Friday 21st December. (Simonsig)

Johner

The machine that is Simonsig makes his debut over fences tomorrow at Ascot in the 2.30. Nothing really in the way of opposition although the heavy ground is an unknown. Cannot wait for too see how he does.

Puffin Billy in the race before is another one I'm really looking forward too. has looked a classy sort so far.

3ndahalfof6

Agreed, I cant see anything getting close to Simonsig (even if not really liking the ground) but in the 1:55 UP TO SOMETHING looks like good value.

klairondavis

Puffin Billy could be a Supreme Novices horse if he learns to relax during his races. There hasn't been a two mile novice that has really took the breath away yet. I don't like Dodging Bullets and Jezki needs to improve a bit further. Looking forward to seeing how Waaheb gets on at Leopardstown but Weld sounded quite cautious yesterday.

RichieLawlor

Poet made a nice debut yesterday. Group winner on the flat, no idea how good he might be.

Johner

Puffin Billy/Simonsig double pays just better than 10/11 at the moment on Bet 365.

I really like Puffin Billy but as klairondavis says he will have to settle better.

SRFC

Place lay simonsig he cannot jump

UrbanSea

One I like tomorrow is Spin Again in the first at Lingfield at 12/1. This is what I had to say about him on his third last run:

A thoroughly exposed seven year old gelded son of Intikhab, he boasts a strike rate of 8 wins from 62 runs, and has proved himself to be a bit of an all weather specialist in that time frame, with five of his wins coming on that surface, with one on the fiber sand and just two turf victories. Whilst he may not look like the most obvious of selections with his form figures of 747989, the horse looks to be potentially very well treated at the minute off a mark of 65. The horse tends to save his best form for around here, and his first win at Lingfield came all the way back in August 2008 on the turf, off a mark of 72.

He became frustrating from thereafter, not registering another victory until getting off the mark in February 2010 in a six furlong claimer on the fibersand at Southwell, before having to wait another year before scoring his first victory on the all weather surface at Lingfield, landing a course and distance handicap off this mark of 65. He did prove he could handle a higher mark subsequently,however, and was runner up next time out off a three pound higher mark at Wolverhampton again over seven furlongs, trading at 1.34 before getting done. Two runs later he was again runner up at Wolverhampton, this time off a mark of 70, looking like the winner for a long way before getting done, again trading very short at 1.2. Went off the boil yet again for a couple of runs after that as he appeared to struggle with a higher mark, but hinted at form when getting placed off this mark at Wolverhampton over this trip last January.

Finally got his head in front again over this distance at Kempton on the all weather in March, easily landing what looked a competitive looking race off a mark of 60, before following up readily under a penalty a week later over this course and distance and was placed off his revised mark of 70 over at Kempton in May in a race that has worked out well, with the winner Efistorm winning two claimers and a competitive Goodwood handicap since and is now rated 74, while the fifth horse, Links Drive Lady, has won four handicaps since and has being runner up twice, and is now rated 17lbs higher than that run. Spin Again subsequently won a course and distance claimer, and landed his first turf win since was back in 2008 when winning at Yarmouth back in June off this mark. Whilst he hasn't been as good since, he did run a good forth off a mark of 72 at Wolverhampton in July and has dropped considerably since then, with his last run over this course and distance off a mark of 68 hinting at a return to form, and the handicapper has being generous in dropping him 3 pounds for that effort. He has shown in the past that a mark of 65 isn't beyond him, and his last C&D handicap win effectively came off a mark of 66 with his penalty.
He's nicely drawn in stall seven, and the stable is in form, with his trainer John Ryan having two winners in the last four days. Even if he doesn't win this race, he could be one to stick in the notebook at in and around this mark.


He should have won that day, was beaten under a length into forth, finishing like an absolute train having been boxed in until half a furlong to go. If he got out early that day he'd have won handy enough I think. Did disappoint the next two runs however, next time out was disappointing, and maybe found the next race coming too soon only a day later. Is one I think will go in soon at a price, and while he is unproven over a mile he's worth a small bet

RichieLawlor

SRFC wrote: »

Place lay simonsig he cannot jump

If Simonsig couldn't jump they wouldn't be starting him off over fences in late December they would just stick hurdling this season.

One run in a PTP doesn't mean he can't jump

prettyboy81

Really looking forward to seeing how Simonsig handles the big obstacles tomorrow. It should be a schooling session but like Boston Bob last weekend you never can tell how the horse will run 1st time out.

SRFC

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If Simonsig couldn't jump they wouldn't be starting him off over fences in late December they would just stick hurdling this season.

One run in a PTP doesn't mean he can't jump

Look im going on his p2p an his hurdles I dont think hes a great jumper dont rate his as a 3/1 shot for the arkle joke of a price and ill be laying him tomorrow to place its a cheap lay its long odds on for him to win odds are in his favour I wont have egg on my face im just putting it out there I dont think he's a machine as everyone makes out we'll know come march whose right or wrong.

mdwexford

The beast is unleashed.

Anyone who doesn't think he is a machine hasn't a clue.

Pity they didn't decide to win the Champion Hurdle instead though.

jayroyal

Here's a link to his first point to point win. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBgP78CQzdg
He seemed to hit most fences and nothing special at the last. He also fell in his next outing.
I do believe simonsig is a serious horse but laying for a place at 1/10 looks feasible. I wouldn't be backing him at 1/4 anyway that's for sure.:eek:

rossom

mdwexford wrote: »

The beast is unleashed.

Anyone who doesn't think he is a machine hasn't a clue.

Pity they didn't decide to win the Champion Hurdle instead though.

If he jumps ****e tomorrow they may well go that route. I would have gone for the CH this year myself too

MoscowFlyer

Bubbly Bailey is one I quite like the look of tomorrow. 1.35 Lingfield. It's my one and only tracker horse tomorrow. Money has come in for it as well it seems.

Armada Bay may well be worth a punt on E/W in the same race.

the groutch

he's definitely a lay thrown in the deep end first time out, and might not like the heavy ground at all

RichieLawlor

the groutch wrote: »

he's definitely a lay thrown in the deep end first time out, and might not like the heavy ground at all

You needs to look up the meaning of 'thrown in at the deep end'

Act of Kalinisi and Dare me wouldn't get in the shallow end

Slattsy

He will win tomorrow no doubt about it.
And anyone that thinks he's a ****e jumper because they seen a clip of his point a few years back is a bit deluded. He's gone to a top trainer since then ffs.

Regarding why he didn't stick to hurdling you'd have to wonder that connections or maybe Henderson himself simply doesn't think he's up to it. He knows how to win a CH doesn't he... Maybe Darlan is the reason? But saying he'd win that CH is again a bit deluded.

SRFC

Slattsy wrote: »

He will win tomorrow no doubt about it.
And anyone that thinks he's a ****e jumper because they seen a clip of his point a few years back is a bit deluded. He's gone to a top trainer since then ffs.

Regarding why he didn't stick to hurdling you'd have to wonder that connections or maybe Henderson himself simply doesn't think he's up to it. He knows how to win a CH doesn't he... Maybe Darlan is the reason? But saying he'd win that CH is again a bit deluded.

Well done your bullish about a 1/5 shot putting your neck out there if all these ''machines'' won we'd be all millionaires and there wouldnt be a bookie left FACT


A machine who has beaten felix younger and knockara beau so far :rolleyes:

Slattsy

SRFC wrote: »

Well done your bullish about a 1/5 shot putting your neck out there if all these ''machines'' won we'd be all millionaires and there wouldnt be a bookie left FACT


A machine who has beaten felix younger and knockara beau so far :rolleyes:

Easy tiger.
I'm not saying he's going to win the Arkle and go unbeaten the rest of his career.

Maybe I am millionaire bud :-)

Lol

SRFC

Slattsy wrote: »

Easy tiger.
I'm not saying he's going to win the Arkle and go unbeaten the rest of his career.

Maybe I am millionaire bud :-)

Lol

Im against this for the season its not a top notcher in my book ill get it beaten if it wins tomorrow easy it will be shorter for the arkle and ill get him beat at a short price then first day of the festival banker lay

mdwexford

Slattsy wrote: »

He will win tomorrow no doubt about it.
And anyone that thinks he's a ****e jumper because they seen a clip of his point a few years back is a bit deluded. He's gone to a top trainer since then ffs.

Regarding why he didn't stick to hurdling you'd have to wonder that connections or maybe Henderson himself simply doesn't think he's up to it. He knows how to win a CH doesn't he... Maybe Darlan is the reason? But saying he'd win that CH is again a bit deluded.

It's going to be a poor Champion Hurdle and he was a 160 rated novice, it's very reasonable to assume he would have an outstanding chance.

SRFC wrote: »

Well done your bullish about a 1/5 shot putting your neck out there if all these ''machines'' won we'd be all millionaires and there wouldnt be a bookie left FACT


A machine who has beaten felix younger and knockara beau so far :rolleyes:

He's rated 160 and has smashed everything including two of the biggest races of the season. Get a grip.

SRFC wrote: »

Im against this for the season its not a top notcher in my book ill get it beaten if it wins tomorrow easy it will be shorter for the arkle and ill get him beat at a short price then first day of the festival banker lay

You're basing it on nothing.
Your book must be awful.

SRFC

He's rated 160 and has smashed everything including two of the biggest races of the season. Get a grip.



You're basing it on nothing.
Your book must be awful.[/QUOTE]




He beat felix younger by 7 lenghts ffs that pig couldnt win a maiden hurdle around cork,beat knockara beau whose an absolute screw nearly sure he was tailed off in a handicap chase around kelso last week


Look at his aintree win beat flycorn baby shine and super duty im quicker than flycorn ffs colour squadron was going well when he fell he would of had a race to beat him


Cotton mill was going just aswell beside him at cheltenham he since ran in one of the worse grade ones ive seen won by lovcen and was well beaten in that


Finally fingal bay beat him fair an square at sandown he's hardly a machine

even go look at his bumper win in fairyhouse and show me one decent horse he beat there (there isnt)



so please try crab them facts do your best you cannot argue with them

mdwexford

It doesn't matter, he's crushed everything he's ran against easily.

He was sick vs Fingal Bay so forget that.

Your facts as you call them mean nothing.

klairondavis

He looked a proper horse last year but I'm not surprised he's not going down the Champion Hurdle route. His hurdling wasn't brilliant last year and Geraghty admitted that it was the reason why he didn't go in the Supreme Novices because they felt that he was more likely to get away with a mistake in the longer race. It's no surprise he's going over fences now because another year hurdling would only lead to him developing further bad habits.

SRFC

mdwexford wrote: »

It doesn't matter, he's crushed everything he's ran against easily.

He was sick vs Fingal Bay so forget that.

Your facts as you call them mean nothing.

More like you cant argue the facts of his machine like form wouldnt win a champion hurdle if he started now and wont be winning an arkle either

mdwexford

SRFC wrote: »

More like you cant argue the facts of his machine like form wouldnt win a champion hurdle if he started now and wont be winning an arkle either

You haven't a clue what you are talking about.

Keep on laying superstars for no reason, people like you deserve to lose money.

Huntley

Whatever about his style in winning he hasn't beat anything significant yet.

Considering what he did over hurdles it isn't surprising that he isn't going the Champion Hurdle route.

RichieLawlor

SRFC wrote: »

He beat felix younger by 7 lenghts ffs that pig couldnt win a maiden hurdle around cork,beat knockara beau whose an absolute screw nearly sure he was tailed off in a handicap chase around kelso last week


Look at his aintree win beat flycorn baby shine and super duty im quicker than flycorn ffs colour squadron was going well when he fell he would of had a race to beat him


Cotton mill was going just aswell beside him at cheltenham he since ran in one of the worse grade ones ive seen won by lovcen and was well beaten in that


Finally fingal bay beat him fair an square at sandown he's hardly a machine

even go look at his bumper win in fairyhouse and show me one decent horse he beat there (there isnt)



so please try crab them facts do your best you cannot argue with them

So what your saying is his victory over Knockara Beau in the Morebattle is a true and complete reflection of his ability.

You need to watch the race again.

Also you think when he won the Sun Alliance Hurdle doing handstands was Simonsig all out do you?

You need to watch the race again.

And finally when he picked up that Aintree field and swatted them hard on the steel was again, as much as be was capable of?

You need to watch the race again.

Now you may be correct in your assumption, maybe he can't jump, maybe he isn't that good BUT, you have nothing to base that on yet. It's your opinion.

The fact is he is one of the highest rated novice hurdlers in years.

Argue those facts my friend

hucklebuck

I'm a massive fan of his but wont be near him first time out in a bog. I will lay him today as if he is a bit sketchy jumping out of the ground or not happy running in it he will not be pushed to his limit

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

I'm a massive fan of his but wont be near him first time out in a bog. I will lay him today as if he is a bit sketchy jumping out of the ground or not happy running in it he will not be pushed to his limit

I think the slower pace in that ground will help his jumping and help him settle

mountai

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Poet made a nice debut yesterday. Group winner on the flat, no idea how good he might be.

I think this horse could be something special. I had a small antipost bet at 33-1 for the novice hurdle in march.

RichieLawlor

Although I am in two minds as to how I would like him to fare today, I've taken some silly prices for the Champion Hurdle earlier in the season so I would like to see him turn up there aswell

Morgans

But you realise that winning at Aintree and Cheltenham in the style that he did was all that he could do, so far.

I think had he looked like struggling against them at any time, I think there would be a point in what you are making.

I can think of very few Henderson horses that struggle to jump - strong links to Yogi Breisner etc.

I wouldnt have him down as an Arkle horse, but if he was to dot up against bad opposition throughout this year, its hardly something to beat the horse with. He didnt beat Felix Yonger, he had him stone cold half a mile from home pulling a cart. Horses like Super Duty arent great horses, but they arent awful. Super Duty tried to go with him and collapsed as if shot after the second last. Simonsig was cantering.

Definitely not a backer today, and can see why people can oppose him for the Arkle, but to me he is a well above average G1 novice hurdler going chasing.

RichieLawlor

Absolutely hate that statement from NJH this morning

'If things went badly wrong here or later he wouldn't do it but I'm hoping we are Arkle-bound rather than going for the Champion Hurdle'

RichieLawlor

If he isn't a natural chaser then I hope NJH isn't trying to force it because of all the CH horses he already has

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If he isn't a natural chaser then I hope NJH isn't trying to force it because of all the CH horses he already has

It certainly smacks of that and I fear it will end in tears, oh and if he reverts to plan B he won't be winning any champion hurdle either.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

It certainly smacks of that and I fear it will end in tears, oh and if he reverts to plan B he won't be winning any champion hurdle either.

This needs to go right imo, you won't win a CH as a plan B.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

It certainly smacks of that and I fear it will end in tears, oh and if he reverts to plan B he won't be winning any champion hurdle either.

I don't agree with the 2nd part, he would run all over last years CH field. Rock on Ruby wouldn't see which way he went

Slattsy

Geraghty has publicy said Simonsig has been schooling great at home.

So can everyone just relax !! Stop the speculating, at least until after today :cool:

realdanbreen

Slattsy wrote: »

Easy tiger.


Maybe I am millionaire bud :-)

Lol

I doubt it Slattsy, like most of the regular posters here you probably haven't
a lot. Real punters like myself tend to lie low and keep a low profile rather than playing on blogs.

Slattsy

realdanbreen wrote: »

I doubt it Slattsy, like most of the regular posters here you probably haven't
a lot. Real punters like myself tend to lie low and keep a low profile rather than playing on blogs.

:rolleyes:

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I don't agree with the 2nd part, he would run all over last years CH field. Rock on Ruby wouldn't see which way he went

He will have to be alot better than ROR to win this years champion IMO three horse's will def finish ahead of ROR as it stands, last years result was an abberation IMO.

Johner

Puffin Billy looks a machine so far!

klairondavis

Johner wrote: »

Puffin Billy looks a machine so far!

It was not the strongest of Grade 2s but he could not have been more impressive.

RichieLawlor

I wonder are the owners of Puffin Billy in a position to hold onto him. I expect we will see him running in different silks next time up

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

He will win tomorrow no doubt about it.
And anyone that thinks he's a ****e jumper because they seen a clip of his point a few years back is a bit deluded. He's gone to a top trainer since then ffs.

Regarding why he didn't stick to hurdling you'd have to wonder that connections or maybe Henderson himself simply doesn't think he's up to it. He knows how to win a CH doesn't he... Maybe Darlan is the reason? But saying he'd win that CH is again a bit deluded.

He fell in his other P2P

Johner

klairondavis wrote: »

It was not the strongest of Grade 2s but he could not have been more impressive.

True, the second horse beat My Tent Or Yours in a bumper though so is decent enough.

He has barely came off the bridle in his 4 starts so far. I said after his Ascot bumper win that he was my pick for the Champion Bumper but didn't realise he would go hurdling so soon. Not the most fluent of jumpers but its early days yet, he seems to have some engine on him and he settled a lot better today. It would be interesting to see what Barry Geragthy says about him after. If there is an interview could someone let me know!

klairondavis

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I wonder are the owners of Puffin Billy in a position to hold onto him. I expect we will see him running in different silks next time up

The owner lives in New Zealand and he flies to England to see him run. I doubt he's short of a few bob.

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

He fell in his other P2P

My point still stands.... he has gone to a top top trainer since then.

klairondavis

The one reservation I'd have over Puffin Billy is whether he will be as effective on quicker ground. Heron Island's tend to need a bit of cut.

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

My point still stands.... he has gone to a top top trainer since then.

Yeah but your talking fantasy whereas there is solid evidence to date that he didn't look like a natural jumper. I hope he is good, but he obviously needs to prove it.

Especially as Geraghty was worried about jumping hurdles last year