Thursday 29th November

UrbanSea

From what I posted last week before the meeting was off:

Bit annoyed that there's no price up at the minute. 16/1 was around last time and was a big price. Hopefully similar will show up tomorrow though I'm not convinved it will

Jolily 2.45 Thurles

A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going. He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse. The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. The horse clearly likes it around here, and the step back to 2 and 3 quarter miles shouldn't inconvenience him tomorrow. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again here at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off tomorrow's mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day. Considering the ground which would have been plenty quick for him that day and the short trip, I can see him running a big race tomorrow at his favoured track over a trip that suits him, even if he is ten pounds higher than his second in the race last year.

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

From what I posted last week before the meeting was off:

Bit annoyed that there's no price up at the minute. 16/1 was around last time and was a big price. Hopefully similar will show up tomorrow though I'm not convinved it will

Jolily 2.45 Thurles

A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going. He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse. The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. The horse clearly likes it around here, and the step back to 2 and 3 quarter miles shouldn't inconvenience him tomorrow. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again here at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off tomorrow's mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day. Considering the ground which would have been plenty quick for him that day and the short trip, I can see him running a big race tomorrow at his favoured track over a trip that suits him, even if he is ten pounds higher than his second in the race last year.

I remember liking this the last day when meeting was abandoned. As I said the last time, I'd be very concerned about Saoirse Dun who won going away on handicap debut foiling a big gamble from Francis Flood's Lascalahall and that one should improve for the step up in trip again. If Saoirse Dun opens favourite, I'd definitely recommend taking Jolily W/O Fav as that rival could prove extremely hard to beat.

Lovely write up US

rossom

3.55 Taunton

Buxom 4/1

I don't usually put up too many at this price but I think Jamie Snowden's 5 year old could be absolutely thrown in on her handicap debut off a mark of 108 and I'll be very, very surprised if she doesn't prove to be better than her mark. Formerly with Oliver Sherwood, Buxom showed some very useful form in bumpers as she won both her first two career starts in good fashion (the latter under a penalty in game battling fashion with the front two pulling 20L clear). In the 2nd bumper, the runner up Whichever has shown some nice form over hurdles including when finishing a 11L beaten 4th behind the talented Baby Shine (2nd and 3rd rated 124 and 116 respectively) and she followed that up with an very good 2nd behind the excellent Tante Sissi. Buxom had two more runs for Oliver Sherwood - both in Listed Bumpers - where she ran with great credit on the first occasion running out a very nice 5th. After this, she joined Jamie Snowden where she has had two starts over hurdles - the first being a very eventful affair indeed!On the back of a 6 month absence, Buxom was sent off an odds on shot for her hurdling debut in what looks a pretty moderate affair in what turned out to be a very eventful affair. Turning in for home, Buxom looked as if she was going to go away and score in fine fashion by a distance but then she saw the entrance to the paddock which resulted in her jumping markedly left handed at her final two flights as she threw away the race to go down by 1L. She probably forfeited about 15L with her antics that day and what looked as if it was going to be an impressive winning debut over hurdles turned out to be a bit of a shambolic performance from her.

This mare has had one start since her hurdling debut when finishing 3rd in what I think will turn out to be a very hot novice hurdle in time. That day she hurdling debutants Call Me A Star and Eleven Fifty Nine who had both won a Listed Bumper and look rather exciting prospects over hurdles. Under the guidance of tomorrow's jockey Tom O'Brien, Buxom took up the running after 5 out but as soon as the aforementioned rivals pulled up alongside her O'Brien did not try to with the and allowed her to come home in her own time as she finished 22L behind the leading pair and clear of the remainder of the field. Buxom showed no quirks that day which leads me to believe her attempted dash for the paddock was a once off. She's now qualified for a handicap mark and based on her bumper form and what would have been a very nice introduction over hurdles I think she has been assigned a very lenient handicap mark of 108 and I will be very surprised if she isn't good enough to defy this mark. In addittion, Jamie Snowden has stated that "We think an awful lot of this mare, as she has been working extremely well at home, and I do think she has a very bright future" which certainly is encouraging and backs up her form and my opinion of her. I wish I had got some of the 6s available as I would have had a very large e/w on her as I can't see her out of the first 3. In this Class 4 Mares Handicap Hurdle, I think if Buxom jumps round clearly then she will take an awful lot of beating and it wouldn't surprise me if she absolutely annihilated this field on her handicap debut.

rossom

3.25 Taunton

For The Staff 15/8

I will be truly amazed if this gets beaten tomorrow. A scorer in 2 points in the spring, For The Staff ran a lovely race LTO when finishing 2nd behind a resurgent Tom George horse in the shape of Desperate Dex on the back of an 8 month absence. Trainer Jackie Du Plessis said he'd come on a lot for the run and he jumped immaculately and travelled beautifully before tiring late on. Insanely, the handicapper has dropped him 6lb for that effort and he now gets into a 0-100 Chase. You will very, very rarely see me say this but I've gone in big time on this and I think he'll start odds on tomorrow. If he wins in a canter by 20L I will not be surprised in the slightest. If he doesn't win and you've gone in big I'm sorry but I will be there wallowing in the same pain as you.

Johner

Really like Mae's Choice tomorrow in the first at Thurles. Been waiting for this one to go chasing, very useful over hurdles winning the Grade 3 mares race at Punchestown back in April on heavy ground. Was very impressed with how she finished that race in the testing ground. I remember the interview with Elliot that day and he said ideally she will want 3 miles and a fence. What she did over hurdles was a bonus as she was a point to point winner and chasing was always going to be the plan. Tomorrow's trip of 2mile 2f shouldnt be a problem as it will be heavy ground and very testing conditions. Would be very happy with forecast price of 11/4 but think she will be a shorter price.

sonnky

I'd love to see Forpadydeplasterer win tomorrow! Always had a soft spot for hin. Don't Tell De Purty also a good e/w bet in first time tongue tie, off 2lbs higher than his last winning mark! Sword Fish is out for a h\c mark I'd imagine and Plan A might be too. Plan A's race could turn out to be a good race.

SRFC

sonnky wrote: »

I'd love to see Forpadydeplasterer win tomorrow! Always had a soft spot for hin. Don't Tell De Purty also a good e/w bet in first time tongue tie, off 2lbs higher than his last winning mark! Sword Fish is out for a h\c mark I'd imagine and Plan A might be too. Plan A's race could turn out to be a good race.

The McManus two are 100% handicap good things in the making once the handbrake is off

sting60

SEANIE Friday night Hugh NAP.

rossom

sting60 wrote: »

SEANIE Friday night Hugh NAP.

Hugh Taylor or huge? He needs a mark of 95 to make it to Meydan (96 on turf, 94 AW) He'll need to go up 1lb to make it for the AW over there so he's going to need to run a big race to get it - big tip in itself and I'll definitely be on.

ste2010

sonnky wrote: »

I'd love to see Forpadydeplasterer win tomorrow! Always had a soft spot for hin. Don't Tell De Purty also a good e/w bet in first time tongue tie, off 2lbs higher than his last winning mark! Sword Fish is out for a h\c mark I'd imagine and Plan A might be too. Plan A's race could turn out to be a good race.

I'd love to see forpady win too but I don't think he'll get the trip. I fancy Allee Garde in this one

rossom

1.05 Taunton

Cool George 7/1

Completely forgot about this horse until I stumbled across it now and I think 7/1 looks huge on his hurdling debut and if this was for one of the big named trainers I think he'd be an even money shot. Jackie Du Plessis's 4 year old made a long lasting impression in my eyes when absolutely sauntering to victory on the bridle by 9L on debut when sent off a 33/1 shot in a bumper at Exeter on New Years Day in testing conditions. The form of that race has worked out very nicely with the 2nd Umadacher franking that form massively by winning his next bumper before running two almighty races in Listed Bumpers at Sandown and Aintree to finish 2nd and 3rd respectively and has since gone on to win a maiden hurdle. Considering he absolutely blew that rival away then Jackie Du Plessis must have some horse on her hands. Cool George has had one start since then in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham where he reportedly lost his action and pulled up and naturally you have to forgive that effort. I was so impressed with his debut effort that I backed him for the Champion Bumper and he looks a really exciting hurdling prospect. He's been off the track since March but he was certainly wound up for his debut so the absence doesn't concern me. Although its impossible to know how he's schooled, his bumper form is head and shoulders above anything else in this race and he looks by far the best horse on paper of those that have raced. He looked a serious, serious horse on debut and if he's anywhere near as good over hurdles he could make this average enough looking novice hurdle a procession.

sting60

rossom wrote: »

Hugh Taylor or huge? He needs a mark of 95 to make it to Meydan (96 on turf, 94 AW) He'll need to go up 1lb to make it for the AW over there so he's going to need to run a big race to get it - big tip in itself and I'll definitely be on.

Hugh NAP.Marnane told me he would win in Leopardstown just beaten by Lilys Angel who has won twice since and one of those wins was a listed race.He required a 7lb penalty to get into a valuable handicap at the Dubai carnival.He has to win Friday night or he stays at home.I put this up on another site last week when I got the message.Lets hope he gets a decent draw as he is a come from behind horse.I lost big time at the Curragh 16/1[ran flat] and Leopardstown 12/1 [ran a blinder].He wont be a big price but I will be there to invest.

UrbanSea

Looks like he's staying at home he isn't declared. Just backed Jolily at 16/1

Howjoe1

UrbanSea wrote: »

Looks like he's staying at home he isn't declared. Just backed Jolily at 16/1

cheers..i just spent half an hour trying to find a horse called Hugh or Huge:o

BlueBaron

UrbanSea wrote: »

From what I posted last week before the meeting was off:

Bit annoyed that there's no price up at the minute. 16/1 was around last time and was a big price. Hopefully similar will show up tomorrow though I'm not convinved it will

Jolily 2.45 Thurles

A winning pointer who unsurprisingly didn't show a whole lot in three novice chases toward the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, he revealed himself to be a new proposition switched to handicaps. His first run in a handicap came in this very race last year off a mark of 97 on similarly testing going. He improved on all known form that day to finish second to the in form Miss Pepperpot, beaten two lengths. She has since proved herself to be a decent mare, winning that race off a mark of 103, before being second off 108 and last time out was placed off a mark of 116. Third horse that day who finished three lengths behind Jolily did seem to go a little backward but did win a handicap chase at Navan in March off the same mark. Looking a little further back, the form of the race looks fairly solid, given The Book Thief has since been placed and was beaten only eight lengths by Raz De Maree in a novice.

Jolily ran a brilliant race next time out again at Thurles on heavy going over three miles. Racing off the same mark ( it was only a week later) he was held up and made rapid headway to just go down to Supreme Builder by a half a length, finishing nearly 40 lengths clear of the third horse Cochise. He looked like he was sure to be the winner that day having touch 1.26 in running, but he lost nothing in defeat, and two hard races in a week on that going is enough for any horse. The form of that race is pretty weak, however. He did win next time out, again at Thurles over 3 miles on very testing going,off a mark of 107, confirming superiority over Cochise, beating him only two lengths this time, but the pair were a dozen lengths clear of the remainder. The horse clearly likes it around here, and the step back to 2 and 3 quarter miles shouldn't inconvenience him tomorrow. After his Thurles win his form figures of 9PU5 don't look too promising, but next time out at Limerick as the 9/2 fav he was found to be ''clincally abnormal post race'' and returned over a month later at Navan, but disappointed and was pulled up. I'm not quite sure what to make of that run but it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblity that he still hadn't recovered from his Limerick excursions but that's mere speculation.

Made an uncharacteristic mistake on his seasonal return again here at Thurles at the end of October, only making it as far as the second fence before unseating Martin Burke. However, his run last time out here left me with the utmost in confidence that he retains his ability. Running off tomorrow's mark of 107, he finished 5th of 13 runners(beaten only around seven lengths) over what seems too short a trip of 2 and a quarter miles on what was only yielding to soft ground and was also hampered three out that day. Considering the ground which would have been plenty quick for him that day and the short trip, I can see him running a big race tomorrow at his favoured track over a trip that suits him, even if he is ten pounds higher than his second in the race last year.

Followed you in with this one Urban, good luck!

UrbanSea

Here's hoping

rossom

Unlucky with Jolily US. Don't think he was going to win but I think he would have been involved in the mix for the places.

rossom wrote: »

I remember liking this the last day when meeting was abandoned. As I said the last time, I'd be very concerned about Saoirse Dun who won going away on handicap debut foiling a big gamble from Francis Flood's Lascalahall and that one should improve for the step up in trip again. If Saoirse Dun opens favourite, I'd definitely recommend taking Jolily W/O Fav as that rival could prove extremely hard to beat.

Lovely write up US

Not at all surprised there. Think you can upgrade that performance a **** load as well as Saoirse Dun probably went an extra 3f as Paul Townend had her so wide all the way round.

UrbanSea

What happened rossom, I'm on a ****ey train so just had the BF prices up. Went about 3/1 in running then went out to 120 within a few seconds.

Raging thought he had a good chance

BlueBaron

UrbanSea wrote: »

What happened rossom, I'm on a ****ey train so just had the BF prices up. Went about 3/1 in running then went out to 120 within a few seconds.

Raging thought he had a good chance

Was doing the very same thing Urban, taught we were on a winner!

Predalien

Was running well and starting to make up a few places when brought down at the third last I think.

Slattsy

Thanks to Rossom's pointer on Saoirse Dun via US write up.... i doubled up with For The Staff.

So here's hoping im onto a weener now.

BQQ

rossom wrote: »

I remember liking this the last day when meeting was abandoned. As I said the last time, I'd be very concerned about Saoirse Dun who won going away on handicap debut foiling a big gamble from Francis Flood's Lascalahall and that one should improve for the step up in trip again.

Lascalahall runs in the next race. Compensation awaits.

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

What happened rossom, I'm on a ****ey train so just had the BF prices up. Went about 3/1 in running then went out to 120 within a few seconds.

Raging thought he had a good chance

Absolute insanity he went to 3s in running! Saoirse Dun looked the likeliest winner throughout. Closest he got to the lead was about 6L off the front. My viewing of him was that he was just starting to get pushed along and would have probably placed. Wouldn't give up on him yet.

rossom

Ouch that hurt.

UrbanSea

Unlucky rossom-plenty more winners to come.


For the thousandth time I still don't know why people do doubles. Last time I did a double was 3 November 2010 when Mastery dead heated at Kempton

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Unlucky rossom-plenty more winners to come.


For the thousandth time I still don't know why people do doubles. Last time I did a double was 3 November 2010 when Mastery dead heated at Kempton

What I lost on the double would have been 10 times more had I backed an Evens favourite on its own.
Quite simple.

Love a good double and the odd treble.

rossom

Am I allowed to be very annoyed at Tom O'Brien there? Sums up my day.

UrbanSea

But you would still have the same amount of money.

The difference being after the first bet you could have taken out the original stake had you wanted to to ensure you didn't lose anything. There is zero benefit to doing doubles over two consecutive singles, at least then you'd be gauranteed price, first past the post and dead heat full stake.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

But you would still have the same amount of money.

The difference being after the first bet you could have taken out the original stake had you wanted to to ensure you didn't lose anything. There is zero benefit to doing doubles over two consecutive singles, at least then you'd be gauranteed price, first past the post and dead heat full stake.

Not at all.

If you can find the right horses for a double it easy money.

Goldcupfav

rossom wrote: »

Am I allowed to be very annoyed at Tom O'Brien there? Sums up my day.

How can you not be was a shocker of a ride.

ste2010

UrbanSea wrote: »

But you would still have the same amount of money.

The difference being after the first bet you could have taken out the original stake had you wanted to to ensure you didn't lose anything.

Your missing the point urban! It's a more disciplined approach to gambling :-D
It's either on or it's not..the dinner is ready or it's tea time..it's either sunny or it's raining....no prisoners here..you back 20 euro that becomes 100 an all of a sudden you have 100 (with no choice of backing down) going on diamond Harry in the Hennessy ...you'd never be that brave if the money was in your hands ...why shoot for points when you an score goals ;-)
I take your point on trebles and up..I was sitting on 500euro going on a tip from the tips thread on a horse I never heard o in Wolverhampton a few weeks back...it was the last leg of a 5 fold. It lost and I got sick..
Mind you I have had a treble 3 out of 4 weeks now ..varying selections to cover myself..still backing singles aswell though

3ndahalfof6

ste2010 wrote: »

Your missing the point urban! It's a more disciplined approach to gambling :-D
It's either on or it's not..the dinner is ready or it's tea time..it's either sunny or it's raining....no prisoners here..you back 20 euro that becomes 100 an all of a sudden you have 100 (with no choice of backing down) going on diamond Harry in the Hennessy ...you'd never be that brave if the money was in your hands ...why shoot for points when you an score goals ;-)
I take your point on trebles and up..I was sitting on 500euro going on a tip from the tips thread on a horse I never heard o in Wolverhampton a few weeks back...it was the last leg of a 5 fold.
Mind you I have had a treble 3 out of 4 weeks now ..varying selections to cover myself..still backing singles aswell though

I take no responsibility for this.

NaiveMelodies

rossom wrote: »

Am I allowed to be very annoyed at Tom O'Brien there? Sums up my day.

I'd be really pissed off, I wonder if he had his homework done, the winner won over 2m4f LTO, with this info he shouldn't be taking chances that the horse would come back to him. Poorly judged ride.

MoscowFlyer

That was a big gamble landed in the last at Kempton. 9s into 3s and led from start to finish. Irish horse that just changed hands to an English trainer.