Lay of the Festival/Festival Lays

carpothepunk

Sorry if there is a thread already.

MTOY, Fly both hefty lays for myself.

MTOY is a daft price, think he will be bigger on the day. 5/2 maybe. Still underpriced IMO. Have layed at 2.79. Anyone have a keen lay?

mdwexford

Overturn.

slaneylad

Does this count?

Slattsy

Pont Alexandre.

jimjamcos

MTOY

sting60

Lay=First Lieutenant ,Long Run and Sir Des Champs.Banker=Salsify.

Colonel Sanders

The ground being soft changes everything really.

It was Hurricane Fly but not any more.

restingpilgrim

The fact that the ground is likely to be very soft on the first day means Overturn has to be the lay of the meeting. Can see this going off at 4/1 or bigger. They have been ducking soft all winter with the horse and apparently Donld McCain called in to Cheltenham on his way home from Chepstow and his heart sank when he saw how soft the ground was. Could even be a place lay.

RichieLawlor

Going stick at Cheltenham reportedly 5.7. It was 5.8 for the paddypower meeting. In the PP Gold Cup only 6/18 horses completed the race.

sting60

Talk sport this morning Paul Nicholls says the speed horses are in big trouble as the ground will suit stamina horses."Our weather expert predicted this weather weeks back and its the reason Zarkander runs in the Champion hurdle rather than the World hurdle,he is now a very big player indeed.I can even say its going to be on the heavy side of soft and very tacky,It will take some getting comming up that hill".So if Nicholls is correct look for horses who have won over further than the race entered.

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Going stick at Cheltenham reportedly 5.7. It was 5.8 for the paddypower meeting. In the PP Gold Cup only 6/18 horses completed the race.

Throws me off for the whole week tbh

Rarely punt much when the going is too extreme. With the winter we've all had it might not be the biggest if surprises. I was liking First L for the Ryanair but I'll wait til the day to see how soft it is by Thursday

RichieLawlor

sting60 wrote: »

Talk sport this morning Paul Nicholls says the speed horses are in big trouble as the ground will suit stamina horses."Our weather expert predicted this weather weeks back and its the reason Zarkander runs in the Champion hurdle rather than the World hurdle,he is now a very big player indeed.I can even say its going to be on the heavy side of soft and very tacky,It will take some getting comming up that hill".So if Nicholls is correct look for horses who have won over further than the race entered.

Makes Hurricane Fly an odds on shot in my opinion.

UrbanSea

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Going stick at Cheltenham reportedly 5.7. It was 5.8 for the paddypower meeting. In the PP Gold Cup only 6/18 horses completed the race.

That was absolutely terrible ground. Positive for my Houblon des Obeaux, negative for my Binocular bet, no real difference to Fruity O'Rooney

I was wrong yesterday, Cause of Causes still has a supreme entry. Could run well in that ground and 33/1 looks a big each way price

carpothepunk

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Makes Hurricane Fly an odds on shot in my opinion.

If they crawl the first mile, he goes odds on IR. I have no idea where the pace comes from.

Gringo180

carpothepunk wrote: »

If they crawl the first mile, he goes odds on IR. I have no idea where the pace comes from.

Countrywide Flame will no doubt make the running, Ill be shocked if they crawl along to be honest.

kfallon

Gringo180 wrote: »

Countrywide Flame will no doubt make the running, Ill be shocked if they crawl along to be honest.

I came to this assumption myself last night, CF will be in big trouble and may as well not turn up if there is no pace. He'll have to make it.

Lay of the festival for me is Dynaste!

carpothepunk

Kfallon, you asked about Golantilla in the Bumper thread. He made it over safe and sound this morning. Sorry to go slightly off topic.

Interesting to hear the CF making it angle. I think its the most interesting race of the week. I price him up around 3/1, 7/2, HF that is, so hes a lay for me.

Gringo180

Back on topic.

My lay of the festival would be Quevega & Hurricane Fly.

carpothepunk

Interesting, however, that John Quinn said he wasn't giving his horses a chance against Grade 1 horses by making the running. Suggests CF doesnt make it. This probably belongs in the CH thread now.

SRFC

How many of ye are actually going to lay these lays of the festival? is it another normal punting with usual staking plan or is everyone going mad for the week because its Cheltenham

carpothepunk

SRFC wrote: »

How many of ye are actually going to lay these lays of the festival? is it another normal punting with usual staking plan or is everyone going mad for the week because its Cheltenham

I reckon 70% of my trading is a lay, or a back to lay. Absolutely laying these. MTOY is a strong lay for me.

SRFC

carpothepunk wrote: »

I reckon 70% of my trading is a lay, or a back to lay. Absolutely laying these. MTOY is a strong lay for me.

He's 10 lb clear on ratings I was reading and is 2/1 to lay yet sprinter is 8lb clear and is 2/7,I wouldnt lay him id rather try get something into the frame with the 5 places bet with hills.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

He's 10 lb clear on ratings I was reading and is 2/1 to lay yet sprinter is 8lb clear and is 2/7,I wouldnt lay him id rather try get something into the frame with the 5 places bet with hills.

Geraghty has ridden MTOY and Jezki and says he couldn't back MTOY. Henderson has also been saying he's unsure about how he'll cope with the hill at preview nights. You've got 2 progressive horses in Jezki and Un Atout running for you and a horse in Champagne Fever who's sure to take MTOY out of his comfort zone in his preferred conditions.

sting60

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Makes Hurricane Fly an odds on shot in my opinion.

My own opinion is Nicholls goes a bit over the top.If he is right about the ground,Richie you are spot on.

SRFC

You can lay everything Matt Williams tips up on ATR tonight because he wouldnt tip sh*t out've a bucket how hes a pro punter is a mystery think he got a right few quid on a 1000/1 in running winner and it set him up.

jimjamcos

SRFC wrote: »

You can lay everything Matt Williams tips up on ATR tonight because he wouldnt tip sh*t out've a bucket how hes a pro punter is a mystery think he got a right few quid on a 1000/1 in running winner and it set him up.

Graham Cunningham is fairly dire at the ole tipping! The Morning Line crew bar Fitzgerald must be on a retainer with bookmakers!

BQQ

Sir Des champs is my lay of the week.

Generally, Lexus form is not good enough and he couldn't even win that.

prettyboy81

My lay of the week is in the 1st race My Tent or Yours....

mailburner

mtoy at the price now
be too big tomorrow i think

sir des champs lay of the week for me
will be behind bobs and silviniaco imo for definite and
probably long run so will consider a place lay on that one
dont understand the price on that one, very overated

tempted to lay grandouet for a place also as i see
zark and fly finishing ahead and maybe one more
might be a bit big now though given its a huge drifter

Imhof Tank

Arvika is a place lay IMO.

Dont like his technique over a fence at all and will be surprised if he completes.

handsomecake

hurricane fly

Gringo180

Gringo180 wrote: »

Back on topic.

My lay of the festival would be Quevega & Hurricane Fly.

:o

carpothepunk

Got one beat anyway, but Ruby did well on HF. They set it up for him in front, cutting eachothers throats.

mailburner

boston bob tomorrow at 10/3

lay of the year
how on earth is this so short?

Johner

mailburner wrote: »

boston bob tomorrow at 10/3

lay of the year
how on earth is this so short?

It's a poor race.

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

It's a poor race.

Shocking renewal

I've 10/1 Boston Bob. On one hand not confident but on the other hand I'd struggle to back anything in it had I not got that virtual docket in my virtual pocket

mailburner

Johner wrote: »

It's a poor race.

wont get near unioniste for one

horse is so overated imo
last two runs wont get him a place here even
with a step in trip maybe suiting

mailburner

poor run from unioniste but you guys were
spot on about bob just a horrible way to lose

i wouldnt have got involved laying at 5s but thought 10/3
was a bit short
i got 4s on union and thought ew was a safe bet
but never travelling
apart from the bumper its the worst race for me
at the festival
layed bobs worth in this last year
denman the only winner ive backed for this race since 2000
imagine what denman would have done to this lot...