Aintree Festival 2013 - Day One

MoscowFlyer

Lets get this rolling.

The slam dunk tomorrow has to be Irish Saint. Bypassed Cheltenham so should be fresh. Rolling Star is the fav by the look of it but can't have it after the Cheltenham run so I'll be taking the 3/1 on Irish Saint.

I'll have a better look later tonight

Good luck!

rossom

One for tomorrow in the shape of 5.25 Aintree Lienosus 10/1. Will get a write up done later.

longshotvalue

Aintree Day 1

4:15 Aintree
Thanks for That, is a pure good ground 2 miler and it’s been a while since he’s had that. He was a very good 2nd last year at the festival and didn’t get his conditions there this year. He is sure to be tuned up for this time of the year and has very little racing this year in comparison to the rest. He is 2lbs lower than his run at the festival last year and 20/1 looks a great price.

1 Point EW 20/1 Various

3:40 Aintree
Paul Nicholls holds the key here with the Fav and an interesting contender in Rebel Du Maquis. He performs best on good ground and I liked the look of his last run at Cheltenham over 2m5,when travelling well until a mistake 3 out in a much better race than this. This might be plan b but he has an excellent jockey on board and as an 8yo can beat some of the older better fancies ones here.

2 Points win 10/1

5:25 Aintree
Sentry Duty is one who has generally been disappointing for a while now. I did like the look of one of his flats run this year, and gut feeling tells me that this race might just suit him. 3 Miles on a flat track of a half decent mark might just give him a chance at a huge price and it’s worth a shot just in case

1 Point EW 40/1 William Hill

2:00 Aintree

I’m not sure there is much between most of these near the top of the market, and Vasco Du Ronceray was a very good 5th at the festival when he had a silly amount of ground to make up over the last 2 flights. He has the assistance of Tony McCoy here tomorrow and at the current odds of 8/1 he looks the value of the race. He was ahead of the favourite at Cheltenham and I don’t really see any reason for that to change here.

2 Points win 8/1 Various

Colonel Sanders

Don't want to be a Moaning Michael but I'm guessing those Paul Jones trends analyses that keep getting posted are copy righted.

TheMilkyPirate

Like the look of a Silviniaco conti and Captain conan double.

Also backed Warne in the foxhunters, Beat Tammys hill fairly easily LTO

ste2010

In the novices 2m 4 I fancy tap night. I was very surprised they went for the arkle at Cheltenham and I would question whether that was actually a prep run for this race. I always got the impression tap night was a 2m 4 or 3m horse and I think tomorrow's trip will suit him like a glove. He was on the radar as a selection for me in the jewson and i was shocked they took the 2m route.
Captain Conan had a tough race, carlito brigante similar when not firing at Cheltenham , I can recall he didn't really find any luck that day all the same.
I couldn't trust Fago.. Tap night is the selection for me at 10-1 ew

Shane732

baraca wrote: »

Like the look of a Silviniaco conti and Captain conan double.

Also backed Warne in the foxhunters, Beat Tammys hill fairly easily LTO

What do people think of First Lieutenant? I didn't see the Gold Cup live and knew the result before I watched it but I thought Silviniaco Conti was travelling very well and really think he would have been there or there abouts if he stayed up.

He's ususally an excellent jumper but seemed to mess a few of them up at Cheltenham.

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

In the novices 2m 4 I fancy tap night. I was very surprised they went for the arkle at Cheltenham and I would question whether that was actually a prep run for this race. I always got the impression tap night was a 2m 4 or 3m horse and I think tomorrow's trip will suit him like a glove. He was on the radar as a selection for me in the jewson and i was shocked they took the 2m route.
Captain Conan had a tough race, carlito brigante similar when not firing at Cheltenham , I can recall he didn't really find any luck that day all the same.
I couldn't trust Fago.. Tap night is the selection for me at 10-1 ew

Was just about to put up practically the same reasoning for backing Tap Night. While Captain Conan ran bravely in Jewson, he clearly didn't see out the trip strongly enough. Tap Night stayed on well to beat Captain Conan over hurdles at 2m2 trip last season and like you, I think the Arkle was a bit of an after-thought for connections. Nicholls has said that Fago will definitely need a summers grass and that tomorrow may come soon enough. Given the size of his price compared to the principles, I think Tap Night's a solid each-way bet.

cdr80

Shane732 wrote: »

What do people think of First Lieutenant?.

I fancy him to win

Johner

First Lieutenant will probably run really well without being quite good enough. Hard to believe such a good horse has only won two terrible novice chases in his chasing career!

MonkstownHoop

Irish Saint in the first & Battle Group in the last

ste2010

Johner wrote: »

First Lieutenant will probably run really well without being quite good enough. Hard to believe such a good horse has only won two terrible novice chases in his chasing career!

I always thought this was the race for him. In hindsight they should have probably bypassed the Ryanair for this. Given his Cheltenham exertions I think the long run in my find the better of him

TheMilkyPirate

Really like FL and think he is hugely talented but he's finding one too good all the time lately and I fear it will be the same tomorrow.

Really warming to Irish saint now as well.

Rastadoyle

some quality racing tomorow! presume the Amateur race will be a lottery again?

SRFC

If Fago wins tomorrow ill give up backing horses he has absolutely no chance of winning even if they let him off now he's useless.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

If Fago wins tomorrow ill give up backing horses he has absolutely no chance of winning even if they let him off now he's useless.

Ah for fucks sake...he'll hack up now so.

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Ah for fucks sake...he'll hack up now so.

He has zero chance of winning tomorrow,his performances have been very average and his last run was appaling,wont get within 20 lengths of the winner if he repeats that run,ground difference or not he will not be winning.

Johner

SRFC wrote: »

He has zero chance of winning tomorrow,his performances have been very average and his last run was appaling,wont get within 20 lengths of the winner if he repeats that run,ground difference or not he will not be winning.

It really is a shocking race, not grade 1 quality anyway.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

He has zero chance of winning tomorrow,his performances have been very average and his last run was appaling,wont get within 20 lengths of the winner if he repeats that run,ground difference or not he will not be winning.

Do you get the ole sarcasm? I agree. Can't see him winning, terrible price.

SRFC

jimjamcos wrote: »

Do you get the ole sarcasm? I agree. Can't see him winning, terrible price.

The way my lucks been lately If I laid him he wouldnt come of the bridle


I'd 7 bets the past two days and every one them was 2nd :mad:



Anyways looking to tomorrow Jetson got a bad ride in Cheltenham good to see Power jocked off.

Theborderfox81

There is a lot of confidence within Hendersons for Oscar Whiskey tomorrow. Got 6/1. Captain Conan strongly fancied too.

TheMilkyPirate

Theborderfox81 wrote: »

There is a lot of confidence within Hendersons for Oscar Whiskey tomorrow. Got 6/1. Captain Conan strongly fancied too.

Any reason why Geraghty jumped ship to Grandouet then?

SRFC

Rolling star has an easy race in the triumph geraghty didnt go hard on him expect him to be fresh.

Johner

I think Rolling Star will win well tomorrow. Already beat Irish Saint quite comfortably and it's easy to forgive him the run at Cheltenham.

Colonel Sanders

I'm guessing Anquetta is Pricewise?

Theborderfox81

baraca wrote: »

Any reason why Geraghty jumped ship to Grandouet then?

According to his blog he put it down to Oscars Cheltenham run. He said he went on a gut decision. Oscars last piece of work was very good. Similar enough to last years win.

MonkstownHoop

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'm guessing Anquetta is Pricewise?

yep

Niallers87

I think a horse that could run well tomorrow at a big price of 25/1 in the 4.15 at Aintree is Kie who is running off a 3lb lower mark here.

Colonel Sanders

MonkstownHoop wrote: »

yep

Blue across the board and seemed fancied in the Grand Annual before the ground went against him

Theborderfox81

Tanks for that is similar. 1st time he'll have good ground in a year.

the groutch

just the one for me tomorrow, Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle.
tomorrow's opposition isnt any stronger than what he had behind him the last two years, and bypassing Cheltenham could well be the deciding factor this year.
Definitely overpriced at 10/1.

jimjamcos

the groutch wrote: »

just the one for me tomorrow, Thousand Stars in the Aintree Hurdle.
tomorrow's opposition isnt any stronger than what he had behind him the last two years, and bypassing Cheltenham could well be the deciding factor this year.
Definitely overpriced at 10/1.

I like him too as he's been ran with this in mind all season. It's definitely a stronger race than last years though!

Sir des champs

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Blue across the board and seemed fancied in the Grand Annual before the ground went against him

Was hendersons fancy for grand annual if ground turned up good,he thought he was the best handicapped horse they had for festival

Shane732

I'm confused as to why The New One is favourite for the race tomorrow. Looking back at the Cheltenham race (I nearly cried again having backed Pont Alexandre in pretty much every type of bet possible) The New One seemed to need the 2m 5.

I'd agree that Thousand Stars is over priced.

Hulk Hands

Shane732 wrote: »

I'm confused as to why The New One is favourite for the race tomorrow. Looking back at the Cheltenham race (I nearly cried again having backed Pont Alexandre in pretty much every type of bet possible) The New One seemed to need the 2m 5.

I'd disregard that's he's favourite. Somebody has to be favourite, it's his price that we can question. Would you like to lay a horse that has course form, will love the ground, is thoroughly unexposed and who just won a hot race in hugely impressive fashion, at 7/2? For all those reasons he simply can't be any bigger than 7/2. That he's favourite is just the way the race panned out

rossom

5.25 Aintree

Lienosus 10/1

Although its definitely going to be difficult for a lightly race Novice to win such a competitive handicap, I think Evan Williams's 7 year old has a very lenient opening mark of 131 and I think he's got a massive chance of landing this race as he should relish the step up to 3m. A dual Point To Point winner, this son of Old Vic made an extremely pleasing debut under Rules when 3rd in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle over 20f at Chepstow back in October. Facing significantly more experienced rivals, Lienosus was held up at the rear of the field for much of the contest but started a long and persistent run from 4f out. However, he made a mistake at 3 out where he lost his back legs and all the momentum he had built up. In 4th at the time, he was stopped in his tracks but showed a really lovely battling quality as he recovered from that mistake to power up the run in to take 3rd. If he never made that error, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind he would have finished 2nd and it was a really lovely introduction over hurdles and effort that was full of promise. The winner Wonderful Charm was pitched into the World Hurdle on his next start and although he disappointed he's clearly well thought of by the Nicholls team. The runner up Ballybough Pat (who reopposes tomorrow) had beaten subsequent Albert Bartlett 2nd African Gold on hurdling debut 2 weeks prior and faces Lienosus on 2lb worse terms tomorrow and there is no doubt in my mind that he will reverse the form. The 4th Hawkhill came into the race on the back of a Listed Novice Hurdle victory to solidify the form and it was an extremely impressive debut over timber. Moreover, I think it says an awful lot about how he is rated at home to be pitched into Grade Company on debut and he is clearly a very talented animal.

A month later, Lienosus proved that his Rules debut was no fluke when running another excellent race when runner up to Clondaw Kaempfer in a Listed Novice Hurdle over 2m at Haydock. In testing conditions, Lienosus sat in mid division of the 6 runner field and was the first to be niggled briefly (briefly) when the pace initially quickened. Approaching 3 out, Lienosus moved into a line of 3 for the lead and he and the winner proceeded to quicken clear of the remainder. In fine battling style, Lienosus was about 1L down jumping the last and forced Clondaw Kaempfer to get very serious before the latter's superior speed came to the fore late on as he forged on to score by 3.75L. It was another highly encouraging effort over a distance that was much shorter than ideal and another superb display. The winner (who conceded Lienousus 4lb), looks a really talented animal whose victory that day gave him a perfect career 3-3. Clondaw Kaempfer was subsequently stepped into Grade 1 Company on his only subsequent start but he stumbled and seemed to injure himself when travelling well at 3 out and is clearly a serious horse whilst the well beaten 3rd that day Landscape, who carried 8lb more than Lienosus, is now rated 136 over hurdles. Given the winter off, Lienosus shed his Maiden tag at the 3rd time of asking over 18f at Fontwell last month in facile fashion in a pretty poor contest and it was pleasing to see him get a win under his belt. Based on those 3 efforts, I definitely think he's well handicapped off a mark of 131 and I think he'll revel in a fast run race over 3m which should see him improve drastically. He's scraped in here as bottom weight and I think its interesting that he bypassed the Albert Bartlett to come here and exploit what looks a lenient opening mark (was also declared for Friday's Grade 1 Novice Hurdle. Paul Maloney once again takes the ride and Evan Williams has his horses in fine form at the moment. I rate Battle Group and Many Clouds as serious dangers to this ones chances but I'm quite sweet on Lienosus's chances. Although he'll definitely need luck in running in such a large field, if he gets a largely troubled free passage in this I think he'll run a very big race and I think he could prove a class above the opposition off 131.

rossom

5.35 Taunton

Thundering Home 6/1

Going to keep this short and sweet but I think Richard Mitchell's Thundering Home as a great chance of landing this contest and I just cannot see him out of the frame. Now with his 5th trainer, this 6 year old grey has been a huge credit to connections this year and looks to still be improving over hurdles. After falling on his handicap debut back in October, he ran out a ready winner off a mark of 91 back in November in ready fashion and after unseating at the last without a penalty a week later he put in another great showing when not beaten far by the hugely progressive Home Run off a mark of 97 at the end of December. After reverting back to the flat and producing a solid 3rd, he put in a tremendous performance in defeat off a mark of 98 at Kempton in February when going down by a neck but gained another richly deserved victory at Sandown over an extended 2m on his latest start. Off a mark of 101, Thundering Home was anchored at the back of the field by tomorrow's jockey Tom Bellamy in the Conditional Jockey's contest before he lived up to his name with a wonderfully timed challenge to get up to lead close home and score by 1.5L. The form of that race looks strong with the 3rd Tuscan Gold comprehensively beating the rest of the field when finding the talented Lienosus too good on his next start whilst the 4th Seventh Sky, who finished in that same position when Thundering Home was beaten a neck two starts back, is now rated 13lb higher having won easily and been defied by a head on his only 2 subsequent starts. Additionally, the 5th Loyaute was beaten 1L in a big field handicap on his next start off the same mark before easily winning a Maiden Hurdle and there is quite a bit of substance to this grey's win. Upped a very reasonable 6lb to a career high of 107, this very much in form grey is stepped up to an extended 2m3f for the first time and given that he relished the stiff finish at Sandown and stayed 15f on the flat I don't think he'll have a problem with the extra distance and feel he can improve for it. The excellent Tom Bellamy, who seems to have a great relationship with the horse, takes the ride and is worth every ounce of his 7lb claim. Moreover, given that he could only claim 3lb of his allowance for the last race, he's effectively only 2lb higher than that success and I feel he has a tremendous chance of following up that victory. Clearly in fine form, I'm hoping Bellamy produces another beautifully timed challenge to win this and I just cannot see him out of the first 3 home.

rossom

4.15 Aintree

Donnas Palm 25/1

I've hummed and hawed about this one as he is going to have to be given an exquisite ride to win over 2m on good ground but he just looks too well handicapped on his stable debut for Tim Vaughan to go unbacked. Formerly a high class hurdler for Noel Meade, Donnas Palm lost his way for the Tu Va handler this season and is a very interesting acquisition for Vaughan who has reported this 9 year old to be "sparkling on the gallops". Looking at his chasing form, his defeat of the very talented Foildubh in blinkers last February in a Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown make him an attractively handicapped horse off a mark of 133 and he has a lovely racing weight of 10-9. He's been freshened up for his stable debut and comes here on the back of a 130 day absence but has won after a break before so I'm not overly concerned by his lack of a recent run. Richard Johnson takes the ride and there are not many other jockeys I'd want in the saddle given that he's definitely going to find 2m on the sharp side and the faster they go the better for his chances. The blinkers he sported for his Grade 2 Chase win are applied on stable debut and I do think its quite significant that he's pitched into such a competitive race on his first start for Vaughan. Although he could be a spent force, his new trainer has certainly given him some very favourable paddock reports and the change of scenery could have worked wonders for a horse who should still hold his ability at the age of 9. There are definitely a few questions to be answered with regards to Donnas Palm but there is no doubting he's well handicapped off 133 if still the force of old. On ground that shouldn't be a problem, I'm more hopeful then confident with this ones chances but if the switch of stables has revitalised then he could be set to run a blinder and at 25/1 I'm willing to play in the hope he does.

pugw

Irish Saint - The new one double, both at 7/2 now!

Johner

2.00 - Rolling Star

2.30 - Silviniaco Conti/First Lieutenant forecast

3.05 - Grandouet

3.40 - Warne e/w

4.15 - Tanks For That e/w

4.50 - Captain Conan

5.15 - Many Clouds e/w

sting60

Foxhunters=Rebel Du Maquis 10/1 has a lovely weight and now the ground has come right big time.Three races ago he ran in a listed chase and this is a hunter today???It has to be taken on trust jumping these fences but if he handles them he is a massive player and rates my NAP of the day.The most important factor today and tomorrow will be the ground.Do your homework on horses with good action and forget horses that have won recently in soft/heavy.If Silviniaco Conti is ok after his fall at Cheltenham then he should win hard held as he by far the best horse in the race.The ground has come right for Pires and this lad will take some beating as I think he is better than 139.

Gringo180

E.W Lucky 15
L'unique 2.00 10/1
Menorah 2.30 14/1
Raya Star 3.05 28/1
Thanks For That 4.15 14/1

& Cool Friend 3.40 33/1

Colonel Sanders

**** me, Powers have the cheek to go 5/4 Zarkandar AND Silviniaco to both be placed today. Zarkandar is 2.34 on Betfair to place.

I know it's Caveat Emptor but that's simply taking the p!ss

thehape

FIRST LIEUTENANT
OSCAR WHISKY
BOLD ADDITION
REBEL REBELLION

ew yankee

El Ninotorres

EW Lucky 15

Flaxen Flare
1st Lieutnenat
Pires
Carlito Brigante

Moon Dice

Great days racing. The Aintree hurdle in particular is a cracker. Im going for Grandouet

Gerard92

Vasco du Ronceray's chances?

snowgal

Accum
2.00: Flaxen Flare
3:05: Zarkander
3.40: Bold Addition
4.15: Rebel Rebellion

UrbanSea

Used a tenner free bet on Hollow Tree in the last at 33/1. Not entirely sure he wants three miles but he's well handicapped and will appreciate the better ground.

Also backed Little Garcon at Lingfield at 16/1 who is plummeting down the weights.

modmuffin

Great days racing

€1 e/w trebles from:

Vasco Du Ronceray
Lienosus
Tanks for That
Countrywide Flame
Tap Night

€ 10 Trixie
Silvinaco Conti
Rolling Star
Captain Conan

admiralofthefleet

im on Irish saint. bypassed cheltenham for this and i just have one of those feeling about nicholls; he was very quiet at cheltenham