Tuesday 18th December

rossom

2.10 Catterick Carmela Maria 16/1. Write up to come but I can't see the price lasting long at all.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

2.10 Catterick Carmela Maria 16/1. Write up to come but I can't see the price lasting long at all.

25/1 now with Betvictor

rossom

2.10 Catterick

Carmela Maria 25/1

Not at all surprised to see an influx of money and a massive drop in price for Carmela Maria who was successful in this race last year and I think she's gone to run a mighty race in her quest to land this for a second year running at a track where she seems a completely different animal. Carmela Maria came into this race last year off a 1lb lower mark off 84 a maiden after 15 attempts over hurdles but broke her duck under a very patient ride under Joe Colliver as she came from a different county to get up to win by a head on the line for the Mike Sowesby team. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Tippering going down by a neck off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Easement ran a really good race in defeat off a 7lb higher mark on his next start. Two weeks after her first success over hurdles she returned to Catterick over the same C+D off a 5lb higher mark of 90 where she ran out a very impressive winner in testing conditions to score by 7L in a slog with the front two pulling miles clear of the rest. In the Conditional Jockeys race under today's jockey Ed Linehan, Carmela Maria travelled into the race sweetly from off the pace and hit the front by about a length coming up to the final flight. She barely got off the ground as she absolutely smashed into the last hurdle but she still had some juice left in the tank as she pulled clear up the short run in. Again, the form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Phoenix Lady scoring off a 5lb higher mark on her only subsequent start. Carmela Maria was turned out unpenalised for that success, she was turned out quickly enough when disappointing as favourite at Southwell at the start of January this year (beaten 7L) but a return to her favourite venue saw her go very close off a 12lb higher mark of 102 in February of this year as she went down by 1L as she stayed onto 3rd close home.

Again under patient tactics, Ed Linehan worked Carmela Maria nicely and she looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for minor money. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Since that race, Carmela Maria has had 6 starts over hurdles and has been disappointing in all of them but resultantly her mark has fallen from 103 all the way back down to 85 and based on her course form she looks a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, her last 3 starts have seen her wear cheekpieces as opposed to her usual blinkers, which are reapplied for tomorrow's contest, and she has also been ridden far more forcefully in her last 2 starts and I definitely feel she will be given a waiting ride tomorrow. A real course specialist, her form over tomorrow's C+D reads 1-1-3 and there is no question in my mind that she is a completely different proposition around Catterick's undulating track. I definitely feel that connections have earmarked this race for quite a while and have gotten her back down to a very favourable mark for a race she was successful in last year off only a 1lb lower mark. Given that this 7 year old was a ready winner off 5lb higher mark a year ago and beaten only 1L off a 17lb higher mark, its very clear that she is a very well handicapped horse on that form and I am confident the reapplication of blinkers coupled with a return to Catterick will certainly spark a revival for this mare. Ed Linehan takes a valuable 7lb getting her racing weight down to a lovely 9-12 and she shouldn't have any problems with conditions and should relish this if it becomes a slog. With an awful lot in her favour, I'm confident Mike Sowesby's mare will bounce back from a string of poor efforts and fancy her to land this race for the 2nd year running.

Slattsy

Only 4/1 with bet365.
Hopefully it comes in for anyone that got 16s or 25s, great picking.
Good luck.

Morgans

Will be shouting this one on. Great picking. Hope each way was nabbed at those prices. Well done on sniffing out that price.

cack_handed

Absolute belter of a pick in fairness, no surprise if this one goes off favourite now. Best of luck with it

mountai

thanks rossom you are better than Santa !!!!!!:)

An absolutely cracking pick there Rossom. 10/10

Very well done. I hope many were on at the big price!!!

BlueBaron

Thanks Rossom, follow you religiously, had only a fiver to my name today so it was a nice welcome, fair play

cack_handed

Was only following the race on the exchange prices, looked attritional! Fantastic tipping, enjoy xmas!

rossom

rossom wrote: »

2.10 Catterick

Carmela Maria 25/1

Not at all surprised to see an influx of money and a massive drop in price for Carmela Maria who was successful in this race last year and I think she's gone to run a mighty race in her quest to land this for a second year running at a track where she seems a completely different animal. Carmela Maria came into this race last year off a 1lb lower mark off 84 a maiden after 15 attempts over hurdles but broke her duck under a very patient ride under Joe Colliver as she came from a different county to get up to win by a head on the line for the Mike Sowesby team. The form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Tippering going down by a neck off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Easement ran a really good race in defeat off a 7lb higher mark on his next start. Two weeks after her first success over hurdles she returned to Catterick over the same C+D off a 5lb higher mark of 90 where she ran out a very impressive winner in testing conditions to score by 7L in a slog with the front two pulling miles clear of the rest. In the Conditional Jockeys race under today's jockey Ed Linehan, Carmela Maria travelled into the race sweetly from off the pace and hit the front by about a length coming up to the final flight. She barely got off the ground as she absolutely smashed into the last hurdle but she still had some juice left in the tank as she pulled clear up the short run in. Again, the form of that race looks strong with the 2nd Phoenix Lady scoring off a 5lb higher mark on her only subsequent start. Carmela Maria was turned out unpenalised for that success, she was turned out quickly enough when disappointing as favourite at Southwell at the start of January this year (beaten 7L) but a return to her favourite venue saw her go very close off a 12lb higher mark of 102 in February of this year as she went down by 1L as she stayed onto 3rd close home.

Again under patient tactics, Ed Linehan worked Carmela Maria nicely and she looked to hold every chance going over the last but couldn't get there in time as she had to settle for minor money. The form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner Howizee, who probably one a shade cosily, winning 2 starts later off a 2lb higher mark impressively as well as getting beaten a head off a 19lb higher mark 3 starts later and he is 22lb higher than his success that day. Since that race, Carmela Maria has had 6 starts over hurdles and has been disappointing in all of them but resultantly her mark has fallen from 103 all the way back down to 85 and based on her course form she looks a very well handicapped horse. Moreover, her last 3 starts have seen her wear cheekpieces as opposed to her usual blinkers, which are reapplied for tomorrow's contest, and she has also been ridden far more forcefully in her last 2 starts and I definitely feel she will be given a waiting ride tomorrow. A real course specialist, her form over tomorrow's C+D reads 1-1-3 and there is no question in my mind that she is a completely different proposition around Catterick's undulating track. I definitely feel that connections have earmarked this race for quite a while and have gotten her back down to a very favourable mark for a race she was successful in last year off only a 1lb lower mark. Given that this 7 year old was a ready winner off 5lb higher mark a year ago and beaten only 1L off a 17lb higher mark, its very clear that she is a very well handicapped horse on that form and I am confident the reapplication of blinkers coupled with a return to Catterick will certainly spark a revival for this mare. Ed Linehan takes a valuable 7lb getting her racing weight down to a lovely 9-12 and she shouldn't have any problems with conditions and should relish this if it becomes a slog. With an awful lot in her favour, I'm confident Mike Sowesby's mare will bounce back from a string of poor efforts and fancy her to land this race for the 2nd year running.

Cheers guys

Lovely stuff. That's Christmas paid for. Glad a few of you got on

mike65

While its great picking I'm intrigued as to how the price was smashed from 16s to 4s overnight. Was it a plot? Who else knew? Is it a gambling yard?

rossom

mike65 wrote: »

While its great picking I'm intrigued as to how the price was smashed from 16s to 4s overnight. Was it a plot? Who else knew? Is it a gambling yard?

No doubt on my mind that she was aimed at the race for quite a while and got handicapped accordingly. It wouldn't take a ridiculous amount of money to move the market overnight but I'd be very surprised if some of that didn't belong to the yard

ft9

Superb stuff.

Did many people here get on at fancy prices?

Morgans

I think it was a simple error from the traders at the bookies. I dont think it would have taken a whole lot of money for them to realise they had made the rick.

Slattsy

I only seen it this morning (unfortunately) and it was 4/1 so i didnt play at that price.

But congrats to anyone one that did, and Rossom in particular for getting on at 25/1 - thats huge and great picking, well done lad.

rossom

Morgans wrote: »

I think it was a simple error from the traders at the bookies. I dont think it would have taken a whole lot of money for them to realise they had made the rick.

I wouldn't have thought so. She was woefully out of form on her last 6 starts

Colonel Sanders

Well done Rossom. Great picking

I saw you say VD (no typo....) were 25s so I didn't bother, might as well be on the moon

When I looked this morning it was 6/1 so wasn't chasing the price.

ste2010

Well done Rossom. I wasn't on (due to lack of funds) but that has to be one of the calls of the year..well done

Overthelast

rossom wrote: »

25/1 now with Betvictor

It was 13/2 at 525pm yesterday 365&vc so doubt many got on at 25/1. Regardless it was a great spot, with cd form, rating etc. didn't stick a cent on but have to admire a great pick & write up once again from Rossom. Well done sir, great to see!

the groutch

like most others, when I saw this the value was long gone, so didnt get involved.
but WD to rossom and whoever else got on at bigger prices.

Overthelast

Overthelast wrote: »

It was 13/2 at 525pm yesterday 365&vc so doubt many got on at 25/1. Regardless it was a great spot, with cd form, rating etc. didn't stick a cent on but have to admire a great pick & write up once again from Rossom. Well done sir, great to see!

Correction. I hard a brain fart just there. It was 725pm when I saw those prices

dvcireland

you need to click "all history" tab

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/catterick/14:10/winner/bet-history/carmela-maria/today

last week at Kempton, Luca Cumani had a 20/1 winner in a maiden, the next race was a maiden as well and Luca had the same jockey on board. Out of interest I kept an eye on it, it went from 33/1 to 8/1 (not indicated on screens) and came second.

DATE RACE CONDITIONS RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY RPR DIFF
12Dec12 Kem 8St C52yMd 3K 2/11 1¾L, Mallory Heights 9-0 8/1 Patrick Hills 73 13
12Dec12 Kem 8St C52yMd 3K 1/12 2¾L, Ajman Bridge 9-0 20/1 Patrick Hills 79

rossom

Cheers lads.