Summer 2013 long term forecasts

pcasso

So, has there been any long term forecasts for this coming summer.
Are the mystics Kiwi Ken and the Donegal postie in agreement?
More pertinently has MT Cranium made any predictions on Summer 2103.
I am not asking whether, for example it will rain on August 4th.
More a general trend prediction for the summer similar to what MT did for the winter with pretty impressive results.

M.T. Cranium

I might take a shot at summer 2013 in May, as for summer 2103, very very nice.

pcasso

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I might take a shot at summer 2013 in May, as for summer 2103, very very nice.

Ooops .:o:o
I did off course mean 2013.
I look forward to your assessment of the summer ahead.

pauldry

I think that there will be a lot of warm and dry weather this Summer in comparison to recent years but May will be wet and cold. Things will improve in June and July and one of these months is bound to be a scorcher in my opinion. August may follow on too but this is all guesses and the nights are longer in August so cool nights could result.

I just think that we have had so much rain in the last 8 or 9 Summers that we are due a break by the law of averages. Also the Arctic Sea Ice will be near gone by September and this is already having an impact on global climate in some way shape or form.

So in Summer"y a cool and wet May, warm June and July and reasonable August is what I reckon.

Weathering

I'm not making any predictions as it's pointless. To sum up what usually happens,3-4 days of warm sunny weather,we might get it twice if we're lucky. The rest..plenty of rain. Lots of cloudy,drizzly,damp occasionally muggy weather especially the further North and West you travel interspersed with the occasional fresher brighter period.

In other words come the end of August you'll still be as pale as you were on Christmas day. Watch out for the annual onslaught of shorts once it hits 15c

dopolahpec

This winter just gone was very different to preceding ones..very unusual block set up late on, meaning no false spring as in other years. At least when it does warm up this year, it will be a summer warm up if you know what I mean..and that at least will feel nice. I think we may see good weather very soon.

downwiththatsor

dopolahpec wrote: »

This winter just gone was very different to preceding ones..very unusual block set up late on, meaning no false spring as in other years. At least when it does warm up this year, it will be a summer warm up if you know what I mean..and that at least will feel nice. I think we may see good weather very soon.

A certain forecaster that operates a paid for weather service (and gets some good air time on irish local and national radio) predicted a good summer this year and also a fine last 10 days to April which is not looking very likely from the current models.
I still hope he gets the first part right though.:rolleyes:

Danno

With alll the rains the Iberian peninsula and much of France, central southern Europe across to the Black Sea this spring, I feel that we should see a greening of these areas moreso than the normal. This will have an effect on the air temperatures there for the start of summer there keeping excessive heat under control.

Recent summers have seen a rather dry continent allowing heat to rise rapidly off the land and draw in the cooler moist Atlantic air and this passed over us giving the relentless rains and showers.

I think this year, while it should be warmer than recent summers, we should be dominated by high pressure probably anchored to more northern areas allowing for winds to come from the WNW right around to the SSE.

Effect: Breezy, rather dry and good sunshine. Temps prob a little higher than normal, but no record breakers?

Agueroooo

I must check out the frog spawn to see what the weather is going to be like Tuesday July2nd @ 4:15pm :P

Blizzard 2010

hopefully better than the last few:D

M.T. Cranium

One thing that already emerges from my preliminary work on this forecast is that there should be at least one hot spell. Definitions of a hot spell vary, but most would say that there hasn't been a hot spell in Ireland for several years, some might accept late May early June of 2009, others would want to go back as far as July 2006.

I think there probably will be a sustained hot spell this summer. I am not saying it will dominate the three month period that we call summer. By the way, it would probably make more sense in Ireland to say that summer was July, August and September, as June seems almost incapable of leaving the spring weather patterns behind. However, I will play along and include June in the forecast, but only a complete chancer would book their summer holidays for June (said the guy who visited Ireland once, in June 1978).

A more detailed forecast will be provided in about two weeks, but I know for a fact that it will include mention of significant heat. Still working on details and have not looked at output for cloudiness or rainfall yet, just temperature index.

The imprint of the recent cold spell is fading around the northern hemisphere, and we are seeing signs of a total reversal of pattern in equally cold regions of central North America. But one thing that the cold late winter and early spring might have done to assist in providing a better summer, is the colder North Atlantic surface temperatures. At first glance, one might think, wouldn't that sustain a colder atmospheric pattern? Well, looking at the Pacific Ocean where west coast climates in summer are traditionally warm and dry, the colder offshore water simply acts as an atmospheric stabilizer, increasing the low-level inversion and maintaining higher pressures. So I would think a colder North Atlantic might do the same for western Europe, and if the positioning of high pressure is favourable, all of that cold marine layer stays either on the outer coast or offshore with winds blowing out from a heated continent to the coast and just limited inflow of cool marine air. That's how our local climate generally responds. It's encouraging to note that 2006 also had a notably cold spell in late February and most of March, also, 1947 had quite a warm summer after late winter patterns that were grossly similar to this year.

The question will be whether one hot spell is going to be part of a sustained warmer signal or a departure from otherwise colder and wetter spells. Either way, I think a lot of people would take the hot spell.

pcasso

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

One thing that already emerges from my preliminary work on this forecast is that there should be at least one hot spell. Definitions of a hot spell vary, but most would say that there hasn't been a hot spell in Ireland for several years, some might accept late May early June of 2009, others would want to go back as far as July 2006.

I think there probably will be a sustained hot spell this summer. I am not saying it will dominate the three month period that we call summer. By the way, it would probably make more sense in Ireland to say that summer was July, August and September, as June seems almost incapable of leaving the spring weather patterns behind. However, I will play along and include June in the forecast, but only a complete chancer would book their summer holidays for June (said the guy who visited Ireland once, in June 1978).

A more detailed forecast will be provided in about two weeks, but I know for a fact that it will include mention of significant heat. Still working on details and have not looked at output for cloudiness or rainfall yet, just temperature index.

The imprint of the recent cold spell is fading around the northern hemisphere, and we are seeing signs of a total reversal of pattern in equally cold regions of central North America. But one thing that the cold late winter and early spring might have done to assist in providing a better summer, is the colder North Atlantic surface temperatures. At first glance, one might think, wouldn't that sustain a colder atmospheric pattern? Well, looking at the Pacific Ocean where west coast climates in summer are traditionally warm and dry, the colder offshore water simply acts as an atmospheric stabilizer, increasing the low-level inversion and maintaining higher pressures. So I would think a colder North Atlantic might do the same for western Europe, and if the positioning of high pressure is favourable, all of that cold marine layer stays either on the outer coast or offshore with winds blowing out from a heated continent to the coast and just limited inflow of cool marine air. That's how our local climate generally responds. It's encouraging to note that 2006 also had a notably cold spell in late February and most of March, also, 1947 had quite a warm summer after late winter patterns that were grossly similar to this year.

The question will be whether one hot spell is going to be part of a sustained warmer signal or a departure from otherwise colder and wetter spells. Either way, I think a lot of people would take the hot spell.

I hope your predicted hot spell is as accurate and prolonged as the cold spell which you predicted for February and March of this year.
Thanks for this and I look forward to your full analysis of the coming summer's weather

Lucreto

pcasso wrote: »

I hope your predicted hot spell is as accurate and prolonged as the cold spell which you predicted for February and March of this year.
Thanks for this and I look forward to your full analysis of the coming summer's weather

I hope not. The last thing I want is a hot summer. I am a fairly big guy so I suffer more in summer.:o

Hot weather brings sleepless nights, hayfever and no air conditioning at work. The place has a metal roof so that does me no favours also the uniform is made of a heavy material good for winter not so in the summer. It is going to be hell.