The property market

tootsy70

I know this thread that could be easily be on par with "how long is a piece of string" kind of question but one i thought id ask anywway.

Just wondering whats left to go with price drops in the irish property market in the coming years. Weve seen property prices al over the country fall more than 50% of boomtime prices but realistically how much more of a drop will we see in the next few years up untill the next decade. Ive been hearing horror stories that our property market wont be returning to normal levels for aleast 20-25years.

I know theres decent prices out there at the moment but when are we going to see a normal functioning market and we have properties all holding prices to their particular areas. Im seeing same type houses going for at least 50k difference(or more) yet they are only a few mins away from each other with no real benefit of an extra 50k,im seeing this all over the country and esp in the west.

Ive heard about x amount of properties on the banks books what theyre looking to offload this year and this is suppose have a big effect on the prices but how bad would we be talking, would we see another -10-20% reduction on 2013 levels etc..

I know weve still a long way to go but when could we see our econemy be back to decent employment levels and with a decent proprty market without all this madness weve seen last 10 years

D3PO

tootsy70 wrote: »

I know this thread that could be easily be on par with "how long is a piece of string" kind of question but one i thought id ask anywway.

Just wondering whats left to go with price drops in the irish property market in the coming years. Weve seen property prices al over the country fall more than 50% of boomtime prices but realistically how much more of a drop will we see in the next few years up untill the next decade. Ive been hearing horror stories that our property market wont be returning to normal levels for aleast 20-25years.

How people have the mentality that boom prices were "normal" is beyond belief. I stopped reading after this. :eek:

tootsy70

D3PO wrote: »

How people have the mentality that boom prices were "normal" is beyond belief. I stopped reading after this. :eek:

Sorry i didnt mean this. What i was meant to say that when will we see true value in property where a working family are getting decent value for money instead of this madness we seen throughout the boom years.

Scortho

Op define a normal propert market?
What we had from 1998 onwards was not a normal housing market.
Rises of 17% in the value of a property is unsustainable over the long run.
Generally around the world, property values track inflation and in the long run settle out at this level.
The property market will return to normal in about 3-4 years.
What you see as normal and what I believe is normal could be two different things altogether.

Eric Cartman

tootsy70 wrote: »

Sorry i didnt mean this. What i was meant to say that when will we see true value in property where a working family are getting decent value for money instead of this madness we seen throughout the boom years.

I would consider the current prices normality , if not a bit on the high side in dublin, its just that banks arent as ready to lend as people would like. but a household with a decent combined income of 50-60k can afford to pay a new mortgage without starving at the moment.

tootsy70

Scortho wrote: »

Op define a normal propert market?
What we had from 1998 onwards was not a normal housing market.
Rises of 17% in the value of a property is unsustainable over the long run.
Generally around the world, property values track inflation and in the long run settle out at this level.
The property market will return to normal in about 3-4 years.
What you see as normal and what I believe is normal could be two different things altogether.

What i meant was property prices rising with inflation or not that much rise above it.

Scortho

tootsy70 wrote: »

What i meant was property prices rising with inflation or not that much rise above it.

Ah well then i think we've reached the price or are close to the price outside dublin.
The biggest issue is that you now have a total lack of supply in dublin at the moment.
Coupled with the fact that there is more than one market. There's well over a dozen sub markets in dublin at the moment.

There's a house on park ave. in rathfarnham which is a nice estate but its 53% higher than a house a few doors down sold for in 2011!
Now both you and I know that house prices have risen that much.
But supply of houses is the biggest issue. In 2011, I could have had a shopping list a mile long with the amount of reasonably priced dublin houses.
I can't find half a dozen that I like.
And until this repossession process kicks off, were not going to see prices falling much more in dublin anyway because the supply isn't there at the moment.

Speaking of house prices, read some if the posts from 2006 in this thread. Sweet Jesus one or two of those chaps were spot on.
http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2054915795/1

The_Conductor

I'd echo what Scorto has said- the market has fragmented. Dublin alone has several submarkets, the Pale could be considered another market, cities such as Waterford, Cork, Galway another, The midlands unfortunately another etc etc.

Some markets are bouncing along the bottom through lack of supply (notably the Dublin market) other markets continue to have ridiculous levels of vacant property (the midlands, Leitrim etc) and then we have the ghost estates, many of which will ultimately be levelled.

Yes- Dublin prices may experience some degree of stability- however it would be foolish to suggest the same is likely elsewhere- as quite simply Dublin is our only city of critical mass that attracts people from the rest of the country- many of other cities are smaller than medium sized towns in most other countries.

Will prices increase with inflation? Who knows. We have more austerity on the horizon, another contraction of 3.5 billion apparently that the government are keeping very damn quiet about, alongside imminent water charges and god only knows what else.

gurramok

We've all heard about austerity, troubled bank lending, repo's on the horizon, employment levels(which have not significantly risen, only part time work has slightly risen recently) but emigration is a serious elephant in the room which will affect prices down the line.

The scale of the emigration of the young has not been publicised in the media yet.

There are 120,000 less people aged 15-30 in this country in 2012 than there were in 2006, (other age groups increased, see page 7)
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2012/popmig_2012.pdf

Thats a whole swathe of potential first time buyers wiped out. You need first time buyers for a properly functioning market, not a generation gap.

Zamboni

Ireland produces nothing.
We have a current transient attraction for MNCs.
We have a broken balance sheet.
We have a population devoid of critical thinking.
We have a history of poor self governance and regulation.

This country is not ready for the world economy of 21st century.
Residential property prices will decline further as our lack of preparedness becomes more apparent, MNCs leave and jobs are obliterated.

hfallada

Zamboni wrote: »

Ireland produces nothing.
We have a current transient attraction for MNCs.
We have a broken balance sheet.
We have a population devoid of critical thinking.
We have a history of poor self governance and regulation.

This country is not ready for the world economy of 21st century.
Residential property prices will decline further as our lack of preparedness becomes more apparent, MNCs leave and jobs are obliterated.

Ireland is the largest exporter of beef in Europe. With end of the Milk quotes Ireland will probably be one of the largest exporters of milk. Ireland produces enough food for 40 million people and theyre is only 4.5 million of us. There is a ton of latin Americans studying english here.

We have ton of MNCs who arent going anywhere and expect more now that Ireland is now more competitive. Irish owned companies are exporting more than ever. Plus Irish people are still having large families which require housing.

Ireland will recover

StillWaters

Zamboni wrote: »

Ireland produces nothing.

Really?

http://www.ibec.ie/IBEC/DFB.nsf/CE3417C464EE44AE8025773D003B57D8/D769361533448E8D802577EE0050E31F

Zamboni

hfallada wrote: »

Ireland is the largest exporter of beef in Europe. With end of the Milk quotes Ireland will probably be one of the largest exporters of milk. Ireland produces enough food for 40 million people and theyre is only 4.5 million of us.

Agri-food sector only provides for 7.7% of national employment.
http://www.teagasc.ie/agrifood/

So we make a few burgers...

Ireland will be asset stripped of natural and human resources and left with a dumbed down population and some good agricultural land.
A handful of people will make a few quid through a couple of sectors such as agri-food.
The demand for housing will be strong with population growth but the lack of decent paying employment will result in a decrease in residential property prices.