Tips Idea?

tacofries

Right, this might be complete stupidity or maybe there's a bit of sense to it, so just read the whole post and see what you think..

Before we start ,I am working on the assumption that bookmakers and their actuaries know more about potential winners than we do...Would I be right in thinking this?

Imagine it's grand national day. You pick all reasonable outsiders(not unrealistic outsiders) and you ring up separate betting companies asking to place a very large bet on a certain horse. The bookmaker either declines or accepts your bet, right? If they decline your bet, does this mean they believe that you can make a lot of money(profit) on the horse you wanted to bet on? Do this for a number of bookmakers and horses and see if a trend appears, showing 1 horse in particular that the bookies will not accept the bet on!

Does that then leave you with a reasonable enough idea of who the bookies honestly think will do well in the race (i.e. unlike the odds of horses which can sometimes be made higher or lower to favour bookies)?

Well, what do you think?

realdanbreen

What do you regard as a 'very large bet' ?
Most of the bookmaker chains will accept large bets.They would be more concerned about who the punter was.

tacofries

I couldnt give a figure but a large bet would be one that is big enough to make the bookmakrr turn down the offer if they thought the horse would/has a good chance of winning !!?