you're drawn 15-20 horses wide it take alot of effort out of the stalls to avoid being out the back

Slattsy

What one the first ?

Fancy Keeping in the next. Should have done it last night, missed the big prices

Slattsy

There's about a million non runners at Gowran already !!

Gringo180

Slattsy wrote: »

What one the first ?

Fancy Keeping in the next. Should have done it last night, missed the big prices

1 Quatuor 9/2
2 Blithe Spirit 13/2
3 Intense Feeling 40/1

rossom

That Quatuor looks a very, very decent filly.

Gringo180

rossom wrote: »

That Quatuor looks a very, very decent filly.

Yes she wasn't stopping at the line, impressive considering she made all at a frantic pace. I went with your selection Blithe Spirit but did it each way so thanking you.

Have Hollowina in the next race she has some interesting form and could be anything.

realgolfgeek

2.45 Suraj, at 25/1 e.w

SRFC

A disgraceful ride on Simenon there from Murtagh cost it a chester cup :mad:

Slattsy

Result of the 2.45 lads ?

ShaneU

Slattsy wrote: »

Result of the 2.45 lads ?

Address unknown

rossom

Address Unknown was one of the two alternatives that I mentioned to Countrywide Flame who was a bonkers price. Only had a very small dabble though

Slattsy

ShaneU wrote: »

Address unknown

Thats all well and good but who won the race ???

mountai

SRFC wrote: »

A disgraceful ride on Simenon there from Murtagh cost it a chester cup :mad:

Are you taking the piss?? I thought it was a brilliant ride , got no luck, had to check back and all commentators agree it was the hard luck horse in the race. Having backed it EW Im more than happy with the Jock.

Johner

Didn't think it was a great ride myself.

Luap

Johner wrote: »

Didn't think it was a great ride myself.

I'd say you get that a lot yourself :P

Nope didn't think it was great either.

SRFC

mountai wrote: »

Are you taking the piss?? I thought it was a brilliant ride , got no luck, had to check back and all commentators agree it was the hard luck horse in the race. Having backed it EW Im more than happy with the Jock.

:rolleyes: the thing should of winning what race were you watching johnny rode it like he was having his first ride around chester.

Gringo180

Biggest bet of the day on Space Ship in the next at Chester, he's probably not the best horse in the race but I feel the other horses inexperience will cost them around this course.

the groutch

the groutch wrote: »

just nobody back Gatepost in the 3:15, as it's Alex Hammond's "tip" of the day.

BQQ wrote: »

Backed it already, so it's doubly jinxed.

went off 3/1f and finished 9th :pac:

mountai

SRFC wrote: »

:rolleyes: the thing should of winning what race were you watching johnny rode it like he was having his first ride around chester.

The way I saw it --- He came from a wide draw and settled in mid division, running the rail for most of the race. When he went to pull out , He didnt get a clear run and had to check back , when eventually getting clear he made the best of it for home. Dont forget , he was carrying top weight , there was 18 runners in the race and Chester being such a tight track wouldnt suit. How should he have done things differently????

Johner

Gringo180 wrote: »

Biggest bet of the day on Space Ship in the next at Chester, he's probably not the best horse in the race but I feel the other horses inexperience will cost them around this course.

I'm on this at 5/1 so it has no chance. :pac:

carpothepunk

Alex Hammond and GYTO, keeping me in the green since forever.

Johner

Get the **** in. Looks easy now but his maiden form looked very solid.

carpothepunk

Gringo180 wrote: »

Biggest bet of the day on Space Ship in the next at Chester, he's probably not the best horse in the race but I feel the other horses inexperience will cost them around this course.

Did that in the style of a very good horse.

SRFC

Gringo180 wrote: »

Biggest bet of the day on Space Ship in the next at Chester, he's probably not the best horse in the race but I feel the other horses inexperience will cost them around this course.

Great shout,done my bollx on it in doncaster so couldnt forgive that well done.

Gringo180

carpothepunk wrote: »

Did that in the style of a very good horse.

He's bumped into a few decent animal's in his last few starts, knew he would go close around Chester as a lot of the lesser experienced runner's would find it difficult on this track.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Will take a chance on Theology each way at 25/1 in the Chester Cup. Think it will prove to be a strong Newbury maiden Bannoffee won and looks an each way chance at 10/1 stepped up in trip, though ground may be a tad quick

:cool:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erRA6Ib5SZs

Gringo180

Hope that rain fcuks off so I can go over and get a bet on Noble Bull in the last at Chester :rolleyes:

kiers47

Bolgers in the first in gowran could be an absolute gift of a price at 6/4 that maiden he ran in the last day could be one of the better maidens of the year. O'briens as a rule tend to need a run.
Max bet for me on this!