Thursaday 27th Dec

Juwwi

Another goods days racing on the cards tomorrow,

One that stands out to me is Wishfull Thinking at 5/2 2.40pm Kempton.

Santuaire had a hard race 19 days ago and in the heavy going he is
going to struggle to get home.
Wishfull Thinking has winning form over further I fancy him to outstay
Santuaire.

Some good racing at Leopardstown aswell with a great novice hurdle.
Im gona back Waheeb in that against the favoutite.

Anyone else fancy anything.

Colonel Sanders

Decent days racing

Bright New Dawn beat Ned Buntaline last time out & he won what looked a red hot maiden hurdle today. Not sure he'll beat Jezki but could be an each way bet to nothing.

Shane732

robbie1977 wrote: »

Another goods days racing on the cars tomorrow,

One that stands out to me is Wishfull Thinking at 5/2 2.40pm Kempton.

Santuaire had a hard race 19 days ago and in the heavy going he is
going to struggle to get home.
Wishfull Thinking has winning form over further I fancy him to outstay
Santuaire.

Some good racing at Leopardstown aswell with a great novice hurdle.
Im gona back Waheeb in that against the favoutite.

Anyone else fancy anything.

I assume McCoy is over for Waheeb? I suppose there's Colbert Station as well, although that race is wide open.

I've backed Irish Saint without knowing a lot about him but he's been tipped up everywhere.

I think is Sanctuaire is too short and agree that Wishful Thinking might be worth a couple of quid.

I hope Simonsig will follow up with another impressive performance. He's far too short to back.

Juwwi

Yea McCoy is over he has a few nice mounts.

Sizing Europe's race is another good one but I could'nt back him at 2/5.
If you ignored Rubi Lights last run you could give him a chance in the ground but its probably a race to watch.

Slattsy

robbie1977 wrote: »

Yea McCoy is over he has a few nice mounts.

Sizing Europe's race is another good one but I could'nt back him at 2/5.
If you ignored Rubi Lights last run you could give him a chance in the ground but its probably a race to watch.

Sizing Europe is a great price.
He should be 1/10

Juwwi

Slattsy wrote: »

Sizing Europe is a great price.
He should be 1/10

He's by far the best horse.
He's a great jumper.
He's beaten them before.

But he's starting to get old now.
He's better on good ground
He's better in the spring.

He's definately not a 1/10 shot and imo because he is days away from being 11
I woul'nt say he's a great price at 2/5 either.

But I would'nt lay 200 to win 500 either.

Good luck if you back him.

kksaints

Its the 27th not the the 28th. Shame the Welsh National is off.

hucklebuck

I too am drawn to Wishfull Thinking, he is much better than the beating he took off FNS. I thought Sanctuaire was better than he showed against SS but I'm just not convinced, I suspect he was too fresh the last day but none the less he found nothing about 6 furlongs out.

I think bet de jour is an accumulator Sizing Europe, For Non Stop, Wishfull Thinking and Simonsig at 17/1. I might throw Jezki (?) in too

Big Daddy Cool

Like your Style in the paddy power chase, backed it in the troytown and it came from miles back to nearly get there at the finish and the ground was heavy to.

Carrigmartin in the paddy power hurdle, looks to be on a favourable mark, think its lower then his chase mark, handles sorft to heavy as well.

Johner

For Non Stop and Waaheb for me today.

Panrich

My yankee for the day
Bright New Dawn
Bunglasha Lady
For Non Stop
Wishful Thinking.

Good luck to all.

droidman123

I rarely back e/w but I think fosters cross is too big in the 3.10 leop. Paddy power is paying first 5. Might have an e/w nibble on it. Character actor to turn over likely fav drumshambo at wetherby. Best of luck to everyone.

Shane732

Good start for Irish Saint.

UrbanSea

Cracking card at Leopardstown. Fancy Leah Claire in the handicap hurdle at 14/1. Was going to back Nintieth Minute in the handicap chase but 12/1 isn't for me was 25 this morning.

Small bet on Spider Zigato at Wetherby at 18/1

Shane732

Any chance of Sizing Europe drifting a bit?

droidman123

Shane732 wrote: »

Any chance of Sizing Europe drifting a bit?

Possibly,if the money starts coming for big zeb,but either way s.e. is gonna start long odds on.

prettyboy81

Fancy Uncle Junior to place in the big handicap chase & took 25/1 with PaddyPower paying 5 places.

Nulty

Is there no Kempton on terrestrial tv today?

Shane732

Nulty wrote: »

Is there no Kempton on terrestrial tv today?

Don't think so.

Johner

Was Celtic Cailins maiden hurdle win overturned on appeal or something?

Morgans

Think Celtic Cailin could win this but have backed her without at 5/4, I think her form gives her a good chance and was unlucky last time out in a good handicap.

droidman123

Shane732 wrote: »

Don't think so.

C4 never show the second day..shame. .means i have to go to the pub to watch it : )

Shane732

droidman123 wrote: »

C4 never show the second day..shame. .means i have to go to the pub to watch it : )

It's a tough life isn't it! Sure it'd be rude not to have a couple of pints while you're in the pub.

Johner

Miss Milborne looks a big price at 13/2 in the Mares handicap hurdle at Kempton. Will be tough under top weight though.

Shane732

Well I don't think that was overly impressive. He didn't jump very well and seemed to empty out in front - maybe just idling?

Big Daddy Cool

Shane732 wrote: »

Well I don't think that was overly impressive.

agreed, dont think Nicky Henderson will lose any sleep after watching that, i'd be amazed if they take on Sprinter Sacre now.

UrbanSea

I thought it was a good performance. Not sure if he was tired or if he got lonely out in front. Rubi Light ran brilliantly, will probably be good form when you look at the distance back to the other three

Johner

Rubi Light jumped super most of the way round, gained at every fence.

Shane732

Now that was impressive!

0ph0rce0

Just jogged pass them all

Big Daddy Cool

Was that even a grade 1 contest :eek:. very very impressive.

hucklebuck

I hate racing....

For Non Stop never went a yard and gazumped ALL my bets today

0ph0rce0

Never had a non-runner before

Whats the story with that, if you hand the slip in will you get your stake back?

Slattsy

Me too :mad:

UrbanSea

Can't believe the price of Tennis Cap in the next. Far too short. Don't like backing horses like him, he had plenty of chances to win a maiden. 7/2 a crazy price in a 16 runner field for him

BQQ

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Never had a non-runner before

Whats the story with that, if you hand the slip in will you get your stake back?

Yes, you will. ( unless it was an ante-post bet )

0ph0rce0

BQQ wrote: »

Yes, you will. ( unless it was an ante-post bet )

I only bet not long before the race and the odds were up so I should be ok right??

BQQ

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

I only bet not long before the race and the odds were up so I should be ok right??

Yeah. you'll get it back.

droidman123

0ph0rce0 wrote: »

Never had a non-runner before

Whats the story with that, if you hand the slip in will you get your stake back?

Yes you get all your stake back

Johner

Great attitude shown by Sanctuaire there! Thought when he was headed he would throw in the towel.

Arctic89

Anyone watching the in-running market for Sanctuaire's race? He must have touched big odds when they were turning in,very impressive for him to win the way he did after looking beaten.

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Cracking card at Leopardstown. Fancy Leah Claire in the handicap hurdle at 14/1. Was going to back Nintieth Minute in the handicap chase but 12/1 isn't for me was 25 this morning.

Small bet on Spider Zigato at Wetherby at 18/1

Leah Claire was second last turning in and ran on well to finish third. Think she has a big handicap in her over 2 miles or an extended two. Have been following her since she was second in the MCR last year, second time I backed her today, other time was when she fell when travelling like the winner four out a few months ago

Juwwi

Wishfull Thinking must of burst a blood vessell he looked to have the race won

Morgans

Wind problem. Has happened before. Has a lot of talent, but cant be punted on.

droidman123

Morgans wrote: »

Wind problem. Has happened before. Has a lot of talent, but cant be punted on.

Just got a whisper from a normally reliable source. Useul smurfer...bumper at leop. 5/1 atm

Colonel Sanders

Anyone read Pricewise today?

Despite being confronted with 97% & 96% over rounds in the 2.05 & 2.40 at Kempton respectively he couldn't find a betting angle, in fact said the 2.05 "is not a race that makes any betting appeal"

Yet tips 2 in the Paddy Power chase betting to 121% at best prices

Value tipping?

Morgans

I like pricewise for his disregard of number/stats. I dont think it comes into his thinking about overrounds. Think he could sum up those races as "trappy" with too many unpredictables in it. For instance, you would have felt very smart for opposing Sactuaire at one stage and ended up looking ridiculous. Same for Wishful Thinking.

Johner

Gone for Rathlin in the Paddy Power.

Morgans

Ted has set up one for JP here.

Farrells Fancy and Nintieth Minute fancies but no bet given the Ted gamble for JP.

droidman123

Did fosters cross e-w 33-1 was too tempting.

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

I like pricewise for his disregard of number/stats. I dont think it comes into his thinking about overrounds. Think he could sum up those races as "trappy" with too many unpredictables in it. For instance, you would have felt very smart for opposing Sactuaire at one stage and ended up looking ridiculous. Same for Wishful Thinking.

But you can't disregard the fact that if the book is under round at least one price MUST be wrong

And if the over round is 121% you are far less likely to find a horse who's odds are bigger than they should be

Give me 5/4 heads on a fair coin toss I'll take it. If tails comes up I'll do my dough & won't look clever but I'll be satisfied I made the correct play

Some people think a horse must be a big price to be value. You've far more edge backing a 6/4 shot that should be evs than a 14/1 shot that should be 10/1