Saturday 2nd February

rossom

3.45 Ffos Las

Cocacobana 11/1

I quite like the look of Peter Bowen's unexposed 8 year old who was quite progressive for Graeme McPherson last season over hurdles and if stripping fitter for his last run on stable debut on the back of a 9 month absence then I think he's going to run a big race. After making his debut back in March 2010 for Rebecca Curtis in a Bumper, Cocacobana joined Graeme McPherson after that and after nearly a year off and after running in three quick novice hurdles in the spring of 2011 and he made a winning handicap debut on the back of 7 month absence over an extended 2m4f at Uttoxeter in November 2011 off a mark of 100. Under 10lb claimer Killian Moore, Cocacobana came from the clouds that day to get up and score by a head as he certainly left the form of his novice hurdles behind. After slightly disappointing a month later when finishing 3rd at Haydock last year off a mark of 104, he improved again significantly to score off the same mark on his next start in February last year to score impressively by 8L and he followed that up with another victory off a mark of 112 a month later over 3m at Chepstow when putting in a very determined display to score by 1.5L in a race that looks pretty decent form. Cocacobana's final start for McPherson came off a mark of 120 at Cheltenham in April last year when a little disappointing before joining his current trainer.

Cocacobana's first start for the Bowen yard came over this C+D last month off a mark of 120 where he ran an encouraging race and I definitely felt he would strip fitter for the run (despite running well on the back of a break for McPherson). In the same race that tomorrow's favourite The Bear Trap won on the bridle, Cocacobana travelled quite sweetly for much of the race under Tom O'Brien and looked to have every chance at 3 out but he seemed a very weary horse on the run in as he made mistakes at the final two flights as he faded to a 13L beaten 4th. After being dropped 2lb for that run to a mark of 118, Cocacobana faces The Bear Trap on 13lb better terms and I think Peter Bowen's charges chances will hinge a lot on whether Rebecca Curtis's animal turns up in the same form or not as he would prove incredibly difficult to beat if returning in that same vain of form. However, given the swing in weights and my opinion that this 8 year old will come on significantly for the run I certainly think he is the value call in the race. However, I would definitely recommend perhaps having a cover bet or a bet W/O Fav as he could be settling for 2nd place. With only 11 starts to date, Cocacobana is certainly open to considerable improvement and is currently 3-6 in handicaps and I'm sure that there is more to come from him. He shouldn't have any issue with the testing conditions and given he has won over further if this race becomes a real slog it could well fall into his hands. Tom O'Brien takes the ride again and I'm confident of a big run at a nice price.

rossom

3.55 Wetherby

Cloudy Too 9/1

I'm quite interested in Sue Smith's 7 year old on just his 2nd start in handicaps over fences for whom Timmy Murphy is a very eye catching booking as he is having his first ride for the trainer, especially given his regular pilot Jonathan England is at the track. After showing some good form by winning a Novice Hurdle in impressive style and after a summer break, Sue Smith started the then 5 year old's chasing career at the end of 2011 where he failed to complete in 3 starts where poor jumping was a huge characteristic of his races and I think in hindsight he was probably sent over the larger obstacles a year too soon. He reverted back to hurdles for the rest of the season and after a couple of good efforts off marks of 122 he stepped up on those efforts in a big way when emphatically scoring by an eased down 12L off a mark of 121 which saw the handicapper up him a stone to a mark of 135 in March 2012. He had one more start off that mark over hurdles in April before he was off for the summer and sent back over fences where he made an excellent return to chasing by scoring by a going away 2.25L from his stablemate Vintage Star in a Beginners Chase over 2m4f at Carlisle. He jumped well throughout in the testing conditions and after being slightly outpaced his stamina kicked in as he forged clear in the run in. That looks very good form with the runner up subsequently blitzing a 5 runner field by a heavily eased 28L which has earned him a mark of 137 whilst the 16L beaten 3rd has gone close off a mark of 120 subsequently. Under a penalty, Cloudy Too was stepped up into a really hot looking Novice Chase over 3m at Doncaster where I don't think he was suited by making the running and I think he burned himself out trying to go with a couple of very talented horses in the shape of Rocky Creek and Mozoltov as he finished a nearly 20L beaten 4th but I don't think he lost much in defeat.

Cloudy Too's last start came on his handicap debut off his current mark of 129 in the North Yorkshire Grand National over nearly 10f than tomorrow's trip of an extended 2m4f where he was supported late on into a 10/1 chance. After settling in the rear of the field, he had just started to make some progress into midfield before I think he over-jumped the 10th flight as both horse and rider hit the deck. Luckily, he got up from the fall and given he's out less than a month later the mishap clearly hasn't left lasting damage. Although he's stepped significantly back in trip, he proved his effectiveness over it when scoring for the first time over fences and although I feel he'll be better over further the trip isn't much of a concern to me in these testing conditions. As stated, I find the booking of Timmy Murphy fascinating on what will be his first start for the trainer and I think he looks tailor made for Cloudy Too who should benefit from Murphy's hold up style of riding as he waits around for nearly 3 hours for this engagement. Based on what he has achieved over hurdles and fences to date, I certainly think he is up to defying a mark of 129 and I'm hoping they go a good clip in the conditions as a slog will suit him down to the ground. Although the trainer has a seemingly more fancied runner in the shape of Gansey in the race, I'm quite confident of a big showing from this unexposed 7 year old and if none the worse for his latest fall and if his jumping holds up I think he's going to be bang there at the finish and hopefully victorious at a nice price.

longshotvalue

2:05 Ffos Las


Tiger O’Toole stands out at a huge price as a decent bit of value here. He has been pretty good over fences particularly when second to Fingal Bay over this trip on soft ground. He is a capable hurdler and even though he is 4 lbs out of the weights he can be a rugged stayer on his day and could well run into a place here at what looks a big price 33/1.


1 Point win Betfair 40 1 Point place 8.4

2:40 Ffos Las

Our Island has been a very consistent horse in these types of races for the last year or so. Last time out he was 5th in the Welsh National and previous to that a decent 3rd in another testing event. He is out of the weights here but seems to me to have a great chance of staying onto a place at least.


1 Point EW 16/1 Generally

droidman123

Took a chance on grafite today (3.10 ffos las ) can spit the dummy out at times,but is a decent horse if in the mood. The soft/heavy going won't be a concern.backed e/w at 28/1.

Johner

On Borrowed Wings 9/2 - Wetherby 1.35

Looks to have a great chance.

Nulty

Johner wrote: »

On Borrowed Wings 9/2 - Wetherby 1.35

Looks to have a great chance.

A favourite of mine. Hope he goes well.

georgieM

Rossom do you fancy loyalty today you put it up fortnight ago

Johner

Nulty wrote: »

A favourite of mine. Hope he goes well.

Same.been backing it since it first raced. I knew the owner when he raced in Ireland, he lumped on at 20/1 when he won his bumper.

rossom

georgieM wrote: »

Rossom do you fancy loyalty today you put it up fortnight ago

Last run would put me off. They were checking out his heart before the race and he still ran after drifting from favourite out to 6/1 and he came nowhere surprisingly. I'd be very hard pressed to back him after that.

Graupel

Johner wrote: »

Same.been backing it since it first raced. I knew the owner when he raced in Ireland, he lumped on at 20/1 when he won his bumper.

Backed him by accident that day at my local track Wexford, Wrote down the wrong number! Always had a soft spot since.

Nulty

Gone off Alfie Spinner before his last run. Bad favourite on recent form

Goldcupfav

One bet for me today. 3.35 at Sandown On Trend dont have time for a write up but beat Mr. Hyde by 19l in a novice chase a few runs back off level weights now receives 7lbs for him. Kempton track wasnt enough of a stamina test last time out finished that race flying at the end when looking booked for 3rd place. Ran off 127 that day runs off 131 today -3 today for jocks claim so only up 1lbs. Fav in race is unexposed type so will prob back at 11/2 with Lads in the w/o the fav market.

Nulty

I like both Cannington and Carruthers. Great result

Colonel Sanders

Tanerko Emery ran quite well off 135 & it may have been the trip that beat him

Ifandbutwhy not could be of interest in something like the county hurdle. He beat TE quite cosily giving it 5lbs in November. There was no pace at Sandown last time, if you forgive him that run there could still be races to be won with him off 130ish

UrbanSea

Itll be a poor race if Captain Conan wins at the festival. Don't like the horse and think hell be found out soon. Third Intention ran well in the Feltham and is a nice horse but far from a grade 1 horse

Colonel Sanders

I thought it was a strange race

Captain Conan had travelled & jumped very well in his 2 previous races over fences but did neither today. Can't have been the ground or track as he's won on soft & at the track.

SRFC

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Itll be a poor race if Captain Conan wins at the festival. Don't like the horse and think hell be found out soon. Third Intention ran well in the Feltham and is a nice horse but far from a grade 1 horse

How's that hinterland form looking now :rolleyes: CC butchered to win today and people arguing with me saying Hinterland was credible opposition to Simonsig ffs CC is not good enough and wont be winning any race at cheltenham Jewson or Arkle.

droidman123

SRFC wrote: »

How's that hinterland form looking now :rolleyes: CC butchered to win today and people arguing with me saying Hinterland was credible opposition to Simonsig ffs CC is not good enough and wont be winning any race at cheltenham Jewson or Arkle.

How long is this nonsense going to go on for??

UrbanSea

Yeah, but how far did Simonsig beat Hinterland?

SRFC

droidman123 wrote: »

How long is this nonsense going to go on for??

Do I have to ask your permission before I discuss horses form on here or something :rolleyes:


I'll take it to the simonsig thread but that run of CC proves it was a bad race where he beat Hinterland who some (not many) actually used the beating of hinterland at kempton to give Simonsig a rating and used it as a credible form line like really.

UrbanSea

You go on as if he was all out to best Hinterland, when in fact he gave him 11lbs and a 35 length beating on the bridle

droidman123

SRFC wrote: »

Do I have to ask your permission before I discuss horses form on here or something :rolleyes:


I'll take it to the simonsig thread but that run of CC proves it was a bad race where he beat Hinterland who some (not many) actually used the beating of hinterland at kempton to give Simonsig a rating and used it as a credible form line like really.

Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but you seem to have an obsession with hinterlands form. I think its unrealistic to compare simonsigs formline with hinterlands.

droidman123

Pity makethemostofnow fell, he seemed to be going reasonably well, anyway, we will never know what might have happened. At least his price wont change for the 4 miler at cheltenham but he needs to get his jumping together.

fangee

SRFC wrote: »

Do I have to ask your permission before I discuss horses form on here or something :rolleyes:


I'll take it to the simonsig thread but that run of CC proves it was a bad race where he beat Hinterland who some (not many) actually used the beating of hinterland at kempton to give Simonsig a rating and used it as a credible form line like really.

Your tone is not great SRFC.

You've been called out on the "saturday 26th of january" thread and you don't look good for it in my opinion.

Goldcupfav

Goldcupfav wrote: »

One bet for me today. 3.35 at Sandown On Trend dont have time for a write up but beat Mr. Hyde by 19l in a novice chase a few runs back off level weights now receives 7lbs for him. Kempton track wasnt enough of a stamina test last time out finished that race flying at the end when looking booked for 3rd place. Ran off 127 that day runs off 131 today -3 today for jocks claim so only up 1lbs. Fav in race is unexposed type so will prob back at 11/2 with Lads in the w/o the fav market.

Boom..

hawkhead

Goldcupfav wrote: »

One bet for me today. 3.35 at Sandown On Trend dont have time for a write up but beat Mr. Hyde by 19l in a novice chase a few runs back off level weights now receives 7lbs for him. Kempton track wasnt enough of a stamina test last time out finished that race flying at the end when looking booked for 3rd place. Ran off 127 that day runs off 131 today -3 today for jocks claim so only up 1lbs. Fav in race is unexposed type so will prob back at 11/2 with Lads in the w/o the fav market.

Great call mate.
Backed him with and without the fav. Nice one

hawkhead

rossom wrote: »

3.45 Ffos Las

Cocacobana 11/1

I quite like the look of Peter Bowen's unexposed 8 year old who was quite progressive for Graeme McPherson last season over hurdles and if stripping fitter for his last run on stable debut on the back of a 9 month absence then I think he's going to run a big race. After making his debut back in March 2010 for Rebecca Curtis in a Bumper, Cocacobana joined Graeme McPherson after that and after nearly a year off and after running in three quick novice hurdles in the spring of 2011 and he made a winning handicap debut on the back of 7 month absence over an extended 2m4f at Uttoxeter in November 2011 off a mark of 100. Under 10lb claimer Killian Moore, Cocacobana came from the clouds that day to get up and score by a head as he certainly left the form of his novice hurdles behind. After slightly disappointing a month later when finishing 3rd at Haydock last year off a mark of 104, he improved again significantly to score off the same mark on his next start in February last year to score impressively by 8L and he followed that up with another victory off a mark of 112 a month later over 3m at Chepstow when putting in a very determined display to score by 1.5L in a race that looks pretty decent form. Cocacobana's final start for McPherson came off a mark of 120 at Cheltenham in April last year when a little disappointing before joining his current trainer.

Cocacobana's first start for the Bowen yard came over this C+D last month off a mark of 120 where he ran an encouraging race and I definitely felt he would strip fitter for the run (despite running well on the back of a break for McPherson). In the same race that tomorrow's favourite The Bear Trap won on the bridle, Cocacobana travelled quite sweetly for much of the race under Tom O'Brien and looked to have every chance at 3 out but he seemed a very weary horse on the run in as he made mistakes at the final two flights as he faded to a 13L beaten 4th. After being dropped 2lb for that run to a mark of 118, Cocacobana faces The Bear Trap on 13lb better terms and I think Peter Bowen's charges chances will hinge a lot on whether Rebecca Curtis's animal turns up in the same form or not as he would prove incredibly difficult to beat if returning in that same vain of form. However, given the swing in weights and my opinion that this 8 year old will come on significantly for the run I certainly think he is the value call in the race. However, I would definitely recommend perhaps having a cover bet or a bet W/O Fav as he could be settling for 2nd place. With only 11 starts to date, Cocacobana is certainly open to considerable improvement and is currently 3-6 in handicaps and I'm sure that there is more to come from him. He shouldn't have any issue with the testing conditions and given he has won over further if this race becomes a real slog it could well fall into his hands. Tom O'Brien takes the ride again and I'm confident of a big run at a nice price.

That was a rather curious ride from O'Brien there

Colonel Sanders

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

You go on as if he was all out to best Hinterland, when in fact he gave him 11lbs and a 35 length beating on the bridle

Even if hinterland is rated 20lbs too high (which I don't think he is) Simonsig would be worthy of a conservative 160 rating

rossom

rossom wrote: »

3.55 Wetherby

Cloudy Too 9/1

I'm quite interested in Sue Smith's 7 year old on just his 2nd start in handicaps over fences for whom Timmy Murphy is a very eye catching booking as he is having his first ride for the trainer, especially given his regular pilot Jonathan England is at the track. After showing some good form by winning a Novice Hurdle in impressive style and after a summer break, Sue Smith started the then 5 year old's chasing career at the end of 2011 where he failed to complete in 3 starts where poor jumping was a huge characteristic of his races and I think in hindsight he was probably sent over the larger obstacles a year too soon. He reverted back to hurdles for the rest of the season and after a couple of good efforts off marks of 122 he stepped up on those efforts in a big way when emphatically scoring by an eased down 12L off a mark of 121 which saw the handicapper up him a stone to a mark of 135 in March 2012. He had one more start off that mark over hurdles in April before he was off for the summer and sent back over fences where he made an excellent return to chasing by scoring by a going away 2.25L from his stablemate Vintage Star in a Beginners Chase over 2m4f at Carlisle. He jumped well throughout in the testing conditions and after being slightly outpaced his stamina kicked in as he forged clear in the run in. That looks very good form with the runner up subsequently blitzing a 5 runner field by a heavily eased 28L which has earned him a mark of 137 whilst the 16L beaten 3rd has gone close off a mark of 120 subsequently. Under a penalty, Cloudy Too was stepped up into a really hot looking Novice Chase over 3m at Doncaster where I don't think he was suited by making the running and I think he burned himself out trying to go with a couple of very talented horses in the shape of Rocky Creek and Mozoltov as he finished a nearly 20L beaten 4th but I don't think he lost much in defeat.

Cloudy Too's last start came on his handicap debut off his current mark of 129 in the North Yorkshire Grand National over nearly 10f than tomorrow's trip of an extended 2m4f where he was supported late on into a 10/1 chance. After settling in the rear of the field, he had just started to make some progress into midfield before I think he over-jumped the 10th flight as both horse and rider hit the deck. Luckily, he got up from the fall and given he's out less than a month later the mishap clearly hasn't left lasting damage. Although he's stepped significantly back in trip, he proved his effectiveness over it when scoring for the first time over fences and although I feel he'll be better over further the trip isn't much of a concern to me in these testing conditions. As stated, I find the booking of Timmy Murphy fascinating on what will be his first start for the trainer and I think he looks tailor made for Cloudy Too who should benefit from Murphy's hold up style of riding as he waits around for nearly 3 hours for this engagement. Based on what he has achieved over hurdles and fences to date, I certainly think he is up to defying a mark of 129 and I'm hoping they go a good clip in the conditions as a slog will suit him down to the ground. Although the trainer has a seemingly more fancied runner in the shape of Gansey in the race, I'm quite confident of a big showing from this unexposed 7 year old and if none the worse for his latest fall and if his jumping holds up I think he's going to be bang there at the finish and hopefully victorious at a nice price.

20p Rule 4 but he did that nicely and will only improve over further.

Tom O'Brien gave Cococabana a very, very suspect ride to finish back in 3rd.

hawkhead

rossom wrote: »

20p Rule 4 but he did that nicely and will only improve over further.

Tom O'Brien gave Cococabana a very, very suspect ride to finish back in 3rd.

Couldn't agree more. Well done two good picks.

One thing I really don't understand is why Timmy Murphy doesn't get more rides.
He's my favourite jockey over fences

rossom

Cheers Hawkhead

Me neither. I think he's an excellent jockey.

Goldcupfav

Anyone got the result for the 4.20 at Ffos Las??

rossom

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Anyone got the result for the 4.20 at Ffos Las??

Ugly Bug won at 7/1 beating Cheat The Cheetah.

Colonel Sanders

Third Intention "only" went 1.03 in play. I thought it would actually have traded shorter.

Colonel Sanders

Goldcupfav wrote: »

One bet for me today. 3.35 at Sandown On Trend dont have time for a write up but beat Mr. Hyde by 19l in a novice chase a few runs back off level weights now receives 7lbs for him. Kempton track wasnt enough of a stamina test last time out finished that race flying at the end when looking booked for 3rd place. Ran off 127 that day runs off 131 today -3 today for jocks claim so only up 1lbs. Fav in race is unexposed type so will prob back at 11/2 with Lads in the w/o the fav market.

Nicely done

You too Rossom