2013 Schedules

Paully D

I'll break this down into two posts (AFC and NFC):

AFC:

Paully D

NFC:

Son Of A Vidic

Fair play to ya Paully, that saves us a lot of bother.

Pudsy33

Ravens matched up with a bitch of a division from the NFC, but a handy enough AFC division considering we'd play New England anyways.

Justin10

Manning back to Indy, happy enough when I see the away games between Denver and San Diego

davyjose

It's gonna be weird seeing Peyton back in Lucas Oil.

Son Of A Vidic

Kinda like when you leave home and still have the key of the house in your pocket years later. Indy will always be a home from home for Peyton.

Paully D

Pudsy33 wrote: »

Ravens matched up with a bitch of a division from the NFC, but a handy enough AFC division considering we'd play New England anyways.

Personally think we'll go around 10-6.

All the tougher teams (Packers, Texans, Patriots) apart from the Broncos at home. I'd only put the Broncos on the road down as a 100% guaranteed loss.

Hopefully we can win 2 of those 3 tough homes games but I wouldn't be surprised if it was only 1. We'll probably split the Bears/Lions road games and the Steelers/Bengals divisional games. There's always 1 easy enough road game that we lose every season too.

10-6 should be good enough to take the division anyway.

eagle eye

Patriots will go 14-2/13-3 on that schedule I think. We'll lose to one or two good teams on the road and we'll have one loss at home maybe.

Justin10

eagle eye wrote: »

Patriots will go 14-2/13-3 on that schedule I think. We'll lose to one or two good teams on the road and we'll have one loss at home maybe.

OOOO to be a Patriot fan :rolleyes:

davyjose

eagle eye wrote: »

Patriots will go 14-2/13-3 on that schedule I think. We'll lose to one or two good teams on the road and we'll have one loss at home maybe.

That's a savage schedule for you guys.

jack presley

As a Redskins fan used to playing the 4th team in the 2 NFC divisions the NFC east aren't matched up against, having to play the 49ers and Falcons instead next season feels a bit weird. The one bad thing about winning the division eh?

But as for looking at the schedules and making predictions, it is way too early to be doing that, especially since the draft and free agency haven't happened so we have no idea how rosters are going to look next season. I'm sure about this time last season, some people were looking forward to playing teams like the 2-14 Colts and the 3-13 Vikings.

spiralism

Waaaayyy too early to call how the games will pan out as jp said there, after all, we were projected as having a seriously rough schedule that we'd have done well to get 10 wins out of this year back when the fixtures were made but instead we breezed through it and half the fixtures turned out to be far easier than initially thought.

eagle eye

Rochey18 wrote: »

OOOO to be a Patriot fan :rolleyes:

What does this mean?

padraig_f

That's a brutal schedule for the Bears....AFC North, NFC East, NFC North x 2, Saints, Rams.

HigginsJ

Manning Bowl in the MetLife.

Giants will open 6-2 and fade badly down the stretch to finish 9-7 or 8-8

Justin10

eagle eye wrote: »

What does this mean?

No matter what your schedule is to come out and say we might lose a game, but when you have teams like Denver, Saints and the Steelers coming its a bit over confident.

That would be great to have that sort of confidence on the west coast.

J. Football

Rochey18 wrote: »

No matter what your schedule is to come out and say we might lose a game, but when you have teams like Denver, Saints and the Steelers coming its a bit over confident.

That would be great to have that sort of confidence on the west coast.

The Patriots would be favourites with the bookies for all their home games. The only two you could make an argument for them being underdogs in would be Baltimore and Atlanta away - and that's being generious - so thinking they would go 14-2 or 13-3 isn't exactly homerism. It's a perfectly logical and reasonable prediction if you ask me.

jack presley

J. Football wrote: »

The Patriots would be favourites with the bookies for all their home games. The only two you could make an argument for them being underdogs in would be Baltimore and Atlanta away - and that's being generious - so thinking they would go 14-2 or 13-3 isn't exactly homerism. It's a perfectly logical and reasonable prediction if you ask me.

Logical and reasonable yes if you're basing it on this year's rosters and this year's performances. Will they have any resemblance to next year's teams and how the teams will play next season? Who knows on January 1st? Too much to happen between now and September 2013

padraig_f

J. Football wrote: »

The Patriots would be favourites with the bookies for all their home games. The only two you could make an argument for them being underdogs in would be Baltimore and Atlanta away - and that's being generious - so thinking they would go 14-2 or 13-3 isn't exactly homerism. It's a perfectly logical and reasonable prediction if you ask me.

Favourites don't win 100% of their games. That's kind of stating the obvious, but it's what people seem to assume when they're predicting season win totals. e.g. who had the Patriots losing to the Cardinals this season?

To win 13-14 games, pretty much nothing has to go wrong for you all season. The bookies' over-under for the Patriots in 2012 was 12 wins, and they got it exactly right (even with the Patriots enjoying the biggest positive turnover differential in the league).

13-14 wins is an over-estimate. Only two teams won 13 games this season (Broncos, Falcons). It could happen, but it's not the most likely result.

Below are the projected the season-win lines prior to the 2012 season (with how many games the teams actually won in brackets). 12 was the highest projection (even for the Packers coming off a 15-1 season the year before) and neither of the teams projected to win 12 games went over. Of the 6 teams projected to win 10 games, only 2 went over (49ers, Texans).

Cantor win totals (May 2012):

12
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (12)
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11)


10
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4)
HOUSTON TEXANS (12)
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7)
BALTIMORE RAVENS (10)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8)


9.5
DETROIT LIONS (4)
DENVER BRONCOS (13)
NEW YORK GIANTS (8)


9
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (7)
ATLANTA FALCONS (13)


8.5
CHICAGO BEARS (10)
NEW YORK JETS (6)
DALLAS COWBOYS (8)

8
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2)


7.5
CINCINNATI BENGALS (10)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7)
CAROLINA PANTHERS (7)


7
BUFFALO BILLS (6)
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (11)
TENNESSEE TITANS (6)
OAKLAND RAIDERS (4)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (5)


6.5
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (10)


6
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (10)
ST. LOUIS RAMS (7)
TAMPA BAY BUCS (7)


5.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (11)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2)
CLEVELAND BROWNS (5)

Knex*

HigginsJ wrote: »

Manning Bowl in the MetLife.

Giants will open 6-2 and fade badly down the stretch to finish 9-7 or 8-8

Sounds familiar.

eagle eye

Rochey18 wrote: »

No matter what your schedule is to come out and say we might lose a game, but when you have teams like Denver, Saints and the Steelers coming its a bit over confident.

That would be great to have that sort of confidence on the west coast.

It really is a 50/50 shot whether we lose one at home or not. Its not over confidence or anything of the sort just talking by the numbers.

eagle eye

padraig_f wrote: »

Favourites don't win 100% of their games. That's kind of stating the obvious, but it's what people seem to assume when they're predicting season win totals. e.g. who had the Patriots losing to the Cardinals this season?

To win 13-14 games, pretty much nothing has to go wrong for you all season. The bookies' over-under for the Patriots in 2012 was 12 wins, and they got it exactly right (even with the Patriots enjoying the biggest positive turnover differential in the league).

13-14 wins is an over-estimate. Only two teams won 13 games this season (Broncos, Falcons). It could happen, but it's not the most likely result.

Below are the projected the season-win lines prior to the 2012 season (with how many games the teams actually won in brackets). 12 was the highest projection (even for the Packers coming off a 15-1 season the year before) and neither of the teams projected to win 12 games went over. Of the 6 teams projected to win 10 games, only 2 went over (49ers, Texans).

What was the over/under for 2011 and 2010 when we went 13-3 and 14-2?

The Patriots lost games controversially early on this season because of the replacement refs. It was expected for a long time that there would be no strike so I hardly think the replacement refs came into the equation when these game totals were being decided.

padraig_f

eagle eye wrote: »

What was the over/under for 2011 and 2010 when we went 13-3 and 14-2?

The Patriots lost games controversially early on this season because of the replacement refs. It was expected for a long time that there would be no strike so I hardly think the replacement refs came into the equation when these game totals were being decided.

I'm sure they were less, but it doesn't make them a bad estimate. If you project 13 or 14 wins, it's an over-estimate because it's assuming the best possible scenario. The bookies estimate is an average, which includes a balance of possibilities. A projection of 12 means mostly 12, sometimes 13 or 14, sometimes 11 or 10.

The refereeing argument I don't really buy. Every team has bad refereeing calls made against them. You're talking about some debatable holding and pass-interference calls, these happen every week in the NFL. Because it was replacement refs, people jumped down their throat more. There were some horrible pass-interference calls in the recent Packers-Bears game and no-one said anything because it was the official refs. There will be bad refereeing calls next season as well.


People generally over-estimate win totals (or under-estimate for weaker teams) because they add it up something like:
Patriots vs. Dolphins - that's a definite win for the Patriots.
etc.

The way the bookies calculate it is:
Patriots vs. Dolphins - that's an 80% win for the Patriots, or 0.8 wins.

If you do it the first way, and you calculate 5 such games, you get 5 wins for the Patriots.

Whereas the bookie says: 5 x 0.8 wins = 4 wins. Which accounts for unexpected results like losing to the Cardinals. Such a loss is unlikely over any one game, but over a number of games it's quite likely.

The bookies way is better, and there's no way they'll set the total for the Patriots next season at 13 or 14. You can see that with the Packers coming off a 15-win season and projected to win 12 games last season. They know the 13-15-win season is an outlier, when things went particularly well for the team.

eagle eye

padraig_f wrote: »

I'm sure they were less, but it doesn't make them a bad estimate. If you project 13 or 14 wins, it's an over-estimate because it's assuming the best possible scenario. The bookies estimate is an average, which includes a balance of possibilities. A projection of 12 means mostly 12, sometimes 13 or 14, sometimes 11 or 10.

Over the past six seasons the Patriots are averaging over 12 wins per season. Over the past three seasons the Patriots are averaging over 12 wins per season.
I'm not looking at best case scenario because that would be at least 14 but more often 15 or 16 wins for the Patriots.

padraig_f wrote: »

The refereeing argument I don't really buy. Every team has bad refereeing calls made against them. You're talking about some debatable holding and pass-interference calls, these happen every week in the NFL. Because it was replacement refs, people jumped down their throat more. There were some horrible pass-interference calls in the recent Packers-Bears game and no-one said anything because it was the official refs. There will be bad refereeing calls next season as well.

I'm not going to get into this now but the Patriots lost two games due to calls that the regular officials would always make.

padraig_f wrote: »

People generally over-estimate win totals (or under-estimate for weaker teams) because they add it up something like:
Patriots vs. Dolphins - that's a definite win for the Patriots.
etc.

The way the bookies calculate it is:
Patriots vs. Dolphins - that's an 80% win for the Patriots, or 0.8 wins.

If you do it the first way, and you calculate 5 such games, you get 5 wins for the Patriots.

Whereas the bookie says: 5 x 0.8 wins = 4 wins. Which accounts for unexpected results like losing to the Cardinals. Such a loss is unlikely over any one game, but over a number of games it's quite likely.

The bookies way is better, and there's no way they'll set the total for the Patriots next season at 13 or 14. You can see that with the Packers coming off a 15-win season and projected to win 12 games last season. They know the 13-15-win season is an outlier, when things went particularly well for the team.

Each game is different and you are talking in infinite numbers here. Also the sample size is far too small for that math. It has to be far more refined to have any credibility.
The Patriots season wins are generally defined by their divisional games. If they lose two divisional games the likelihood is they won't be any better than 12 wins, if they only lose one game then they are likely to beat 12 wins and so on. This year was an anomaly because they won all their divisional games but still lost 4.

My comments were just based on general numbers over the past couple of seasons. Realistically we cannot assess how it will unfold until after the draft and free agency.

Richard Hillman

Very tough home schedule for the Chargers but friendlier away. Im going for an 8-8 season :cool:

I think we can assume Manning V Luck and Manning V Manning as bankers for Sunday Night Football

davyjose

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Very tough home schedule for the Chargers but friendlier away. Im going for an 8-8 season :cool:

I think we can assume Manning V Luck and Manning V Manning as bankers for Sunday Night Football

Luck V Wilson too

spiralism

Could see Manning/RGIII being a Monday night game too. Some seriously interesting matchups.

Regarding the Pats, i'd say about 11-12 wins. Toughest slate in a while but they always drop one game unexpectedly(AZ this year, Buffalo 2011, Cleveland 2010) and have about 2 or 3 games against top teams they'll lose as well.

Worth pointing out too that a slew of coaching changes league wide could affect the fixtures drastically. Who's to say Lovie Smith wouldn't take the job at Buffalo for example? They'd likely improve drastically then.

SantryRed

There's really no point in discussing this now. It's the NFL, so much can change in the next 6 months.

GampDub

Any idea when the dates for the schedule are realeased? Heading to the states early sept next year and definitely want to get a game in?

Benimar

GampDub wrote: »

Any idea when the dates for the schedule are realeased? Heading to the states early sept next year and definitely want to get a game in?

A few games will be announced in March, but usually just the season opener, Thanksgiving games etc.

The full schedule comes out early/mid April.

GampDub

Benimar wrote: »

A few games will be announced in March, but usually just the season opener, Thanksgiving games etc.

The full schedule comes out early/mid April.

Thanks for this, give me plenty of time to sort out my trip so! Could get lucky and try and work two games in

SantryRed

I assume the pre season schedule comes out around the same time? Also, does anyone know how difficult it is to get tickets to Lambeau Field for a pre season game? Even though it is pre season it'd still be epic!!