The Great Big Heineken Cup Round 6 Permutations Thread

tolosenc

Ok, so here are the pools heading into the final week:

Pool 1 | Points | Tries | +/-
Saracens | 18 | 10 | 71
Munster | 15 | 9 | 37
Racing Metro | 12 | 7 | 1
Edinburgh | 0 | 2 | -109


Pool 2 | Points | Tries | +/-
Toulouse | 18 | 14 | 52
Leicester | 16 | 13 | 12
Ospreys | 11 | 10 | -1
Treviso | 1 | 7 | -63


Pool 3 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Harlequins | 24 | 27 | 165
Biarritz | 14 | 14 | 29
Connacht | 8 | 4 | -47
Zebre | 0 | 5 | -147


Pool 4 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Ulster | 19 | 12 | 70
Northampton | 14 | 6 | -8
Castres | 13 | 5 | -20
Glasgow | 2 | 4 | -42


Pool 5 | Points | Tries | +/-
(Q) Clermont | 23 | 19 | 120
Leinster | 15 | 8 | 19
Exeter | 9 | 4 | -64
Scarlets | 6 | 2 |-75


Pool 6 | Points | Tries | +/-
(q)Toulon | 23 | 23 | 122
Montpellier | 18 | 5 | 39
Sale | 4 | 5 | -108
Cardiff | 2 | 10 | -53


Pool 1:
Saracens are favourites to top this pool, needing only to beat lowly Edinburgh at home. Edinburgh themselves are already eliminated from all European competition this season, and will have nothing to play for but pride. Racing Metro will travel to Thomond Park next Sunday for what is set to be one of the bigger clashes of the final round. Racing cannot top the pool, but are well in the hunt for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. Victory of any kind will be enough to secure European rugby for after the Six Nations break. Their hosts Munster, are still in the hunt for a Heineken Cup quarter final berth. To progress as group winners they need to win, and hope Edinburgh upset Saracens. The head to head between the top two is even, as such Munster will need the TBP in their victory and to hope for an upset in order to top the pool. However, their best bet looks to be as a best runner up.

Pool 2:
Ospreys and Treviso are both eliminated, leaving a straight shootout between Leicester and Toulouse at Welford Road next Sunday. With 20 points looking to be the benchmark for a best runner up spot, only one of these two great European teams will emerge from this pool. Leicester will need to win if they wish to progress, but only a bonus point win will make it absolutely sure. Toulouse could, theoretically lose but still pick up the 2 bonus points that would see them top the pool.

Pool 3:
Harlequins have already sealed their place in the last 8 this year, and will be going to Biarritz in confident mood, looking to secure a home quarter final, which looks more than likely as it is. The Basque club itself is in dire straits. Needing to win to remain in Europe, they will require nothing short of a miraculous string of results on the final weekend to keep them in the hunt for a Heineken Cup final. Connacht play Zebre in a dead rubber that the Westerners will be looking to use to boost moral after a decent season for them in Europe.

Pool 4:
Ulster have clinched top spot due to their head to head with Northampton, and will be looking for an all too uncommon win on French soil in order to book a quarter final at Ravenhill. Castres, for their part, are still in the hunt. Although they are not mathematically eliminated from the Heineken Cup, they can only really hope for a spot in the Amlin Challenge Cup. They will need to beat Ulster, and hope Northampton and at least one of the other runners up lose to remain in Europe. Northampton take on the already out Glasgow, knowing that progression in the tournament is, like Castres, out of their hands. A bonus point win should keep them in Europe, however.

Pool 5:
Clermont will travel to Llanelli looking to secure a home quarter final, which might as well be a semi final spot given their more than impressive home record. A win of any kind would be good enough, but may not even be necessary. Clermont are deserving favourites for this year's championship, but no team to win all their pool matches has ever won it all come May. Double defending champions Leinster face a daunting trip to Sandy Park, needing to do what only Clermont have done this season: win with a bonus point. Finally looking like they are in gear, the Irish giants are not down and out just yet. A bonus point win is a must, anything less and it's firmly out of their hands.

Pool 6:
Sale and Cardiff will play for pride alone after disappointing European campaigns for each. Toulon, at worst, will qualify as a best runner up. Standing between them and total pool domination is Montpellier. The trip along the Mediterranean coast is a short one, but the match itself is enormously important in determining qualification for the quarters. The threat from the two big Irish clubs is such that Montpellier will be looking to win to ensure progress. However, Toulon are not yet mathematically assured of a home quarter final, and would be fools to risk having to travel. A bonus point point would be enough to secure a home game. It is set to be a mouthwatering clash.

The best runners up:
On the face of it, it's two from Montpellier, Munster and Leinster who will take the spots. The two Irish provinces will need bonus point wins to feel in any way comfortable, but the only way both will qualify is by praying that Toulon get it done. That result will be known before wither of them springs into action. Munster are the better positioned of the two Irish provinces, both in terms of points and tries, as well as playing second. They will know that they need to score as many tries as Leinster did the day before. Northampton will need two of the above three teams to lose, and for them to get a 5 pointer in order to have a shot. Everyone else requires even more favourable results. Munster's lack of form of late means the Thomond faithful will be praying that Racing Metro have given up.

Home quarter finals:
A smart man would put the house on Clermont and Harlequins being home quarter finalists. Toulon are near as damnit, but they will need to perform against Montpellier to make absolutely sure (and here's hoping they do). It;s very unlikely that pool 2 will produce a home quarter finalist, and as such it's a shootout between Saracens and Ulster for the last spot.

Combinations from an Irish perspective:
For Munster to win Pool 1:
Saracens lose (No BPs) & Munster win (BP or not)
Saracens lose (1 BP) & Munster win (BP, or by 34 minus Edinburgh's margin of victory + score at least one more try than Saracens)

For Ulster to get a home QF:
Ulster win (BP)
Ulster win (No BP) and ((Saracens win (No BP) or Saracens win and score no more than two more tries than Ulster) or (Toulouse don't finish on 23 points))

For Munster to get a home QF:
Munster win (BP) and Munster win Pool 1 and Ulster lose (No BPs) and Leicester win (No BP) and Leicester win Pool 2.

For both Leinster and Munster to qualify as best runners up:
Leinster win (BP)
Munster win (BP)
Montpellier lose (at most 1 BP)
*Note: Biarritz & Toulouse have try counts such that Munster and Leinster will need to get to 20 points to avoid potentially losing out to them.

For Leinster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Leinster win (BP) and Munster win (No BP) or Munster win (BP, scoring 2 or more tries fewer than Leinster) or Munster win(BP, scoring one try fewer than Leinster, and having a winning margin 19 less than Leinster's) or Munster loss/draw.

For Munster (only) to qualify as a best runner up:
Munster win (BP) and Leinster loss/draw/win(No BP) or Leinster win (BP, scoring no more tries than Munster) or Leinster win (BP scoring one more try than Munster, but winning by less than 18 more than Munster win).

Phew.

---

TL;DR:

COME ON TOULON!