Saturday 2/3

longshotvalue

2:55 Doncaster

Quentin Collonges looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He was poor in his last run, but not so bad first time out this year over this course. He has 2 previous wins here and will like the good ground tomorrow. If his jumping can improve he will be in with a great chance here on Minimum weight. He has been better after a small break before, and this is only this 3rd run this year. 12/1 looks a nice bit of value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go of at 7/1or less.


2 Points win 12/1 various
3:30 Doncaster

Cockney Trucker also looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He has been a very consistent hurdler until this year, but back here on decent ground of what looks a great mark, with Tony McCoy up the 20/1 with Paddy Power surly won’t last long. If he is to get into any Handicap at the festival he will need to get a win here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

UrbanSea

11/1 is gone but this was earlier

Micheal Flips Newbury 3.50 11/1 William Hill
As mentioned my fancy for the Byrne Plate, there is a chance that he won’t get into the race at present and if he wins tomorrow he’d be guaranteed entry thanks to a five pound penalty he would receive. A talented gelding, it’s a bit disappointing that he only has five wins to his name out of 29 runs, with two of those victories in two mile novice hurdles back in 2008 and was fancied for that season’s Supreme Novices’ at the Festival, finishing tenth as a 9/1 shot behind Go Native. Contested a couple of competitive handicap hurdle for the next two seasons, winning once at Kempton in January 2010 over an extended 2 ½ miles off a mark of 137, winning by a very cosy eight lengths in a race that’s worked out very well, with the runner up winning a Graduation Chase at Kempton and a Cheltenham handicap chase off 148.

Was understandably well hit by the handicapper for that and went up ten pounds, and ran a big race at that year’s festival in the Coral Cup, finishing forth to Spirit River off of his revised mark. He wasn’t as good the following year, firstly being beaten on his return in a novice chase, before looking a non stayer in two 3 mile handicap hurdles, one of them being the Pertemps at the festival, though did run well in a competitive 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle at Ascot in April 2011 off a mark of 145, beaten around four lengths.
Went chasing the following season and proved himself to be a smart novice, finishing a decent second behind the comfortable winner Cue Card (favourite for the Ryanair) at Cheltenham first time out over fences, finishing ahead of Gold Cup fancy Silviniaco Conti. Went one better next time out at Ascot, beating a good horse in Ackertac by a cosy 2 ½ lengths.

He did disappoint next time out, however behind Zaynar over that course and distance, seeming to run too bad to be true. Had four more starts last season, running disappointing in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 138, but did win next time out off this mark at Taunton in a race that’s strong form, with the runner up The Cockney Mackem running second in the Byrne Plate at the Festival last year off a six pound higher mark (pair clear). He was then second to a really good horse in For Non Stop in a Grade 1 over this course and distance, who absolutely hacked up in a Graded Ascot handicap off a mark of 151(now rated in the 160s), before he finished that season never involved in the Jewson at the Festival behind Sir Des Champs.

He’s been disappointing this season, running ok first time out at Ascot over an extended two miles off 146, beaten nine lengths, before pulling up in atrocious ground in the Paddy Power behind Al Ferof, though didn’t run all that badly back down in trip behind Ulck Du Lin off 143, beaten six lengths and the winner went in next time out off a ten pound higher mark.

Ran poorly next two starts, first behind Unioniste on heavy going at Cheltenham and then when he pulled up behind Big Fella Thanks at Wincanton (well backed). That said, he was given a spin around Kempton in a jumper’s bumper and ran well, finishing a close forth. Suspicions are he hasn’t been seen to best effect on the ground this year (won on good to firm before) and with the drying out ground tomorrow and his mark of 137, the last one he won on, he could be a massive danger tomorrow, before hopefully going on to the Byrne Plate. For that reason I’d take the 33/1 for that race before he runs tomorrow, if he wins he’d be half the price.


Mr Moonshine 2.55 Doncaster 8/1
This is a horse I’ve been following for quite a while and put him up two starts ago. To save me having to type again here’s what I said:


A winning pointer, he showed plenty of promise in a couple of novice hurdles over two and a half miles in 2010, including when second first time out in a maiden at Southwell, before going one better next time out at Wetherby, leading from pillar to post to beat Quo Video a comfortable ten lengths. Didn't set the world alight next two starts, but ran ok when 15 lengths behind Cue Card, before making a satisfactory start to chasing, finishing runner up in his first start over fences at Market Rasen that summer. Switched back to hurdles after that, he left a real lasting impression first time in a handicap over an extended three miles in a Pertemps qualifier, again leading before being heavily eased after the last to win by a very easy four lengths off a mark of 120.

Disappointing that he didn't go on from that run next three starts over hurdles, he returned to form at the end of 2011, making all to win a 2 and a half mile novice chase at Carlisle by a very comfortable 15 lengths, beating a 149 rated horse in Hidden Keel. Made it two from two for the season next time out in a 2 and three quarter mile chase at Haydock under his usual front running tactics, ten lengths too good for Bold Addition. However, you'd have to put him down as a bit of a disappointment for the rest of the season, stepping out of novice company next time out in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase over 2 and a half miles, beaten a respectable third by Gauvain off level weights, though it's possible he's better over three miles.

Ran three times after that last season, well beaten by Grands Crus in the Feltham at Kempton last Boxing Day, before returning to hurdles in a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier off a mark of 139, beaten about six miles by Grand Vision who went on to be placed in the Albert Bartlett. A similar scenario awaited him at Cheltenham in the RSA, being well outclassed.

However, returned this season with a good run over hurdles in a handicap at Wetherby over 2 and three quarter miles as a well backed 9/2 favourite off a mark of 135. Winner did it well enough off a mark of 112, and whilst he pulled up last time out, the third that day did run a good second next time out to be beaten a neck behind the progressive Monetary Fund. Switched to fences last time out at Carlisle, ran a very good race to be beaten around 8 lengths by Bold Sir Brian (gave him two pounds), who looks to be a very smart horse, with him absolutely hacking up in a Listed chase at Sandown subsequently, whilst the second Rival D'estruval also bolted in last time out at Kelso.

Mr Moonshine went on to run in an ultra competitive Fixed Brush handicap hurdle last time out at Haydock off his hurdles rating of 139. Was sixth that day, beaten around 16 lengths but he ran much better than the distance suggested, leading to two out before weakening. Possible that the heavy ground doesn't see him in his best light, switched back to fences tomorrow he has a massive chance in a weaker race.

Form of his third to Bold Sir Brian is absolutely rock solid, stepped up to three miles and better ground means he has a big chance in what is a wide open race. 8/1 is a fair price each way.''


He was very well punted that day into 9/2 joint fav but disappointed, travelled ok but weakened quite tamely. Was rated 143 that day and had one more run since at Wetherby on Stephen’s Day (again really well backed) in really atrocious ground off a mark of 140, holding every chance before weakening on the ground behind Cape Tribulation who has really franked the form well subsequently winning the Argento Chase (grade 2) at Cheltenham and is en route to line out in the Gold Cup.

The handicapper was quite generous in dropping him a pound for that run. This looks a competitive enough race but hopefully he can deliver on the promise he’s been hinting at.

UrbanSea

Aidan are you backing Tartak

rossom

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Aidan are you backing Tartak

He's a horse I've flagged up for Cheltenham in the Byrne Plate. Cannot see him winning tomorrow over a trip that will stretch him and will get him a 5lb penalty. Wouldn't back against him but won't be backing him either.

rossom

Surely Toubab has to be a big lay tomorrow. Rated 140 and I cannot for the life of me see him winning tomorrow and picking up a penalty for the Grand Annual. Will definitely get in off his current mark and was brought down when still going well in the race last year off a mark of 143

rossom

3.15 Newbury

Sporting Boy 7/1

I have been oh so impressed by Michael Blake's upwardly mobile 5 year old on his last two starts and despite having to shoulder a stone more than his latest victory I still think he's well capable of winning off a mark of 129. Moreover, he'll probably need a penalty to get into the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and I've backed him at 33/1 in that event as he'll surely be heading there if successful tomorrow. A winner of 4 of his last 5 handicaps (the one he didn't win he was out for a spin), the actual form of his victories is nothing out of the ordinary but the visual nature of his success has been very captivating and I think he's a horse of huge, huge potential. After the aforementioned spin, he came out 7 days later in October last year when he won in facile fashion off a mark 110 at Ludlow under tomorrow's pilot Tom Scudamore and followed that victory up in even more impressive fashion 8 days later at Wetherby when beating the re-opposing Meetings Man by a comfortable 8 lengths. The 3rd Lightning Rod was beaten 1L off a 1lb higher mark on his only subsequent start whilst the 4th Laterly was a wide margin winner off 3lb lower mark at Leicester a month later and given that Sporting Boy disposed of those rivals with such ease emphasises how well handicapped a horse he is. He's been off the track for 120 days which is by far my biggest concern to his chances tomorrow as connections felt he needed a run to get him right after a 5 month break earlier in the season but I don't think they'd run him in a race as hot as this if he wasn't fit. Tom Scudamore, who is 2-2 on board, takes the ride once again and I'm confident that Sporting Boy will continue his progression and complete his hat trick before, hopefully, running a big race at the Cheltenham Festival.

longshotvalue

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Aidan are you backing Tartak

He wouldnt be my type of bet at 9/2. I might have him at the festival at a decent price..

UrbanSea

I couldn't remember who mentioned him. Healys Bar could run into a place in the second last at Navan tomorrow at 25/1, in poor form lately but could be well handicappe

longshotvalue

2:40 Newbury

Idarah is a purely gut feeling selection. He has liked decent ground in the past and this veteran’s race which hopefully will be run at a slower pace could well suit him in this step up in trip. He is just about down to his last winning mark from earlier this year, and looks worth a min bet at a very decent price.

½ Point win 20/1 Various

Backstreet Moyes

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

I couldn't remember who mentioned him. Days Hotel could run into a place in the second last at Navan tomorrow at 25/1, in poor form lately but could be well handicappe

Did you get mixed up can't find Days Hotel anywhere. I usually get word when he runs.

UrbanSea

Yeah sorry I meant Healy's Bar. No idea why I said Days Hotel, was looking at him last night must have been it.

mike65

A mix of weight, form and hope.

DONCASTER 16:05 NOVICE HURDLE 2m 3f 110yds
02-03-2013 16:05
Win or E/W
Captain Kelly @ 3.50 (GP) (if the fav fails)

DONCASTER 14:55 HANDICAP CHASE 3m 2f
02-03-2013 14:55
Win or E/W
Court By Surprise @ 8.50 (GP) (only 2nd run post wind op, trainer knocking on door)

DONCASTER 14:20 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 110yds
02-03-2013 14:20
Win or E/W
Prince Of Dreams @ 3.25 (GP) (recent form and weight vis-a-vis the fav)

NEWBURY 15:50 GREATWOOD GOLD CUP H'CAP CHASE 2m 4f 0y
02-03-2013 15:50
Win or E/W
Midnight Sail @ 11.00 (GP) (hope of upward path off low weight)

NEWBURY 14:05 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 0f 110y
02-03-2013 14:05
Win or E/W
Monetary Fund @ 11.00 (GP) (improved going, weight, hope)

superfurry1

Went with Ballytober in the first at Newbury at 12-1 that is all.:o

UrbanSea

Did a small bet on Destroyer Deployed in the first at Newbury 10/1, Never really lived up to the potential he showed when runner up in the Champion Bumper behind Cheltenian but the form of his third at Cheltenham in December is very strong with At Fishers Cross winning a Grade 2 since and the runner up won a Grade 3 and the forth ran won the Welsh Champion Hurdle off a mark of 140. Hoping he improves for better ground and should be there or thereabouts with that form absolutely rock solid

sfwcork

Kickingthelily-4.00lingfield

Pulled out during the week from another AW race.Hated the surface last time and even though 2lb higher than her winning mark last time she is now 7lb better off from loyalty who beat her by less than 3ls last time.


Imaginery Diva -2.15lingfield 9/2pp Each Way

Multiply winner over 5f and takes a drop in grade.the jocks weight allowance puts this runner at last 8lb well in .this looks a super each way bet in a shocking race

superfurry1

Bob Tucker in the last at Newbury Cant believe 9-2 available looks like an even money shot to me what am i missing?:D
Doncaster is what im missing maybe.

kksaints

Did a small Lucky 31 for fun. Eduard 3 40 Kelso, Courage 2 00 Navan, Garynella, 3 50 Newbury, Join Together 2 55 Doncaster, Harry Topper 4 15 Kelso.

Hope ye took the 6/4 that was available yesterday on Harry Topper he is around 5/6 now.

BQQ

sfwcork wrote: »

Kickingthelily-4.00lingfield

Pulled out during the week from another AW race.Hated the surface last time and even though 2lb higher than her winning mark last time she is now 7lb better off from loyalty who beat her by less than 3ls last time.

Was looking at this too. 8lbs better off by my calculations.
Definitely worth an each way bet.


Also like Calgary Bay in the 14:55 at Doncaster.
Two wins and a 2nd in 3 runs here.
McCoy rides for the first time since 2009 (won twice on him)

mr.jingle

Sadler's Rock running today in Dubai Rossom just in case you missed him. You really fancied that horse to do well last year if I remember correctly.

UrbanSea

Talk about a disappointing horse last year. Backed him the day I was at Longchamp, maybe it was the ground but he looked a tired horse. Hopefully can run well today, is it tapeta or turf he's going on

Gringo180

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Talk about a disappointing horse last year. Backed him the day I was at Longchamp, maybe it was the ground but he looked a tired horse. Hopefully can run well today, is it tapeta or turf he's going on

Turf.

The horse just didnt look right towards the end of last year, I think The Gold Cup took alot out of him and maybe should of had a few months off after it.

Pinesky

mr.jingle wrote: »

Sadler's Rock running today in Dubai Rossom just in case you missed him. You really fancied that horse to do well last year if I remember correctly.

Is this his main target in Dubai or is there a bigger race there in the next few weeks. Given the ground and his form superiority he would be a steal @ 4/1 if today is his target.

UrbanSea

Pinesky wrote: »

Is this his main target in Dubai or is there a bigger race there in the next few weeks. Given the ground and his form superiority he would be a steal @ 4/1 if today is his target.

The Dubai Gold Cup on Super Saturday when they the world cup and Sheema and other group 1s. I'd be a bit worried backing him on really fast ground over 14 furlongs, he is really slow, even for a stayer

Pinesky

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

The Dubai Gold Cup on Super Saturday when they the world cup and Sheema and other group 1s. I'd be a bit worried backing him on really fast ground over 14 furlongs, he is really slow, even for a stayer

Thanks for that . He might need this anyway to blow the cobwebs away.
With Jackalberru doubtful it could be interesting .

Frankie Lee

The ride on Hurricane Sky in the first at Navan today from Mark Walsh was extremely tender. He was keeping him out of contention for the most part and only decided to use the whip once the winner was clear. The horse is beautifully bred and could easily have troubled the winner if he was trying. Unfortunately you can pick out these type of runners in almost every maiden hurdle run here.

Edit: I didn't back it.

UrbanSea

Disappointed with Destroyer Deployed, his jumping was awful, didn't take one hurdle slickly

superfurry1

My fella fell did'nt see the race though hate when it happens hope he is ok though.

Gringo180

aidankkk wrote: »

2:55 Doncaster

Quentin Collonges looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He was poor in his last run, but not so bad first time out this year over this course. He has 2 previous wins here and will like the good ground tomorrow. If his jumping can improve he will be in with a great chance here on Minimum weight. He has been better after a small break before, and this is only this 3rd run this year. 12/1 looks a nice bit of value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go of at 7/1or less.


2 Points win 12/1 various
3:30 Doncaster

Cockney Trucker also looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He has been a very consistent hurdler until this year, but back here on decent ground of what looks a great mark, with Tony McCoy up the 20/1 with Paddy Power surly won’t last long. If he is to get into any Handicap at the festival he will need to get a win here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

Super shout man

Hulk Hands

That was phenomenal from Ruby. New his horse would pick up if challenged so dragged him across. At least as strong in the finish as AP too

Overthelast

Cracking finish at Donny there

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

2:55 Doncaster

Quentin Collonges looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He was poor in his last run, but not so bad first time out this year over this course. He has 2 previous wins here and will like the good ground tomorrow. If his jumping can improve he will be in with a great chance here on Minimum weight. He has been better after a small break before, and this is only this 3rd run this year. 12/1 looks a nice bit of value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go of at 7/1or less.


2 Points win 12/1 various
3:30 Doncaster

Cockney Trucker also looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He has been a very consistent hurdler until this year, but back here on decent ground of what looks a great mark, with Tony McCoy up the 20/1 with Paddy Power surly won’t last long. If he is to get into any Handicap at the festival he will need to get a win here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

So close ... I'd have been sick as I'm away and didn't have the double.

Still :-)..

jimjamcos

aidankkk wrote: »

2:55 Doncaster

Quentin Collonges looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He was poor in his last run, but not so bad first time out this year over this course. He has 2 previous wins here and will like the good ground tomorrow. If his jumping can improve he will be in with a great chance here on Minimum weight. He has been better after a small break before, and this is only this 3rd run this year. 12/1 looks a nice bit of value and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go of at 7/1or less.


2 Points win 12/1 various
3:30 Doncaster

Cockney Trucker also looks to have been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. He has been a very consistent hurdler until this year, but back here on decent ground of what looks a great mark, with Tony McCoy up the 20/1 with Paddy Power surly won’t last long. If he is to get into any Handicap at the festival he will need to get a win here.

1 Point EW 20/1 Paddy Power

SUPER STUFF!!! Wish I'd followed you! :rolleyes:

mickey1979

well done aidan

BQQ

Great tipping Aidan.

Followed you on Cockney trucker. So close!


Sick I missed Pacha du Polder in the 3.50. Nicholls won 6 of last 8 runnings now. (had 2 running today and I only backed the other one)


edit:

Originally Posted by sfwcork

Kickingthelily-4.00lingfield

Pulled out during the week from another AW race.Hated the surface last time and even though 2lb higher than her winning mark last time she is now 7lb better off from loyalty who beat her by less than 3ls last time.



Originally Posted by BQQ

Was looking at this too. 8lbs better off by my calculations.
Definitely worth an each way bet.

Feeling a lot better now

sfwcork

sfwcork wrote: »

Kickingthelily-4.00lingfield

Pulled out during the week from another AW race.Hated the surface last time and even though 2lb higher than her winning mark last time she is now 7lb better off from loyalty who beat her by less than 3ls last time.


Imaginery Diva -2.15lingfield 9/2pp Each Way

Multiply winner over 5f and takes a drop in grade.the jocks weight allowance puts this runner at last 8lb well in .this looks a super each way bet in a shocking race

Pleasing

UrbanSea

Well done aidan. I only had tenners on today but these were my picks:

Johner

Some Tikket at 5/2 in the bumper. Was travelling sweetly before running out back in May. Joined Weld since.

Hulk Hands

Johner wrote: »

Some Tikket at 5/2 in the bumper. Was travelling sweetly before running out back in May. Joined Weld since.

I agree, I like him aswell

Hulk Hands

4/1 Guaranteed. I always worry when I see a Weld one drifting but he did that very easily

Johner

Delighted. Not sure how it was 7/2 but I won't complain. You could see from his debut that he travelled like a good horse. Looks a decent animal.

Edit 4/1. Nice.

ste2010

Well done Aido! Thank f*ck that's over...on an extremely bad run at the mill at the moment...no more util Cheltenham..or Aido tips up something again :-)

the groutch

gone for Shinken Otto in the last at Sedgefield tomorrow
this horse is the epitomy of "horses for courses", only up 2lb for his win over C&D in January and has an amateur jockey taking 10lb off.
looks overpriced at 5/1

lorenzo87

Hulk Hands wrote: »

That was phenomenal from Ruby. New his horse would pick up if challenged so dragged him across. At least as strong in the finish as AP too

Ruby had a better horse under him, that was the difference.
He ain't as strong as AP in a finish, but is a better jockey.
Most horses AP rides, they end up fooked for life, he gives them such a battering