Hong Kong - Wednesday 19/12/12

dave3004

How are ya lads.

I'll keep this simple. I've done a very thorough job on the form for the HK meeting I'm trading 2moro night so thought I'd throw up the horses I am keeping safe and think will run very well. Picked 2 out in most races. All about the positioning going into the turn in most of these races. Anyway, this is the first time I've done this so will see how we go

R1. Megabucks / Invictus
R2. My Memory / Demon Demon
R3. Endowing / Travel Brand
R4. Sure Champ
R5. El Zonda
R6. Flashing Guy
R7. Samadhi / Rainbow Fighter
R8. Absolute Fantasy / Forgive & Forget

Slattsy

Fair play to you for that, will have an interest in those races now.

Although, because i now have an interest in those races i may lose money, so you're actually a prick :P



Good work

hucklebuck

Fair play Dave, I will have an keen eye on these.

How is the job going by the way?

hucklebuck

Can someone help please, I can't find where to back anything on B365 or Betfair, do I need to use another firm?

Slattsy

There's generally an International section on bet365 bud?

dave3004

You wont find markets on HK racing with Bet365 yet. Will have to wait till later. Give it another 3 or 4 hours. They normally copy my prices ! Just kidding. But alot of that does go on.

The HKJC website is class. You can check the odds on the HK Tote too there. Its gas. There can be 200m+ on maidens. They love the punt.

Job is going great but there is a crazy amount to learn. I thought I knew a little about horse racing. Turns out I know nothing. I also learned you can never ever beat the bookies.

My best bets for the card are Travel Brand, Invictus, Demon Demon.

Cant wait to trade this meeting as I don't think I've ever studied as much for a card.

Queue me getting bashed by punters!

Note - The last 15 seconds b4 the off, have a look at the HK Tote and watch something half in price in seconds even though there's already 100m+ in the pool. Its crazy and normally spot on.

Good luck.

dave3004

Prob best staying clear of my picks in r6 & r7. They seem very open races and I've prob got them wrong.

ste2010

How did you get on Dave ?
Would be interested in the things a bookie is studying that are different from you in the past to come to the realization you can't beat the bookies? Other than trading on prices?

dave3004

Was a strange nights racing but if you followed above you would have gotten a couple of winners.

Good question Ste. What has made me change my mind?

Ah its simple really. I didn't know how much analysis actually went into it all. Every winning bet you ever make is analysed, where you put the bet on, what time, what price, who you backed etc etc.

Bookies have the ability to amend what you can bet on. So for really shrewd punters we allow them a very small lay to lose and then whatever they back we shorten those selections. These are known as price markers and save bookies millions every year.

We dont allow multis to some punters, others cant get early prices and others cant get on within 2 mins of off-time.

Just a couple of things there but plenty more reasons too....

ste2010

dave3004 wrote: »

Was a strange nights racing but if you followed above you would have gotten a couple of winners.

Good question Ste. What has made me change my mind?

Ah its simple really. I didn't know how much analysis actually went into it all. Every winning bet you ever make is analysed, where you put the bet on, what time, what price, who you backed etc etc.

Bookies have the ability to amend what you can bet on. So for really shrewd punters we allow them a very small lay to lose and then whatever they back we shorten those selections. These are known as price markers and save bookies millions every year.

We dont allow multis to some punters, others cant get early prices and others cant get on within 2 mins of off-time.

Just a couple of things there but plenty more reasons too....

Cheers Dave - sounds very strategic and alot of behind the scenes stuff going on..I always wondered if you could become a bookie on betfair..but the real answer is probably yes but with limitations to compete with the bigger players when they have a set up like that

dave3004

Everything has a price. The shrewd punters are all very price sensitive. So u could become a bookie technically on betfair if you know what price they all should be.

Every punter has a rating too of how good they are. So the better you are the lower your rating. If your a mug, then your lay to lose is increased and you can bet how much ya want. We dont mind if a mug wins a big bet coz we will get it back but the shrewdies win and you'll never see that money again.

The mugs are known as VIPs. They get offers like Top Tote etc to keep them betting with us. Even VIPs have connections though so we'd still have notes on their accs saying "Has a connection to Cecil yard" or "Can get word for horses running in Vaal" etc. So we'd exclude the punter from early markets in Vaal, or decrease their lay to lose there.

And also, alot of trainers and owners bet with us so we betback. If Paul Nicholls bets on Sanctuaire we will go on the Totes and bet on Sanctuaire 20% of what he bets to hedge our liability.

The bookies dont always win, we have bad days like punters but like casinos, over time we should get up due to the overrounds on each runner