Israel: Iran slowing nuclear program, won’t have bomb before 2015

cyberhog

It appears the Israelis have once again changed their minds about when Iran could develop a nuclear weapon.

Intelligence briefings given to McClatchy over the last two months have confirmed that various officials across Israel’s military and political echelons now think it’s unrealistic that Iran could develop a nuclear weapons arsenal before 2015. Others pushed the date back even further, to the winter of 2016.
...
"We can’t attribute the delays in Iran’s nuclear program to accidents and sabotage alone," he said. "There has not been the run towards a nuclear bomb that some people feared. There is a deliberate slowing on their end."

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/01/28/3818827/israel-iran-slowing-nuclear-program.html

Only five months ago Netanyahu said Iran was on the brink of nuclear bomb in six to seven months.

In his most specific comments on Iran's nuclear work, Netanyahu told CNN: "They're moving very rapidly to completing the enrichment of the uranium that they need to produce a nuclear bomb. In six months or so they'll be 90 percent of the way there."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/16/us-iran-nuclear-netanyahu-idUSBRE88F06P20120916


So once again the Israelis are pushing the date back just before the time arrives that Netanyahu predicted Iran would have a bomb. This has been Israel's standard practice since 1982, first they make a dire warning and then they push the date back just before the threat fails to materialise.

Israel's propaganda campaign against Iran is so transparent it's insulting and it astounds me that anyone still takes Netanyahu's warnings seriously.

Jaafa

The fact of the matter is Iran isn't looking to make a bomb and Israel knows it. It needs the excuse of an Iranian nuclear threat for political purposes and thus this game will continue until the US see's fit.

The Iranian nuclear threat brought to you by Israel since 1982.

Conmaicne Mara

I just wonder, hypothetically speaking, what some of you will say if Iran does develop a bomb?

That will be a fun day on here

Jonny7

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

I just wonder, hypothetically speaking, what some of you will say if Iran does develop a bomb?

That will be a fun day on here

The debate will instantly switch to the "X,Y, Z has them, why can't Iran"

Well apparently Iran is definitely not going to weaponise nor set itself up for quick preparation, I am just wondering how the commentators here know it and the IAEA who aren't being allowed full access don't.

Seaneh

Seeing as Iran hasn't attacked another nation for the last several centuries, I'm not overly worried about what they have or have not or might have in 10 years time.

Jonny7

Seaneh wrote: »

Seeing as Iran hasn't attacked another nation for the last several centuries, I'm not overly worried about what they have or have not or might have in 10 years time.

Irrelevant what previous administrations did or didn't do. What matters is the current administration and their intentions.

If Iran tries to weaponise, Israel will do everything in it's power to stop that. No amount of hand-wringing and cries of "unfair" or "hypocrisy" is going to stop that. It's just a grim fact.

Also, if Iran did manage to somehow develop and protect it's nuclear arms technology, there would be a regional arms race. Nobody wants this, not even the Russians or Chinese.

Iran could of course be completely transparent, cooperate fully with the IAEA and the NPT, get sanctions dropped.. but no, apparently nationalistic pride is far more important.

wes

Ah Israel, eternally changing the goal posts, when there predictions prove wrong in regards to Iran, yet again, and apparently we are suppose to trust the Israeli government in regards to this?

They have been pulling this crap for decades:
Imminent Iran nuclear threat? A timeline of warnings since 1979.

It is nothing short of amazing that anyone would take accusations from Israel in regards to an Iranian nuclear weapons program seriously, what with there being wrong again and again. Amazing that constant lies from the Israeli government are still believed decade after decade.

Captain Chaos

Seaneh wrote: »

Seeing as Iran hasn't attacked another nation for the last several centuries, I'm not overly worried about what they have or have not or might have in 10 years time.

You are having a laugh. Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

Then there was the Iran, Iraq war in the 80s. Iran even fired on US Navy warships with weapons supplied to them by the US, needless to say the Iranian ships were dealt with.

Iranian fighters have entered Israeli airspace in the 90s with the intention of shooting down an Israeli recon aircraft still over Israel. The two Iranian fighters were shot down by the recon aircraft's escorts.

So they are no innocents either.

Nodin

Captain Chaos wrote: »

.........

Then there was the Iran, Iraq war in the 80s. Iran even fired on US Navy warships with weapons supplied to them by the US, needless to say the Iranian ships were dealt with.

.........

Iran is not an Arab country.

You realise that it was Iraq that invaded Iran? And that the US was deolyed to protect Iraqi vessels...?

Gatling

Moral of the story don't mess with the Israeli Defense Force .

Just ask Iran ,Egypt,Syria, Jordan ,and a certain African dictator

wes

Gatling wrote: »

Moral of the story don't mess with the Israeli Defense Force .

Just ask Iran ,Egypt,Syria, Jordan ,and a certain African dictator

WTF are you even talking about...... Iran has never been in a war with Israel, and even if they did it has no bearing on Israels claims in regard to an Iranian nuclear weapons program, which have been wrong every single time they have made if over the decades.

I have to wonder where people are getting there misinformation from, claiming that Iran was in a war with Israel, and other such fictional occurrences.

wes

Captain Chaos wrote: »

You are having a laugh.

Well you have given me a good laugh, with the stuff you made up.

Captain Chaos wrote: »

Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

Complete fiction that Iran was involved in the 6 day war. Do a google search, and you will find Iran wasn't involved in the 6 day war.

Captain Chaos wrote: »

Then there was the Iran, Iraq war in the 80s. Iran even fired on US Navy warships with weapons supplied to them by the US, needless to say the Iranian ships were dealt with.

Iraq (under Saddam, who the West helped in this nasty little conflict btw) engaged in a war of aggression against Iran, so again you are being less than truthful..

Captain Chaos wrote: »

Iranian fighters have entered Israeli airspace in the 90s with the intention of shooting down an Israeli recon aircraft still over Israel. The two Iranian fighters were shot down by the recon aircraft's escorts.

Well, this is a new one, but considering the amount of fiction you have peddled so far, and the fact that I can't find any such event having happened via Google, this is probably something you have also made up or mis-represented.

Captain Chaos wrote: »

So they are no innocents either.

The Iranian regime is guilty of a lot of things, but there not guilty of anything you have said above.

Seaneh

Captain Chaos wrote: »

You are having a laugh. Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

Then there was the Iran, Iraq war in the 80s. Iran even fired on US Navy warships with weapons supplied to them by the US, needless to say the Iranian ships were dealt with.

Iranian fighters have entered Israeli airspace in the 90s with the intention of shooting down an Israeli recon aircraft still over Israel. The two Iranian fighters were shot down by the recon aircraft's escorts.

So they are no innocents either.

What weird ass revisionist history excuse for a tom clancy book are you pulling this crap from?

cyberhog

Jonny7 wrote: »

Iran could of course be completely transparent, cooperate fully with the IAEA

The former chief of the IAEA told Al Jazeera:

...the Iranians have been more open than most other countries would be."

He also said:

"Any country, I think, would be rather reluctant to let international inspectors to go anywhere in a military site,"

http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/World/Middle-East/2012/0420/Iran-s-Parchin-complex-Why-are-nuclear-inspectors-so-focused-on-it

In other words, Iran is not behaving any differently to how any other country would in the same situation.

Then there is the matter of the IAEA's legal authority to conduct inspections of Parchin.

“Normally the IAEA does not have the legal authority to inspect undeclared non-nuclear-materials related facilities, in a nation—like Iran—that has not ratified the Additional Protocol. The IAEA can call for ‘special inspections’ but they have not done so. They can also choose arbitration, as specified in the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement, but again they have not done that.

http://goingtotehran.com/is-the-iaea-undermining-nuclear-talks-with-iran

Until the IAEA call for "special inspections" or choose arbitration, Iran is well within its rights to refuse the IAEA entry to Parchin.

BlaasForRafa

wes wrote: »

WTF are you even talking about...... Iran has never been in a war with Israel, and even if they did it has no bearing on Israels claims in regard to an Iranian nuclear weapons program, which have been wrong every single time they have made if over the decades.

Iran has been engaged in a war with Israel for decades using its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas which it has financed and armed.

Its a bit simplistic to think that you need to have a formal declaration for a state of war to exist, war can be carried out by means other than your own conventional forces.

Son Of A Vidic

Gatling wrote: »

Moral of the story don't mess with the Israeli Defense Force US military aid.

Just ask Iran ,Egypt,Syria, Jordan ,and a certain African dictator

Just edited the obvious error there, the IDF remain very heavily subsidised with US military aid and support. Which is currently running at $3.1 billion dollars a year.

Seaneh

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Just edited the obvious error there, the IDF remain very heavily subsidised with US military aid and support. Which is currently running at $3.1 billion dollars a year.

You forgot to scratch Iran off of his list.

Hoop66

Captain Chaos wrote: »

You are having a laugh. Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

Then there was the Iran, Iraq war in the 80s. Iran even fired on US Navy warships with weapons supplied to them by the US, needless to say the Iranian ships were dealt with.

Iranian fighters have entered Israeli airspace in the 90s with the intention of shooting down an Israeli recon aircraft still over Israel. The two Iranian fighters were shot down by the recon aircraft's escorts.

So they are no innocents either.

I see your claims here have already been thoroughly refuted, so I won't bother pointing out the obvious errors.

I am interested to where you got your information from though? Is any reputable source actually claiming that Iran was involved in the 6 Day War? Or that the Iran-Iraq war was anything other than an act of aggression from Iraq?

Were you to research this a little further, you would find that until the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Israel and Iran maintained surprisingly close ties, with Iran being the second muslim majority country to recognise the state of Israel. And Israel continued covert support of Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.

The current extremist leadership in Iran makes it's usual inflammatory remarks designed to appease hardliners and raise their standing amongst the fundamentalist minority; but scratch the surface and the vast majority of Iranians, certainly all those that I know (both inside and outside Iran), are completely opposed to this sort of anti-Israeli rhetoric.

wes

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Iran has been engaged in a war with Israel for decades using its proxies in Hezbollah and Hamas which it has financed and armed.

Its a bit simplistic to think that you need to have a formal declaration for a state of war to exist, war can be carried out by means other than your own conventional forces.

What simplistic, is to move the goal posts as it suits. If we are to follow your logic, then the US is at war with Iran (and with any and all of Israel various enemies), as Israel is a US proxy, but I am going to go out on a limb here, and say that no one would suggest something so very silly.

Either way, the fact reamains, Israels claims in regards to an Iranian nuclear program, have been shown to wrong, time and time again over the decades.

BlaasForRafa

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Just edited the obvious error there, the IDF remain very heavily subsidised with US military aid and support. Which is currently running at $3.1 billion dollars a year.

They managed to win several wars with second hand french tanks and planes while their arab neighbours were stuffed to the gills with soviet aid. Even if they had inferior equipment the IDF would have better strategy, tactics and fighting spirit to fall back on.

Bullseye1

If the UK stated that we shouldn't exist and we should be wiped off the face of the planet I would be worried and would hope that my government had some contingency plan. I don't blame Israel for being concerned about Iran and its lunatic leader and his comments about their country.

Jaafa

Bullseye1 wrote: »

If the UK stated that we shouldn't exist and we should be wiped off the face of the planet I would be worried and would hope that my government had some contingency plan. I don't blame Israel for being concerned about Iran and its lunatic leader and his comments about their country.

Except the Iranian government never said that, and even if they did, they don't have the means or the motive to carry it out.
Amazing how years after being debunked this line is still called out as truth. A testament to the efficiency of Israeli propaganda, the Iranians could learn a thing or two from them.

Bullseye1

And there is no propaganda against Israel?

Seaneh

Bullseye1 wrote: »

If the UK stated that we shouldn't exist and we should be wiped off the face of the planet I would be worried and would hope that my government had some contingency plan. I don't blame Israel for being concerned about Iran and its lunatic leader and his comments about their country.

Iran never claimed Israel shouldn't exist and should be wiped off the face of the planet, this if farcical propaganda.

Jaafa

Bullseye1 wrote: »

And there is no propaganda against Israel?

Plenty.

cyberhog

Bullseye1 wrote: »

And there is no propaganda against Israel?

So do you accept the claim Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map is propaganda?

Brian Shanahan

Jonny7 wrote: »

Well apparently Iran is definitely not going to weaponise nor set itself up for quick preparation, I am just wondering how the commentators here know it and the IAEA who aren't being allowed full access don't.

A) When the IAEA had full access to the Iranian nuclear programme, they were explicit in stating that there was no evidence for Iran to be developing nuclear weapons.

The IAEA's hierarchy has been recently changed at the behest of the US government, and has since been caught out releasing some very dodgy "intelligence" on Iran's nuclear weapon programme (if it even exists).

From these two points, we can see that the IAEA's current stance is more to do with the dictates of current US government prejudice than anything to do with establishing facts about Iran's nuclear programme.

Captain Chaos wrote: »

You are having a laugh. Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

You do know that all Israeli leaders, both civilian and military, at the time of the 6-days war have since then admitted that there was no intention on the part of any of the Arab states to act aggressively against Israel, and that all offensive operations were carried out by the Israeli "Defence" Forces.

Jonny7

Brian Shanahan wrote: »

A) When the IAEA had full access to the Iranian nuclear programme, they were explicit in stating that there was no evidence for Iran to be developing nuclear weapons.

True, but carefully chosen. From 2004 the situation deteriorated. The IAEA have referred Iran to the UN security council, which has passed sanctions itself. Those sanctions have been supported by Russia, a close ally of Iran, belaying their concerns on the Iranian nuclear programme.

The Israeli's are muddying the water with their incessant propaganda on the issue, but, if entirely "innocent", Iran are playing a pretty pointless economically crushing game of cat and mouse with the rest of the world

Brian Shanahan

Jonny7 wrote: »

True, but carefully chosen. From 2004 the situation deteriorated.

The situation deteriorated because the US, a state with a vested interest in framing Iran, put its own placeman in as the head of the IAEA which has since relied on the organisations which gave us the "90 minutes" dossier and "Iraq is buying nuclear materials from Niger" fakes for all its intelligence on Iran.

I'm no friend of the regime currently in Iran, but I recognised a bout of aggressive sabre-rattling to placate the armchair generals at home when I see it. And just like Little Willy in 1914 I think this situation will have BIFFO O'Bama walking into a war he can't win.

jmayo

Captain Chaos wrote: »

You are having a laugh. Iran along with four or five other Arab countries in the 1960s tried to wipe Israel off the map. Israel sent them all packing while wiping out the airforces of Iran, Syria and Egypt in the process.

You do know Iran was under the shah at that stage who was the regional leader to actually recognize the state of Israel?????
And you do know that Jordan and Iraq are between Israel and Iran, right ?
Ah forget it just get a map and look up a proper history book.

Captain Chaos wrote: »

Iranian fighters have entered Israeli airspace in the 90s with the intention of shooting down an Israeli recon aircraft still over Israel. The two Iranian fighters were shot down by the recon aircraft's escorts.

I don't what you are on about here ??

The IDF has indeed shot down a drone that may have originated from Iran but these were probably flown out of Lebannon by Hezbollah.

BTW back on topic.
I don't know why so many people see no problem with a state like Iran getting nuclear capability.
It is bad enough that Pakistan and even some of the former Soviet states may have them without adding Iran to that list.

Or are people so blinded by hatred towards Israel and the US that they would like those who would probably like to see their heads chopped off get the power to wage nuclear war.

cyberhog

jmayo wrote: »

Or are people so blinded by hatred towards Israel and the US that they would like those who would probably like to see their heads chopped off get the power to wage nuclear war.

I find it hard to read that and not lol. It seems the more people try to defend Israel's propaganda the less coherent their arguments become.

jmayo

cyberhog wrote: »

I find it hard to read that and not lol. It seems the more people try to defend Israel's propaganda the less coherent their arguments become.

I aint defending Israel's propaganda.
I just don't want a country getting their hands on nuclear weapons when it backs jihadist terrorists, has such a poor record in dealing with others of differeing beliefs, has such a poor record on female rights and homosexual rights, and whose leadership generally espouses a backwards belief system that probably detests people like me (white western secular non believer).

Do you really think Iran aren't trying to obtain/develop a nuclear weapons capability ?

If you think it is plausable that Iran is trying to obtain or develop a nuclear weapons capability, do you then think it is a good thing ?

cyberhog

jmayo wrote: »

I aint defending Israel's propaganda.

So where did you get this fear of Iran developing nuclear weapons if not from Israel's propaganda?

BlaasForRafa

cyberhog wrote: »

So where did you get this fear of Iran developing nuclear weapons if not from Israel's propaganda?

Why does Iran need tens of thousands of centrifuges then?, it can easily obtain (and has) fuel for civilian nuclear reactors from Russia.

Why would it invest huge sums of money in the technology needed for a weapons program if it isn't for a weapons program?

Seaneh

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Why does Iran need tens of thousands of centrifuges then?, it can easily obtain (and has) fuel for civilian nuclear reactors from Russia.

Why would it invest huge sums of money in the technology needed for a weapons program if it isn't for a weapons program?

Enrichment for medical purposes, or several other reasons.

BlaasForRafa

Seaneh wrote: »

Enrichment for medical purposes, or several other reasons.

Sorry but thats just utterly laughable.

Seaneh

Why, becuase your government, who have illegally attained nuclear weapons, supplied to them by their partners in war crimes, the US, says so?

BrianDug

It's nice the way everyone else can have nuclear capabilites but Iran. Let's not forget the US have dropped two nuclear war heads already. I hope Iran do develop something as it will bring stability to the region.

The anti Iran propaganda b.s is comical and it's obvious some posters here spend too much time watching fox news.

cyberhog

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Why does Iran need tens of thousands of centrifuges then?, it can easily obtain (and has) fuel for civilian nuclear reactors from Russia.

Why would it invest huge sums of money in the technology needed for a weapons program if it isn't for a weapons program?

Many other countries have similar nuclear operations and the US does not demand any of them suspend activities. The US and Israel target Iran solely for political reasons.

Everything Iran does is within legal limits. Iran fully complies with NPT provisions and the IAEA has acknowledged repeatedly that no nuclear material has been diverted from the civilian program. Iran opens all of its nuclear facilities to inspection. The US and Israel tolerate no inspections.

Seaneh

Israel don't even officially admit they have nuclear weapons!

juan.kerr

Nuke Iran and they'd never have them. Problem solved.

karma_

juan.kerr wrote: »

Nuke Iran and they'd never have them. Problem solved.

The whole place or just some isolated pockets?

juan.kerr

karma_ wrote: »

The whole place or just some isolated pockets?

Which ever makes the most sense. Maybe we should err on the side of caution however, and say the whole place. What do you think? Better safe than sorry.

BlaasForRafa

cyberhog wrote: »

Many other countries have similar nuclear operations and the US does not demand any of them suspend activities. The US and Israel target Iran solely for political reasons.

Everything Iran does is within legal limits. Iran fully complies with NPT provisions and the IAEA has acknowledged repeatedly that no nuclear material has been diverted from the civilian program. Iran opens all of its nuclear facilities to inspection. The US and Israel tolerate no inspections.

The world (not just the US) demands that Iran and North Korea stop development of nuclear weapons. I wonder why, possibly because they are both tyrannical dictatorships who threaten other countries with destruction.

And if you believe that Iran has shown inspectors everything then you are as deluded as I think you are.

halkar

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

The world (not just the US) demands that Iran and North Korea stop development of nuclear weapons.....

Which world is that?
I don't see many of Iran's neighbours too concerned about their nuclear ambitions. World is not just about US and Israel and their puppet allies.

Jonny7

halkar wrote: »

Which world is that?
I don't see many of Iran's neighbours too concerned about their nuclear ambitions. World is not just about US and Israel and their puppet allies.

It would kick-start a regional nuclear arms race if Iran were to build the bomb.

Iran has openly stated it doesn't want nuclear weapons, has signed the NPT and have oft repeated that nuclear weapons are un-Islamic.

So why then are they ****ing with the IAEA and rest of the world and ruining their economy in the process?

The US/Israel approach could be labelled agenda, but what about Russia, China, and the EU slapping sanctions on Tehran.

Eggy Baby!

And that the US was deployed to protect Iraqi vessels...?

Oh dear....

If only people would read history, then people would realise that the USA changes enemies as often as a person changes position while sleeping.

The world (not just the US) demands that Iran and North Korea stop development of nuclear weapons. I wonder why, possibly because they are both tyrannical dictatorships who threaten other countries with destruction.

So tyrannical dictatorships are the only states which are capable of using the atom bomb for bad?

Hmmm...*gets out history book*

...I wonder who was the first and only nation so far to actually use them in war?


And why should Israel have nukes and not Iran? Israel has attempted to hide its weapons from the world, but their nuclear arsenal is about as obvious as a burglar trying to hide a TV in his shirt. Should a deterrent not be encouraged here?

Jaafa

It would kick-start a regional nuclear arms race if Iran were to build the bomb.

Lets get one thing very straight here, Israel started the nuclear arms race in the region, not Iran. Iran isn't the first country in the region to start a nuclear program and it won't be the last.

So why then are they ****ing with the IAEA and rest of the world and ruining their economy in the process?

What is being demanded of them by the IAEA is above and beyond what the NPT calls for and beyond what any other member of the NPT has had to be put through. Iran is not obligated by the NPT to allow inspections of military sites such as Parchain, despite this it has allowed the IAEA to inspect it in the past, it is perfectly within its rights and the rules of the NPT to refuse now. Especially after the large number of assassinations and 'mysterious' explosions at military sites. It is completely reasonable for Iran to assume some of the IAEA inspectors may pass on confidential information to third parties.

BlaasForRafa

Jaafa wrote: »

Lets get one thing very straight here, Israel started the nuclear arms race in the region, not Iran. Iran isn't the first country in the region to start a nuclear program and it won't be the last..

Israel has had nuclear weapons for 45 years. It was a pretty bloody slow race until Iran started its weapons program.

RandomName2

Seaneh wrote: »

Seeing as Iran hasn't attacked another nation for the last several centuries, I'm not overly worried about what they have or have not or might have in 10 years time.

Sorry, read that as decades to begin with.

You're talking about Persia... right? I'm afraid Persia has been gone for a while. Iran made a good fist of conquering Iraq (Iraq started it!) and wiped out so much of its population in that war that there was no conceivable way that it could go on a war footing for a long time. In the meantime they have engaged in international terrorism, to help pass the time, you know.

So Iranian nuclear ICBMs in a few years; one of the most anti-Western, fundamentalist and powerful nations in the middle east.

Yaay :pac:

RandomName2

Jaafa wrote: »

Lets get one thing very straight here, Israel started the nuclear arms race in the region, not Iran. Iran isn't the first country in the region to start a nuclear program and it won't be the last.

Surely the USA started the race when they installed nuclear ballistic missiles in Turkey over half a century ago.

No?

Sorry your post just comes across as 'Well Israel is crap... sorry, what was it you were saying?". Israel, if it has nukes, hasn't used them - despite any numbers of opportunities. It has been invaded - almost destroyed - on a couple of occasions; yet no nukes were dropped; indeed not even a warning from Israel against its enemies that they may resort to WMDs.

Iran has made it clear that it is opposed to the existence of Israel. Whilst a couple of people on this forum might rejoice at seeing Israel wiped off the map - I see the possibility as worrying.