Scottish Grand National 2013

JP Liz V1

The 2013 Coral Scottish Grand National takes place this Saturday (20th April)
at Ayr with thirty-seven runners expected to tackle the 4m 110y course.
The sponsors current favourite is Rival d’Estruval at odds of 6/1.
2013 John Smiths Grand National Winner Auororas Encore is expected to run
and is currently 12/1 with most bookmakers

I going throw a few bob e/w on Nuts N Bolts and Neptune Equester

Morgans

Rival D'estruval is solid, but at bigger prices....

Auroras Encrore is 20/1 with Corals. I think that is too big a price. The one I liked for the race for a long time was Quentin Collonges, but he has come out of it.

That they are going to Ayr and not Sandown with Aurora's seems strange, given the handicapping differences. BUt he was well handicapped at Aintree, has run well in the race before, is in form, loves the ground, likes the course, this time of year. 20/1 is too big.

Garleton is the type of horse that runs well in the race (not unlike Aurora's Encore) and 40/1 is too big for him. Maybe missed the boat at 12, but will be in the firing line for a long way. Will be looking at place markets to see whats the best angle.

longshotvalue

Scottish Grand National

I’m having a bit of difficulty coming up with anything here but I’m going to start with a min bet on an old favourite of mine Knockara Beau. He is a huge price here and although he hasn’t been at his best this year one thing that is for certain he’s no 60/1 shot. If he gets around here at all he is capable of plugging on at the end past a lot of horses here and has a touch of class that most of the field doesn’t . He was poor here last year but in fairness that was after a very good run in the Gold Cup and he may not have had much left to give. He fell this year at the festival and hasn’t run since. That will hopefully give him a chance of performing here.

½ Point win ½ Point Place Betfair 60/12.5


I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Silver by Nature improve dramatically from his comeback run after a 2 year break. He won the Haydock National in great style of 4 lbs. higher a few years ago, and if the ground softens at all it will be to his advantage. I’m hoping that he has been prepared with this race in mind and he looks worth a min risk at 50/1 on Betfair.

½ Point win ½ Point place Betfair 50/10

longshotvalue

Scottish National



Going through the race again Problematic sticks out a bit as a bit of value having come down a decent few pounds in the weights for his last few runs. He won at this meeting last year in a novice chase and appears to prefer decent ground. Usually horses that race up with the pace do well in this race and I’m hopeful that will be the plan today. His last run at Aintree was decent behind Battlegroup and 33 on Betfair looks a bit of value.

½ Point win 33 Betfair

MoscowFlyer

Knocknacara Beau is the one I quite fancy at a biggish price

mailburner

I'm on rival destruval at 9s (bet365)

I'd have left it at 6or7s but that looks
a decent price

Rock Lesnar

Rival D'estruval for me, on at 8-1

Harry Angstrom

It's a pity Aurora's Encore didn't jump like a drain over the Grand National fences at Aintree two weeks ago the way he jumped like a drain over regulation fences at Ayr today. I still can't figure out how a donkey like that could win the National.

Morgans

Horse got badly interfered with by the fallers at the second fence. Given a great ride to get into some form of contention on the final circuit but race didnt pan out for a horse that likes to be up with the pace. Lots of horses lost their race at the start.

droidman123

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It's a pity Aurora's Encore didn't jump like a drain over the Grand National fences at Aintree two weeks ago the way he jumped like a drain over regulation fences at Ayr today. I still can't figure out how a donkey like that could win the National.

There are plenty of "donkeys" that have won that circus of a race over the years. Its a farce of a race,always has been.

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

It's a pity Aurora's Encore didn't jump like a drain over the Grand National fences at Aintree two weeks ago the way he jumped like a drain over regulation fences at Ayr today. I still can't figure out how a donkey like that could win the National.

Great intelligent comment from someone who hasnt a clue about racing, or is talking from the pocket. It was always going to be difficult to run his race again so soon after that run with his extra weight etc.. In fairness he wasnt a total donkey, as he was a very good second in the scottish version last year of a higher mark..

sting60

The facts are concerning the last ten winners of the National failed to win a handicap again in their jumping careers.The argument is twofold either they are knackered or the average 10lb hike is to much for their ability.What can be said is that some retired or went hurdling but the fact remains they failed to win again.

Morgans

You have to be well handicapped to win a national. Winning it once means that you arent going to be as well handicapped to win it again.

Most national winners are given campaigns that centre around the grand national and are trained to peak at Aintree. Hedgehunter finished second in a gold cup after winning a national. The idea that he couldnt have won another race if thats what connections valued is silly. It was the fact that they were aiming at winning the National again that stopped them. Winning a second grand national has been done by three horses in 120 years.

remember when you couldnt win the national with over 11 stone. Ah, dogma. Makes everything easy.

Harry Angstrom

aidankkk wrote: »

Great intelligent comment from someone who hasnt a clue about racing, or is talking from the pocket. It was always going to be difficult to run his race again so soon after that run with his extra weight etc.. In fairness he wasnt a total donkey, as he was a very good second in the scottish version last year of a higher mark..

So, I suppose you had the mortgage on Aurora's Encore in the Grand National then? :rolleyes:

If you went back through their form, you could make a case for the vast majority of the Grand National field to win the race, after the race has taken place, of course :rolleyes:, if you isolated one or two runs. The same way people could make a case for Mon Mome winning the race at 100/1 a few years back, but hey, after-timing is a great pastime for some, isn't it?

Johner

Aidan put up Aurora's Encore before the national at 100/1.

longshotvalue

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

So, I suppose you had the mortgage on Aurora's Encore in the Grand National then? :rolleyes:

If you went back through their form, you could make a case for the vast majority of the Grand National field to win the race, after the race has taken place, of course :rolleyes:, if you isolated one or two runs. The same way people could make a case for Mon Mome winning the race at 100/1 a few years back, but hey, after-timing is a great pastime for some, isn't it?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=84014458&postcount=164

Harry Angstrom

Print it out and stick it on your living room wall.

hawkeyethenoo

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Print it out and stick it on your living room wall.

what a bitter man you are. :rolleyes: in tears cause your €1 ew bet lost. if you cant take the loses dont bet and dont come on here whinging about it you girly man.

Harry Angstrom

Nah. I don't think I'll take any advice from somebody who thinks he's a horse.

MyStubbleItches

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Print it out and stick it on your living room wall.

Wow. Now that's sad.

mailburner

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

If you went back through their form, you could make a case for the vast majority of the Grand National field to win the race, after the race has taken place, of course :rolleyes:, if you isolated one or two runs. The same way people could make a case for Mon Mome winning the race at 100/1 a few years back, but hey, after-timing is a great pastime for some, isn't it?

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the groutch

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Nah. I don't think I'll take any advice from somebody who thinks he's a horse.

or someone who thinks he's a fictional kitchen gadget salesman.