Punchestown Day 3 $$$$$$$

UrbanSea

Plan A goes tomorrow in the second off a mark of 124, a stone lower than his hurdle rating. Fancied this for a handicap at Cheltenham but didn't go, this is one of JP's most blatant handicap plots for a while. 9/1 with PP at the minute, what's off putting is whether to hold out and see if it's backed or take the price in the hope that it is backed.

mountai

Well I"m backing the same three horses I backed at Aintree !!!!!

1. Solwhit
2. Solwhit
3. Solwhit

Cant believe 6/4. I have doubled him up with Big Shu odds of 9/1.

Pity one of the Syndicate wont be there tomorrow to receive the trophy, best wishes are with Ger.

shy-tall-knight

Form of Mad Brian's second to Morning Assembly was boosted nicely today, he looks the value at 10/1 in the first.

Good turnaround in the weights for Boston's Angel tomorrow, should see him go a bit closer than at Cheltenham. Wouldn't fancy Big Shu.

Would also not surprise me to see Dazzling Susie run well in the Ryanair, having a bet on her at massive odds, very hard race to figure out.

Gringo180

No bets for me, I dont like the Irish meetings at all so hard to pick a winner.

rossom

Quevega all the way for me tomorrow. Very surprised to see 13/8 is available and its a lump bet from me, especially with the news that Solwhit hasn't really come out of the Aintree race that well.

Also, only 2 horses have won at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown in the same season which are Istabraq and Sprinter Sacre. Says it all about the task Solwhit is facing.

I expect another comprehensive win by the wonder Mare.

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

Plan A goes tomorrow in the second off a mark of 124, a stone lower than his hurdle rating. Fancied this for a handicap at Cheltenham but didn't go, this is one of JP's most blatant handicap plots for a while. 9/1 with PP at the minute, what's off putting is whether to hold out and see if it's backed or take the price in the hope that it is backed.

11.25 each way is my max with Powers :rolleyes:

I agree it is quite blatant how he's been plotted from his first run over fences (which Special Tiara has boosted) and Elliott's horses have been in good form lately

UrbanSea

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

11.25 each way is my max with Powers :rolleyes:

I agree it is quite blatant how he's been plotted from his first run over fences (which Special Tiara has boosted) and Elliott's horses have been in good form lately

I got 20 on at 9s, was gonna have more but still unsure bad market vibes would put me off

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

I got 20 on at 9s, was gonna have more but still unsure bad market vibes would put me off

I'll see does anyone match the 9/1 and have a bit more on (had the ****ing 11.25 each way :rolleyes:). 9.8 to lay but the market is very weak

rossom

It looks like he's obviously so well handicapped based on his hurdles form that I expect there to be quite a bit of money around for him (even if its not the yards)

mailburner

quevega for me also

if that news is true about solwhit it makes quevega a great
bet but its possible the chelt and aint runs may have
taken their toll anyway
think i backed plan a on a couple of occasions but the one that
stuck in my head was when nina was on board at aintree
still leaves a bad taste in my mouth

shy-tall-knight

Plan A has plenty of races in him but I'm leaving him tomorrow as they might want to keep as a novice next year, still being only a 6 year old.
I reckon novice chasing for the summer is the plan but could be wrong.

the groutch

Going for Boston's Angel in the cross country, getting a 19lb turnaround of the weights against Big Shu, maybe a small saver on Star Neuville, the potential dark horse of the race.

If any bookies does betting without the first two in the stayers hurdle I'd have a bet on Fiveforthree, ran a cracker at cheltenham after a long layoff and will come on a fair bit for that run, and won this back in '09.

Baily Green looks overpriced in the novice chase, finishing 2nd to Simsonsig is probably the best piece of form of any of the horses in this race.

kksaints

Just looking at PP and saw that Arvika Legionnaire was favourite for the 6 40. Was very surprised at this after the way he ran at Cheltenham and how disappointing some of Mullins have run this week.

Would much rather be on something else I think Special Tiara run at Aintree was very good and should run very well

MaDloock90

The ladbrokes world hurdle is an interesting race. The two in front are obvious favourites but the one I like is Reve de Sivola who's last race was against Solwhit at Cheltenham ! He was subsequently beaten that day by 5 lengths but Reve was giving giving Solwhit 13 pounds and off a a career high mark of 167 ! Solwhit will now give 20 pounds to Reve who's mark is 160 which is more workable than 167 and that might just reverse the form ! Quevega was very leggy last time out in a weaker race and may of needed the run but this will be a much tougher task.

Colonel Sanders

MaDloock90 wrote: »

The ladbrokes world hurdle is an interesting race. The two in front are obvious favourites but the one I like is Reve de Sivola who's last race was against Solwhit at Cheltenham ! He was subsequently beaten that day by 5 lengths but Reve was giving giving Solwhit 13 pounds and off a a career high mark of 167 ! Solwhit will now give 20 pounds to Reve who's mark is 160 which is more workable than 167 and that might just reverse the form ! Quevega was very leggy last time out in a weaker race and may of needed the run but this will be a much tougher task.

Huh?

Mgoraf

There was/is no one giving any weight away its a grade one...bar quevega who get a 7 pound mares allowance. Hoping she comes on for her last run to win this. Big ask for solwhit

chickendinner

what gordon elliot has to say on plan a

"Plan A was given a break after being pulled up behind Sole Witness at Navan in December as he'd been on the go all year at that stage so he was certainly due the break. He's still to get his head in front over the bigger obstacles, having been quite a good hurdler, winning off a mark of 134 at Fairyhouse in September 2011. He has a mark of 124 over fences, compared to his hurdles mark of 139 so he looks quite well treated at the moment, and if he could manage to reproduce his good hurdling form over the fences here today, he'd have a small each way chance.

He finished second to Henry De Bromhead's Special Tiara at Ballinrobe last September only beaten a length at the finish, and that piece of form looks particularly strong now after the winner went on to win the Grade one Maghull novices' chase at Aintree recently. He has winning form on all types of ground and has gone well fresh in the past, and with Niall Madden booked to take the ride I'd be hopeful that he could run a good race and possibly run into a place with a bit of luck."

UrbanSea

chickendinner wrote: »

what gordon elliot has to say on plan a

"Plan A was given a break after being pulled up behind Sole Witness at Navan in December as he'd been on the go all year at that stage so he was certainly due the break. He's still to get his head in front over the bigger obstacles, having been quite a good hurdler, winning off a mark of 134 at Fairyhouse in September 2011. He has a mark of 124 over fences, compared to his hurdles mark of 139 so he looks quite well treated at the moment, and if he could manage to reproduce his good hurdling form over the fences here today, he'd have a small each way chance.

He finished second to Henry De Bromhead's Special Tiara at Ballinrobe last September only beaten a length at the finish, and that piece of form looks particularly strong now after the winner went on to win the Grade one Maghull novices' chase at Aintree recently. He has winning form on all types of ground and has gone well fresh in the past, and with Niall Madden booked to take the ride I'd be hopeful that he could run a good race and possibly run into a place with a bit of luck."

Haha such a load of ****e, ''a small each way chance, could run into a place''.

Is that on his Betfair column by any chance

chickendinner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Haha such a load of ****e, ''a small each way chance, could run into a place''.

Is that on his Betfair column by any chance

lol
it is, i never said it was genuine,

carpothepunk

Aul Slippers will almost certainly coast round on it. I have backed it, myself, but its a funny aul betting heat. The 14s about Harpsy Cord seems particularly big.

Holywell seems a very big price in the biggun. Big ask for Solwhit, although he is, IMO, the best horse in the race. I fancy Quevega to be outside the top two, and Holywell is the play for me at 14s.

UrbanSea

chickendinner wrote: »

lol
it is, i never said it was genuine,

I remember what was written before Chicago Grey won, worried about the ground and all this. First thing in the interview was he was delighted about the ground. Don't think he even writes it

MaDloock90

Which would be correct ! haha I don't know how my head thought that was a handicap ! Just discount everything I said bar the last bit, I too am hoping Quevega strips a bit fitter this time around ! Think there's a bit of class about her.

rossom

To be honest I think Plan A may well have his Novice status saved until next season. Other then that he looks on a very workable mark.

unitedrover

Realt Mor 6.40 Punchestown. He won very well at Fairyhouse in the powers gold cup when making all from the front. Expect him to make the running again and burn out the challengers. Although the other jockeys will respect him more and not be too keen to give him much of a lead. Should have a strong chance nonetheless.

jimjamcos

4.15 Plan A: Taking Urban's advice and having a small ew.

5.30 Quevega: Most people seem to think that Solwhit will win tomorrow and while he's a worthy favourite, I think Quevega's got a serious chance of maintaining her unbeaten run. Willie Mullins has, somewhat cheekily, described the Mares Race as a prep run for this but in a way, it is. No horse can be at his/her very best first time out regardless of its class or trainers ability to get it ready. Some are saying Quevega ran below-par at Cheltenham but very little went right for her in running and she still managed to win from way off the pace. What's often forgotten is that the Mares race is over 2m4, a trip that rarely allows a recovery from the kind of trouble Quevega found herself in. While a different class from her opponents, she was utterly dominant at the finish and won going away. I suspect she needs the 3m these days and expect herself and Solwhit to be jumping the last together. I just hope her 7lbs allowance can make the difference.

6.40 Arvika Ligeonniere: Can't believe I'm backing this fucker again but he's got everything to suit for one last run with my money. He's 2/2 at Punchestown (albeit against poor opponents) and, similar to Mount Benbulben on Tuesday, going right-handed is a massive plus. Ground will suit and he holds the likes of Benefficient, Baily Green and Oscars Well on Leopardstown form from Christmas. He always had their measure that day IMO. I know Realt Mor loves soft but he benefited from a brilliant Davy Condon front-running ride to win the Powers Gold Cup LTO and Arvika is almost sure to take him on up front. I'm happy to oppose Alderwood until he proves himself better than a top handicapper. Hopefully Arvika Ligeonniere's price will drift before the off, given his last 2 runs.

7.15 Twigline: While Upsie looked very good FTO, she seems to have beaten very little so I'll happily go with the slightly more-experienced Twigline at a bigger price. She fell a couple of runs back over in England when looking a big danger to Henderson's Utopie Des Bordes and was then a good 2nd to Missunited LTO.

MaDloock90

I think Harpsy Cord at 14s is too big a price to resist. He jumped well last time out over 2m 2f, where he ended up coming 4th with the favourite in the market Barneys Honour beating him by half a length or so but Harpsy Cord was second coming up to the last fence, the 2f run in killed him so dropping down to 2m might help him. He's only 7 and weighted nicely at 10-11 so there could be room for more improvement and first time cheek pieces might bring that out !

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

Haha such a load of ****e, ''a small each way chance, could run into a place''.

Is that on his Betfair column by any chance

From his Betfair column for day 1... :rolleyes:

18.40 Punchestown - Mount Benbulben

He ran well in the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse at the end of March, and was only beaten 5 ¼ lengths in the end behind our other horse Realt Mor. He could never really get on terms with the winner on the day, who was given a superb front running ride by Davy Condon, and he never touched a twig. The same couldn't have been said about this horse, and his jumping was a bit sketchy all the way around and the mistake he made two fences from home put paid to any winning chance he may have had. He has a huge engine, but his jumping can just let him down at crucial times in his races and it's something he'll need to improve on to be competitive today.

Prior to Fairyhouse, his win at Thurles was very impressive and he was foot perfect that day and he showed us just how good he can be. He has a marked preference for going right handed, and he was in the process of running well here last November in beginners' chase, when he was bang there with a real chance when eventually paying the penalty at the third last after a bad mistake. This race looks like living up to its Grade One status and he face some very strong competition, with the likes of Willie Mullins' pair Back In Focus and Boston Bob, Tony Martins' reopposing Dedigout and Dessie Hughes' RSA runner up Lyreen Legend in opposition. Retained rider Danny Mullins is booked to take the ride, and if his jumping improves he goes into this race with a good chance of sneaking into a place and taking his share of a very nice pot.

When Gordon says place claims he really means great chance! :cool:

RichieLawlor

Did Carberry lose the ride on Solwhit? That's harsh if so

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Did Carberry lose the ride on Solwhit? That's harsh if so

Russell rides

Tough one tbh, he was always Russell's ride but Carberry gave him a corker at Cheltenham

Colonel Sanders

Powers have cut their 9/1 Plan A. ****ing jokers, I only wanted a pony each way. 11.25 FFS

Overthelast

Their trading desk is probably keeping a close eye on your & Urban's posts here :pac:

0ph0rce0

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

Colonel Sanders

Overthelast wrote: »

Their trading desk is probably keeping a close eye on your & Urban's posts here :pac:

Nah just a pathetic joke of a firm

I should tell them I work for An Post in Gorey, no problem getting on then

Overthelast

Any views on the bumper lads? I know they are a minefield but I'm at work today but will be home to watch it so was looking at it last night.

I followed that Punchestown Bumper grand gesture (not directors forum!!) ran in last yr. Good few winners came out of it but he's been stuffed twice this season, which is off putting.

Not too keen on the Mullins yoke.

That Cailin Annamh ran really well at Aintree so is of definite interest. Looking back, she ran behind that May Dullea last yr. I normally avoid mares like I do the wife but she's back for her first run since then & there is collateral bits of form from that race to Gift Shadow who ran well yesterday. Love kings theatre offspring so I'll probably lob todays €20 on her. Given my first two days picks, that should finish off her chances.

Overthelast

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

When you say €1700 in your credit card, is that "Credit" (ie + cash) or a limit?
If your borrowing to bet, that would be a rather risky punt, imo. Surely wait and find a better 2/1 shot and lob a 100 or whatever on it within the next week?

cson

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Russell rides

Tough one tbh, he was always Russell's ride but Carberry gave him a corker at Cheltenham

Gave him a super ride at Aintree too. Some man for producing a horse late. A Jamie Spencer of the jumps racing; when he's good he's very good, when he's bad he's poisonous.

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

It's silly if you can't afford to lose it.

You could potentially set up a PP Cash Card and lodge to you account via credit card and then withdraw it in cash iin the shops but I'm not sure if they allow that.

Slattsy

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

You're asking for trouble if you want my honest opinion.
Do a lucky 15 and keep your money safe, buy yourself a nice Hugo Boss suit. Everyone should have a HB suit in 2013.

mountai

Personally , I"m delighted to see Russell back on Solwhit. As for Carberry"s rides on Solwhit,--- , After the Cheltenham race , Carberry made it clear that he was riding to instructions and he had obeyed his orders, we were never going to see a typical "Carberry ride" winning on the line. Shortly afterwards, his ride on Our Vinnie , was , IMHO , abysmal. I had expressed my doubts before the race , and was proved right. Aintree , was just a steering job, and I"m sure Byrnes had told him what to do again. Why anyone would consider Carberry , to be in the same league as Russell is beyond me.

SRFC

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

Mug bet,one them falls breaks down or doesnt run its race you have 1700 running really one the one still running to win what 300 quid,just throw a 100 into the account and back a few fancies try make a few quid if ya dont no worrys you only done a 100 rather than 1700,Solwhit has been on the go now a few months them races might catch up with him and quevega is a mare as everyone knows they are moody and can down tools when they feel like it.

fangee

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Have €1700 on my credit card.

Stuck for fundage in my current.

Need a few quid not much.

So was thinking sticking 850 on Solwhit for €2018.75 and 850 on Quevega for €2231.75

Either way i get my €1700 back plus €300 or €500 and cant really see one of these 2 loosing.

Unless they fall

Is it silly do you think or should one be safe. What you think???

My understanding is (was) that whatever card you place the bet with you have to withdraw on the same card. Might have changed since I punted online.

If not then why not just lodge €300 from you credit card to your bookies account and then transfer it back to your current account from your bookies account without having a bet ?

0ph0rce0

Haha all good points.

Just done me a lucky 15

Come on the 21,000

RichieLawlor

MaDloock90 wrote: »

The ladbrokes world hurdle is an interesting race. The two in front are obvious favourites but the one I like is Reve de Sivola who's last race was against Solwhit at Cheltenham ! He was subsequently beaten that day by 5 lengths but Reve was giving giving Solwhit 13 pounds and off a a career high mark of 167 ! Solwhit will now give 20 pounds to Reve who's mark is 160 which is more workable than 167 and that might just reverse the form ! Quevega was very leggy last time out in a weaker race and may of needed the run but this will be a much tougher task.

Whats going on here, how did i miss this first time round, also it seems the word 'subsequently' is an intruder in this post

sting60

MaDloock90 wrote: »

The ladbrokes world hurdle is an interesting race. The two in front are obvious favourites but the one I like is Reve de Sivola who's last race was against Solwhit at Cheltenham ! He was subsequently beaten that day by 5 lengths but Reve was giving giving Solwhit 13 pounds and off a a career high mark of 167 ! Solwhit will now give 20 pounds to Reve who's mark is 160 which is more workable than 167 and that might just reverse the form ! Quevega was very leggy last time out in a weaker race and may of needed the run but this will be a much tougher task.

I think I see where your comming from but this is not a handicap and OR ratings have nothing to do with workable marks.Its a huge indication of the horses ability and current standing.In having a bet in all Grade 1 chases/hurdles this year and you backed the highest rated on OR you would be up money.

RichieLawlor

fangee wrote: »

If not then why not just lodge €300 from you credit card to your bookies account and then transfer it back to your current account from your bookies account without having a bet ?

You will never be allowed do this

sting60

mountai wrote: »

Personally , I"m delighted to see Russell back on Solwhit. As for Carberry"s rides on Solwhit,--- , After the Cheltenham race , Carberry made it clear that he was riding to instructions and he had obeyed his orders, we were never going to see a typical "Carberry ride" winning on the line. Shortly afterwards, his ride on Our Vinnie , was , IMHO , abysmal. I had expressed my doubts before the race , and was proved right. Aintree , was just a steering job, and I"m sure Byrnes had told him what to do again. Why anyone would consider Carberry , to be in the same league as Russell is beyond me.

Your taking the piss

premierstone

mountai wrote: »

Personally , I"m delighted to see Russell back on Solwhit. As for Carberry"s rides on Solwhit,--- , After the Cheltenham race , Carberry made it clear that he was riding to instructions and he had obeyed his orders, we were never going to see a typical "Carberry ride" winning on the line. Shortly afterwards, his ride on Our Vinnie , was , IMHO , abysmal. I had expressed my doubts before the race , and was proved right. Aintree , was just a steering job, and I"m sure Byrnes had told him what to do again. Why anyone would consider Carberry , to be in the same league as Russell is beyond me.

So he was simply following instructions in one race, another was a steering job but the one that lost was an abysmal ride :rolleyes:

Carberry is an extremely talented rider and is never a negative booking, he may not be everybody's cup of tea off the course but as Ted Walsh would say anyone that doesnt recognise he's talent is not very bright (Ted may have used more colourfull language)

BTW I think Russel is a top class jockey aswell but was just taken aback by the criticism of Carberry - anyone that cant give credit for those Solwhit rides is either very very bitter ior talking as do phoca.

kfallon

mountai wrote: »

Personally , I"m delighted to see Russell back on Solwhit. As for Carberry"s rides on Solwhit,--- , After the Cheltenham race , Carberry made it clear that he was riding to instructions and he had obeyed his orders, we were never going to see a typical "Carberry ride" winning on the line. Shortly afterwards, his ride on Our Vinnie , was , IMHO , abysmal. I had expressed my doubts before the race , and was proved right. Aintree , was just a steering job, and I"m sure Byrnes had told him what to do again. Why anyone would consider Carberry , to be in the same league as Russell is beyond me.

Fair enough, your opinion!
Can I ask why you think Russell is in a different league to PC?

MaDloock90

As I said, for some strange reason I thought it was a handicap ! Should of deleted the post to stop confusion haha

Hulk Hands

mountai wrote: »

Personally , I"m delighted to see Russell back on Solwhit. As for Carberry"s rides on Solwhit,--- , After the Cheltenham race , Carberry made it clear that he was riding to instructions and he had obeyed his orders, we were never going to see a typical "Carberry ride" winning on the line. Shortly afterwards, his ride on Our Vinnie , was , IMHO , abysmal. I had expressed my doubts before the race , and was proved right. Aintree , was just a steering job, and I"m sure Byrnes had told him what to do again. Why anyone would consider Carberry , to be in the same league as Russell is beyond me.

Because at his best, he simply is the best. He has produced rides that no one else is capable of. Once when asked who the most talented jockey around was, all 3 of Geraghty, AP and Ruby replied 'Paul Carberry' without hesitation.

Now it must also be said that he's not as consistent as the likes of Russell. He has thrown in shockers that most top jockeys simply wouldn't. So it's a percentages game with him, he may blow hot or cold and some people prefer someone consistent like Russell.

RichieLawlor

Mountai probably still blames Carberry for Harchibald not winning the CH.:)

Id rather have Carberry on mine than Russell anyway

sting60

MaDloock90 wrote: »

As I said, for some strange reason I thought it was a handicap ! Should of deleted the post to stop confusion haha

Keep the posts comming and i mean that in a nice way.