Heineken Cup Pools permutations

thomond2006

Team denotes a impossible or highly unlikely to qualify for the Heineken Cup knockouts.

(#) denotes number of tries scored, the rules below indicate that tries scored is the first differential used to seperate teams from different pools that have the same points.

History shows that you need at least 18 points to progress to the knockouts, so sides on less than 7 points now are effectively out. For this year, it seems 20 points could be the minimun, so I've ruled out any side with less than 10 points.

The top 2 runners up qualify for the Heineken Cup knockout stage, the 3rd-5th best runners up move into the Amlin Challenge Cup knockout stage.

Anytime I mention best runners up below, I'm talking about the top 2 for the Heineken Cup.

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/rules/index.php

Clubs in the same Pool

(ii) if Clubs are equal on points and the Clubs are in the same Pool, then qualification / ranking will be based on the two matches played between the Clubs concerned:

(a) the Club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).

(b) the Club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.

(c) the Club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.

Clubs from different Pools (if still unresolved)

(iii) if the teams have not played each other previously in the Pool stage, qualification / ranking will be based on:

(a) the number of tries scored in all Pool matches.
(b) aggregate points difference from all Pool matches.
(c) the Club with the fewest number of players sent off and / or suspended in all Pool matches.
(d) toss of a coin.

LINK TO TABLES: http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/pools/index.php

Pool 1
Saracens 14 (9)
Racing 12 (4)
Munster 11 (7)
Edinburgh 0 (0)

Edinburgh vs Munster
Racing vs Saracens

---

Munster vs Racing
Saracens vs Edinburgh

Two more wins for Saracens will guarantee them top spot. Racing are back in business in the pool and will go for it against Saracens, however that game is in Nantes, a neutral venue. As it stands Munster should be fancied more than Racing given Racing do not face Edinburgh in the remaining fixtures.

Prediction: Saracens to win pool by winning both remaining games. Racing don't look up to beating them in a neutral ground and I wouldn't back them going to Limerick. Munster to qualify as a runner up!

Why you may ask? Because I don't fancy Castres at all, therefore one of the runner spots is between Munster and Leinster. I'm backing Munster to get nine points over the two meetings with Edinburgh and Racing.

Pool 2
Leicester 14 (11)
Toulouse 13 (9)
Ospreys 9 (8)
Treviso 1 (6)

Ospreys vs Leicester
Toulouse vs Treviso

---

Treviso vs Ospreys
Leicester vs Toulouse

Ospreys win over Toulouse has blown the pool open, however Ospreys at nine points haven't enough points to challenge for a qualification so I'm ruling them out. Ospreys traditionally struggle at Treviso so I can't see them getting five points there.

Prediction: The winner of Leicester vs Toulouse will definitely go through. I will back Toulouse here, they should get five points at home to Treviso in the previous round. Toulouse's win over Leicester would knock them out.

Pool 3
Harlequins 19 (21)
Biarritz 9 (8)
Connacht 8 (3)
Zebre 0 (5)

Harlequins vs Connacht
Zebre vs Biarritz

---

Connacht vs Zebre
Biarritz vs Harlequins

Harlequins will win the pool and the other sides don't have enough points to challenge for a second place qualification. Home quarter final is extremely likely with their tries scored being far superior to most sides.

Prediction: Harlequins to win pool.

Pool 4
Ulster 15 (9)
Castres 12 (5)
N Saints 10 (6)
Glasgow 2 (4)

N Saints vs Castres
Ulster vs Glasgow

---

Castres vs Ulster
Glasgow vs Saints

Ulster will win the pool with two more wins, that should give them a home quarter final. Saints vs Castres is a crucial fixture, I don't fancy Saints to get ten points from the two games, Glasgow rarely get comfortably beaten.

Prediction: Ulster to have secured the pool before going to Castres. Castres won't beat both Ulster and Saints and therefore won't qualify. Saints may win both remaining games but won't get try bonus points.

Pool 5
Clermont 18 (10)
Leinster 10 (3)
Exeter 9 (4)
Scarlets 2 (5)

Clermont vs Exeter
Leinster vs Scarlets

---

Exeter vs Leinster
Scarlets vs Clermont

Clermont will secure the pool with one more win. They have a big chance of a home quarter final with Exeter travelling to Clermont and the hapless Scarlets remaining.

Leinster haven't become a bad side overnight, it is between themselves and Munster for the eighth spot.

Prediction: Clermont to win pool. Leinster to just miss out, they may have to better Munster's result by two points because of Munster's try count. Going to Exeter and looking for five points may be a bridge too far.

Pool 6
Toulon 18 (16)
Montpellier 13 (11)
Sale Sharks 4 (5)
Cardiff Blues 1 (4)

Toulon vs Cardiff Blues
Sale Sharks vs Montpellier

---

Montpellier vs Toulon
Cardiff Blues vs Sale Sharks

Toulon will win the pool with victory over Cardiff, that is a likely five pointer. Montpellier should be fancied as a possible second place qualifier due to the number of tries scored. Should Montpellier win at Sale, they may face a Toulon side in Round 6 that may already have a home quarter wrapped up.

Prediction: Toulon to win the pool but they will rest players in Round 6, in that case Montpellier will win both remaining games and qualify as a runner up.

RANKINGS PREDICTION

1. Harlequins (27 points)
2. Clermont (27 points) - Quins will have scored more tries.
3. Toulon (24 points)
4. Toulouse (23 points) - Level on tries with Sarries and Ulster at the moment but should bypass them in try count. Close call.
5. Ulster (23 points)
6. Saracens (23 points)

---

7. Montpellier (21 points)
8. Munster (20 points) - Munster to qualify over Leinster due to try count. Controversial!

The Quarter-Finals would be:

• Harlequins vs Munster
• Clermont vs Montpellier
• Toulon vs Saracens
• Toulouse vs Ulster

Really it is too close to call at the moment to decide second place qualifiers. We'll have a much better idea of who's left in it after Round 5. They're just my predictions now.

Please point out any glaring errors I've made!

Fireball07

Leinster

If it panned out like that, it wouldn't be too bad. Most teams away from home would beat Munster, but Quins would be the ones I'd fear least. They'd still probably win...if we couldn't beat Sarries, I doubt we'd beat them but I'd prefer Quins to Clermon/Toulon/Toulouse/Ulster

matthew8

Leinster

You're kidding yourself by crossing out the Saints. 5 points against Castres I'd say, and maybe another BP in Glasgow.

SomeFool

That was fast work thomond, fair play sir!

Benny Cake

3 tries for Leinster thus far is abysmal....

Tox56

From a Leinster point of view just get the 5 points against Scarlets at home and take it from there

tolosenc

Toulon

Tox56 wrote: »

From a Leinster point of view just get the 5 points against Scarlets at home and take it from there

Exactly.

BOD and Kearney should be back for the trip to Exeter, who would be out if we get 5 against the Scarlets.

I would love for it to be a case that Leinster need to score 10 tries to go through and for us to have a real go at that!

thomond2006

Leinster

matthew8 wrote: »

You're kidding yourself by crossing out the Saints. 5 points against Castres I'd say, and maybe another BP in Glasgow.

I suppose I should uncross them given I still give Leinster a chance. However I don't think I was kidding myself by ruling them out before.

Saints will struggle to get a losing bonus point at Glasgow, Glasgow's defence is very good. The most they've conceded at home this year is 19 points. They've conceded an average of 15 points so far in the HEC. It's their lack of attacking prowess that lets them down. Add in the likelihood of poor weather conditions in January and Saints are up against it.

5 points is possible against Castres given Castres' shocking away record, but Castres have a great chance to qualify so they'll send a strong side.

I think Saints will win both games but without bonus points.

Judgement Day

Leicester

So we're still on course for a Munster vs Ulster Final?

Provided I stay away from the betting!

tolosenc

Toulon

Don't see the runners up in pools 2, 3, or 4 breaking the 20 point barrier. Leinster and Munster to fight it out for 8th and a trip to SMM/The Stoop. Unless Toulon go after Montpellier, in which case both could make it.

Tox56

Benny Cake wrote: »

3 tries for Leinster thus far is abysmal....

We actually (remarkably) scored more tries than Clermont over the course of the two games, something to cling to I suppose...

tolosenc

Toulon

Tox56 wrote: »

We actually (remarkably) scored more tries than Clermont over the course of the two games, something to cling to I suppose...

Yeah, but unless we pummel Scarlets in January, it'll be a moral victory and nothing else. If we run over a half a dozen or more, then we are right back into it.

padser

Leinster

I'd be surprised if a team gets 20 points and doesn't get through. It's possible obviously but It would be very unfortunate...

Almaviva

Ulster

I'd say you have it correct.
Only detail would be I dont see Munster needing their tries to stay ahead of Leinster - Leinster wont get two bp wins.

.ak

Leinster

Great work Thomond.

Sad to say it, but the Munster and Ulster results have really screwed Leinster and now we need a miracle. Bad weekend for Irish rugby.

Judgement Day

Leicester

.ak wrote: »

Great work Thomond.

Sad to say it, but the Munster and Ulster results have really screwed Leinster and now we need a miracle. Bad weekend for Irish rugby.

Don't feel too bad. Spare a thought for Sale beaten (62-0) by Toulon.

Quint2010

Leinster

I can honestly see Munster getting to 21 points. Think they are home and hosed to qualify.

washman3

Leinster

Why be so certain Munster can get 5pts away in Edinburgh. they have been so pathetic so far the only way is up. they can improve a bit and give it one big lash for their final home game. Munster will win, but may be denied a bonus over there.
And dont rule out Racing in this group yet. they will relish the Saracens challenge, even though the game is fixed for Nantes.

Quint2010

Leinster

washman3 wrote: »

Why be so certain Munster can get 5pts away in Edinburgh. they have been so pathetic so far the only way is up. they can improve a bit and give it one big lash for their final home game. Munster will win, but may be denied a bonus over there.
And dont rule out Racing in this group yet. they will relish the Saracens challenge, even though the game is fixed for Nantes.

No bigger incentive for Munster than to knock Leinster out.

bilston

thomond2006 wrote: »

RANKINGS PREDICTION

1. Harlequins (27 points)
2. Clermont (27 points) - Quins will have scored more tries.
3. Toulon (24 points)
4. Toulouse (23 points) - Level on tries with Sarries and Ulster at the moment but should bypass them in try count. Close call.
5. Ulster (23 points)
6. Saracens (23 points)

---

7. Montpellier (21 points)
8. Munster (20 points) - Munster to qualify over Leinster due to try count. Controversial!

The Quarter-Finals would be:

• Harlequins vs Munster
• Clermont vs Montpellier
• Toulon vs Saracens
• Toulouse vs Ulster

Really it is too close to call at the moment to decide second place qualifiers. We'll have a much better idea of who's left in it after Round 5. They're just my predictions now.

Please point out any glaring errors I've made!

If your predictions come to pass it would suggest that the pools have been the most one sided in a few years. I was just looking at the pool stages of the last four HECs and on two occasions 23 pts has been enough for 2nd seeds and on the other two occasions it left teams as third seeds. This year 23 points could equal 6th seeds and an away QF!

Only one of the 8 best runners up in the last four years have finished with less than 20 points (Northampton 19 in 2009/10). So that suggests Leinster need 10 and Munster 9 points to have a realistic chance.

But every year is unique.

thomond2006

Leinster

Hopefully there will be a few upsets, it would make the comp more interesting.

durkadurka

It never goes as expected. Anyone who can get to 19 points should consider themselves still in it.

CatFromHue

Toulon

washman3 wrote: »

Why be so certain Munster can get 5pts away in Edinburgh. they have been so pathetic so far the only way is up. they can improve a bit and give it one big lash for their final home game. Munster will win, but may be denied a bonus over there.
And dont rule out Racing in this group yet. they will relish the Saracens challenge, even though the game is fixed for Nantes.

That's a good point. It took three tries in the last 10 mins for Munster to get the try bonus in Thomond.

In fairness to Edinburgh in the two games against Racing they only kicked 3 out of 6 penalties in the first game which they lost 19-9 and only 1 out of 6 penalties in the second game which they lost 15-3. If they'd been more accurate from the boot in either of these games they could have put the pressure on Racing and the games could have turned out different.

Munster have beaten Edinburgh in Edinburgh this season but only scored two tries in doing so (compared to three from Edinburgh) and in general Munster don't rack up big scores in Edinburgh in the Rabo.

[Jackass]

Leinster

It's not over til it's over.

With the current state of play, I'd say Thomonds predictions are pretty on the ball.

The losing bonus today may well be the clincher for Munster to get the last runner up spot. I do think it's a straight shoot out between Leinster and Munster for the last spot though.

A scenario worth consider is that Munster go away to Edinburgh, win the game and score two tries - i.e. don't click on the day and miss a bonus point win, whilst Leinster, with BOD and Kearney back hit a bit of form, and beat Scarlets with a 6 try rout in the RDS, both teams would go into the final game with 15 points in the pool and 9 tries scored to date - not a completely unthinkable scenario - and then it would come down to who can do better between Munster at home to Racing and Leinster away to Exeter....

There could still be some life left in the old dog yet....what a final day of pool action that would be

CatFromHue

Toulon

When we, Leinster, went away to Bath in the last game of the 05/06 pools stages and we had to score 4 tries as well as win, can anyone remember why we had to do this?

Or was it that we just had to win, which we did need to do, to go through?

funtime93

Whoever kicks off at three o'clock on the final sunday of pool action will know exactly what they have to do.Imo though there is no way Saints will get four at Glasgow so 19 is the best they could hope for and mark my words Sale will take Montpellier and if they dont then Toulon definitely will.I think Leicester will beat both Ospreys away and Toulouse at home to go through and therefore put Toulouse out. In that case Munster and Leinster would both squeeze through on 20 maybe 21 in Munster's case giving Munster the trip to number 2 seed Clermont and Leinster having Bloodgate part 2 away at Quins as long as they end up as number one seeds with their away match at an already out Biarritz being the biggest threat to that.

Swiwi

Leinster

Thomond, I note GT in the IT this morning says Ulster are likely to be the only Irish 1/4 finalists. Was he too lazy to do his sums, or are you too optimistic....?

totallegend

Leinster

thomond2006 wrote: »

Should Montpellier win at Sale, they may face a Toulon side in Round 6 that may already have a home quarter wrapped up.

Leinster's chances depend on this not happening.

Like, surely Sale can muster some sort of performance at home to at least put themselves in with a shout against Montpellier? Cardiff at least can blame losing key players for being so sh*t, what's Sale's excuse?

Toulon will be guaranteed progression after round 5 but hopefully will still need a win to guarantee a home QF and will pick their team accordingly. Unfortunately I think the MHR vs Toulon game will be the last to kick off, at the behest of French TV so they'll all know exactly what is needed.

Riskymove

Leinster

Swiwi wrote: »

Thomond, I note GT in the IT this morning says Ulster are likely to be the only Irish 1/4 finalists.

He doesn't rule out the others qualifying but looking at the current position it is still the most likely eventuality, dont think anyone would bet their life on Munster or Leinster

Thornley does say that Munster has abetter chance of quallifying than Leinster

I remain optimistic for Munster as the 8th seed

I still wouldn't completely disregard Racing upsetting Sarries either. Munster could yet actually top group on try count with sarries

frenchyinexile

Leinster

Still very close to call. I would be very happy if you were correct as in my opinion would leave with 3 French teams in semi's. Toulon though have such strength in depth even weak team against Montpellier could achieve a win. i think Biarittz will beat Quins though which although wont change pool will change qtr final line ups

Still all to play for I would say

totallegend

Leinster

Slightly off-topic, but of the first seeds in this year's draw, only Toulouse are looking like going through, with Munster and Leinster maybe in the mix.

Biarritz, Cardiff and Northampton were the other top seeds, probably not a fair reflection of their actual level.

Next season should see Clermont & Ulster displace Saints and Cardiff. Biarritz might cling on to their rankings but fail to qualify for the HEC and we could see Toulon as a top seed.

If the top seeds next season were Leinster, Munster, Ulster, Clermont, Toulouse, Toulon, I don't think anyone could quibble with that and it would be a more accurate reflection than this year's standings.

.ak

Leinster

Riskymove wrote: »

I still wouldn't completely disregard Racing upsetting Sarries either. Munster could yet actually top group on try count with sarries

If that happened would it increase Leinster's chances of qualifying?

totallegend

Leinster

.ak wrote: »

If that happened would it increase Leinster's chances of qualifying?

Possibly; assuming Munster beat Racing in Thomond, then the max Racing could have would be 18 (12 pts + 5 against Sarries + LBP against Munster), and 17 would be a more likely number, i.e. not in contention.

If Saracens got no match points at all against Racing (unlikely) and four tries at home to Embra (very likely), they'd be on 19. If they get a LBP against Racing, they'd be on 20 and way ahead of Leinster on tries scored.

So, come on Racing!

Riskymove

Leinster

.ak wrote: »

If that happened would it increase Leinster's chances of qualifying?

only if Sarries failed to get a bonus point if losing to Racing, they would have 19 points and Leinster might get 20

if it comes down to level points Leinster lack of tries would hurt them (unless they score a bucketload in next two games)

DeDoc

Good work Thomond!

Some comments:

Pool 1
Irrespective of what happens in the Racing-Sarries game, both teams are still in it come the last week. Racings efforts this week would suggest that they may actually be serious about qualifying. However, their position in the T14(9th) and the fact that they have Toulon and Castres away before rounds 5 & 6 of the HEC makes me wonder. Agree with you that the likely outcome is Sarries on 23 and Munster on 19/20.

Pool 2
I'm not convinced by Tigers. Ospreys have had a horrible run of injuries and could have a number of players (notably Adam Jones who didn't play the first game) back. I don't think they'll qualify, but I think they can (and probably will) sneak this game. Tigers will not get 5 points either way, and I think the most likely scenario is Toulouse coming to Welford Road in round 6 with 18 points. I reckon Toulouse will finish on 22 with Ospreys sneaking second on 17 points.

Pool 3
Biarritz can't qualify and play Toulouse away on the Thursday after the last round of games. I think therefore that Quins will get at least 9 if not 10 points and will finish on 28/29. None of the other teams here will be in contention for qualifying.

Pool 4
Like you, I don't fancy Saints to get 10 points from the remaining two games. I think they'll do very well to even get 8. My suspicion is that Castres will arrive in Northampton with a bit of momentum built over Christmas and be competitive, but (unless they sneak a win) not be too pushed against Ulster. I think Ulster will get 9 to finish on 24 points with Saints in second with somewhere in the 15-18 points bracket.

Pool 5
Clermont really impressed me this weekend just gone and with the opportunity there I think they'll get at least 9 points if not 10 in the last games. Scarlets are gone and I think Leinster can and will get 5 points there. Chiefs will be gone by the time Leinster visit. They have a tough Christmas period with Gloucester, Saints and Bath, but they have a couple of weeks off after the Leinster game. With a full squad Leinster are capable of getting 5, but it is a long shot. I figure they'll finish on 19 points.

Pool 6
Sale are pretty weak, but their Christmas fixture list with Worcester at home and Sarries away is better than Montpelliers - Clermont and Perpignan away and Stade Francais at home. Toulons fixture list is very kind - with Mont-de-Marsan as their away game after round 6. I think we'll see Toulon keep the momentum and get 9 points to finish on 27. I'm not convinced Montpellier will have a real focus on the HEC and a couple of bonus points is what I suspect they'll get, to finish on 15 points. I certainly can't see them getting a 5 pointer, so 18 points at the outside

My predictions
Quins(28/29)
Clermont (28)
Toulon (27)
Ulster (24)
Sarries (23)
Toulouse (22)
Munster (19/20)
Leinster (19)

Home sides favourites for all those games, but all bar Munster would have realistic chances of winning.

Ospreys, Saints and one of Biarritz/Montpellier to make the Amlin

ssaye

DeDoc wrote: »

Good work Thomond!

Some comments:

Pool 1
Irrespective of what happens in the Racing-Sarries game, both teams are still in it come the last week. Racings efforts this week would suggest that they may actually be serious about qualifying. However, their position in the T14(9th) and the fact that they have Toulon and Castres away before rounds 5 & 6 of the HEC makes me wonder. Agree with you that the likely outcome is Sarries on 23 and Munster on 19/20.

Pool 2
I'm not convinced by Tigers. Ospreys have had a horrible run of injuries and could have a number of players (notably Adam Jones who didn't play the first game) back. I don't think they'll qualify, but I think they can (and probably will) sneak this game. Tigers will not get 5 points either way, and I think the most likely scenario is Toulouse coming to Welford Road in round 6 with 18 points. I reckon Toulouse will finish on 22 with Ospreys sneaking second on 17 points.

Pool 3
Biarritz can't qualify and play Toulouse away on the Thursday after the last round of games. I think therefore that Quins will get at least 9 if not 10 points and will finish on 28/29. None of the other teams here will be in contention for qualifying.

Pool 4
Like you, I don't fancy Saints to get 10 points from the remaining two games. I think they'll do very well to even get 8. My suspicion is that Castres will arrive in Northampton with a bit of momentum built over Christmas and be competitive, but (unless they sneak a win) not be too pushed against Ulster. I think Ulster will get 9 to finish on 24 points with Saints in second with somewhere in the 15-18 points bracket.

Pool 5
Clermont really impressed me this weekend just gone and with the opportunity there I think they'll get at least 9 points if not 10 in the last games. Scarlets are gone and I think Leinster can and will get 5 points there. Chiefs will be gone by the time Leinster visit. They have a tough Christmas period with Gloucester, Saints and Bath, but they have a couple of weeks off after the Leinster game. With a full squad Leinster are capable of getting 5, but it is a long shot. I figure they'll finish on 19 points.

Pool 6
Sale are pretty weak, but their Christmas fixture list with Worcester at home and Sarries away is better than Montpelliers - Clermont and Perpignan away and Stade Francais at home. Toulons fixture list is very kind - with Mont-de-Marsan as their away game after round 6. I think we'll see Toulon keep the momentum and get 9 points to finish on 27. I'm not convinced Montpellier will have a real focus on the HEC and a couple of bonus points is what I suspect they'll get, to finish on 15 points. I certainly can't see them getting a 5 pointer, so 18 points at the outside

My predictions
Quins(28/29)
Clermont (28)
Toulon (27)
Ulster (24)
Sarries (23)
Toulouse (22)
Munster (19/20)
Leinster (19)

Home sides favourites for all those games, but all bar Munster would have realistic chances of winning.

Ospreys, Saints and one of Biarritz/Montpellier to make the Amlin

If that happened Leinster would have gotten the easiest away game of them all and Munster would be so pissed with away to Clermont.

who_me

totallegend wrote: »

Possibly; assuming Munster beat Racing in Thomond, then the max Racing could have would be 18 (12 pts + 5 against Sarries + LBP against Munster), and 17 would be a more likely number, i.e. not in contention.

If Saracens got no match points at all against Racing (unlikely) and four tries at home to Embra (very likely), they'd be on 19. If they get a LBP against Racing, they'd be on 20 and way ahead of Leinster on tries scored.

So, come on Racing!

Racing could finish on 19: 12 + 5 (win & try bonus point vs Sarries) + 2 (try & losing bonus points against Munster) </pedant mode>

But Racing don't look like a side that'll score a lot of tries, especially given how tight the Saracens & Munster defences have been.

[Jackass]

Leinster

ssaye wrote: »

If that happened Leinster would have gotten the easiest away game of them all and Munster would be so pissed with away to Clermont.

Fingers crossed so! :pac:

Digifriendly

ssaye wrote: »

If that happened Leinster would have gotten the easiest away game of them all and Munster would be so pissed with away to Clermont.

Would 'Quins away be easier than Ulster away?

.ak

Leinster

Digifriendly wrote: »

Would 'Quins away be easier than Ulster away?

Yes. Well, we'll have a good idea by Friday evening.

justsomebloke

If Leinster get into the QFs and get some key players back I think they have to be favourites against most of the teams even with an away draw.

Quins are at a massive disadvantage though as they haven't had a real test yet in the competition and could easily be on the wrong end of an upset in the quarters

tolosenc

Toulon

DeDoc wrote: »

Pool 6
Sale are pretty weak, but their Christmas fixture list with Worcester at home and Sarries away is better than Montpelliers - Clermont and Perpignan away and Stade Francais at home. Toulons fixture list is very kind - with Mont-de-Marsan as their away game after round 6. I think we'll see Toulon keep the momentum and get 9 points to finish on 27. I'm not convinced Montpellier will have a real focus on the HEC and a couple of bonus points is what I suspect they'll get, to finish on 15 points. I certainly can't see them getting a 5 pointer, so 18 points at the outside

Yeah, I think the suggestion that Toulon won't be arsed about the Montpellier game is a bit daft. Winning it is potentially the difference between a home QF and an away one. I think if they try, they will beat Montpellier. I would suspect that it will be two from Munster/Sarries, Leinster, Northampton.

tolosenc

Toulon

justsomebloke wrote: »

If Leinster get into the QFs and get some key players back I think they have to be favourites against most of the teams even with an away draw.

Quins are at a massive disadvantage though as they haven't had a real test yet in the competition and could easily be on the wrong end of an upset in the quarters

I think writing Leinster off because an injury ravaged team lost to Clermont is not the mistake O'Shea would make.

That said, a full force Leinster should win in The Stoop. A home semi draw after that and it could be three in a row! :pac:

Fireball07

Leinster

Personally, I think Montpellier will definitely get through as 2nd seeds. Can't see them losing to Sale.

justsomebloke

Fireball07 wrote: »

Personally, I think Montpellier will definitely get through as 2nd seeds. Can't see them losing to Sale.

Unfortunately I couldn't see the half time minis losing to sale at the moment

CatFromHue

Toulon

Did anyone see the Toulon Sale game?

Mitchell said: "Some of the characters have been revealed and I don't have a lot of choice in some positions. But we don't have any regrets - we got what we deserved. Toulon were exceptional.

"All the defensive work we did in the first half took its toll. We were there for 35 minutes but we gave them two soft tries through the same channel and unfortunately against a side like Toulon you can't afford to do that.

Then looking at the stats Cipriani was 8/6 for tackles.

Also other than the full back Buckley made the most meters for Sale, 46!

errlloyd

Leinster

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGijwfHP7q0

Thats the tries, so pretty much the whole second half.

CatFromHue

Toulon

Wow Toulon had 4 not given/disallowed tries in the first half!

.ak

Leinster

errlloyd wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGijwfHP7q0

Thats the tries, so pretty much the whole second half.

Some lovely !tackling there from Sale.

irishbucsfan

Leinster

It was a very tough week for Sale let's not forget, I'd imagine a few of those guys were emotionally drained going out there.

CatFromHue

Toulon

.ak wrote: »

Some lovely !tackling there from Sale.

You almost wonder why Toulon didn't score more!

For the last try they didn't need to kick the ball down the field.