Wednesday 17th April

UrbanSea

Brilliant day's racing tomorrow between Cheltenham and Newmarket. Enough to get the most impotent excited (Richie Lawlor)


Going to see if I can get bigger than 9/4 Houblon des Obeaux

3ndahalfof6

CHELTENHAM 3:20 TROP FORT 20/1 should be in the mix, will be going strong @ the end, if not hampered I would not be surprised to see it finishing well in front.

rossom

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

CHELTENHAM 3:20 TROP FORT 20/1 should be in the mix, will be going strong @ the end, if not hampered I would not be surprised to see it finishing well in front.

This one caught my eye as well. Hoping it takes a drift tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Actually not having a bet going to join the golf club.

Would be keen enough to take on Sky Lantern and there are a few in that race I wouldn't fancy to have trained on. Pushed for a choice I'd say Waterway Run is a filly to keep on your right side.

Niallers87

What are peoples thoughts on Puffin Billy in the first tomorrow surely he should get back to winning ways here?

3ndahalfof6

rossom wrote: »

This one caught my eye as well. Hoping it takes a drift tomorrow.

I fired some on it EW, but I am surprised to see you think it will expand, I think it will take out the ftse, get on global marish.

3ndahalfof6

Niallers87 wrote: »

What are peoples thoughts on Puffin Billy in the first tomorrow surely he should get back to winning ways here?

Well I would be punting on WHISPER , no reason it should not be there @ the end, conditions play a big part and the conditions seem to be right, I just hope the jockey does the racer justice.

Colonel Sanders

1.86 Puffin Billy. Think The Sportinglife had him 9/4 on their tissue :rolleyes:

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

1.86 Puffin Billy. Think The Sportinglife had him 9/4 on their tissue :rolleyes:

They'd also Ackertac in at 15/8

Niallers87

Do you think sporting life are pricing him up too short, hes 5/6 with bet 365? evens at powers

longshotvalue

Wednesday 17/4

2:45 Cheltenham

I’m going with an outsider I’ve sided with a few times before with a bit of success in Fredo here. The extended trip and decent ground should really suit him. He actually has a very decent course record usually running well and is down to what looks a very good mark. Although he was poor last time out, he ran a very good race here over too short a trip in a better race off 8lbs higher and any reproduction of that run will give him a great chance here.


1 Point EW 20/1 Various

3:55 Cheltenham

Ghizao was disappointing in the Ryanair but I’m not sure there is a lot between him and the Favourite Champion Court here apart from that last poor run. Conditions look to be in his favour and he is getting a nice bit of weight from the top 2 here. He has run well this year a couple of times particularly finishing well in the Ascot Chase on softer ground than ideal. It’s more of a gut feeling selection that this race could well suit him, and 8/1 looks a bit of value.


1 Point win 8/1 Paddy Power

3:20 Cheltenham

Minella Class is possibly down to a mark he can work off after a few poor runs this year. He seemed to go wrong last time out and I’m hoping that his 2 month break since might just spark a mini revival, and if it does I want to be there with a min bet at a huge looking price. He obviously is well handicapped on his best form having been a grade 1 winner, and I’ll take it as a bit of a sign that he remains with Henderson. He’s worth a small risk on Betfair.


½ Point win 38 ½ point place @ 8.2 Betfair.

rossom

Will be keeping my powder dry until Saturday if none of these come in but I'll be having a very, very serious bet on Educate at the weekend.

2.35 Beverley

Wyldfire 9/2

I was was very impressed with the way this 3 year old got going in the final stages to win his Maiden earlier this month despite being green and I definitely think he can make a successful handicap debut off a mark of 71. After showing quite a bit of abilty on his first two starts as a 2 year old (bombed out on his final start at this course which is a slight worry) he was gelded prior to making a winning debut as a 3 year old where the application of a hood seemed to help him settle as he got off the mark at the 4th attempt. Upped to 9f at Redcar at the start of the month, Wyldfire took on a field that consisted predominantly of elders where he sat in about 5th or 6th for most of the journey. After being scrubbed along at the 3f pole, he actually looked as if he was going to be comprehensively beaten 2.5f out as he dropped back to 8th but the penny seemed to drop very late and he really got going in the final furlong to score by a comfortable neck under today's jockey Lee Topliss in a race that has worked out well. The 2nd and 4th have put in solid efforts in handicaps off marks of 69 and 65 respectively whilst the 3rd Big Johnny D ran out a comfortable scorer of a Maiden at Newcastle on Sunday. It was very encouraging to see him make up a fair bit of ground in the final furlong and he is very much a horse who is still learning his craft. He makes his handicap debut off a mark of 71 against fellow 3 year olds today and based on the form shown in 3 of his Maidens he looks on a more than fair mark. Moreover, he very much looks like the sort of horse who will improve significantly with racing and I have no doubt that there is quite a bit more to come. Lee Topliss again takes the ride having given him a great ride to score earlier this month and he is full value for his 3lb claim. With the hood retained and sure to appreciate the better going and extra furlong, I think Wyldfire has an excellent chance of winning this contest for the bang in form Richard Fahey who took this contest last year with Sparkling Portrait who has since gone on to improve 24lb and land a Listed contest.



2.45 Cheltenham

Hunters Lodge 7/1

Nigel Twiston-Davies's first season chaser looks a thorough out and out stayer to me and I think this nicely progressing and very consistent 7 year old looks set to run a very big race off a mark of 127. An average hurdler at best, the switch to fences has been the making of Hunters Lodge who has won 3 of his 6 starts over the larger obstacles since making his debut in this sphere last September. After making a successful chasing debut in a handicap off a mark of 107 at Market Rasen, Hunters Lodge was rather fortuitous to make it 2-2 over fences when landing a competitive Amateur Riders Handicap at Cheltenham over an extended 3m in October off a mark of 115. Having been outpaced coming to 3 out, he was given a very enterprising ride by Ryan Hatch to take the lead 2 out and was probably just headed by Romanesco who looked sure to win but he fell at the last which allowed Hunters Lodge to take full advantage. Romanseco was clearly a well handicapped horse who has gone on to finish 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival off a 12lb higher mark so a defeat wouldn't blotted his copybook much. Hunters Lodge returned to Cheltenham over that same C+D for another large field Amateur Riders Handicap off a mark of 122 where he ran another blinder to beaten a little over 4L in 3rd. As has become a characteristic of his performances, Hunters Lodge was badly outpaced at 3 out and dropped back in the field to be out 15L off the pace before staying on powerfully late on and he grabbed 3rd as he finished like a train. Again, that race is very strong form with the winner Swing Bill (who won the same race the year before) running a blinder in the Topham off an 8lb higher mark on his next outing whilst the runner up Sizing Santiago was successful next time out off a 3lb higher mark. Hunters Lodge's next two starts came off marks off 123 at Newbury over 27f and Doncaster over 3 miles where he again looked to be struggling badly before staying on strongly late on but he ran out a comfortable winner off a mark of 121 in first time blinkers LTO in what was probably a bit of a Mickey Mouse contest last month at Uttoxeter over 3m on heavy going.

In a 4 runner field, Hunters Lodge was prominent throughout and after hitting his traditional flat spot approaching 4 out and looking held he was fully in command jumping 3 out and went on to score by 19L from 3 very tired rivals. Although the runner up was successful on his only subsequent start, I don't think you can read too much into the form and luckily the handicapper hasn't overreacted by only upping him 6lb to a mark of 127. Tomorrow a first time visor replaces the blinkers and I'm hoping the new headgear has the same effect as he definitely seemed to appreciate the blinkers. He should absolutely love the step up to an extended 3m4f as he looks as if he'll stay all day and he seems to be fine on any going. Despite having to shoulder top weight, it signifies he's the best horse in the race on official ratings and the last 4 runnings of this have gone to horses carrying 11-7 or more so it clearly seems that the better horses will come to the fore. In addition to the step up in trip, he should definitely appreciate the return to Cheltenham as he has gone very well on both starts at the track and course form is a massive positive in a race like this. Moreover, he's proven himself in large field like this before and seems to enjoy the challenges of a big handicap like this. Sam Twiston-Davies again takes the ride and he seems to get on with the horse well which is very important given he isn't a straightforward ride and he'll definitely get a good tune out of him. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has his horses in decent enough nick at present and despite having to defy a career high mark and top weight I'm sure Hunters Lodge will run his usual game race. You'd probably be better off going each way in a race of this nature to be sure and I'd be very surprised if he was out of the frame. However, I do feel he has a great chance of landing this contest and I'm hoping he can do just that at what I feel is a more than fair price.

rossom

3.20 Cheltenham

Trop Fort 20/1

I really liked the way Trop Fort travelled on his seasonal reappearance for the Welsh Champion Hurdle before fading very badly and if improving for the run, return to a sound surface and the application of a tongue tie help him out then I think he could play a really big role in this. Formerly with David Pipe where he looked out completely out of sorts, the change of scenery completely revitalised this 6 year old as he was an impressive winner on both his starts for Tim Vaughan last summer in Novice Hurdles. The first he won by 6L when driven to score decisively last July on stable debut at Market Rasen (average form) but he undoubtedly improved again to win a much better race back in August. Having made virtually all, Trop Fort's task was made a lot easier when his nearest pursuer Ahyaknowyourself fell at 2 out (Trop Fort looked to have mastered him) and from then on he always had the race won as he went on to score comfortably by 4L. Ahyaknowyourself has gone on to win a handicap off a mark of 124 subsequently and adds substance to the form of Trop Fort. That was Trop Fort's last outing last summer and despite being beaten 43L on his last start in the Welsh Champion Hurdle he ran a much, much better race than that. On his first start for 182 days in atrocious conditions when extremely weak in the market (66/1 shot), Trop Fort made his first start in a handicap for Tim Vaughan off a mark of 134 back in February where he travelled extremely well for an awful long way. Sitting prominent throughout, Trop Fort came into the home straight in the leading line and looked as if he was going to play a massive role in the finish before he looked to get very tired as he finished a well beaten 9th. If attributing him falling away like a stone to either needing his seasonal reappearance, getting tired in the very heavy going or perhaps a breathing problem (or even a combination of all 3) then the result looks so much better than the bare form suggests and I'm certainly willing to give him another chance now dropped 2lb to a mark of 132. Sure to come on an awful lot for run and appreciate the better conditions, I think its very interesting to see a first time tongue tie applied as a breathing issue could easily be prevalent given how he went from travelling extremely well to out on his feet very quickly at Ffos Las a couple of months ago. If he does indeed have a breathing issue which the tongue tie alleviates, I think he could surprise quite a few people and finish off his race much better as the excellent Richard Johnson takes the ride. Although risks clearly come attached, if he's able to finish off his race today I think he's feasibly handicapped to win this and although he could easily finish well beaten I won't be at all surprised if he wins this pretty well.

4.05 Newmarket

Sound Of Guns 14/1 (saver on Hot Snap 12/1)

I'm a big fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly Sound Of Guns who I have followed since her debut and if staying her first try at 7f I think she is going to be bang there at the finish. After making an eye catching debut, Sound Of Guns won her Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen to good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Rosdhu Queen, who is now unbeaten in 4, has subsequently gone on to win both her subsequent starts including the Group 1 Cheveley stakes and if she stays 1m she is definitely my idea of the 1,000 Guineas winner at the moment. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot showing really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. The excellent Ed Walker has reported that she is in great form at home and has grown very well physically over the winter and if she stays 7f then I think she has a much better chance than her price suggests. In what isn't an overly strong looking Nell Gwyn, Sound Of Guns should find it easier back against her own sex today and I'm very confident of a really big run representing her in form yard. Luke Morris, who was on board when runner up to Rosdhu Queen, takes the ride again and I think Sound Of Guns brings some really strong form to this race and I'm confident she's going to run a massive, massive race.

I will have a saver on Sir Henry Cecil's Hot Snap who could be absolutely anything having won on her debut at Kempton over 1m last September. A rare debutant juvenile winner for Sir Henry Cecil nowadays, Hot Snap is a well bred half sister to the yards excellent Midday and she knuckled down really well to score by 0.5L despite being restless prior to the race. Although that bare form wouldn't be anywhere near enough to win this, anything that wins on debut as a 2 year old is always well above average and Hot Snaps breeding and entries (Guineas and Oaks) suggest she is well thought of at home and she isn't being pitched in at this level on just her 2nd start for no reason. The complete unknown in the field, Hot Snap could be just about anything and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if she turned out to be very smart and won this.

kiers47

UrbanSea wrote: »

Actually not having a bet going to join the golf club.

Would be keen enough to take on Sky Lantern and there are a few in that race I wouldn't fancy to have trained on. Pushed for a choice I'd say Waterway Run is a filly to keep on your right side.

Just wondering your reason for taking on sky lantern urban? To me she seems the obvious 1 group1 winner desperately unlucky last time. 3/1 could look silly later. I don't know really I think there are question marks over all of them but I think she has the least amount in question.

ste2010

Funnily enough just posting similar selections as Aidan

Whisper 4-1
Ghizao (NAP) 8-1
Minella class 33-1

ste2010

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

Well I would be punting on WHISPER , no reason it should not be there @ the end, conditions play a big part and the conditions seem to be right, I just hope the jockey does the racer justice.

I think good ground will help whisper here. Strong form behind at fishers cross and the new one. Never really fancied puffin billy stepping up in trip and think for the second time this season his short price fav position will let him down. Whisper at 4-1 is way more appealing

bestleftfull3

just got a tip for gretzky in the 19:50 in dundalk tonight finished very strongly the last day against other two rivals and only up 2 pounds which he shoould overcome

barney4001

menorah and mr mole look good enough today cheltenham

UrbanSea

kiers47 wrote: »

Just wondering your reason for taking on sky lantern urban? To me she seems the obvious 1 group1 winner desperately unlucky last time. 3/1 could look silly later. I don't know really I think there are question marks over all of them but I think she has the least amount in question.

It could prove to look very big alright but I'd always air with a side of caution toward fillies from 2-3 plus I think it was a weak bunch of 2 year olds last year. That Moyglare she won looks really below par, the runner up was beaten easily next time at Newmarket (way behind Nargys) and was readily beaten in a maiden the other day. Third horse has is closely matched to My Special J's who has done nothing since and a half a length behind her was Magical Dream who is a grp 3 mare


I know she got to a length of Certify but don't think that was her at her very best on her second start. Even the Listed race she won at Naas has a maiden in second and I don't think her defeat by Ollie Olga is anywhere near top form don't think she had excuses that day. I also can't think of many Red Clubs that go on to excel at three. She may well win but it's a very fair price and I wouldn't be a backer

sting60

4.20 Beverly Last Bid 25/1.This is a former listed winner who has gone sour late last year [maybe to much racing].If the winter break has done her good she will run a big race.New 4.05 Hot Snap 14/1 this is the horse Cecil gave as his horse to follow for this year.A horse i was given that was all the rage at the breeze up and was bought by George Margarson runs today Jammy Guest.He was one of my 2yr olds to watch but he never ran .Todays price of 7/2 looks short but its a long way from Ayr to Newmarket for fresh air.

Gringo180

Toss up between Lady Nouf & Light Up My Life in the Nell Gwyn for me today, slightly edging towards Willie Haggas's fiilly as I am sure I read somewhere that he stated his 3yo fillies will be flying the flag for his yard this year.

djone349

trop fort 3.20 is now 40/1 with william hill

realgolfgeek

Yankee first 4 races in Cheltenham.

Puffin Billy 4/6
Top Dancer 11/1
Clerks Choice 13/2
Hunt Ball 7/2

Johner

Big drift but I think Puffin Billy is now value at 6/5.

ste2010

Dutching Abnaki and imperial circus in this one

rossom

I've had another couple of bets on Trop Fort at 40s and Sound Of Guns at 22s

manarocket

UrbanSea wrote: »

Brilliant day's racing tomorrow between Cheltenham and Newmarket. Enough to get the most impotent excited (Richie Lawlor)


Going to see if I can get bigger than 9/4 Houblon des Obeaux

Agree with this great chance.

Luap

Wyldfires price into 7/2 in last couple mins.

shy-tall-knight

Back to the drawing board for Puffin Billy's connections, disappointing end to the season for a horse who looked to have bags of potential before Christmas.

realgolfgeek

3.30 Newmarket

I've gone with Ayaar @ 16/1 e/w

Gringo180

realgolfgeek wrote: »

3.30 Newmarket

I've gone with Ayaar @ 16/1 e/w

Went with Lucky Begger @20's myself, best of luck.

UrbanSea

Ended up having a small each way on Birdman in the 3.30 at Newmarket 16/1. Was a really smart two year old early on, beaten a head over this trip by the high class Olympic Glory who was runner up to New Approach in the Coventry and won the Gr.1 on Arc day. Rating of 105 having being gelded after Racing Post trophy. Type to train on too, by Danehill Dancer out of a three year old winner, looked overpriced in an open race

sting60

manarocket wrote: »

Agree with this great chance.

Jumping has to improve big time.Pipes is the likely winner.

realgolfgeek

Garswood was very impressive to say the least !!!

UrbanSea

He hacked up

shy-tall-knight

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Back to the drawing board for Puffin Billy's connections, disappointing end to the season for a horse who looked to have bags of potential before Christmas.

Was Puffin Billy euthanized post race? Was making tea and just heard the end of a sentence on RUK "sad for all Puffin Billy's connections". Shame if that's the case and tough for Oliver Sherwood.

TheMilkyPirate

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Was Puffin Billy euthanized post race? Was making tea and just heard the end of a sentence on RUK "sad for all Puffin Billy's connections". Shame if that's the case and tough for Oliver Sherwood.

No just returned very lame.

realgolfgeek

4.05 NewMarket Hot Snap 10/1 e/w

UrbanSea

Luca Cumani posted this on his facebook, seems confident


Abilene, a daughter of Samum from the family of Andromeda Galaxy, should put in a decent effort in a weak maiden at Kempton later on today. She's our first runner for the Wildenstein stable and we're hoping she'll reward us with a win first time out

Gringo180

UrbanSea wrote: »

Luca Cumani posted this on his facebook, seems confident


Abilene, a daughter of Samum from the family of Andromeda Galaxy, should put in a decent effort in a weak maiden at Kempton later on today. She's our first runner for the Wildenstein stable and we're hoping she'll reward us with a win first time out

Jockey booking would turn me off that mate, although in saying that it is an extremely poor race.

TheMilkyPirate

Ghizao here for me and nargys in the next

UrbanSea

Menorah done at 1.03, looked like Champion Court was going to be done having gone to 1.08

Johner

I had Menorah. :rolleyes: Drifted like a barge and was flat out the whole way. Thought he had it coming to the last. Gutted.

realgolfgeek

realgolfgeek wrote: »

4.05 NewMarket Hot Snap 10/1 e/w

GET IN

UrbanSea

She must be a really good filly, I wouldn't have backed her over anything less than 10 furlongs. Did it really nicely

A single euro matched at 150 on her, is someone really that desperate for one quid??

TheMilkyPirate

12s for the oaks, I'm on

sting60

Had 100e on that filly at 14/1.Look at early post.

SM746

Well advised saver Rossom. Hot Snap win the 405 at 11/1.

rossom

Finally something goes in with my saver! Very, very impressive performance and absolutely throws herself into both the Guineas and Oaks reckoning.

Sound Of Guns couldn't have had a rougher race. Still looked to be travelling full of running (despite a very rough passage) and waiting for a gap to appear she got a huge bump which ended her chances. Was rather impressed with the way she made her way into the race despite being keen and roughed around a bit and she still looks a filly with a very bright future.

faoile@n

sting60 wrote: »

Had 100e on that filly at 14/1.Look at early post.

Nice aftertiming :rolleyes:

dvcireland

rossom wrote: »

Finally something goes in with my saver! Very, very impressive performance and absolutely throws herself into both the Guineas and Oaks reckoning.

Sound Of Guns couldn't have had a rougher race. Still looked to be travelling full of running (despite a very rough passage) and waiting for a gap to appear she got a huge bump which ended her chances. Was rather impressed with the way she made her way into the race despite being keen and roughed around a bit and she still looks a filly with a very bright future.

about Hot Snap before race, thats some fact finding mission

Teddy Grimthorpe, Abdullah's racing manager, said: "This is a fact-finding mission. We rate her, but this is a step up from a maiden.

"Henry is pleased with her. She's a good type who has done very well over the winter."