Ronde van Vlaanderen - contains unmasked spoiler info

sy

Start list. My favourite race of the year is on this Sunday. The 2nd Monument of the year and the one race that all Belgian cyclists would love to have on their palmares. (as would most other pros! ask Kelly) Sagan and Cancellara are the obvious favourites but Boonen who seems to be recovering quickly from his knee/arm problems may have something to say about that. Boonen will be going for a record 4 wins and if he can discover the form he showed this time last year, I wouldn't bet against him. His team is easily the strongest with Chavanel and Terpstra both possible winners and Stybar is a future contender. Sagan and Cancellara's teams are not as strong so expect lots of attacks from OPQS in the last 40kms. Pozzato was very strong in the race last year but not sure if he can reproduce the same. Hushovd was disappointing in his last few races but expect young Taylor Phinney to be there at the end and the ever present Greg Van Avermaet. My outside bet is that Devolder might just sneak away while Sagan Boonen and Cancellara cancel each other out. He did it a few years ago when Boonen and Cancellara were busy watching each other and he might just do the same again. Having won it on 2 previous occasions might also be a big factor and I forgot to mention, as most of you know, he is Belgian

ROK ON

It would be nice to see Chavanel do it.

Flandria

sy wrote: »

Start list. My favourite race of the year is on this Sunday. The 2nd Monument of the year and the one race that all Belgian cyclists would love to have on their palmares. (as would most other pros! ask Kelly) Sagan and Cancellara are the obvious favourites but Boonen who seems to be recovering quickly from his knee/arm problems may have something to say about that. Boonen will be going for a record 4 wins and if he can discover the form he showed this time last year, I wouldn't bet against him. His team is easily the strongest with Chavanel and Terpstra both possible winners and Stybar is a future contender. Sagan and Cancellara's teams are not as strong so expect lots of attacks from OPQS in the last 40kms. Pozzato was very strong in the race last year but not sure if he can reproduce the same. Hushovd was disappointing in his last few races but expect young Taylor Phinney to be there at the end and the ever present Greg Van Avermaet. My outside bet is that Devolder might just sneak away while Sagan Boonen and Cancellara cancel each other out. He did it a few years ago when Boonen and Cancellara were busy watching each other and he might just do the same again. Having won it on 2 previous occasions might also be a big factor and I forgot to mention, as most of you know, he is Belgian

Yes, the best race of the year for sure. A good assessment too, but I'm afraid I wouldn't rate Tomekke's chances so highly. I'm his biggest fan but it looks like the form isn't there yet and at RVV anything less than 100% won't cut it. I'm sure he will cover any moves if he can but a fifth P-R at full tilt a week later might be more within his scope given his current form. Sagan looks unstoppable but he was spooked by Chavanel's shadow at MSR and was outfoxed by Boonen and Cancellara at E3 so inexperience might just undo him yet. If anyone can expose a chink in Sagan's armoury it will be Cancellara, who could have won MSR and was back to his 2010 best at E3. If he gets an opportunity to ride away he will, and if the rest start to play games even for a few seconds he will be gone.

BMC should have an ace hand but Hushovd is fast becoming the Andy Schleck of the Classics and Gilbert is still mining his 2012 seam of form. Van Avermaet remains their best classics rider and is a good shout for a podium. Sky have a similar problem to BMC insofar as EBH hasn't come on to be the Classics giant he was meant to be a couple of years ago. Thomas could be good for a top six finish but Stannard has been exceptional this season and I wouldn't be surprised if he finished as Sky's top rider. Katusha too, have strength in depth for this and Paolini has already proved his credentials this season and Kristoff looks very strong.

I would expect Leukemans, Pozzato and Terpstra to be at the sharp end also, but I think Chavanel has the best chance for OPQS. He has been really strong and consistent so far and really should have won this two years ago. It would be great to see a French monument winner, 1996 was a long time ago. If Sagan and Cancellara don't mark each other out of it then one of them should win though...

Anyway, enjoy the race - I'm off to Bruges to really enjoy it;)

DirkVoodoo

Great little synopsis Sy, roll on Sunday! Hopefully the race amongst the favourites isn't decided by a crash, would be good to see the climbs be the decider on the day.

ROK ON

I confidently predict that Tyler Farrar will crash.

montac

Is the Muur still out of the race route?
I think the race missed it last year. It is such a decisive and dramatic sector.

Flandria

montac wrote: »

Is the Muur still out of the race route?
I think the race missed it last year. It is such a decisive and dramatic sector.

Yep, the Muur is out - same route as last year

TheBlaaMan

Some fans on the course since yesterday........
http://www.nieuwsblad.be/sportwereld/cnt/BLPMA_20130327_001?#photoset

Really looking forward to the race !

sy

De Ronde’s hellingen for 2013:
Tiegemberg (750m, 5.6%) — 91km
Taaienberg (800m, 5.6%) — 113km
Eikenberg (1.17km, 5.6%) — 119km
Molenberg (500m, 9.8%) — 134km
Rekelberg (800m, 4%) — 149km
Berendries (900m, 7.2%) — 154km
Valkenberg (880m, 6%) — 160km
Oude Kwaremont (2.2km, 4.2%)) — 182km
Paterberg (380m, 13.7%) — 186km
Koppenberg (620m, 10.2%) — 192km
Steenbeekdries (700m, 5.3%) — 198km
Kruisberg/Hotond (1.8km, 4.8%) — 209km
Oude Kwaremont (2.2km, 4.2%)) — 219km
Paterberg (380m, 13.7%) — 223km
Hoogberg/Hotond (4.2km, 3.1%) — 230km
Oude Kwaremont (2.2km, 4.2%) — 239km
Paterberg (380m, 13.7%) — 243km

Same course as last year. The last two are climbed 3 times so I'm sure Cancellara will be doing his best to drop Sagan on the Kwaremont as he did in the recent E3 Harelbeke

Chips Lovell

Sunday is my favourite day of the year. Clocks go forward, Game of Thrones is back on the telly and, most importantly, the Tour of Flanders is on.

If this race is shortened or cancelled due to snow, I will not be a happy man.

buffalo

Vladimir Kurtains wrote: »

Sunday is my favourite day of the year. Clocks go forward

But it's the bad change - less sleep!

Junior

Here are the conundrums for RVV ...

Can Cancellara win using the same tactic he's always used and try ride everyone off his wheel if everyone knows thats what he's going to do ?
Can Cannondale actually support Sagan, Moser looked sharp earlier this year, can they use him up the road ?
OPQS - Who is actually the team leader here ?

In my own eyes I think Boonen is coming in here and he's been trying to hide his light under a bushel, I think he knows he's not riding TdF etc so he's pinned his season on this, his elbow and crash last week haven't helped - but he's still Tom Boonen. OPQS have a situation similar to BMC lots of chiefs, so you'd wonder who's going to do the work, also if the big chief fails on the day are they going to support him again for Roubaix or will they want to take their own chances ? This hasn't worked out before for Chavanel. The Quickstep team is announced as Boonen, Chavanel, Terpstra, Vandenbergh, Stybar, Keisse, Steegmans & Kwiatkowski. That's a huge amount of power there.

The interesting thing for me at MSR was that on the Poggio Cancellara had two or three teammates present, so maybe Radioshack have a few riders to support him this year and he might use the head first instead of just brute forcing everyone else.

I can see Sky being present towards the sharp end, but I remain to be convinced of their tactical awareness or nous - I reckon they could mess it up for other people but can't see them getting the win. I think a lot of riders in Sky love the classics but are a few years short of experience on how to win them even though the engine might be there.

I have a feeling that it mightn't be a favourite that wins.

CillianL

My armchair strategist thoughts on the big teams:

OPQS have the best belgian classics team, but there's a problem of leadership this year. They steamrolled the field last year but it was more straightforward given that Boonen was flying and could anchor the team. If Boonen goes in as leader and falters 2/3 through leadership will have to fall on Chavanel and Terpstra, but they'll have wasted critical energy already given that they're key roadmen for Boonen to control the race.

Sky have a similar problem with leadership and to an extent arrogance. the classics are too long and technical to control mechanically like a GT stage. Ian Stannard is a in better form than Geraint Thomas at the moment but I can't see them giving him the leadership as he's used as a workhorse all the time and that strength will be needed in the earlier stages of the race. Finally if Thomas or Stannard are in a break unless they get rid of Sagan or Boonen I don't think they've a chance in the sprint.

Radioshack have the clear leader in Spartacus which makes everything simple but there's no plan B either. Everyone knows how Cancellara wins a race,he'll be closed down and disrupted throughout the race. If Cancellara is to beat Sagan he'll have to attack him after Sagan puts in a very hard effort from poor positioning etc

BMC: Gilbert has been on very respectable form this season so I don't think he deserves to be written off. Going into the race as an underdog could suit him as he'll be given more breathing space than the likes of Cancellara or Sagan which he can exploit readily. Taylor Phinney is phenomenal and brave but I reckon his inexperience will cost him a few places, but I'd say he's in with a top 15 at least. Thor Hushovd has been a bit of choker in the last 2 years and at 35 its not convincing he'll put a huge ride in on Sunday.

Cannondale: Sagan can win the race from so many different scenarios the whole field will ride against him and his team. I reckon poor positioning and overconfidence could be his Achilles heel as the rest of the teams will exploit that. As well splits which force Sagan to chase will be ideal as it will drain him of the killer sprint which cost him MSR to Ciolek. Nevertheless he's my favorite for the victory.

MPFG

Gilbert and Phinney are out of the race ...

The winner IMO will come from the strongerst team and that is OPQS......

But a long shot could be Paolini or Breschel

Great thing about these races is you never really know

Super Freak

Specialized are going for six in a row.

MPFG

http://www.cyclingtips.com.au/2013/03/introducing-the-classics/

petethedrummer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EoJ66sNkog

petethedrummer

Some good vids on inrng.com

http://inrng.com/2013/03/ronde-van-paterberg-bordure-film/
http://inrng.com/2013/03/thursday-shorts-4/

Craig06

After Chavanel's performance yesterday, I think my money would be on him to win. With a team that are in fire this year and Boonen struggling at the moment.

Morrisseeee

"I will win..............on one wheel"



"I will win............I'll fly up those bergs"



"I will win...........I'll eat up the cobbles"

Chips Lovell

There are four previous winners starting on Sunday: Tom Boonen, Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Devolder and Nick Nuyens.

If Boonen wins, he'll be the first to win four Tours of Flanders. Devolder has won it twice, more than his team leader Cancellara, who's only got one win, but although he's showing signs of his best form since he left Quick Step, he'll be Plan B for Radioshack, given the form Cancellara is in. Nuyens is still struggling to recover from injury and is unlikely to be in the mix.

In terms of favourites, it's shaping up to be a battle between Cancellara and Sagan. On the one hand, you've got Cancellara's experience, power to get gaps on the bergs and solo to the finish. On the other, you've got Sagan's incredible versatility that's tempered still be a touch of tactical naivety.

Cancellara gave a master class in how he can win at E3. While Sagan punctured at the wrong time and burnt a huge amount of matches in terms of his team and his own legs, Cancellara was in the right place all the time and only needed one acceleration to leave the rest of them for dead.

Sagan put his own marker down by winning Gent - Wevelgem and a stage of De Panne but at that point Cancellara was already resting up for Sunday.

The big question is Boonen. He's clearly not in the form of last year and still struggling to catch-up from illness and injuries. But he's not totally off the pace and brings the strongest team to start. Quick Step have shown before that they're not afraid to play multiple cards in this race. Chavanel is probably their best bet. Stijn Vandenbergh is going really well but, god help him, he's got no kick whatsoever.

mossym

didn't see it mentioned, so just to point out, live on eurosport from 12 sunday. 5 hours of coverage

Raam

mossym wrote: »

didn't see it mentioned, so just to point out, live on eurosport from 12 sunday. 5 hours of coverage

Says live from 11 here: http://tv.eurosport.co.uk/tvschedule.shtml

mossym

Raam wrote: »

Says live from 11 here: http://tv.eurosport.co.uk/tvschedule.shtml

apologies, was on the .com site which is the european version, so an hour ahead. 11am it is.

ROK ON

Would not rule out Stybar. Ostensibly he is in this race to work for others but also gain experience. He turned to the road specifically to target this race - although maybe not this year.

Love to see Chavanel do it. Reckon Thomas has a chance - building nicely with a few near misses and a seriously strong team - of which Stannard is a monster.

MPFG

Not the tour of Flanders but thought you might like to see

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWL54Abw1Go&feature=player_embedded

TheBlaaMan

Doesnt look like its going to be too bad, weatherwise. No real rain in any case....

Oudenaarde, Flanders (Belgium)
Sunday, 31/03/2013
Time Forecast Temp. Precipitation Wind
00:00–07:00 -1° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from north-northeast
06:00–12:00 -4° 0 mm Light air, 2 m/s from north
12:00–18:00 3° 0 – 0.1 mm Gentle breeze, 4 m/s from northeast
18:00–00:00 6° 0 mm Gentle breeze, 5 m/s from north-northeast

Rastadoyle

devolder 150/1 to win so bookies think he has no chance despite winning this twice in the past.
gatto at 66/1 could be overpiced as he has won recently.

michaelm

From Graham Watson's twitter account:

Graham Watson‏@grahamwatson

Round 2 of De Ronde recconaissance done, part 3 tomorrow - the best parts..! Koppenberg looked promising, wet and muddy in the middle..

drogdub

Been looking forward to this all week. Is it just me or has this the feel of something epic about to happen? I think chavennel will take it (if not sagan)

TheBlaaMan

Unlike last year, there is plenty of TV coverage for the earlier stages of tomorrows race and we will be able to enjoy the riders on the Koppenberg (sometime around 1:30 - 2:00 depending on the speed on the day) and after that the 2nd and 3rd times up both Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg.

The last two hours are not to be missed !

manafana

3 pages already, wall to wall tv coverage, got my cycle out way this morning which is handy.

A bit on what I fancy odds included

Peter Sagan (5/2 Paddypower) – the Strongest form on offer here as he has blown 2013 to pieces, 2 wins in Oman and Tirreno a second at Strade Bianche and E3 as well as Milan San Remo. In the build up to this Sunday he has won Gent Wevelgem, A stage in 3 days of De Panne, a podium finish seems to be pretty much a sure thing for the Slovak this season. His team has not supported him the best a lot like Cancellera 2-3years ago and that can waste energy. The fact he seems so consistent and comes in better shape than 2012, anything outside of a top 5 would be a big suprise.
Fabian Cancellara (11/4 coral) The winner back in 201 hes had issues since but will be keen to get his 2nd Flanders title while Bonnen is weak and Sagan still has the pressure of trying to get off the mark in the monuments. He crashed out last year causing him major set backs, in 2011 he created the winning move but was sold into doing the most of the work losing the sprint to fresher legs in Nuyens. If he really wants to win he will look to break away and solo to the line, a sprint will likely see him outfoxed.
S.Chavanel (11/1 various) The French man comes in haven been dominant in the 3 days of de Panne. Hes had an excellent season, hes currently on course for his best season since moving to the Belgium team 5 years ago. He has a whole host of top 5s this season but seems to find few too good but did win the sprint in Paris Nice. Popular in the market as he had been as high as 20/1 not so long ago for a race he has not targetted specifically before.
Tom Boonen (16/1 paddypower) Last years champion and multiple winner but his build up can have hardly have gone worse, an off season elbow infection set him back from the off, and he has had an illness which halted his racing, add to that a crash last Sunday in GW and the worry is that he isn’t right just yet with his rivals haven had much more proven form for the season coming in.
F.Pozzato (20/1 various) The Italian was inches from gaining the title last year as Boonen just hung on over the days last Muur, he did not have enough in the sprint to overcome the local favourite. He prefers warmer weather, hes always lacked the will to win in the wet and cold. Add to that how easy his head can go down when 1st place is out of site, his best showing have come in domestic races but none raced as hard as Flanders will, and he is missing the help of Gatto since coming back to Lampre.
G.Thomas (30/1 bwin) Last year saw him focus on the track, but this year he will target the classics, hes placed highly in Robuaix but has not had much of a record in Flanders as he did not get to race it last year but he was 10th in the 2011 edition. He looked strong in the tour down under getting involved with a stage win and a fight for the overall. So far he is on for his biggest season as a pro. 4th in E3 and Omloop bode well for his chances here. Been a junior Paris Roubaix winner that may be more suited to his skills, but he has improved on the climbing side of things also.


G.Van Avermaet (50/1 ladbrokes) 22nd in 2011, he was best of the rest last year winning the sprint for 4th, ahead of some of the biggest names in one day cycling. This course suits him down to the ground and with both Gilbert and Phinney out of the picture, this is the man BMC should be getting behind. The signs are their for him acting as main man in Gent he came 3rd their a prefect sign his form is right. He will have a team of strong domestics by his side to ensure he gets to the final climbs in good order and Oss could continue to suprise and have his own say.
Edvald Boassen Hagen (50/1 paddypower) The boss is slowly going down the sky pecking order this season, but his talent can not be doubted, he came in 19th with the group last year. He has been their about in most of his recent races bar him pulling out in San Remo but improvement is needed to push for a victory here.
N.Terpstra (50/1 various) Terpstra comes in without a win in any of the Belgium races when he has picked up a win before, he was held by team mate Chavanel as usual in the 3 days of de panne. He did well here last year but in my view he was in much better order last year to challenge this year he will be more useful committing to Chavanels chances.
L.Paolini (50/1 paddypower) The Italian has surprised with a strong season for Katusha normally quite till further into the classics season. He was a strong 7th here last year His win in the Omloop showed how though he is and he should be able to show something in a race that should suit his qualities. He did well in e3 and san remo but was a bit down field in Gent Wevelgem.
H.Haussler (50/1 various) Haussler has been good for the move to his new team IAM, and has seemed to find some sort of form that means 2013 could see some of his best form. He was 30th in the bunch last year, 61st year before. He has shown signs that he may be returning to near the form of his Cervelo days when he was 2nd here. His 4th in his last race was his strongest showing so far as he put in digs and got involved in creating the winning break. His 11th in e3 and 13th in San Remo leave little doubt that he has a card to play.
S.Langeveld (66/1 boylesports) 5th in this in 2011, he failed to make the finish in 2012. however 2012 was not a good one in general and things are looking much brighter this season for the Dutch rider. His 23rd in San Remo was improved on with a noticeable 5th in e3. But again the non finish at Gent will put off some people but again conditions were far from ideal.
Ja Flecha (66/1 bet365) Unlike many of his fellow countrymen he excels in the Belgium classics, 20th here last year as a member of a strong sky line up His best was a 3rd in 2008. A move away from Sky to allow him to race more for himself and while he had been bit quiet he showed face with his 5th in Gent coming into this.
I.Stannard (80/1 paddypower) Considered more of a strong man who can be the ultimate helper to his team, he was gifted the chance to show what he could do in the horrible conditions in San Remo, he duly obliged and got away with Chavanel and played a part in how the finish turned out. Hes super strong and could well cause some trouble to bigger names if allowed to make a late move. He was 57th here last year but given more of a leaders role he could fare much better.

andy69

Rode the Flanders Sportive today and I have to say that I've never experienced anything like the cobbles here - incredible*. Every bit of strength I had was being sapped out on the flat cobble sections. Funny enough the climbs were ok (even managed 100% the way up the Pattenberg, no stops, avoiding people on the ground, people walking, slipping, falling, wobbling, legs being thrown over saddles and whatever else ye can think of that might block your route up! )

I have so much respect for the Pros to be racing over the cobbles - even to watch the local club lads belting past me like the roads were flat, and me bouncing all over the place!). Can only imagine how fast the Pros fly over these sections!

Can't wait now to see the race in the morning and soak up the atmosphere!! Beer tents and DJ's are already set up on the climbs!!
Great buzz already this afternoon!

* I hear the Roubaix cobbles are at a whole other level of toughness, but that's for 2014

manafana

andy69 wrote: »

Rode the Flanders Sportive today and I have to say that I've never experienced anything like the cobbles here - incredible*. Every bit of strength I had was being sapped out on the flat cobble sections. Funny enough the climbs were ok (even managed 100% the way up the Pattenberg, no stops, avoiding people on the ground, people walking, slipping, falling, wobbling, legs being thrown over saddles and whatever else ye can think of that might block your route up! )

I have so much respect for the Pros to be racing over the cobbles - even to watch the local club lads belting past me like the roads were flat, and me bouncing all over the place!). Can only imagine how fast the Pros fly over these sections!

Can't wait now to see the race in the morning and soak up the atmosphere!! Beer tents and DJ's are already set up on the climbs!!
Great buzz already this afternoon!

* I hear the Roubaix cobbles are at a whole other level of toughness, but that's for 2014

congrats man, yeah those muurs can be terrible when people are blocking way thats half the battle. The roubaix cobble sections are longer and the cobbles are bigger and your going over them so much faster. smooth pedalling is key otherwise your chain jumps off

dastardly00

Tom Boonen has crashed out

Morrisseeee

dastardly00 wrote: »

Tom Boonen has crashed out

WFT ?!?

edit: or should that be WTF !?!

dastardly00

The Omega Pharma-Quick Step team has issued a brief statement after Boonen's crash:
"Boonen has a contusion at his left hip, as well as a wound on his left elbow. He also has a contusion and a wound on his right knee that required a few stitches. Boonen is now undergoing X-rays to exclude any fractures. More information will be released as it becomes available during the day."

drogdub

Morrisseeee wrote: »

WFT ?!?

And done for the spring. Snooker just finished so about to start on eurosport.

Morrisseeee

Yikes poor Tom

Here's Luca T's (Strava link) ride from last year, and his telemetry overlaid on the ES live coverage, interesting to see the speed/gradient/power etc.

manafana

can one mods insert the spoiler warning in the thread title just in case someone does click in.

Some tight areas their thru twon that puit two men on the floor, their is quiet few cobble sections at moment but nothing too serious.

wheelhugger

Does anyone know if any other channels are showing the race? I only have FTA channels and have no access to Eurosport.

Dermot Illogical

wheelhugger wrote: »

Does anyone know if any other channels are showing the race? I only have FTA channels and have no access to Eurosport.

Not much good to you at the moment but if you want to watch the cycley stuff for free I'd suggest pointing a satellite dish at hotbird. Rai Sport 2 shows a lot of races FTA.

wheelhugger

A nice project for next spring

Dermot Illogical

wheelhugger wrote: »

A nice project for next spring

Gives you plenty time to brush up on your Italian while you're at it..

Beasty

manafana wrote: »

can one mods insert the spoiler warning in the thread title just in case someone does click in.

Best way to get our attention is to report a post - we don't necessarily read everything posted;)

dastardly00

Carnage on the Koppenberg! Half the peloton walking up it!

Captain Havoc

Starting to get tasty there now.

Morrisseeee

If something doesn't happen soon, it'll be a big bunch sprint !

Morrisseeee

...............and we've started

Cancellara looks strong, Sagan was not impressive on those climbs.

Beasty

Eurosport Commentry team banned for advocating the murder of Sagan ...

Morrisseeee

...........and he's gone on the Paterberg (amazing what a 400m climb can do!)