Saturday 20/4

longshotvalue

Ayr 3:15

Oh Crick sticks out a mile as the value in this race as far as I can see. He is down to a winnable mark and I’m hoping that conditions will suit him tomorrow. He wasn’t too bad at the festival in a much tougher race and looks value at 10/1 in this company of this mark. He seems to have been around for ages but is still only 10 so there should be a race or two in him yet and I’m hopeful tomorrow is one of those.

1 Point win 10/1 Ladbrokes

longshotvalue

2:40

Silk Hall is the outsider of the field here and something is telling me he is overpriced. He should be capable of this mark and his last run back after a very long break was decent enough against 2 horses that are higher rated on unfavourable terms. He has had decent form in the past and the trainer likes this course. It more gut feeling than anything but worth a small shot at the 33/1 EW available.


½ Point EW 33/1 Various PP/Boyles/365 etc.

Niallers87

I think a poster made reference to JJ Lambe having two winners today in Ayr well tomorrow he runs 1 in the form of Shanroe Society in the first at Ayr, appears to be second favourite in the betting at at 6/1 with bet 365, might be worth an each way put as his horses seem to like it around here

ste2010

Shanroe society for me
Ifandbutwhynot in the competitive handicap hurdle.tough one to call

Outsider in the national pentific to add the Scottish national to his already attained New Zealand national at 50-1

ShaneU

Ayr 4.25 Saphir River definitely worth an e/w at 12/1

Ayr 5.35 No odds yet but Tradewinds was very impressive last time out and I'd expect more of the same here.

rossom

2.20 Newbury

Educate 13/2

If any of you can remember back to 2011 I advised Murura (very sadly no longer with us) as the biggest bet in my life and Educate tomorrow will be next in the pecking order with regards to the size of my bets as I am utterly convinced he will win this and win this very well. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Educate is considerably better than his mark of 93 and Ismail Mohammed's extremely progressive 4 year old has nowhere near stopped his improvement yet. A gelding operation has turned him from a maniac with immense potential into a horse that is able to showcase those talents on the racecourse. On countless occasions prior to the snip, he wasn't beaten all that far despite veering all over the place when asked to quicken but Educate is now 3-3 since the operation which has allowed him to show hs true ability as he aims to score for the 4th time in succession. Firstly, he scored off a mark of 76 at Sandown over a mile on good to firm ground when winning decisively which was,in the end in a pretty poor looking contest but he clearly improved significantly again when running out a supremely impressive winner on his final start when thumping a competitive field over 10f at York in October off a mark of 80 in heavy ground under top weight. A step slow and held up in the final pair under Jamie Spencer, Educate was still at the rear of the field when swinging into the home straight but he made persistent progress through the field before coming with a long, sustained challenge in the final 3f which saw Spencer never resort to using the whip and he was well on top to score by 1.5L. I felt that was an extremely impressive performance (apparently he hated the ground) and his mark was justifiably raised to 8lb to a mark of 88. He took the winter off where he was reported to have grown significantly and he certainly showed this when winning the Spring Mile at Doncaster 3 weeks ago.

In the lead up to the race, Ismail Mohammed's yard planner Terry Norman blogged about the horses chances and stated a myriad of concerns. Firstly, he stated that he hadn't been working overly well when confined to the AW gallops which he has been he hated (Echo Of Light progeny don't seem to like the surface). Furthermore, he wasn't nearly 100% fit after a mistimed preparation and would apparently come on for the run an awful lot. Despite all of this, Educate showed his class, determination and downright doggedness to score by a head. Held up in the midfield by Liam Jones, Educate travelled into the race nicely on soft ground (which Terry Norman is adamant he doesn't like) as he sat close enough to the pace. With about 1.5f to go, Elaine Burke's Boots And Spurs had a nearly 3L break on the field but Educate really started motoring late on as he got up to score by a narrow margin. Although the runner up has since disappointed at Windsor, it doesn't bother me in the slightest given that the Educate to win at Doncaster is not the horse we will see tomorrow with connections admitting they were "surprised" to see him win that day. The 5lb rise to a mark of 93 is more than fair for that victory and I fully expect him to have come on a stone for the run. Unlike his last run, the reports have been glowing about his preparation with Terry Norman reporting that he did his best piece of work ever at Newbury last week where he pulled 5L clear of Mubtadi (apparently an exceptional work horse) who was cantering all over him prior to his Doncaster success. Moreover, has apparently shed all the excess weight he built up over the winter and now has his girth done up 2 holes tighter with Educate described as being a much more mentally alert and physically fit horse. His preparation has seemed ideal and I could not be more confident about his chances of success.

People may brand me mad for having such a large bet on horse who is competing in a 25 runner field but barring interference I just can't see him being beaten. A lot of his opposition look exposed and those that look on decent marks certainly don't looked chucked in on official rating. Educate, however, is definitely on a very good mark in my opinion and undoubtedly the best is yet to come. Although I would prefer had he been drawn in a stall a little more central then 4, Laffan in stall 9 should go off at a very quick pace for those drawn low if they don't all rain in a group down the middle (which I expect them to do). Additionally, the ground should be a lot better then he has encountered the last twice and I expect we will see an even more impressive horse on the quicker going. Trainer Ismail Mohammed has his horses in stunning form this year with a fantastic 8 winners from 11 runners and I am convinced Educate will get that number up to 9 tomorrow. This son of Echo Of Light very much reminds me of Maarek last season and I definitely think we can expect a very similar season for Educate this year and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he rounds of the tail end of the season competing in Group Races. I don't think I could have emphasised in Educate tomorrow and all he needs to do is go on and win this - and I fully expect tomorrow that he will do just that in extremely impressive fashion.

UrbanSea

Rossom was it not around last Cheltenham you started putting picks here?


Urban sea's gee gees to make you weak at the knees for this week:



The Nephew 7/1 4.15 Bangor

Point winner over 2 and a half miles in England back in March last year, and was subsequently sold for 55,000 after that. Has shown little since then, going off 7/4 favourite in an Ascot bumper on heavy ground back in November, finishing down the field, and has shown next to nothing in five subsequent starts over hurdles, the first four being in novice races. Was beaten comprehensively in all of those races, trailing in by 34 lengths at Exeter, 85 lengths at Newbury, 93 lengths at Market Rasen and 81 lengths at Taunton.

Made his handicap debut last time out over two miles at Southwell on soft ground, and shaped better than his fourteen lengths forth suggests, having being badly hampered two out and not for the first time looking as though a step up in trip could suit.
Stepped up to two and a half miles tomorrow for the first time since his point win and with the better ground, I can see him running a much better race if he is really out to, given that the Jonjo stable stops more horses than foot and mouth. This is a weak race and hopefully he can run well having caught the eye several times so far over hurdles.

Model Pupil 1.50 Newbury 7/2

A lovely looking strong and imposing lightly raced son of Sinndar who really caught my eye last year as a three year old and he still didn’t look the finished article back then and I have high hopes that he could be much better than a Group 3 horse this season now that he has filled out even more and is learning from each of his races.

Raced once as a two year old, he had a most promising debut in a seven furlong maiden at Newmarket on good ground, running on strongly to finish a length third. Put away for the winter, he made his three year old debut again at Newmarket in a 10 furlong maiden, needing every yard and running on really well to just get up to deny Shantaram on the line, who went on to easily land a Group 3 after (third easily won a maiden next time, fifth won by 11 lengths next time before winning a handicap off 88 by six lengths and seventh won a maiden). Showed even better form next time out over 12 furlongs in the Group 3 Chester Vase, running really green and not seemingly not handling the track before looking an unlucky loser, finishing like an absolute train before going down by a nose to the smart Mickdaam.

It was a shame that he missed the majority of his classic year, suffering a setback in training before racing once more at three, disappointing when odds on in a Leicester conditions race last October, but I wouldn’t be too disheartened with that as that race was never going to be of the utmost importance. Has had one run this season, looking like a horse to keep on your side, demolishing a small field in a Doncaster Conditions race over this trip on soft ground, travelling well throughout before staying on impressively to win by 8 lengths.

Has a smart horse in Noble Mission to beat tomorrow from the same owner, but this horse is thoroughly unexposed as a four year old and think he can go on to bigger and better things. 7/2 is a fair enough price, and I don’t fancy Gaurantee at all, looks a slow horse who may well need another 2 furlongs.

Knockara Beau 3.50 Ayr 33/1

It’s the time of year again for the Scottish Grand National and it looks as wide open as ever, 26 runners traveling four miles and jumping 27 fences. A case can be made for probably every horse in the field but would advise small stakes on George Charlton’s ten year old.

Quite a frustrating horse, he was a duel bumper winner back in 2008, he was a smart novice hurdler, winning 2 of his 5 starts, including an impressive win in a Kelso Grade 2 before running a really good 9 lengths fifth in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival behind Mikael D’Haguenet.

Wasn’t far off the top of the novice chasing tree either in what looked a strong year, winning a novice and an intermediate chase at Carlisle, as well as a 2 ¾ mile Kelso novice, but ran some really smart races in defeat, including when a neck second to Weird Al at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, as well as when behind Diamond Harry at Haydock, behind Weird Al again at Wetherby and when second to Burton Port in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot. Ran his best run of the season arguably in the RSA Chase at the festival, a seven length forth behind Weapon’s Amnesty, keeping on well despite being badly hampered.

Has never gotten close to that form since then, however, being largely disappointing in the last three years. Did show good form back in December 2011 at Cheltenham over an extended three miles off a mark of 143, a strong finishing 3 lengths second to the progressive Shackalackaboomboom who he was giving three pounds to, who went on to run a good second at Doncaster next time out off four pounds higher. Continued to be more miss than hit, but did run a decent third in the Argento behind Midnight Chase, en route to being well outclassed in the Gold Cup, but did run on strongly to finish a 19 lengths sixth and was quite well fancied for this race last year, going off 11/1 off a mark of 147 before pulling up.

Again showed his hit and miss tendencies this season, pulling up first time in a Haydock handicap hurdle, but ran really well next time out to win a 3 mile Kelso handicap chase off a mark of 139, but disappointed over that C&D next time out off 145 when 11/10 favourite, beaten a long way into third. Has been running over hurdles since, and reverted to fences for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, going off 18/1 off a mark of 142 but he looked beaten when unseating. The horse’s jumping has always been a disappointment and has never looked like reaching the heights of his novice chasing days, but he looks the sort to relish a marathon trip on this better ground and a chance is taken at big odds with the first five being paid each way.

Bez32

Educate has been pricewised, glad I got on at 8's

kksaints

I know he is a short enough price for a 26 runner handicap but I think Rival D'Estruval has a huge chance tomorrow. He was running really well at Cheltenham last time before falling and could easily have won.

Grumeti in the 2 40 is also an extremely interesting runner and could easily be a class above his rivals if the absence hasnt taken its toll.

Slattsy

Now im not sure what price Kyllachy Rise is going to be tomorrow in the 4.05 at Newbury but its going to take a high class horse to beat this lad in this maiden.

Fourth on his debut in a red hot 7f Goodwood maiden last year, he stayed on really well to be beaten just over a length and now stepped up to a mile for this race he could take a lot of beating.
He still has an entry in the 2000 guineas and Dante, so is clearly held in some regard by SHC.

The form of that Goodwood maiden has worked out super, namely the winner Steeler who is now rated 112. Steeler was last seen when 3rd beaten under 2 lenghts in the RP Trophy by Kingsbarns at Donny. Before this RP run, Steeler won the Royal Lodge at Newmarket.
From that maiden the: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th, 13th, 14th, and even the 15th and last placed horse have all come out and won races since.

Cecil's horses have started the season in good enough form and unless Kyllachy Rise badly needs the run or there's a superstar in the race he should be up to winning this.
Hopefully he's a decent price !!

UrbanSea

I'm usually sketchy enough backing horses who are by sprinters over this far at three unless I know they handle it but you'd be very hopeful given his dam is by Barathea who won over 15 furlongs. Bit of a strange combination, good luck

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'm usually sketchy enough backing horses who are by sprinters over this far at three unless I know they handle it but you'd be very hopeful given his dam is by Barathea who won over 15 furlongs. Bit of a strange combination, good luck

If you see the replay of his run you'd have no reservations. Stayed on from a long way back and finished well.
I'm just afraid he'll be ridiculously short.

UrbanSea

Doubt he'll be too short Slattsy looks to have some nicely bred types in there. Glorious Protector was beaten five lengths not knocked about behind the Derby favourite


Actually Slattsy thanks for making me look at that race. Rock God looked a sure fire winner when runner up to Steeler first time out (finished in front of yours) but disappointed next time at Sandown. Could be one to do better

fangee

Bez32 wrote: »

Educate has been pricewised, glad I got on at 8's

Ah B*llocks.

That'll be all the value gone.

MoscowFlyer

Still available at 8s

0ph0rce0

Lucky 15 with

1.30 Ayr
Shanroe Society

1.50 Newbury
Model Pupil

2.20 Newbury- Spring Cup
Educate

4.05 Newbury
Kyllachy Rise



And A lump On Educate.

longshotvalue

2:20 Newbury Spring Cup

Minefield of a race so near the start of the flat season so ill try a few and big odds for min bets..

Invisible Hunter looked a decent prospect when winning a Sandown maiden first time out last year, he was poor after but has been gelded and might be worth a min bet at huge odds here of what could be a decent mark of 91.

Memory Cloth is one I’ve earmarked as going to win on of these at some stage this year and although he was poor enough in the Lincoln , he is down another couple of pounds here and is back below his last winning mark. He is at a huge price on Betfair and ill have to have a min bet.

½ Point win Invisible Hunter 46 Betfair
½ Point win Memory Cloth 60 Betfair

SRFC

That is a minefield today 8 meetings :eek: bookies benefit very likely,Cecil should have a few winners today.

fangee

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Still available at 8s

Not where I live dude.

I'm just lucky if I get on.

Have had to go with ACCESSION at 40's as 5/1 on EDUCATE is too short. That B*stard pricewise.

I also like LIVELY BARON at 25/1 in the Scottish National.

richiebceltic

Backed educate in the 2:20. Hope you're right Rossom!

Gringo180

Norse Blues E.W in the 2.20 at Newbury for me, currently 16/1.

carmanard

Backed educate in the 2.20 & desert image in the Fred Darling, shotavodka in the Scottish "champion" hurdle & mister marker in the Scottish national, I reckon they're all well enough treated by the conditions of their respective races

droidman123

Did relax @33-1 in the scot national. Heres hoping.

Cantonesque

Nice book of rides for Barry Geraghty today. Fancy his chances of getting at least a treble.

Fortify looked very good the last day and expect a strong performance today at Naas.

Slattsy

1.50 Newbury Noble Mission

Well ahead on ratings here, and though Model Pupil has the benefit of a run (win) already this season, I just think NM will have too much class for this lot.
He could well turn into a Group 1 animal this year and i cant say that about any of the others.

UrbanSea

Couldn't disagree more Slattsy, Nobel Mission is exposed as a gr.2 horse. Think Model Pupil could be an Irish Leger horse, this trip may well be as short as he wants but looks progressive

Slattsy

Oh its on like Donkey Kong!

jimjamcos

Noble Mission seemed a quirky horse last year. If Henry has ironed out some of them, he wins!

Slattsy

Found nothing

Shane732

Christ what happened there?!

jimjamcos

Fuck me, he flattered to deceive there!

droidman123

Shane732 wrote: »

Christ what happened there?!

Shocker of a run from guarentee.

Shane732

Slattsy wrote: »

Found nothing

Looked like he wasn't going to need to find anything... Almost stopped in front.

Slattsy

If Queally could ride that again i'd say he'd hold onto him an awful lot longer. He started going on again after the horses went past him.
Best horse in the race, just a dosser!

Overthelast

Having a crack at these two today.


Educate. No surprise there. Never mind pricewise, I just follow Rossom.

I don't generally even attempt a write up here (not my forte & the quality of the other regulars here sets the bar high) but I'lll take a chance today. I take a keen interest in new novice hurdlers from france, and especially when they are put into small runner fields for their first race. One such race was run last October in Aintree, with a horse I highly rate Clondaw Kaempfer winning impressively. Funny Star ran well behind him (giving weight) that day for his first run in the UK. These young horses take a while to settle into a new yard so that was a great run imo as I think a lot of Clondaw Kaempfer having followed him since his bumper win. He may have had a setback & did not appear on track again until a couple of weeks ago where he was set, imo, an impossible ask being fired into such a competitive race at Aintree's big festival against such experienced rivals. He ran up with the pace & jumped well for approx 1m 6f, then dropped away quickly before being pulled up. I'm putting that down to lack of race fitness. While not an easy task today, I think this is much more like it against 10 largely exposed rivals. I just feel he has so much scope for improvement. If I've mis-read this, I'll put my hands up & scratch him from my list of ponies to follow but 14/1 looks rather big to me & I'm having a ew on Funny Star in the 4.25 at Ayr today & might wrap him in a small ew double with Educate.

Best of luck today lads.

Slattsy

If Tap Night runs to his Aintree form he should win this.
Has won at this track a few times already.

I wont be backing anything in this race though.

UrbanSea

Don't think I could have fancied Guarantee any less. Model Pupil will probably excel over another two furlongs

Overthelast

Slattsy wrote: »

If Tap Night runs to his Aintree form he should win this.
Has won at this track a few times already.

I wont be backing anything in this race though.

Sam Twiston Davis. I thought he would win

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

Sam Twiston Davis. I thought he would win

Horlix'd the last. Feel sorry for him.

droidman123

Overthelast wrote: »

Horlix'd the last. Feel sorry for him.

Its sam waley cohan i feel sorry for, all the unwarrented abuse he gets.

Slattsy

No huge fancy in the next at Newbury.
I know 99.9% of ye will be on Educate though

One i like at a working mans price is Norse Blues at 14/1. Best fresh he's been obviously laid our for this and i think he'll run well.

Overthelast

droidman123 wrote: »

Its sam waley cohan i feel sorry for, all the unwarrented abuse he gets.

True, but with initials of STD, you must at least have some sympathy for Sam?

UrbanSea

What happened?

Overthelast

UrbanSea wrote: »

What happened?

He was upsides at the last, kinda ploughed into it and fell off. Looked the winner imo

UrbanSea

Guest of Honour done at 1.1 in running

jimjamcos

Sadface.

Overthelast

jimjamcos wrote: »

Sadface.

That was your ew double.

jimjamcos

Overthelast wrote: »

That was your ew double.

And a single. Just couldn't see him out of the picture. That's racing though.

Rock Lesnar

off topic here but Where oh where is Jim McGrath, That cunningham lad on 4 is really doing my head in today, even more so then he did at cheltenham :mad:

Slattsy

Educate at 4/1 in a handicap was lunacy. Fair enough anyone that got the 7s or 8s but you'd wanna be mad backing a horse at that price in such a competitive race like that.


Grumeti here at Ayr is worth a bet i reckon.

Rock Lesnar

Ifandbutwhynot in the next at ayr.

C'mon Timmy, could be the start of a good hour