Is this the first tropical wave of 2013?

hatrickpatrick

Hey folks, fairly new to forecasting so I could be way off here
There's a very large cloud formation just exiting the West coast of Africa, was just wondering is this just a regular disturbance or is it the first tropical wave of 2013? Was a bit surprised to see it, seems far too early for a tropical wave?

Bottom right in this image, stupid Weather Channel logo is blocking the way but you get the idea



It's the animated version which shows its motion in exiting Africa that makes it really look like a Tropical Wave though:

http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/atlanticoceansatellite_large_animated.html

Thoughts?

snowstreams

It sure does look like one, but one observation I can see is that its very far south compared to tropical waves later in the year. Probably because the sun is still further south at this time of year.

Its probably too close to the equator to get enough of the Coriolis effect to turn the wave into a tropical storm.

hatrickpatrick

It doesn't look like one anymore so much, obviously been decimated by either wind shear or the fact that the water isn't warm enough yet to support it once it leaves Africa.
Regarding it being so far south, I asked about this on another board and the gist of the answer is that the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the consistent band of disturbances you see just above the equator, moves a few times during the year, and from now until the end of the summer it drifts northward. With my limited knowledge of this (still learning!) I would say that what happens is, the tropical waves form in this band and once they're big enough they get pushed out of it by trade winds south of the equator. So basically, the later a tropical wave forms during the season, the further North it will probably be.

maquiladora

Nope.

Could be an interesting season though. All of the seasonal forecasts are going for active to hyperactive. There was a lot of named storms last year but a lot of them were short lived things that spun up out in the middle of nowhere, we could see more 'traditional' storm tracks this year. CSU has gone with a 72% probablity of at least one hurricane being a major at (US) landfall, something that hasn't happened since 2005.

hatrickpatrick

^ Sandy wasn't a major hurricane in category by the time it reached the North East US coast and yet somehow it managed to cause as much havoc as a cat 3 or higher might have caused.
Although perhaps that's just because the northeast isn't used to getting hit by hurricanes at all, so therefore even a categorically minor hurricane is a bigger problem for them than if it had hit the gulf of Mexico?

hatrickpatrick

Sorry to bump an old-ish thread, but look at that map now... I'd say that's almost definitely a proper wave?

Rikand

i say we keep bumping until we get a wave - Love watching the auld hurricane season from this side of the pond. Fascinating weather systems

maquiladora

The eastern pacific hurricane season has started bang on time with Tropical Storm Alvin, forecast to become a hurricane before the weekend.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

hatrickpatrick

Yeah noticed that one yesterday - is there any particular reason the Pacific has a longer hurricane season and a year-round typhoon season, while the Atlantic is almost always limited to June-November with one or two oddballs perhaps forming outside that time frame? I've always assumed it was just because the Pacific is so much bigger, more opportunities for disturbances to form, but is there any other reason?

hatrickpatrick

GOES-East is down, hence why you can't see the African coast's weather in that graphic anymore. This is the same satellite, GOES-13, which malfunctioned last September just before Hurricane Sandy arrived. With about a week to go before Hurricane Season kicks off, the timing couldn't be worse for the NHC...

They have anoher satellite in standby, GOES-14, but they're not going to move it into position until they're sure 13 can't be re-activated quickly. So in the meantime, one must rely on METEOSTAT for Eastern Atlantic imagery, but as far as full wide-view Atlantic photo go we're blind for a little while.

The meteostat image for the African coast can be found here if anyone's looking for it:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg


Infrared here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

But in the long term it's a tedious replacement for the GOES wide images