Punchestown day 2

ste2010

The machine SRFC was on about is running tomorrow. Viconte Du Noyer beat blood cotil in his last start in auteil if I can recall :-)

Oscars Well.

Willie Mullins visited Colm Murray before Cheltenham and said Ballycasey wouldn't be beaten in the Albert Bartlett. He was pulled out on the morning of the race with a muscle problem I think. 11/10 tomorrow, if he's as good as they think he'll take plenty of beating but Inish Island is no pushover.

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

The machine SRFC was on about is running tomorrow. Viconte Du Noyer beat blood cotil in his last start in auteil if I can recall :-)

That definitely the one he was on about yea?

I'd say poor old SFRC is in the homeless shelter after today's results but he probably somehow managed to back the one Mullins winner and miss the rest I'd guess! :P

UrbanSea

At a big price I'll chance Habesh each way in the 2 mile novice hurdle. He ran much better than the result suggests in the Fred Winter, he absolutely pulled the arms out of the jockey early on still had every chance two out before weakening. If he can settle better he could outrun his odds of 33/1.


In the second last Tranquil Sea has been given a real chance by the handicapper and at 14/1 is a nice each way price.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

That definitely the one he was on about yea?

I'd say poor old SFRC is in the homeless shelter after today's results but he probably somehow managed to back the one Mullins winner and miss the rest I'd guess! :P

I'm guessing it is :-) some stinkers today alright..make you wonder about the big guns tomorrow. Que- Kauto stone and Quito de la roque destroying 3 gold cup horses

ste2010

Happy new year in the first is over priced at 20-1

ShaneU

All over Briar Hill 5/4 at 6.05

TheMilkyPirate

Think blackmail is overpriced at 12/1 in the bumper. Wasn't his true running there and think he will fare a lot better tomorrow, Briar hill will be tough to beat but worth a shot at those odds.

Finding it hard to get overly excited about anything else really.

Overthelast

Nadiya de le vega for me tomorrow. If today is anything to go by, that should anchor her tomorrow. If she's carrying my money, that's like superman swallowing an ounce of kryptonite.

Briar Hill looks to have the bumper to himself. I suppose captain chris might surprise the big two in the main event. 4yr old race looks rotten. Ballycasey missing Cheltenham may be a blessing seeing how a few ran today.

jimjamcos

I fancy Blackmail to go well in 6.05 Bumper tomorrow. Ran poorly in Cheltenham Bumper but I'm willing to excuse that run as many horses are intimidated by big fields there for the first time, the trip over and even the hill. Before that, he had some good form behind Ted Walsh's decent Champagne James (Martin said they made a mistake in rushing him to race that day) and today's winner Moyle Park. He showed a fine turn of foot to easily beat Sizing Chile in his final run before Cheltenham. He's more of a speed horse so Punchestown track should suit better than Cheltenham. Like Jezki with Champagne Fever today, I think Blackmail can turn the form with Briar Hill who's an out-an-out stayer and a bad fav IMO.

Blackmail ew @ 12/1

ste2010

I'd agree with people's assessments on blackmail.

ste2010

Overthelast wrote: »

Nadiya de le vega for me tomorrow. If today is anything to go by, that should anchor her tomorrow. If she's carrying my money, that's like superman swallowing an ounce of kryptonite.

Briar Hill looks to have the bumper to himself. I suppose captain chris might surprise the big two in the main event. 4yr old race looks rotten. Ballycasey missing Cheltenham may be a blessing seeing how a few ran today.

7/2 for Nadiya is the best interest rate money can buy

prettyboy81

I like the look of Outlander & Ballycasey double tomorrow.

Hulk Hands

Had a biggish bet on Ballycasey at 11/10 earlier, think he will turn out to be an exceptional horse. Everything looks in his favour tomorrow also if he's primed and ready.

FL and Captain Chris are the 2 for me against the field in the big one. I'll get up early to avail of some of the 'pricewise prices' on CC. I think FL is the best 3 miler in the field, obvious worry being the quick return after Aintree. Still, at 5/1 there's enough room in there to warrant backing, along with the 7's on CC. I haven't studied the bumper, but on first glance i'll be a Briar Hill layer if he goes off a short price.

Niallers87

Will this Viconte Du Noyer win!?!!

Slattsy

Had Ballycasey prices antepost for Cheltenham only for him to miss it :mad:

Wont touch him tomorrow at those short prices.

Colonel Sanders

The Gold Cup is a trappy race. I'm guessing Captain Chris is pricewise, huge money waiting on the pink side

Hulk Hands

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The Gold Cup is a trappy race. I'm guessing Captain Chris is pricewise, huge money waiting on the pink side

Him and riverside at 7's and 20's

ste2010

Niallers87 wrote: »

Will this Viconte Du Noyer win!?!!

As illogical and silly as this might sound..Mullins owes the Potts a big day out. Would be no surprise if he's been readied for this race with that in mind.

ste2010

Maybe I phrased that wrong urban..a day out in which Mullins might have some level of control over..
Similar to the fosters cross (for his brother) blackstairmountain day or the tennis cap piqué sous day
He owes them some level of a day..if be interested to see the full results of his wins for th Potts horses. I don't believe it's significant

barney4001

I think Mullins will get 5 or 6 winners tomorrow doing them in trebles quads quins and an each way roll up

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

7/2 for Nadiya is the best interest rate money can buy

Geraghty writes in in his ATR blog (wasting a big positive)...

"I’ve been on what you might call light rations over the last few days to make sure I can get down to 10st 4lb for NADIYA DE LA VEGA (6.40) in the Guinness Handicap Chase on the second day of the Punchestown Festival.

It’s the lightest I’ve done for a while but I’m pretty hopeful that it will be worthwhile and you know my sentiments when it comes to doing light - if it’s got a chance then I’d rather be in the action than watching it on TV in the changing room.

I’ve just had to watch what I’ve eaten over the last few days, been running and having a sweat and I mowed the lawn on Tuesday morning which will have burned off a few calories.

There’s plenty in the mare’s favour because she won impressively last time at Fairyhouse at the beginning of April and unless there’s been a printing error she’s stayed on the same mark of 140 which looks pretty good to me seeing as she won by over five lengths.

She doesn’t have a problem with the ground conditions and this is her specialist trip of two and a half miles.

Nicky Henderson has had nearly three weeks to freshen her up from that last win and she’s got a very solid chance."

rossom

2.55 Epsom

Right Step 8/1

Alan Jarvis's 6 year old was disappointing for most of last season but is far too well handicapped a horse to leave unbacked and after an encouraging seasonal reappearance on Kempton last month he could be set to bounce back to form on the card he won on last year off a 7lb higher mark. Now rated 83, this is the lowest mark he's been off since his handicap debut way back in 2010 and although probably not as good a horse that saw him rated 100 back in 2011 I'd be very surprised if he's not up to winning off this mark. Last year Right Step made his seasonal debut on the flat (fit from hurdling) to score in the Investec City and Suburban Handicap (Spanish Duke's race) impressively off a mark of 90 when coming from a long way back to score going away by 1.5L on heavy going and his subsequent rise to a mark of 97 saw him unable to land a blow for the rest of the season. On his 6 subsequent starts, he was very disappointing (latterly of 89) but his final start off a mark of 86 at Doncaster was more encouraging when a 5L beaten 5th of 21 in a competitive handicap as he returned to some semblance of form. That was his final start of last years campaign and I thought he made an encouraging seasonal reappearance last month at Kempton. Off a mark of 84 under 7lb claimer David Parkes, Right Step was anchored at the rear of the field and it took him until the final furlong before he got going as he was staying on strongly in the closing stages to finish a well held 4th. It was certainly a step in the right direction and I think it should leave him spot on for today. The handicapper has relented by dropping him a further 1lb to a mark of 83 and this is the lowest mark he's been able to run off since his 3 year old days and he's clearly very well handicapped. It's no surprise to see him return to Epsom given that he clearly goes well hear and I'm very happy to see he is just one of two horses with winning course form at this track which a lot of horses don't like. Although Alan Jarvis is winnerless on the flat since last November, he hadn't had a winner on the flat for even longer before Right Step won at Epsom last year so that isn't a concern at all and the yards latest National Hunt runner was successful so it seems the yard are coming into form. Jim Crowley, who was on board for last years success, takes the ride and I'm very much expecting a big performance. Now 7lb below his last winning mark and with an encouraging reappearance under his belt, I think Right Step looks primed to run another very big race this year and I'm quietly confident he can land this valuable pretty valuable prize.

3.55 Epsom

Spanish Duke 4/1

This looks exactly the type of horse Brian Ellison excels with and I am very sure that this very decent pot has been earmarked by connections for quite a while given that he bolted up in this contest back in 2011 for former handler John Dunlop off a 3lb higher mark. Spanish Duke joined current connections for 27,000 Guineas back in October from the now retired Dunlop and he looks on a very workable mark of 92 on with a really encouraging reappearance run under his belt on stable debut. Although winless since winning this back in 2011, he showed on a couple of occasions last year that all his ability remains and I think the switch of stable will work the oracle with him. Looking back at that win at Epsom (his last success) he looked a horse that was on a huge upward curve that day as he travelled like a dream (despite pulling fiercely throughout) and hit the front on the bridle before quickening like a very well handicapped horse to win as he liked in a race that worked out well. Although raised 10lb to a career high mark of 105 after that effort, it's very surprising that it was his last win as he scored in the style of an upwardly mobile horse but it just hasn't worked out for him since. He was poor for the rest of 2011 barring his final start when beaten 2.5L in a Conditions Stakes contest against some useful sorts. Starting off last year rated 100, Spanish Duke had 7 starts and although disappointing on 5 of them he was desperately unlucky in 2 of them. The first of these unlucky in running efforts came at Epsom off a mark of 97 in June 2012 when he was hemmed in at a crucial stage before switching out and running on strongly at the finish to be beaten 2L in a race that worked out well. The other unlucky effort came last August on his 3rd last start for Dunlop off a mark of 94 when he was again hampered at a crucial stage before he ran on strongly to finish 4th. Those two efforts clearly demonstrated that he's still got wins left in him and I am full sure Ellison will get him back to the winners enclosure.

One very important thing to note is that, for one reason or another, John Dunlop's horses did not seem to fire last year and I think Spanish Duke will benefit significantly from the switch of yards. Spanish Duke made a highly encouraging stable debut when given a very easy time of things earlier this month at Pontefract in a run that was clearly designed to do two things: get a run under his belt and attempt to get him to settle in a first time hood. On the back of a 192 day absence, as soon as the stalls opened Dale Swift took a took and anchored him at the rear of the field. Despite being his usual keen self early on, he settled an awful lot better then he has previously as it seemed the application of the hood worked very well. Held up a country mile off the speed, Dale Swift began a long sustained run from the 2f pole and barring one whip it was a hands and heels drive which saw him make up a lot of ground to finish a 7L beaten 6th. Another two things to note are its very difficult to come from off the pace at Pontefract and that contest was definitely one that suited those to the fore and I don't think you could ask for a much more pleasing stable debut given that Ellison had said prior to the race he would come on for the run. Tomorrow Spanish Duke returns to Epsom and he clearly loves the idiosyncratic nature of the track with a win and unlucky 3rd from just two starts here which is a definite plus given that most of his rivals tomorrow are unproven at the track. The booking of William Buick very much catches the eye tomorrow on what will be just his 3rd start for the yard and its clear that they mean business putting him up. In the retained hood, I really hope they don't anchor him in last as there doesn't look a huge amount of pace and although the widest draw isn't ideal I feel it won't be the difference between him winning and losing. Brian Ellison has his string in absolutely tremendous form at present and this is a very rare runner for him at the track which the yard send just Spanish Duke on this over 8 hour return trip. Although I strongly fancy him to be successful, there are a few unexposed typed that could plausibly spoil the party so I'd recommend taking the 4/1 e/w with Bet365 as I just cannot see him out of the first 3. With the hood retained, everything looks set up for Spanish Duke to run a huge race in this and I strongly fancy him to win this contest again and snap a 2 year winless spell in the process.

rossom

7.05 Taunton

Bob's Legend 16/1

If fully fit from his 181 day absence, I really fancy Bob's Legend to win this very poor looking race for Martin Bosley and if he does so comfortably I won't be at all surprised. This 7 year old is a horse I've been waiting a long time to reappear as he was an absolutely massive eye catcher in my books on his last start on handicap debut off a mark of 106 and now that handicapper has been extremely lenient in dropping him back to a mark of 100 I think he has the ability to trounce this field if fully fit. After two runs in bumpers back in 2010 for Linda Jewell, Bob's Legend embarked upon his hurdles career for Martin Bosley in November 2011 in a Class 4 Novice Hurdle at Uttoxeter. I have to say it was an effort that screamed of a lot of promise for all his atrocious jumping. On the back of a 19 month absence from his day with Jewell, this gelding was held up in the rear of the field by Andrew Thornton and for the entire contest his jumping was about as novicey as your ever likely to see - if it transpired that he had never even seen a hurdle before that race it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest as that's how bad his jumping was. Nevertheless (and somewhat amazingly) he remained on the bridle the whole way through the contest as he just kept progressing through the field passing 8 of his 14 rivals as he finished a completely not knocked about 17L beaten 6th. Although that race wasn't very good, to jump that badly yet make what was very good and seemingly effortless headway was rather eye catching and he did really come across as a horse who could have a very good engine. A month later he ran at Fakenham in what has turned out to be a pretty decent maiden and although beaten a long way in 6th, he was again never knocked about in a race where the first 3 home are now rated 134, 126 and 120. Although improved, his jumping still left a lot to be desired as he showed a tendency to jump right handed.

His final start of the 2011/2012 season came in February of last year at Doncaster where Bob's Legend again put in a display of considerable encouragement when a not knocked about 21L beaten 6th in what again looks a very decent Novice contest. After being quite keen and free in the early stages of the contest, Bob's Legend sat a few lengths of the leading group of 8 for most of the contest where he still jumped a little novicey (considerably better than his first two starts over hurdles). In between the 4th and 3rd last flights, he seemed to be getting a little lazy so Andrew Thornton gave him a big whip with the stick - the only time I have seen him touched with the whip in his 4 starts over hurdles - and he responded to it well as he, once again, was not unduly knocked about as he finished a good 6th. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Oscar Nominee coming out and getting beaten only 2 necks in the Conditional Jockeys handicap at the Cheltenham festival a month later off a mark of 135 whilst the 2nd Victor Leudorom won 4 Novice Hurdles in a row after this and is now rated 132. Additionally, the 3rd home Special Catch easily won his next two starts in Novice Hurdles and is rated 127. Although he may not have troubled these three if asked for everything (could well have), he would have finished a damn sight closer and regardless of this he's now playing a completely different ball game now handicapping off a mark of 100.

In October last year, Bob's Legend made a very eye catching handicap debut a mark of 106 at Ludlow on the back of a 270 day absence and it seemed as clear as day that this was merely a pipe opener for him. On his blog trainer Martin Bosley stated "Bob's Legend has grown into a much stronger horse and mentally much more relaxed" and it certainly seemed to be the case. Settled at the rear of the field, Bob's Legend clearly had a fair bit of schooling over hurdles as he was much tidier over his obstacles.On the long run before the home straight for the final 3 flights, Bob's Legend scythed through the field in effortless fashion as he travelled as well as anything to sit just in behind the leading 4 and it looked as if he was going to play a massive hand in the race. However he was never given any urging to attempt to play a hand in the finish as he came home at his own pace to finish nearly 20L beaten in 6th. Once again, that seems a very good contest with the easy winner the legendary Sporting Boy subsequently annihilating a better race under a 7lb penalty whilst the 2nd Stevie Thunder and 4th Dizzy River have both run up to about the same level of form on their next two starts. In his blog after the race, Martin Bosley stated " He looked amazing, a quality horse in looks and performance - looked like a young footballer having his first game of the season...A super run for an inexperienced horse and looking like a winner in due course". I think its a very accurate summation of the performance and I couldn't agree more about him being a winner in waiting.

With only 4 hurdling efforts under his belt, he's clearly open to considerable improvement (and I expect an awful lot of that). Handicapping was clearly always going to be his game and I think he looks more than capable of defying his current mark of 100 - and this is without me ever seeing the button pushed on him! Connections maintain that he is a horse that need quick ground and with the abysmal weather for most of this season he has been unable to run again and its taken 6 months for him to get his desired ground. If this run wasn't coming on the back of an absence, I would be having a sizeable each way bet as if he wins this comfortably I won't be surprised but the 181 day absence is just niggling at the back of my head. That said, the yard clearly have no problem readying a horse with both their National Hunt winners this season coming on the back of an absence and they could have run him on his unfavoured ground to keep him fit Martin Bosley has his horses in good order with Topthorn (who I expect to comfortably win the proceeding race) successful recently and the good to firm ground should be ideal for Bob's Legend. I don't think connections could have found a much easier race for him to run in as this looks a very poor field despite its size and despite having to shoulder top weight I think he could prove much too good for this lot. With regular partner Andrew Thornton taking the ride, I strongly fancy this unexposed 7 year old in this and he looks a tremendous price at 16/1 (already been nibbled) and if he wins this comfortably I will not be the least bit surprised. I'd definitely advise anyone looking to back him to watch back his last run and as long as my eyes aren't deceiving me I think he's got an excellent chance of winning this race. If he wasn't coming here on the back of an absence, I'd be having a much larger bet but I've still had a decent go as I think Bob's Legend could be absolutely chucked in.

passremarkable

Any spare ticket lying around for today not been used?? Will probably head over

realgolfgeek

VICONTE DO NOYER

sting60

Gold Cup.At the weights SDC should win but Captain Chris going right handed is a different beast.Beaten a neck by long run at Ascot where LR was 10lb better in on ratings today LR is only 1lb better in and one is 7/2 and the other 6/1.CC should finish ahead of LR but I believe 6/1 CC is a bit skinny.6.05 Apache Stronghold 33/1.On breeding and form he will want good ground and if it drys he has a decent chance.When he won on good ground he beat a decent horse from Simon Crawfords yard who progressed to win in England and was sold recently for big bucks.33/1 is a big price but it all depends on the ground in a very hot bumper.3.40 Treat Yourself 16/1 has the form to run a big race.His 1/2 second to Sammy Black in the context of this race is quite good.

longshotvalue

3:40 Punchestown

I’m going for 2 big outsiders here that appear to be of a good mark. I selected Total Excitement when he ran last time at Cheltenham and from being miles out of it he ran on really well in the finish. He looks to have been given a decent shot by the handicapper here and looks worth a small bet a huge Betfair odds. Similarly Elysian Rock hasn’t run over hurdles in a long time but is on a very favourable mark compared to his chase mark. It’s more of a gut feeling selection and worth a min bet for this formally decent handicap chaser.

½ Point win ½ Point place Betfair Total Excitement 60w/10pl
½ Point win Elysian Rock Betfair 60

UrbanSea

Anyone know what the ground is like, is it turning good to soft

Edit soft heavy in places thought it had dried better than that

UrbanSea

aidankkk wrote: »

3:40 Punchestown

I’m going for 2 big outsiders here that appear to be of a good mark. I selected Total Excitement when he ran last time at Cheltenham and from being miles out of it he ran on really well in the finish. He looks to have been given a decent shot by the handicapper here and looks worth a small bet a huge Betfair odds. Similarly Elysian Rock hasn’t run over hurdles in a long time but is on a very favourable mark compared to his chase mark. It’s more of a gut feeling selection and worth a min bet for this formally decent handicap chaser.

½ Point win ½ Point place Betfair Total Excitement 60w/10pl
½ Point win Elysian Rock Betfair 60

Jesus Aidan didn't realise Elysian Rock was that price, he was 10/1 with pp last night cos I had my eye on him

Backstreet Moyes

Did SRFC say that Potts horse is this machine he is going on about. Looks a nice price on form but hasn't run in a year.

tonic wine

Briar hill NR

Edit: Would a book maker let you change accum bets with briar hill, or what happens the bet?

rossom

tonic wine wrote: »

Briar hill NR

Edit: Would a book maker let you change accum bets with briar hill, or what happens the bet?

Briar Hill becomes void and rest of the bet goes as normal. So if you had a 5 fold with Briar Hill it would now be a 4 fold.

bohsman

How will Blackmail backers from before the withdrawal be affected?

Slattsy

Nuts102 wrote: »

Did SRFC say that Potts horse is this machine he is going on about. Looks a nice price on form but hasn't run in a year.

We've not heard from him. Rumour has it he's been seen begging on O'Connell Street

blacon

Does anyone know what happens to a trixie if there is a non-runner?

Briar Hill is a non runner. Someone said it turns into two singles and a double - is this true?

JP Liz V1

The Crafty Butcher is my only bet today

Pinesky

blacon wrote: »

Does anyone know what happens to a trixie if there is a non-runner?

Briar Hill is a non runner. Someone said it turns into two singles and a double - is this true?

It's 2 singles and 2 doubles

droidman123

Slattsy wrote: »

We've not heard from him. Rumour has it he's been seen begging on O'Connell Street

I can tell you all srfc is safe and well. I took him in, he,s sittling in my kitchen right this minute having a bowl of soup. He,s beginning to talk in strange tongues,something about blocking willie from his facebook page.he wishes you all well.

the groutch

just the double on Nadiya & Viconte today.
Hard to be overly confident with Ballycasey at odds on, this is a big step up in class.

jimjamcos

droidman123 wrote: »

I can tell you all srfc is safe and well. I took him in, he,s sittling in my kitchen right this minute having a bowl of soup. He,s beginning to talk in strange tongues,something about blocking willie from his facebook page.he wishes you all well.

Give him my best wishes please! It's not easy when loved ones let you down.. I hope he finds it in his heart to get over Willie someday. Stay strong SFRC!

byronbay2

droidman123 wrote: »

I can tell you all srfc is safe and well. I took him in, he,s sittling in my kitchen right this minute having a bowl of soup. He,s beginning to talk in strange tongues,something about blocking willie from his facebook page.he wishes you all well.

Without wanting to put too much pressure on him in his present sorry predicament, could you gently ask him to confirm that the flying machine from the Mullins stable he referred to a few days ago (and said might be running today) is Vicomte de Noyer - he can get back to his soup then!

kiers47

Pinesky wrote: »

It's 2 singles and 2 doubles

No he is correct as he already stated it turns into 2 singles an 1 double. You can only have 1 double with only 2 selections!!

BQQ

kiers47 wrote: »

No he is correct as he already stated it turns into 2 singles an 1 double. You can only have 1 double with only 2 selections!!

treble becomes another double with same 2 selections

longshotvalue

6:05 Punchestown

With the favourite out this race looks to be a seriously open affair. I never mind discounting Cheltenham Form on other tracks as it’s a whole different ballgame, and with that in mind I’m going for Blackmail here. Before the festival he looked one of the top bumper performer’s, his 2nd to Moyle Park looks very decent now given that horses win here yesterday. He looks a nice bit of value here at 8/1 and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he resumed his decent form before going to the festival.

1 Point win Bet Victor ,Coral, Will Hill, Betfair

kiers47

BQQ wrote: »

treble becomes another double with same 2 selections

Yes but it is still the same double? If you did the same bet 3 times in a race would you say you had 3 bets in the race. Unlikely.

realgolfgeek

Why so much money for Gassin Golf, I don't understand ?

carpothepunk

Dirty aul race that.

naughto

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

The Crafty Butcher is my only bet today

nice 1
sorry though he won it

longshotvalue

realgolfgeek wrote: »

Why so much money for Gassin Golf, I don't understand ?

He was in my toughts until i saw his price of 7/1 and didnt think it was that great value, so he certainly doesnt look value at 7/2:eek:. He did travel well for a lot of the Truimph and pulled too hard.. If he settles he might stand a chance, and was a decent flat performer..

passremarkable

What happening for the 4.20?