Sindo Millward Brown Poll 13th April '13

Sully

New Millward Brown Poll.. FG 24 (down one point), Lab 12 (up three points), FF 27 (down 2 points), SF 16 (down four points), Ind 18 (up two points).

Interesting poll shows steady support for Fine Gael, Labour on the rebound, Fianna Fail still strong but a bit shakey - remaining most popular party in the state, and Independents doing pretty good also. More bad news for Sinn Fein and their anti-austerity polices and on the day of their Ard Fheis - there support just isn't holding and there all over the place.

Looking at recent polls, if an election was held in the morning, FG & FF would be the winners as per usual while Labour will still receive a big blow. Sinn Fein wont be partying like its 1995 but they will claim a victory anyway. The Independents will be big winners, so if the two main parties cant form a coalition together than I suspect the Independents will have a say.

Its good news for Labour - despite TDs abandoning ship and moaning about their party, support hasn't been hit much on the ground and they got a bit of a boost despite the negativity surrounding them and the hammering they got in Meath East.

Early days of course, with the government hoping that the two deals done on our repayments of loans giving a bit of a boost. Plus, if Moody upgrades our ratings, we go back to the markets and away from the bailout as anticipated, budgets get a bit easier, maybe a third deal this time on our debt - who knows, maybe the government parties will do better than expected in the election in three years time or so.

But despite support for Fine Gael - support for the government as a whole is largely very poor. Satisfaction with the Government is just 17%, with 75% dissatisfied. Big ground to be won back, but in these times of austerity, the government should be happy and Sinn Fein gutted as the main opposition party.

Source: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/latest-poll-shows-slump-for-sf-labour-regaining-ground-591225.html#.UWmREJtnMIU.facebook

Skid X

Sinn Fein are at 16%, not 6%.

Iwasfrozen

Skid X wrote: »

Sinn Fein are at 16%, not 6%.

Good to see they fell four points regardless.

Sully

Skid X wrote: »

Sinn Fein are at 16%, not 6%.

I had Labour at 1 originally, and I spotted it before posting.

Fixed.

Silentcorner

According to the twitter machine, undecideds are at 35%...a massive figure at a time when everyone has an opinion.

Between undecideds and independents just short of half the people polled did not indicate support for any of the main parties.

Dissatisfaction with the Govt is at 75%...

Is that not worthy of discussion?

Or am I clasping at straws...

Manach

Government dissatification could be at 99% and it matters not as there is large majority government and no election in the offing. Thought there were calls to push the local election out a year, from Cork councilmen, the stated reason so as to better align electoral boundaries.

raymon

Fianna Fail weekly newsletter commissions a poll that puts Fianna Fail on top.
Surprise surprise.

I expect the usual FF hacks to write their usual FF drivel

I will wait for next red c poll , thanks

Silentcorner

Manach wrote: »

Government dissatification could be at 99% and it matters not as there is large majority government and no election in the offing. Thought there were calls to push the local election out a year, from Cork councilmen, the stated reason so as to better align electoral boundaries.

Ya I'm aware of the difference between an election result and a poll.

My point was that it seems a lot of people who participated in this poll indicated a 75% disapproval rating for the Govt, it also seems that nearly 50% of participants do not support any of the main parties, yet it is not being discussed by the mainstream media...I am merely questioning this....

And in fact, while in public parties won't be too perturbed...you can bet there will be a lot of local counsellors sweating as the months roll on...

Red Crow

Silentcorner wrote: »

According to the twitter machine, undecideds are at 35%...a massive figure at a time when everyone has an opinion.

Between undecideds and independents just short of half the people polled did not indicate support for any of the main parties.

Dissatisfaction with the Govt is at 75%...

Is that not worthy of discussion?

Or am I clasping at straws...

We are in a country with no political leadership and no viable alternative. At least we can rejoice in the fact that we're not North Korea. When we look back at this period in history it shall not reflect kindly on our leaders over this period and the general public that voted them in. We're locked in a political prison where we vote for the pig or the sow.

People will turn around and ask what have this government achieved? They will be voted out and we'll put Fianna Fail in and we'll vote them out again until we've kicked the can of debt so far down the road that there is no going any further.

Silentcorner

Eli Manning wrote: »

We are in a country with no political leadership and no viable alternative. At least we can rejoice in the fact that we're not North Korea. When we look back at this period in history it shall not reflect kindly on our leaders over this period and the general public that voted them in. We're locked in a political prison where we vote for the pig or the sow.

People will turn around and ask what have this government achieved? They will be voted out and we'll put Fianna Fail in and we'll vote them out again until we've kicked the can of debt so far down the road that there is no going any further.

You do realise you have just given FF their slogan for Election 16..."at least we are not North Korea"...

I have to agree with all the above...but it is becoming more and more obvious...we are a people who want something new, different...the low turnout in ME coupled with the size of the "undecideds" indicates that there is a real thirst for change...

But what are we to do...

BluntGuy

Silentcorner wrote: »

But what are we to do...

Not vote for rubbish politicians.

Sully

BluntGuy wrote: »

Not vote for rubbish politicians.

Sure that would rule out Sinn Fein?

OCorcrainn

Sully wrote: »

Sure that would rule out Sinn Fein?

Sure yeah, a party of politicians who were hunted down, interred without trial, subject of numerous assassination attempts who negotiated with the British and Loyalists to bring about the Good Friday Agreement are all rubbish.

Unlike you and the rest of Fianna Fáil who brought our country, economy and people to their knees because of your corruption, neglect, squandering of our resources and mismanagement in government and relinquished Ireland's economic sovereignty to the Troika and the IMF.

I suggest you run along now, intelligent political discourse is not a suitable activity for people like you.

Sully

OCorcrainn wrote: »

Sure yeah, a party of politicians who were hunted down, interred without trial, subject of numerous assassination attempts who negotiated with the British and Loyalists to bring about the Good Friday Agreement are all rubbish.

Unlike you and the rest of Fianna Fáil who brought our country, economy and people to their knees because of your corruption, neglect, squandering of our resources and mismanagement in government and relinquished Ireland's economic sovereignty to the Troika and the IMF.

I suggest you run along now, intelligent political discourse is not a suitable activity for people like you.

Jesus! I must be living in a past life because I have nothing to do with Fianna Fail nor the last governments that brought out country to its knees!

pablomakaveli

raymon wrote: »

Fianna Fail weekly newsletter commissions a poll that puts Fianna Fail on top.
Surprise surprise.

I expect the usual FF hacks to write their usual FF drivel

I will wait for next red c poll , thanks

Most polls in the last few months have shown a rise in support for FF. I wouldn't be holding out for a much different result in the next Red C poll.

raymon

pablomakaveli wrote: »

Most polls in the last few months have shown a rise in support for FF. I wouldn't be holding out for a much different result in the next Red C poll.

Not true . Even this poll shows a drop for FF.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

Fianna Fail weekly newsletter commissions a poll that puts Fianna Fail on top.
Surprise surprise.

I expect the usual FF hacks to write their usual FF drivel

Lol, are you really trying to claim that the poll is being manipulated? Despite the fact that Millward Brown conform to industry standards with their polling methodology, and that the research is carried out independently?

I may not like the results of certain opinion polls, but at least I don't have to resort to conspiracy theories to provide some context.

Anyways this poll is good news for Labour, it should steady some nerves.

pablomakaveli

raymon wrote: »

Not true . Even this poll shows a drop for FF.

Fianna Fail had 18% support in last Junes Red C poll.

Their support has risen quite a bit since then. the drop in this one was down from 29%. Its still a big increase compared to last year and i cant see it dropping a lot over the coming months unfortunately.

raymon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Lol, are you really trying to claim that the poll is being manipulated? Despite the fact that Millward Brown conform to industry standards with their polling methodology, and that the research is carried out independently?

I may not like the results of certain opinion polls, but at least I don't have to resort to conspiracy theories to provide some context.

Anyways this poll is good news for Labour, it should steady some nerves.

No conspiracy theory. The Sunday Independent is written primarily by FF cheerleaders.

The Milward polling results always puts FF higher than other polls. It would make sense then to choose a polling company whose results reflect better for FF.

If you remove the undecideds , this poll shows FF and FG neck and neck with FF dropping faster than FG.

Again you can choose whatever statistic you want from polls to support a headline.

latenia

OCorcrainn wrote: »

Unlike you and the rest of Fianna Fáil who brought our country, economy and people to their knees because of your corruption, neglect, squandering of our resources and mismanagement in government and relinquished Ireland's economic sovereignty to the Troika and the IMF.

Has there ever been an actuarial study done on the cost to this state (and the UK) of the IRA's campaign of violence? I have no doubt it would dwarf the total of the current economic catastrophe. There's a strong correlation between the original, non-bubble, late 90s/early 00s boom, particularly in regard to FDI and tourism, and Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness kindly agreeing to stop murdering people.

michael999999

latenia wrote: »

Has there ever been an actuarial study done on the cost to this state (and the UK) of the IRA's campaign of violence? I have no doubt it would dwarf the total of the current economic catastrophe. There's a strong correlation between the original, non-bubble, late 90s/early 00s boom, particularly in regard to FDI and tourism, and Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness kindly agreeing to stop murdering people.

It wouldn't be a fraction of the billions Bertie, michael martin and Lenihan gave to there Galway tent 'backers'. NAMA was the greatest swindle ever pulled on a state anywhere in the Western world

Not to mention the bank bailout. At least the IRA went to jail for what they did. Fianna Fail will never see justice because this country is corrupt from the top down.

michael999999

Id also like to know how much in 'dig outs' Fianna Fail hero Bertie ahern really bagged over the years. Id say he acquired a fortune.

Mr.Micro

michael999999 wrote: »

It wouldn't be a fraction of the billions Bertie, michael martin and Lenihan gave to there Galway tent 'backers'. NAMA was the greatest swindle ever pulled on a state anywhere in the Western world

Not to mention the bank bailout. At least the IRA went to jail for what they did. Fianna Fail will never see justice because this country is corrupt from the top down.

Indeed, we are still waiting for explanations as to what happened in 2008 and all the blanket guarantees and whatever. The electorate must be gluttons for punishment in that bringing back FF would do just that. Just look at the front bench of FF.... is there any individual there that a voter could believe would be a benefit to the country? Martin and O'Dea have already been around the block and score a fail.

OCorcrainn

latenia wrote: »

Has there ever been an actuarial study done on the cost to this state (and the UK) of the IRA's campaign of violence? I have no doubt it would dwarf the total of the current economic catastrophe. There's a strong correlation between the original, non-bubble, late 90s/early 00s boom, particularly in regard to FDI and tourism, and Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness kindly agreeing to stop murdering people.

Sinn Féin ≠ IRA

I know that may come as a shock to you.

nuac

latenia wrote: »

Has there ever been an actuarial study done on the cost to this state (and the UK) of the IRA's campaign of violence? I have no doubt it would dwarf the total of the current economic catastrophe. There's a strong correlation between the original, non-bubble, late 90s/early 00s boom, particularly in regard to FDI and tourism, and Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness kindly agreeing to stop murdering people.

Good post.

COYW

michael999999 wrote: »

Id also like to know how much in 'dig outs' Fianna Fail hero Bertie ahern really bagged over the years. Id say he acquired a fortune.

I would love to know how Gerry Adams can afford to own and keep three properties up and running, two here (Dublin & Donegal) and one in the United Kingdom (Belfast) on the average industrial salary but that ain't going to happen also.

OCorcrainn wrote: »

Sinn Féin ≠ IRA

I know that may come as a shock to you.

No, it is just pure coincidence that a number of senior figures of SF have admitted to being members of the IRA or are strongly suspected of membership. People are going to look on both of them as one of the same given such coincidences.

Interesting to see an improvement for Labour in this poll. I still think they will get hammered in the next election though.

Floppybits

All this poll highlights is that there is not a decent political party in the country. There is really no one to vote for.

michael999999

COYW wrote: »

I would love to know how Gerry Adams can afford to own and keep three properties up and running, two here (Dublin & Donegal) and one in the United Kingdom (Belfast) on the average industrial salary but that ain't going to happen also.



No, it is just pure coincidence that a number of senior figures of SF have admitted to being members of the IRA or are strongly suspected of membership. People are going to look on both of them as one of the same given such coincidences.

Interesting to see an improvement for Labour in this poll. I still think they will get hammered in the next election though.

Maybe he's 'friend' gave it to him.

Sure if its good enough for fianna fail hero bertie, why shouldn't everyone do it?

Cody Pomeray

raymon wrote: »

Fianna Fail weekly newsletter commissions a poll that puts Fianna Fail on top.
Surprise surprise.

I expect the usual FF hacks to write their usual FF drivel

I will wait for next red c poll , thanks

The polling was carried out by Millward Browne.

Eli Manning wrote: »

We are in a country with no political leadership and no viable alternative.

The people I blame for this result are Labour. If they had gone into opposition, supporting a minority Government in 2011, they could have managed to apply real pressure to the Government, and they would be the main (largest) opposition party - a massive psychological blow from which FF might never recover.

I hope all the retiring top table of Labour, who won't have to stick around and see the party rebuilt, think it was worth their 5 years in Government. Idiotic.

maccored

why dont you ask SF rather than make weirdly non committal insinuations online? He's written quite a few books - http://www.obrien.ie/author.cfm?authorid=422 ... god forbid, but maybe he made some money at that.

COYW wrote: »

I would love to know how Gerry Adams can afford to own and keep three properties up and running, two here (Dublin & Donegal) and one in the United Kingdom (Belfast) on the average industrial salary but that ain't going to happen also.



No, it is just pure coincidence that a number of senior figures of SF have admitted to being members of the IRA or are strongly suspected of membership. People are going to look on both of them as one of the same given such coincidences.

Interesting to see an improvement for Labour in this poll. I still think they will get hammered in the next election though.

JustinDee

The anti-government campaign in that paper continues...with a 'Bertie wasn't all that bad' couple of pieces thrown in for good measure.

Polls can be steered and are steered to get any answers the commissioners want to find.

Cody Pomeray

JustinDee wrote: »

The anti-government campaign in that paper continues...with a 'Bertie wasn't all that bad' couple of pieces thrown in for good measure.

Polls can be steered and are steered to get any answers the commissioners want to find.

How exactly can a question 'if there were an election tomorrow, who would you vote for' be steered?

It seems like a sraightforward question to me.

People seem to be in denial that Fianna Fáil are on an upsurge and Labour have wrecked their electoral propsects for the next term, which personally i find more infuriating than the actual poll results. If people don't start realizing this, and start responding, there's going to be one heck of a surprise in 2016 (should we get that far).

COYW

maccored wrote: »

why dont you ask SF rather than make weirdly non committal insinuations online? He's written quite a few books - http://www.obrien.ie/author.cfm?authorid=422 ... god forbid, but maybe he made some money at that.

The question has been posed in the Dail, on a few occasions actually. I didn't realise that he was a writer. That may be the source of the income alright. As you can imagine, I am not a reader of republican material.

Bertie Ahern has a book or two also. He also has done and still does quite a bit of after dinner speaking etc, so I suspect that is where he got his wealth from.

OCorcrainn

COYW wrote: »

The question has been posed in the Dail, on a few occasions actually. I didn't realise that he was a writer. That may be the source of the income alright. As you can imagine, I am not a reader of republican material.

Bertie Ahern has a book or two also. He also has done and still does quite a bit of after dinner speaking etc, so I suspect that is where he got his wealth from.

We all know that you are hysterically anti-SF but equating Bertie Ahern to Gerry Adams? Please......

maccored

COYW wrote: »

Bertie Ahern has a book or two also. He also has done and still does quite a bit of after dinner speaking etc, so I suspect that is where he got his wealth from.

and his pension, and being the headboy for a while. as mentioned though, I dont see the relevance between ahern and adams.

Cody Pomeray

COYW wrote: »

The question has been posed in the Dail, on a few occasions actually. I didn't realise that he was a writer. That may be the source of the income alright. As you can imagine, I am not a reader of republican material.

Bertie Ahern has a book or two also. He also has done and still does quite a bit of after dinner speaking etc, so I suspect that is where he got his wealth from.

Have you also considered that Adams is married? That his wife was active in SF herself? Like many households, they have two incomes. If they're both on the AIW, as well as one having been an author, a second home in Donegal is hardly beyond reach.

As far as I know he shares a house in Louth, but he doesn't own it. Perhaps the SF party pay the rent on that (or so I would have thought...) since it exists for political purposes alone.

Abbeville, this is not.

Sierra Oscar

raymon wrote: »

I will wait for next red c poll , thanks

There will be a RedC poll this weekend, field work was carried out at the start of the week.

Should be interesting to see what the figures are.