Tuesday April 16th

rossom

A couple for me tomorrow. I'll pop up write ups later on

4.00 Kempton Buxom 22/1
5.55 Fairyhouse Rockyaboya 6/1

the groutch

yeah Rockyaboya looks like he still has a bit more before the hadicapper catches up with him.

ste2010

What do people make of unika l'reconce going to Kempton tomorrow?

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

What do people make of unika l'reconce going to Kempton tomorrow?

Definitely interesting as its a decent pot. Could be anything but there is no doubt in my mind that Buxom is a well handicapped horse and I'd rather side with her at the price.

rossom

4.00 Kempton

Buxom 22/1

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Jamie Snowden's 6 year old is a well handicapped horse off a mark of 114 and I only hope that she's good enough in this very competitive looking Mares Listed Handicap. Formerly with Oliver Sherwood, Buxom showed some very useful form in bumpers as she won both her first two career starts in good fashion (the latter under a penalty in game battling fashion with the front two pulling 20L clear). In the 2nd bumper, the runner up Whichever has shown some nice form over hurdles including when finishing a 11L beaten 4th behind the talented Baby Shine (2nd and 3rd rated 124 and 116 respectively) and she followed that up with an very good 2nd behind the excellent Tante Sissi. Buxom had two more runs for Oliver Sherwood - both in Listed Bumpers - where she ran with great credit on the first occasion running out a very nice 5th. After this, she joined Jamie Snowden where she has had four starts over hurdles - the first being a very eventful affair indeed! On the back of a 6 month absence, Buxom was sent off an odds on shot for her hurdling debut in what looks a pretty moderate affair in what turned out to be a very eventful race. She would have undoubtedly won easily but she saw the paddock entrance and jumped violently left handed at her last two flights and forfeited about 15L. She went down fighting by 1L in the end but those quirks seemed to have been ironed out. Her next start over hurdles came when she was pitched in against two hurdling debutants who had both won Listed bumpers (Call Me A Star reopposes tomorrow) and despite being beaten 22L it very much looked to me as if she was just out for the spin. In very testing conditions that wouldn't have suited, Buxom took up the running at 5 out, Buxom was headed at 3 out by Call Me A Star and Tom O'Brien did not try to go with the new leader and allowed her to come home in her own time. I'm not for a second saying she could or would have won but she certainly could have finished a lot closer and meets that rival on 20lb better terms (when taking into account Brendan Powell's claim) and I certainly think that could be enough to turn the tables.

Buxom undoubtedly put in a career best when going down by a short head 2 starts back on her handicap debut off a mark of 108 when bumping into a very progressive and well handicapped horse but I think she was given a poor tactical ride by Tom O'Brien that day and I strongly believe she should have won. Over 17f at Taunton on soft ground, Buxom was held up at the back of the field and travelled and jumped well throughout the contest. Heading into the home straight, Tom O'Brien stalked the eventual winner still travelling ominously well and he let Queens Grove get first run on him as she was 3L clear jumping the 2nd last. Despite this, O'Brien only nudged Buxom to keep tabs on the winner and jumping the last he was a little under two lengths down before he got serious with her. Although she did pick up, she met a very game rival that day who just wouldn't give in and she eventually went down by a very narrow margin as she couldn't get there in time. If Buxom was asked to pick up sooner, there is no doubt in my mind she would have won but the form of that race is very, very strong. The winner Queens Grove won her next two races in impressive fashion with the last of those coming off a 15lb higher mark by a comfortable 10L and Buxom clearly ran a blinder with the front two drawing well clear of the field. Upped 6lb for that effort to her current mark of 114, Buxom's final start came when stepped up to 20f at Doncaster where she appeared desperately disappointing when pulled up but her trainer reported that she had come into season and resultantly you can put a big line through that run. With the valid discarding of her last start, Buxom's last piece of readable form came behind a very progressive and well handicapped mare and off a 6lb higher mark I certainly think she looks on a very nice mark.

Buxom has been off the track for 108 days with this race clearly in mind which was even highlighted as her main target before she had even jumped a hurdle by Snowden last year and in a race where the trainer had the 4th home in Miss Millborne last season. She comes here thoroughly unexposed over hurdles on just her 2nd start in a handicap and I am 100% sure she is better than her mark. However, the race is full of similarly unexposed and progressive types and, given the large pot, there are sure to be a few on good marks so you've just got to hope she's well enough in. Although she has not gone past 17f in completed starts, I feel that the step up to 2m5f will suit as she has shaped like she will appreciate the extra distance on a couple of occasions and her two half siblings are 3m P2P winners which gives a strong case to her seeing out the trip from a breeding perspective. Additionally, I think she should definitely appreciate the return to the forecast sounder surface and I expect her to improve for the better ground conditions. I'm very happy to see the hugely talented Brendan Powell Jnr take the ride and he is worth every ounce and more of his 3lb claim which gives Buxom a lovely racing weight of 10-4. The race is clearly loaded with a multitude of dangers in what looks a very hot little Mares contest but I'm very happy taking 22/1 about a lowly weight horse who I feel is well handicapped. Jamie Snowden has his string in OK if not fantastic form at present and there I am sure Buxom will be absolutely spot on for this. Although it will take a really good performance, I can't see any reason why Buxom can't give one and off a mark that I think is extremely workable I'm hoping she can land this very nice prize.

5.55 Fairyhouse

Rockyaboya 6/1

Willie Mullins's relatively unexposed 9 year old comes here in great form having won his last two races and despite a 9lb rise I think he looks to be still ahead of the handicapper and should be hard to beat. Now owned by Willie's son Patrick, Rockyaboya has clearly had his issues over the years which has seen him only 13 times under Rules (twice ran in P2P) but those issues clearly seemed to have been ironed out and he looks very much on an upward curve. On the back of an 11 month absence, he scored over 2m4f at Punchestown back in January under his owner to score by a short head off a mark of 107 but he clearly came on a lot for the run when running out an impressive 3.5L winner LTO off a 4lb higher mark over 20f at Navan. Despite sweating up terribly before the race which caused him to drift badly before the off (Mullins reported afterwards he's a hot horse and that can happen) he travelled beautifully into the race having chased a clear leader and took up the running heading into the home straight. Despite several challengers emerging, Patrick sat motionless on his mount exuding confidence and he pushed him to a clear advantage approaching the last. After jumping the last with ears pricked, his jockey had to get serious with him up the home straight but he was always holding his rivals and went on to score in convincing enough fashion. The form of that race was franked very strongly by the runner up Brian Who who went on to score in convincing fashion in a much more competitive race off a 3lb higher mark and Rockyaboya is clearly progressing despite his age. He has been raised 9lb for that effort which seems very fair in light of the runner ups subsequent success and the excellent Declan Lavery gets the leg up tomorrow to claim a very useful 5lb to offset a lot of that penalty. Although this is a slightly better race, its still a pretty weak contest and I definitely feel that Rockyaboya is the one they all have to beat. He's upped to 3m today but won his Maiden over 1f shorter and there is a strong chance he could improve for the extra distance. Although I strongly fancy him to win this, its probably wise to go e/w in this 25 runner field as there could be something well in off a low weight just to be sure. In conditions that should prove no problem, Rockyaboya comes here in very fine form and represents the typically flying Willie Mullins yard and his entry in a Grade B handicap at the Punchestown Festival certainly suggests that connections have high hopes for him and I think he will take a substantial amount of beating in this large but relatively weak enough field.

cson

Jesus, Franchoek is in that 5.55 race.

Even money favourite for the Triumph Hurdle only 3 years ago.

droidman123

cson wrote: »

Jesus, Franchoek is in that 5.55 race.

Even money favourite for the Triumph Hurdle only 3 years ago.

Dont think he was evens, i had it at 7/4 in the day. If they had of left choc on he would of won.mc coy let celestial halo get too far ahead. Anyways, he,s far from the horse he was.

UrbanSea

Don't think it's a day to get too heavily involved with anything. Coole Avenue could be worth a small bet at around 6/1 in a beginner's chase at Fairyhouse. Won two valuable handicap hurdles earlier in the season and looked like he would win last time out over fences, travelling really well before falling 2 out. That means he's fallen on all three starts over fences though (twice fell in 2011) and is clearly risky

cson

droidman123 wrote: »

Dont think he was evens, i had it at 7/4 in the day. If they had of left choc on he would of won.mc coy let celestial halo get too far ahead. Anyways, he,s far from the horse he was.

irishracing.com has him @ SP 1/1s in their results listing of the 2010 renewal of the Triumph.

the groutch

I think it's McCoy's overly agressive riding style that has ruined too many good horses (Black Jack Ketchum, Wichita Lineman)

cson

Not letting you have Wichita Lineman there.

McCoy practically dragged that horse to his win at Cheltenham.

sting60

Southwell 2.10 Glacial Age 6/4.A class 6 maiden and he ran in a listed race last time out.He also get a 9lb median allowance from the 2nd fav.He ran once as a 2yr old and he ran with huge promise with a slight knee action so Southwell should suit.This horse is very much over priced as he should be 1/3.I have invested at 6/4.

ShaneU

sting60 wrote: »

Southwell 2.10 Glacial Age 6/4.A class 6 maiden and he ran in a listed race last time out.He also get a 9lb median allowance from the 2nd fav.He ran once as a 2yr old and he ran with huge promise with a slight knee action so Southwell should suit.This horse is very much over priced as he should be 1/3.I have invested at 6/4.

Won. Tajneed at 3.50 next for me

djone349

sting60 wrote: »

Southwell 2.10 Glacial Age 6/4.A class 6 maiden and he ran in a listed race last time out.He also get a 9lb median allowance from the 2nd fav.He ran once as a 2yr old and he ran with huge promise with a slight knee action so Southwell should suit.This horse is very much over priced as he should be 1/3.I have invested at 6/4.

good shout!

cson

sting60 wrote: »

Southwell 2.10 Glacial Age 6/4.A class 6 maiden and he ran in a listed race last time out.He also get a 9lb median allowance from the 2nd fav.He ran once as a 2yr old and he ran with huge promise with a slight knee action so Southwell should suit.This horse is very much over priced as he should be 1/3.I have invested at 6/4.

Good shout, 11 length win @ SP 8/11.

Great example of a value bet and the benefits to be derived from pricing up a market yourself.

droidman123

cson wrote: »

irishracing.com has him @ SP 1/1s in their results listing of the 2010 renewal of the Triumph.

I will stand corrected on it, but i was sure it was 7/4, my memory is not what it used to be

Johner

The Clyda Rover had to be matched at 999/1 in running. What a finish earlier that was.

I've backed Mullins here at 5/2.

ste2010

No surprise if Polly peachum is laid out for this race..missed the boat possibly

ste2010

ste2010 wrote: »

No surprise if Polly peachum is laid out for this race..missed the boat possibly

Disgusted!!

rossom

Buxom was desperately disappointing. Will be keeping a close eye on Jamie Snowden's page to see if there was a problem as she was too bad to be true.

redarmy

got word for coole avenue 655 fairyhouse...5/1 supposed to be from the owner...:)

rossom

No harm to anyone who went e/w on Rockyaboya but disappointing. Came there swinging on the bridle but didn't pick up in the expected manner and he'll probably be dropped back in trip. Winner today was in behind him the last day.

Inspector Coptoor

Backed rockyaboya to place at just over 2.0 on Betfair.
Squeaked in.

UrbanSea

Willing to lay the fav here I'd be concious about just how much Elliot would want to lose his novice status this late in the year, going to do a small lay to be matched in running at 1.75

UrbanSea

As I typed that he went from 2.08 to 2.36 did he lose a leg

richiebceltic

ste2010 wrote: »

Disgusted!!

what a shout!!! 25/1 winner.

UrbanSea

There's nothing I hate more than not even getting a run for your money. Coole Avenue's name was mentioned once during the whole race. Seriously ****ing hate that

Goldcupfav

UrbanSea wrote: »

There's nothing I hate more than not even getting a run for your money. Coole Avenue's name was mentioned once during the whole race. Seriously ****ing hate that

I only caught the race from halfway. I thought he fell early..

UrbanSea

Finished seventh apparently


in rear throughout,never a factor

richiebceltic

UrbanSea wrote: »

Finished seventh apparently


in rear throughout,never a factor

Fkn hell, when can a guy catch a break!!!