Unofficial trends

ste2010

I said I'd start this thread just to share some unofficial trends I continue to see in the national hunt sphere to assist on the betting front.
There are probably loads to keep an eye on so do share if you have any you see, whether its flat or national hunt and hopefully we can all benefit pocket wise. I don't know the official strike rates on some of these

Now that Donald McCain is back in form tracks I seem to see him constantly have winners

Donald Mccain - Sedgefield, Bangor
Paul Nicholls - wincanton, Exeter
J J Lambe - Ayr
Victor dartnell seems to have a pretty good strike rate when he sends one horse out and travels over 200m

ft9

Gordon Elliot - Perth.

Rekop dog

Shark Hanlon, when he says they don't have a chance.

kksaints

Nigel-Twiston-Davis generally has a good record in October and the end of September/start of November time.

Imhof Tank

A few theories of mine are:-


Follow previous course winners at idiosyncratic tracks

Fakenham
Fontwell (chase)
Musselburgh
Wincanton (chase)

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Novice Handicap Chases - the English handicapper seems to overreact to winners of these big time. Blindly eliminate any runner raised for a win or placed run in a Nov H'cap - who are very often to the head of the market (lay these also if you are into laying favs); Eliminate the no hopers and make your selection from the others. These are often small field races so you will mostly have whittled it down to 1 or 2.

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I used to love draw bias sprint tracks like Beverly, Chester, Sandown etc where you could safely eliminate half the field from your calculations. The market has well and truly caught up with this nowadays and the clerks of the courses are always trying new things with the ground as well, so I don't focus on this much now.

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Follow Nick Mordin

ste2010

Cheers Imhof..re handicap comments..i completly agree with this and the approach..with the few exceptions its very rare a decent/average handicap horse wins more than 1 handicap a year. I've noticed like you say they win one, they get a dramatic increase in ratings and don't even factor for there next races despite usually being a principle in the market in races following their first handicap win unless they're turned out fairly quickly to avoid penaltys.
Towards the end of the season lately I try and narrow it down to horses who haven't won a handicap or try and identify horses laid out for the race by identifying potential or one time potential in their form. As you can imagine doing this at the start of the year is more difficult but usually you can find nice prices on these types

Imhof Tank

ste2010 wrote: »

Cheers Imhof..re handicap comments..i completly agree with this and the approach..with the few exceptions its very rare a decent/average handicap horse wins more than 1 handicap a year. I've noticed like you say they win one, they get a dramatic increase in ratings and don't even factor for there next races despite usually being a principle in the market in races following their first handicap win unless they're turned out fairly quickly to avoid penaltys.
Towards the end of the season lately I try and narrow it down to horses who haven't won a handicap or try and identify horses laid out for the race by identifying potential or one time potential in their form. As you can imagine doing this at the start of the year is more difficult but usually you can find nice prices on these types

What I have noticed in recent years also is trainers giving novice chasers their first handicap start in low grade non novice handicaps - winners and placed novices in these can sometimes be very leniently treated by the handicapper so they are then very interesting when going into novice handicap company.

Another trend that the market has possibly caught up with recently is the 3 yo stayers running over 1.6f +, from August on. Basically, there seem to be so few 3yos who truly stay these trips that the ones that do can run up quick sequences despite being penalised/ raised by the handicapper and opposed by the bookies each time. Sir Mark Prescott in particular is a master with these types.

BQQ

M hourigan rarely leaves Limerick without a winner when he's in form.

He's going well at the minute and had the winner of the bumper there yesterday.


Edit: Flat card today, so no runners.

klairondavis

Rebecca Curtis - Ffos Las

Tom Cooper - Listowel

Robert Tyner - Cork

bit of a bogey

The old classic combination of Hannon-Hughes in Windsor on a Monday evening

UrbanSea

Imhof Tank wrote: »

A few theories of mine are:-


Follow previous course winners at idiosyncratic tracks

Fakenham
Fontwell (chase)
Musselburgh
Wincanton (chase)

_______________

Novice Handicap Chases - the English handicapper seems to overreact to winners of these big time. Blindly eliminate any runner raised for a win or placed run in a Nov H'cap - who are very often to the head of the market (lay these also if you are into laying favs); Eliminate the no hopers and make your selection from the others. These are often small field races so you will mostly have whittled it down to 1 or 2.

_______________

I used to love draw bias sprint tracks like Beverly, Chester, Sandown etc where you could safely eliminate half the field from your calculations. The market has well and truly caught up with this nowadays and the clerks of the courses are always trying new things with the ground as well, so I don't focus on this much now.

_______________

Follow Nick Mordin

I'd add Brighton to that course list. Godolphin late in the year clean up maidens

Imhof Tank

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd add Brighton to that course list. Godolphin late in the year clean up maidens

I find Brighton draw bias is all over the place depending on the going.

Catterick is very similar - on bottomless ground they forfeit a lot of ground to come up the stands side

Howjoe1

Weld at Galway ...might be winner or two;)

DaithiMa

Avoid backing Bin Suroor horses until late July/early August. That is when he starts to hit form properly. Doubles and trebles galore!

ste2010

Current event running in Exeter today for nicholls. 2 p's last time in his form doesn Exeter make the difference today at 6-1

ste2010

Fakenham also on today anyone spot any previous winners running at the track

Imhof Tank

ste2010 wrote: »

Fakenham also on today anyone spot any previous winners running at the track

Plenty of previous course winners, but none that really fit the profile as they have all mostly run badly at the venue as well as winning there - for example Peak Seasons who is paper fav in the 3.00. I think he may be trained locally or something as he is a standing dish at Fakenham.

The only runner that might interest me would be WOM without the fav in the 2.30.

Edit - WOM is 7/4 W/O the fav in that with Paddy

Imhof Tank

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Plenty of previous course winners, but none that really fit the profile as they have all mostly run badly at the venue as well as winning there - for example Peak Seasons who is paper fav in the 3.00. I think he may be trained locally or something as he is a standing dish at Fakenham.

The only runner that might interest me would be WOM without the fav in the 2.30.

Edit - WOM is 7/4 W/O the fav in that with Paddy

Wom third to the favourite - foiled in typical fashion by the other Fak course winner in the field County Zen.

ste2010

No joy for current event either with a poor 3rd. I noticed laustra bad in the next at Exeter has hit and miss course form won twice there but pu on another occasion. With the exception
Of the jockey booking to me it could look like a bit of a plot horse at 33-1 which could have a bit of ew value will enjoy the ground too

sting60

I use "drawbias.com" when I fancy one in a sprint.Will add Roscommon-high-7f,Leopardstown-low-7f and Galway-high-7f.

ste2010

Nicholls has 3 running in wincanton today.
2 shorties and 1 10/3 shot. Lets see how it pans out
Outside of that I noted pipe has sent 1 mare to the last in southwell doing a 250 mile each way journey