Monday 14th January

rossom

2.50 Wolverhampton

Admirable Duque 20/1

Although current odds on shot Cool Sky will prove difficult to beat in his search for a 4 timer with the talented apprentice Robert Tart's 7lb claim allowing him to race off a 1lb lower mark than his latest victory, I think Admirable Duque is a fascinating contender for Dominic Ffrench Davis who is 9lb below winning at Southwell impressively in March and only 1lb above the mark he bolted in by 7L at the course under today's rider Josh Boudains in December 2011. Moreover, the blinkers and eye-shields are he has worn on his last 3 victories reapplied after being absent in his two recent starts after a 3 month absence as he drops back into a Class 5 on the all weather for the first time since his demolition at Wolves 13 months ago which I think is far more valuable form to look at in comparison to the mark he won off at Southwell given that its hard to compare form from that course's unique surface. Racing today off a mark of 73, Admirable Duque was in fact rated 89 after his comfortable success at Southwell in March as his mark has fallen rapidly in just 3 subsequent starts on the all weather (he did race 5 times on turf but he's a considerably better horse on the all weather so I am discounting those efforts). Focusing on his more recent efforts, I thought he ran a really encouraging race on his 2nd last start off a 4lb higher mark on his first start for 3 months without his usual headgear at Lingfield last month. Held up in his traditional fashion, Admirable Duque travelled wide throughout the 12f contest and he was bumped twice with about 2 1/2 furlongs to go which would have done him no favours. In addition, he was carried extremely wide into the turn and was hampered by the eventual winner Focail Maith with about 1f to go as he regathered momentum and ran on really well to the line as he made up a pretty decent amount of ground to go down by only 2.75L. That race is pretty decent form with the winner holding his form really well off a 6lb higher mark whilst the 2nd Noble Silk has won off a 4lb higher mark in the interim period.

His last race off a 3lb higher mark of 76 was a little less encouraging but he was hampered and forced extremely wide with about 5f to go in a race that did not suit anything coming from off the pace. He didn't exactly look like a winner in waiting but he should strip fitter for his two recent runs, and I am confident of a really bold show given that he gets a further ease in the weights, the reapplication of his favoured headgear and a drop to this grade for the first time since winning impressively a little over a year ago. Regular pilot Josh Boudains, who claims a very valuable 7lb, clearly gets on very well with this 7 year old having partnered him to his last 3 successes and this represents his only engagement of the day. Dominic Ffrench Davis has his horses in very good order at present with a win and two places from his last 5 runners and this too is his only runner of the day. An 89 rated horse on the AW 4 starts back and only 10 months ago, I feel Admirable Duque has dropped to a very attractive mark of 73 and I'd be pretty disappointed if he wasn't able to be very competitive off his current rating. With English Summer and Torero hopefully ensuring they go a good pace, I think the race will be run to suit Admirable Duque and am confident of a big run at the very least. Its a real pain in the ass that there are only 7 runners and 2 places paid but I definitely feel 20/1 is a very good price. If everything goes to plan, I'm quietly confident of a really big showing from this 7 year old and although current favourite Cool Sky will be tough to beat it certainly doesn't look an impossible task and hopefully Admirable Duque can land the prize at a lovely price. I'm also having a small RFC with Jezza who I also think could run well

the groutch

fancy Asker in this first race at Plumpton, some decent flat form for Marcus Tregoning and you can ignore his jumps debut imo as he was really thrown in the deep end against River Maigue at Xmas