Two new polls show collapse in Labour support

Death and Taxes

Two new opinion polls show support for Labour has dropped to a lowly 11% well adrift of all other parties.
Fianna Fail appear to be holding up well 21% (mores the pity)

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/new-polls-show-slump-in-support-for-labour-582648.html

Red C poll for The Sunday Business Post

Fine Gael: 28% (no change)
Labour: 11% (-3%)
Fianna Fáil: 21% (+1%)
Sinn Féin: 19% (+2%)
Independents/others: 21% (no change)

Behaviour and Attitudes poll for the Sunday Times

Fine Gael: 26% (-4%)
Labour: 11% (-1%)
Fianna Fáil: 24% (+2%)
Sinn Féin: 19% (+5%)
Independents/others: 21% (-1%)

I would be happy to see Gilmore get his comeuppance, but worried about any rise in support for SF.
Looks like the Bye election in Meath is going to be very interesting indeed.

rightwingdub

I really despair at this country when FF are at 24% in one poll.

Manach

or that the Party of the higher grades of the Civil Service and higher taxes/charges, are at still 11%.

Sierra Oscar

So, will Labour hold on and see the government through or will they go before the local elections?

Either way they are in serious trouble, and we are only two years into the life of this government. If they went into the 2014 local elections on 10% they could lose a third of their council seats. If a GE was held tomorrow they would lose half of their Dáil seats.

Dob74

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

So, will Labour hold on and see the government through or will they go before the local elections?

Either way they are in serious trouble, and we are only two years into the life of this government. If they went into the 2014 local elections on 10% they could lose a third of their council seats. If a GE was held tomorrow they would lose half of their Dáil seats.

Labour should walk out now and fight the election on the right to choose. At least they could hold on to their urban vote.
Gilmore couldn't even get the finance ministry for labour. Not sure why he hates Joan Burton so much surely she should have Howlins ministry. Only person in the cabinet with a financial background.
Both polls have Ff/Fg about 50%. Time for a conservative coalition and a left right divide in irish politics.

Labour are getting nothing out of being in coalition. Its pointless being a rubber stamp for fg. Time to pull the plug and have a united party rather than have the party pulled apart by in fighting.

Twoandahalfmen

Fina fail had there chance and blew it
Fine Gael and labour arnt doing much better

Next time there's an election I can vote and will be voting dinner fein

Sierra Oscar

Twoandahalfmen wrote: »

Fina fail had there chance and blew it
Fine Gael and labour arnt doing much better

Next time there's an election I can vote and will be voting dinner fein

Fair play, although I suspect that the last thing SF want right now is to be in government. It certainly would be a dream come true for some of their opponents, as it would undoubtedly highlight as to how the party is merely an "oppose everything" party which is not positioned to be in government.

The FG/Lab broken promises would be minuscule compared to SF and their fantasy manifestos.

flutered

hitting the poor and the disabled, one has to pay the price.

AlekSmart

flutered wrote: »

hitting the poor and the disabled, one has to pay the price.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0802/1224321294231.html

“The number at the end of 2011 was 102,866 and at the end of June 2012 has risen to 103,212.

“The department is overall spending more on illness/disability schemes over the last decade, both in terms of the numbers of people receiving the allowance and the amount of money spent.

“The department’s spending on total short-term and long-term illness and disability payments has increased from €1.1 billion in 2001 to €2.1 billion in 2006 [and] to €2.7 billion in 2011, while the numbers receiving these payments have increased from 173,000 (2001) to 216,000 (2006) to 242,000 (2011).”

In a country with such a high,and constantly increasing,proportion of poor or disabled or poor and disabled,it would surely be almost impossible not to hit such groupings ?

flutered

AlekSmart wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2012/0802/1224321294231.html




In a country with such a high,and constantly increasing,proportion of poor or disabled or poor and disabled,it would surely be almost impossible not to hit such groupings ?

they are hit budget in budget out, i would hazzard to say most of them worked in construction, provender mills, powder mills, etc, etc, backbreaking work, no health and safety handling up to two and three hundred tonnes of bagged materials per shift, handling 100kg and 50ks bags all day every day, workers who worked in other fields are not hit as hard,

jank

Why would labour walk? They know they are in trouble and will be in there for the long haul. FF &FG should do everyone a favour and go into power together.

jank

jank wrote: »

Why would labour walk? They know they are in trouble and will be in there for the long haul. FF &FG should do everyone a favour and go into power together.

FF in power no matter with whom would do NOBODY a favour!!!!

bmaxi

Labour won't walk. When you get someone like Pat Rabbitte openly admitting that election promises are lies, it shows just how much integrity and principle is imbued in the Labour leadership. Gilmore won't go voluntarily but a concerted heave against him, possibly over the Keaveney episode, could see Joan Burton take the reins. Most of the Labour TDs in this Dail are suckers up, Gilmore's biggest fear is of the ordinary Labour Party member, most of whom are dismayed by the path the party has taken since the "Stickie" takeover.

juan.kerr

Dob74 wrote: »

Gilmore couldn't even get the finance ministry for labour.

:rolleyes:

I hadn't realised they were the senior partner...why would FG go into a coalition with twice the seats of Labour and give up the Finance Ministry?

juan.kerr

Deleted User wrote: »

FF in power no matter with whom would do NOBODY a favour!!!!

Not sure it would be 'NOBODY'. The builders and the bankers did pretty well out of them, not to mention Benchmarking.

carpejugulum

The % obtained by socialists and populist is scary albeit not surprising.

Sierra Oscar

jank wrote: »

Why would labour walk?

Because it is clear that they are disproportionately taking the negative backlash for decisions undertaken by the government, and that a fifth of their TD's are now not even in the Labour parliamentary party?

The leadership want to stay in for the long haul (many of whom wont be running again in anycase). Many of the younger TD's fear that things will only get worse as time moves on.

nuac

Looks like Keaveney and Shorthall are the future of Labour.

Some ordinary Labour members want the annual conference brought forward.

Meanwhile Gilmore is off telling the South Americans how to do things.

Reminds me of Frank Cluskey's comments on Michael D Higgins taking the easy option between saving the world and saving Labour

hatrickpatrick

carpejugulum wrote: »

The % obtained by socialists and populist is scary albeit not surprising.

Why is it scary? They seem to be the only ones with any commitment to getting justice for the Irish people. Every other party is happy to et the elites walk away with the cash and leave us with the mess.

Mr.Micro

nuac wrote: »

Looks like Keaveney and Shorthall are the future of Labour.

Indecision and self serving then?

hatrickpatrick

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Indecision and self serving then?

Loyalty to the Irish people instead of to their party whip? Sounds good to me.

Mr.Micro

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Loyalty to the Irish people instead of to their party whip? Sounds good to me.

Not sure that was the reason in this case. All the decisions will not be popular in Government but shying away from being unpopular and upsetting the voters ...... step up Keaveney. Not sure if he ever proposed an alternative to what he opposed, or just opposed?

GRMA

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Loyalty to the Irish people instead of to their party whip? Sounds good to me.

Dont fall for the likes of Keaveney.

Looking solid enough for the shinners, they'd be aiming for main opposition next time around or thereabouts or main govt party, wouldn't go in as a junior party imo.

Iwasfrozen

rightwingdub wrote: »

I really despair at this country when FF are at 24% in one poll.

Better them then Sinn Fein.

GRMA

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Better them then Sinn Fein.

We've a comedian here folks!

hyperborean

Its odd that the party who has most to answer for the decisions of this government is being ignored by the electorate,

Looks like we are in for a swing to the right, sooner rather than later.

Then the anti Labour faction will get what they deserve,

hyperborean

GRMA wrote: »

We've a comedian here folks!

I guarantee more people in this country would rather have FF than SF. If its a choice between a party which caused economic chaos and a party with direct links to murdering terrorists well?

The economy can be fixed but only the christian s claim to be able to bring back the dead!

In reality neither should ever get near power,

Iwasfrozen

GRMA wrote: »

We've a comedian here folks!

Don't get me wrong, I don't want either in power I'm happy with Fine Gael but if it was a choice between the two...

thebman

Not surprising, betray all your main electoral promises and watch your support base collapse.

Labour should never have gone into government given the policies they knew they'd have to implement.

It seems to have been more a move to get better retirement benefits for the senior members of the party who will nearly all retire after this single term in government in my cynical opinion leaving the younger members of the party trying to save the party for little or no gain.

Then the cycle will continue again much like FF where the young members spend years for little return, rebuilding the parties before getting power and deciding now they deserve everything just like the old senior members. Cue the circle of life:

For something to change, there needs to be political reform and there is no will to do this as all the elected have become experts at playing the existing system so doesn't look like there will be any change in Irish politics for a long time.

Just a circling mess that nobody is happy with but nobody with the power is willing to change.

carpejugulum

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Why is it scary? They seem to be the only ones with any commitment to getting justice for the Irish people. Every other party is happy to et the elites walk away with the cash and leave us with the mess.

Define justice and tell us how they achieved it.
Also define "the Irish people."

goose2005

flutered wrote: »

they are hit budget in budget out

Are they? FF constantly increased payments of all kinds, buying votes with tax income that was never sustainable, and any reduction from those payment levels is an "attack", despite them being much higher than in the days when Ireland was a functioning economy.

goose2005

bmaxi wrote: »

Labour won't walk. When you get someone like Pat Rabbitte openly admitting that election promises are lies, it shows just how much integrity and principle is imbued in the Labour leadership. Gilmore won't go voluntarily but a concerted heave against him, possibly over the Keaveney episode, could see Joan Burton take the reins. Most of the Labour TDs in this Dail are suckers up, Gilmore's biggest fear is of the ordinary Labour Party member, most of whom are dismayed by the path the party has taken since the "Stickie" takeover.

Exactly. Coalition with FG was idiotic, it was just a bunch of dinosaurs grabbing their last chance at a ministry.

jimmycrackcorm

GRMA wrote: »

We've a comedian here folks!

Given Sinn Feins bravado populist policies, I would be horrified to have them in government. But, on the other hand, as seen in how their northern happily implement cuts with the excuse that London is in control ( instead of Berlin ), it's safe to assume they too would follow similar policies to the last two governments.

Dob74

juan.kerr wrote: »

:rolleyes:

I hadn't realised they were the senior partner...why would FG go into a coalition with twice the seats of Labour and give up the Finance Ministry?

Labour had the finance ministry when they only had 31 seats 94 to 97. Ff where willing to give lab finance in 92. But dick spring wanted foreign affairs because of the he peace process. I think Gilmore wanted foreign affairs because it is a nice number going around the world meeting other foreign ministers and feeling important.
Gilmore is a light weight and is clearly not a good negotiator. Since he is the front man in eu debt negotiations its clear this government is not capable of getting a good deal for the taxpayer. Hopefully labour dissidents will be able to remove him. It would be the best thing for the labour party and the country. Rabitte, Quinn and Howlin look tired. Time to make way for the next generation.

Sierra Oscar

Here is the detailed polling information:

Sunday Times /Behaviour & Attitudes - January 2013 - Opinion Poll

Red C General Election Opinion Poll - January 2013

B&A: Interesting to note that the satisfaction with the government has been on a steady decline since FG & Labour came to power, with just 22% now saying that they are satisfied with the government.

Also interesting to note that Micheál Martin is the most popular leader, and I suspect that is something which is standing to FF's benefit regarding the parties rise in the opinion polls. Gilmore has the lowest satisfaction rating of all party leaders, which is more bad news for Gilmore.

The most important information however relates to the core party support levels.



As you can see Fianna Fáil is the strongest party when it comes to their core vote. FF is also the most popular party when the undecided are excluded. FG's core support is surprisingly low, indicating that much of the support they received in the last election is essentially soft in nature. The Sinn Féin core support is also quite weak compared, with core support having fallen in recent months. Again the SF vote is soft - they wont come anywhere close to polling at 19% on election day.

The Labour core support is disastrous, however it seems to have stabilized for now. Nonetheless, Labour are in serious trouble.

RedC:

53% of people polled believe that the country is on the wrong track, and 56% belive the government is on the wrong track.

RedC basically highlight that this is a good poll for FF & SF, with FG holding in there for now. However again it is highlighted that Labour is in trouble.

RedC also believe that Fianna Fáil is the greatest threat to the government, with the party gaining consistent gains whereas the SF vote seems to fluctuate widely. In particular RedC highlight that FF is taking the Labour vote.

Importantly, RedC seem to believe that there is a "shy tory factor" in play with FF.

The evidence that some voters are “shy” to tell pollsters how they might vote, was first measured by Professor Noelle Neumann in Germany, it is called the Spiral of Silence. The theory is that a party begins to be seen as somewhat negative, and as a result voters are less inclined to admit that they will vote for them in the future to a pollster, despite the fact that they may decide to do so come an election. It was clearly in action in the run up to the 2007 General Election in Ireland, when many people claimed they wouldn’t vote for Fianna Fail, but the party still won the election.

It is likely that this effect may still be under representing the current Fianna Fail vote. While it is clear that people are more inclined to admit they will vote for the party now, there are still some who may be thinking of voting for them, but would not like to admit it yet. It is certainly the case that almost half of all those who are currently undecided in today’s poll, voted for Fianna Fail in 2007. Suggesting there is more potential for growth in Fianna Fail support in the months ahead.

Should be interesting to follow the polling from here on in. Basically, FF & SF are happy with these latest polls. FG will be worried somewhat by the B&A figures, especially regarding core support, and Labour HQ must be in meltdown.

Icepick

This bankrupt country is still a socialist paradise thanks to Labour and this is what they get. Expectations of some people are unreal. Especially when they should be the ones most thankful.

washman3

Hopefully the Labour party will be consigned to the dustbin of history come the next election, joining the Greens and the PDs.
Looks to be a foregone conclusion at this stage anyway...:p

rightwingdub

Iwasfrozen wrote: »

Better them then Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein are far more preferable than Fianna Fail.

jank

I would prefer a proper left right divide. All we ever get is populist FF who just tell people what they want while destroying the country in the process or a weird mix of FG and Labour where its very difficult to get anything done, especially any reforms. Dare I say it a FF "controlled" by a more fiscally conservative FG would be better than what we have now. FF should put up or shut up.

Death and Taxes

Problem is FF are are populist now as ever they were, they are resorting to the Haughey era idea of "The purpose of opposition is to oppose". SF are just like FF junior in that regard.
What we need is constructive opposition that puts forward viable alternatives to government policy. If a party cannot be constructive in opposition then it is unlikely to be radical or pragmatic in government.

Sierra Oscar

WileyCoyote wrote: »

What we need is constructive opposition that puts forward viable alternatives to government policy. If a party cannot be constructive in opposition then it is unlikely to be radical or pragmatic in government.

FF have been pretty constructive, they have worked with the government in certain areas to date. They also have put forward alternative proposals, which all have been costed. The party could do much more to oppose for the sake of opposing if it wanted to.

gaffer91

WileyCoyote wrote: »

Problem is FF are are populist now as ever they were, they are resorting to the Haughey era idea of "The purpose of opposition is to oppose". SF are just like FF junior in that regard.
What we need is constructive opposition that puts forward viable alternatives to government policy. If a party cannot be constructive in opposition then it is unlikely to be radical or pragmatic in government.

Are FF really that populist though? From what I can recall, their most recent budget submission was actually well enough thought out, and actually seem to be willing to debate topics rationally, if not always correctly. By the standards of Irish politics, i.e FF in the past, FG 2002-2007, Labour in the previous government, SF/ULA now etc, FF are actually acting relatively maturely and constructively.

Having said that I still don't think they deserved the increased support, and I think FG are the most capable party ATM.

On a side note, SF are unquestionably worse than FF and their rise in support is worrying.

Dob74

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF have been pretty constructive, they have worked with the government in certain areas to date. They also have put forward alternative proposals, which all have been costed. The party could do much more to oppose for the sake of opposing if it wanted to.

FF want the government to rengociate the imf deal something they signed 3 years ago. They want NAMA to be more transparent something they set up, so it wouldn't be transparent. They signed up to cut Garda numbers to 12000 now they are against it.
The list goes on and on, the same ole bull by the same ole bluffers

jank

Dob74 wrote: »

FF want the government to rengociate the imf deal something they signed 3 years ago. They want NAMA to be more transparent something they set up, so it wouldn't be transparent. They signed up to cut Garda numbers to 12000 now they are against it.
The list goes on and on, the same ole bull by the same ole bluffers

Nevermind their opposition to property tax which they agreed to only two years ago. FF, talking through both sides of their mouths for generations.

hatrickpatrick

carpejugulum wrote: »

Define justice and tell us how they achieved it.
Also define "the Irish people."

How about the disembodied heads of each golden circle member and those who facilitated them to be mounted on various plaques along O'Connell bridge to give passers by something to spit in? :pac:

Seriously though, by justice for the Irish people I mean that those who made the mess should pay first, and pay more. Simple as. If you must hit the poor and the disabled then so be it, but not until every single cent has been prised from the hands of the banking elite and the politicians who knowingly colluded in helping them hide their loans and share purchases.

How much is Bertie's pension again? How much is he still getting from the state in expenses? If disabled people are even having one cent removed from their allowances, politicians who formed part of the last government and didn't try to stop the Anglo bailout or the corruption which preceded it should be getting NOTHING. If the Irish taxpayer is on the hook to bail out toxic financial institutions, every cent of excess profit they make should be going to pay back a bailout LOAN from the exchequer, not to pay their former executives exorbitant pensions and their current executives six and seven figure salaries and bonuses.

To claim that these are not injustices is something I simply don't see any logical underpinning to. Those who made the mess should pay more dearly for it than those caught in the crossfire, I would have thought that would be a fairly logical definition of justice? If money has to be taken out of my pocket to pay for this, I don't see why Bertie & co should be getting a single cent more than minimum wage, if even that.

Many of them have already been more or less found guilty by expensive and long drawn out tribunals which in the end had no power to impose any actual sanctions on those it called out for their behavior. They should never get another cent from the public purse in my view. Ever.

bmaxi

Dob74 wrote: »

FF want the government to rengociate the imf deal something they signed 3 years ago. They want NAMA to be more transparent something they set up, so it wouldn't be transparent. They signed up to cut Garda numbers to 12000 now they are against it.
The list goes on and on, the same ole bull by the same ole bluffers

No doubt this and similar will be cited by the current Coalition ad nauseum, in the run up to the next GE to convince the electorate of their innocence in the whole debacle. Unfortunately the electorate, it appears, are irreparably gullible.
I've always been of the opinion that the best way to slay a dragon is to cut it's head off, when the next GE comes around, take out the Kennys, Gilmores, Brutons, Martins, O'Deas, Rabbittes etc. (assuming they have the guts to stick around). These people grow too comfortable and blasé when they are returned time after time, they have no fear of the electorate. No politician in Dáil Eireann should be assured of being returned at any election.

Xantia

Two years after being elected they can claim their lifetime pensions so I would expect some change then.

dvpower

Xantia wrote: »

Two years after being elected they can claim their lifetime pensions so I would expect some change then.

Are you mixing this up with Ministerial pensions?

The Waltzing Consumer

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

How about the disembodied heads of each golden circle member and those who facilitated them to be mounted on various plaques along O'Connell bridge to give passers by something to spit in? :pac:

Seriously though, by justice for the Irish people I mean that those who made the mess should pay first, and pay more. Simple as. If you must hit the poor and the disabled then so be it, but not until every single cent has been prised from the hands of the banking elite and the politicians who knowingly colluded in helping them hide their loans and share purchases.

How much is Bertie's pension again? How much is he still getting from the state in expenses? If disabled people are even having one cent removed from their allowances, politicians who formed part of the last government and didn't try to stop the Anglo bailout or the corruption which preceded it should be getting NOTHING. If the Irish taxpayer is on the hook to bail out toxic financial institutions, every cent of excess profit they make should be going to pay back a bailout LOAN from the exchequer, not to pay their former executives exorbitant pensions and their current executives six and seven figure salaries and bonuses.

To claim that these are not injustices is something I simply don't see any logical underpinning to. Those who made the mess should pay more dearly for it than those caught in the crossfire, I would have thought that would be a fairly logical definition of justice? If money has to be taken out of my pocket to pay for this, I don't see why Bertie & co should be getting a single cent more than minimum wage, if even that.

Many of them have already been more or less found guilty by expensive and long drawn out tribunals which in the end had no power to impose any actual sanctions on those it called out for their behavior. They should never get another cent from the public purse in my view. Ever.

Hatrickpatrick, I don't think anyone here, be they FG, Lab, SF, NULA (Not United Left Alliance) or Independent are going to argue with the idea that people like Bertie & co get so much state money is a good thing.

But if you are trying to argue the socialists would be better and would get "justice" for Irish people, well that's debatable. Firstly, I think they would get "justice" on those they do not like, not those they do like, so look at their vitriol against the FF developers, but then compare that to their love of Mick Wallace.

When it comes to other comparable payments such as expenses:
http://www.oireachtas.ie/ViewDoc.asp?DocId=-1&CatID=169&m=m
Gives the latest figures from Nov & Dec 2012, and again, it shows the socialists right up there at the top of the crowd. Given that so many of the left are based in Dublin and yet still claim so much, it does not give much hope that their actions speak louder then their words.

So taking one consistency, Dublin West.

We have four TDs
1) Joe Higgins (SP) Nov 2,250 Dec 2,250
2) Joan Burton (LAB) Nov 1,000 Dec 1,000
3) Leo Varadkar (FG) Nov 1,666 Dec 1,666
4) Patrick Nulty (LAB/"Rebel") Nov 3,141 Dec 3,141

Xantia

dvpower wrote: »

Are you mixing this up with Ministerial pensions?

Yes you are quite correct - I stand corrected.

In a more sarcastic tone - My Dáil Milking Manual is out of date.......

LordSutch

rightwingdub wrote: »

Sinn Fein are far more preferable than Fianna Fail.

Hmm, I presume that would be the all new shiny Sinn Fein (without any connections to their alter ego)? because nothing disgusts me more that a SF coulcillor who justfies the actions of the PIRA and what they did in the name of Ireland & the Irish people. On the other hand, many of the new breed of S'effers try to distance themselves from the armed campaign, Mary Lou being a prime example. Wouldn't vote for FF either.