Dan Martin & Tour de France

pelevin

Hi all. Fairly new to getting into the world of cycling & I've been looking at Dan Martin's odds for the Tour, & Ladbrokes have him quoted at 200/1. Is this a fair reflection in a mountainous Tour, i.e. he has no chance or is a podium finish in any sense a genuine possibility?
Worth a few bob each way?

2011abc

Careful who you bet with , read the small print etc -there was a v unhappy lady on Joe Duffy last year saying she'd placed a bet on the Tour and they'd refused to pay out after she won a few grand ...

Captain Havoc

He'll probably be riding for Ryder Hesjedal so it would be a fair reflection but I would of had him a bit shorter, maybe 100/1.

Captain Havoc

2011abc wrote: »

Careful who you bet with , read the small print etc -there was a v unhappy lady on Joe Duffy last year saying she'd placed a bet on the Tour and they'd refused to pay out after she won a few grand ...

True, I remember Paddy Power refusing to pay 3000/1 on Shane Lowry winning the Irish Open. Bookies have a clause, where by if an employee makes a mistake they don't have to pay those odds, also I read somewhere that a contract made by gambling has no legal status or something to that effect.

pelevin

Captain Havoc wrote: »

He'll probably be riding for Ryder Hesjedal so it would be a fair reflection but I would of had him a bit shorter, maybe 100/1.

Hesjedal not just a Giro possibility then? Reckon Martin's hopes focused so maybe on domestique duties and maybe winning a mountain stage?

elduggo

Captain Havoc wrote: »

He'll probably be riding for Ryder Hesjedal so it would be a fair reflection but I would of had him a bit shorter, maybe 100/1.

no he won't. Hysjedal wasn't meant to ride the tour last year. After he won the Giro JV gave him the option of riding the tour or not. He opted to partake with a 'see how it goes' approach. It was confusing who was the actual team leader in the first week. By week 2 there was no-one still in contention due to a series of crashes.

Dan and Talansky will be joint team leaders this year. At best Ryder will get a joint-leader spot but theres no way the team will be set up around him as the sole protected Ryder.

In saying that, were something to happen him that he couldn't finish out the Giro then that could change. Hes a better GC prospect than either Dan or Talanasky at the moment IMO.

I think a top 10 spot for Garmin's best-placed GC rider in the tour would be the best they can hope for.

CardinalJ

Captain Havoc wrote: »

True, I remember Paddy Power refusing to pay 3000/1 on Shane Lowry winning the Irish Open. Bookies have a clause, where by if an employee makes a mistake they don't have to pay those odds, also I read somewhere that a contract made by gambling has no legal status or something to that effect.

It's classed as a 'gentleman's agreement', so if theres an obvious problem with the odds, like 3000/1, they wont pay out. You'd get your stake back though. Had an argument with PP before on something similar on a rugby bet and they paid out, wasnt even nearly as big as 3000/1 though, unfortunately.

Id say 200/1 is long for him, but he won't be Garmin's No1 so its still unlikely. FYI, you can get him at 300/1 if you really want to place a bet!

pelevin

CardinalJ wrote: »

Id say 200/1 is long for him, but he won't be Garmin's No1 so its still unlikely. FYI, you can get him at 300/1 if you really want to place a bet!

Though of course it doesn't matter how long the odds are if he hasn't a hope! Still just a few euro each way won't bankrupt me, & he has been pretty impressive on a few hills of late.

CardinalJ

pelevin wrote: »

Though of course it doesn't matter how long the odds are if he hasn't a hope! Still just a few euro each way won't bankrupt me, & he has been pretty impressive on a few hills of late.

True that. So you may as well go for 300/1 so. Get you that bit more if he goes v well.

pelevin

CardinalJ wrote: »

True that. So you may as well go for 300/1 so. Get you that bit more if he goes v well.

Do you know who's quoting the longer odds?

CardinalJ

pelevin wrote: »

Do you know who's quoting the longer odds?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner

888 sport.

unichall

In my opinion he hasn't a hope of a podium. He has been going well, no doubting that, but his time trialling isnt up to it and he wont be able to take any significant amount of time, that he will lose in the TT's, out of the podium hopefuls in the mountains. For example, he wouldn't have won the tour of catalunya if there jad have been a time trial stage. Being realistic if he can stay in the lead pack every day in the mountains never mind distance his rivals he will be doing well.

What would be a better bet mighy be the polka dot jersey. He showed he can take off on his own and win on mountain tops and if garmin find themselves somewhat leaderless he may have free reign to get out ahead and gobble up the points but in order to be allowed away he would have to be well down on GC and no threat to the leaders

riparooo

As mentioned his weakness is time trailing and although this Tour is light on it, he still stands on historical form to lose about 5 - 7 mins from other GC leaders. His other weakness has been consistency and in the tour if you are fighting for GC you can't have a bad day.

Even in the tour of catalonia he lost time on the day before his solo victory, indeed the fact he was down on time was one of the reasons he was allowed get away. The other important factor was that the other Catalonia leaders were surprised he was able to stay away. He wont get away with surprising them again.

However I think his performance and GC chances are largely down to the Garmin set up, if Hysdejal is in a support role then Martin is a protected rider. If thats the case I think a podium is more than realistic. Bear in mind that the third place rider in TdF in 2012 was 6.19 behind. So a punt on him at 200/1 is a good enough price.

BTW I got Martin at 400/1 e/w before christmas so I have an obvious bias here!

pelevin

Thanks lads, my uninformed punt in the dark will now be a bit more of an informed punt. How about Hesjedal/Hysjedal at 8/1 in Giro. Are Wiggins odds of basically evens or even shorter realistic or coloured by the fame factor & being British?

Econoline Van

Can you get odds on Dani to finish in the top 10?

Vaughters has said he's a rider who could win the KOM so that could be worth a punt also.

If he gets on the podium I'll eat my (cycling) helmet.

riparooo

KOM of mountains odds wont be out until just before the Tour starts.

AFAIR the last few have gone not to high mountain climbers but rouleurs who collect points on 2nd and 3rd category climbs in long breakaways. This is a role that DM will not be a natural to and would only happen is JV decides to specifically target the KOM jersey at the cost of any GC ambitions or mountains domestique for DM.

Craig06

Paddy power have him at 80/1 now.

Political Wall Map

The only man to put the money on is froome. Im considering doing either nibali and froome to win giro and tour or wiggo and froome to win them.

Id say you would get decent odds on a double.....

ROK ON

This tour will be an interesting test for DM - coming off a huge block of performance.
JV & DM are on record as saying that they need to decide is he a pure classics/short tour rider or a GC contender. I think this is his test.

I think he has a GC podium in him, but I think it is Spain (maybe Italy) and not France.
It is worth remembering that Dan finished 10/11th in Vuelta two years back. In doing so he lost two minutes in a TT and was penalised (outrageously) 2 minutes for holding cars.
If he lost 1min on TT and was not penalised he could have finished 5th/4th.

Since then the TT has improved.

I would like to see Dan use this tour as a test and have a right go for polka dot and a stage win. He needs to decide where to focus. Tony Martin for example already does this, but he is opposite of Dan - weak in mountains string in tts. The reality is that the two types of rider are probably their biggest competition for the 3-7day tours.

Regardless of who Garmin back I think they need to build a team to give those leaders a good shot. That means leaving Farrar at home and I don't know will they do that.

Inquitus

Best you can get on Froome is 11/10 and 15/13 on Wiggins, so no you won't get great odds, Nibali is at 11/5 for the Giro.

Inquitus

ROK ON wrote: »

This tour will be an interesting test for DM - coming off a huge block of performance.
JV & DM are on record as saying that they need to decide is he a pure classics/short tour rider or a GC contender. I think this is his test.

I think he has a GC podium in him, but I think it is Spain (maybe Italy) and not France.
It is worth remembering that Dan finished 10/11th in Vuelta two years back. In doing so he lost two minutes in a TT and was penalised (outrageously) 2 minutes for holding cars.
If he lost 1min on TT and was not penalised he could have finished 5th/4th.

Since then the TT has improved.

I would like to see Dan use this tour as a test and have a right go for polka dot and a stage win. He needs to decide where to focus. Tony Martin for example already does this, but he is opposite of Dan - weak in mountains string in tts. The reality is that the two types of rider are probably their biggest competition for the 3-7day tours.

Regardless of who Garmin back I think they need to build a team to give those leaders a good shot. That means leaving Farrar at home and I don't know will they do that.

Aye on a good climbing parcours with not too much ITT, preferably uphill, he probably has a shot at a gc podium at some point, agree its most likely to be in the Vuelta or the Giro.

Craig06

Sure bring Farrar, he'll only crash anyway. They should be able to bring a team with a huge amount of experience though. Like to see Millar on the squad.

MPFG

Is Dan Martin riding the Tour ....I thought he was riding the Giro and after that had not been decided but Talinsky is Garmin leader for the Tour

Anyway I wouldn't back againt Bertie for the Tour , regardless of recent indications...he is one determined individual

I know it would be hard for Niabili to beat Wiggins because of all the TT but .....
I would actually love to see Cadel Evans win the Giro

unichall

If you fancy Dan to develop as a GC rider Ladbrokes are offering 25/1 on him to win the tour in the next 3 years

dastardly00

I would think Talansky will be the leader for Garmin-Sharp in the TdF, with Dan being a protected rider (i.e. not having to do any domestique duty), going for the stage wins and the KOM competition.

MPFG wrote: »

Is Dan Martin riding the Tour ....I thought he was riding the Giro and after that had not been decided but Talinsky is Garmin leader for the Tour

Dan is riding the Cycle4Life event on the day that the Giro starts

MPFG

dastardly00 wrote: »

Dan is riding the Cycle4Life event on the day that the Giro starts

I must have got Cycle4Life and the Giro mixed up...:rolleyes:

Easily Done !

(I just thought he was going to pay back Ryder in the Giro....Must be just me in my own world - which is nothing new :Da)

elduggo

pelevin wrote: »

How about Hesjedal/Hysjedal at 8/1 in Giro.

He was 80/1 on paddy power the week before the start last year. I recommended to a few gambler mates to back him. None did. I don't gamble.

elduggo

oh and FWIW I don't think Dan will do much in the tour. I'd love to be wrong but the tour isn't exactly a level playing field. The Giro seems the most 'honest' grand tour these days. Spain has always been, and probably always will be a joke, and the tour is just plain ridiculous really. I think Dan had a baptism of fire last year, finding himself trying to breakaway with non-climbers on hilly stages, and getting dropped. And it was nothing to do with his ability or fitness.

Like I say, I'd love to be wrong.

pelevin

unichall wrote: »

If you fancy Dan to develop as a GC rider Ladbrokes are offering 25/1 on him to win the tour in the next 3 years

Pretty short odds. I saw William Hill have Peter Sagan at something like 12/1 to win it in the next 6 years.

lennymc

dastardly00 wrote: »

Dan is riding the Cycle4Life event on the day that the Giro starts

Maybe he is giving the giro guys a head start

pelevin

elduggo wrote: »

He was 80/1 on paddy power the week before the start last year. I recommended to a few gambler mates to back him. None did. I don't gamble.

If only I knew you then.

funnights74

Nice feature in todays indo. http://www.independent.ie/sport/other-sports/im-doing-it-clean-i-hope-that-inspires-kids-to-believe-its-possible-29244318.html

dastardly00

Dan got presented with a cake from the organisers of the Cycle 4 Life event.
Cool that they included the panda!

elduggo

the panda was at the cycle 4 life event. No stone left unturned by them lads

Dr. Bre

Dan had bad start in the Bayern-Reundfahrt race today lost a minute to the overall bunch

MOD VOICE: Some may consider these spoilers before midnight,

riparooo

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Dan had bad start in the Bayern-Reundfahrt race today lost a minute to the overall bunch

MOD VOICE: Some may consider these spoilers before midnight,

I doubt he is looking to get a result on this race its not his kind of route and he is in a supporting role so wouldn't read to much into yesterdays result.

happytramp

Anyone know what his programme is for the rest of the year? Haven't a clue.

MPFG

happytramp wrote: »

Anyone know what his programme is for the rest of the year? Haven't a clue.

Doing the Tour of Switzerland starting on 8th June and then the Tour de France

I think he has a good chance of wining the Worlds Road race this year if he has enough helpers

happytramp

MPFG wrote: »

I think he has a good chance of wining the Worlds Road race this year if he has enough helpers

Interesting. Means, if he (or Roche) gets enough UCI tour points then we'll have more spots at the worlds right? What is it the top ten countries? We're currently 14th.

http://www.uciprotour.com/templates/BUILTIN-NOFRAMES/Template3/layout.asp?MenuId=MTY3Mzc&LangId=1

riparooo

For the worlds if we have one rider in the top 100 we get three spots. If the nation gets into the top 10 we get six riders. The cut off dates is 15 August.

I'd be thinking that the vulnerable countries in the top 10 that could fall out over the next two and half months are Netherlands, Switzerland and Slovakia.

Roche and Martin will have to perform excellently in both tour of suisse and the tour de france to get us in the top 10.

MPFG

Switzerland - Cancellera ?
Slovakia - Sagan ??

I think both could ride well in Tour of Suisse
As for the Tour de France it depends as both are riding for others - stage wins are a possibilty ..not sure if that will be enough ??